Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

Decided to set up a $25 daily recurring buy at Gemini, until I get bored after 'doing enough of that for a while', or run out of money - whichever comes first.

Let's see how this bold strategy plays out.

Might work better as selling a few weeks back 


Though I understand the decision as it’s just a % of the stash

[Alexander_Z]

Yes... perhaps you do not NOT know nuttin.

But still... something seems to be off by your perspective, including if you thought that there were boring periods in BTC's life.

I don't really know about 2011 through personal experience, but I was watching the bitcoin space since late 2013, and surely, I found it quite interesting, even between late 2013 and 2016..  I mean if you really think about bitcoin, it is a paradigm shifting invention.. that is quite amazing every 10 minutes that it pumps out another block, and ongoingly there have been new businesses coming and going in bitcoin and some of them successfully evolving, too..  so I am having some difficulties relating to your finding bitcoin to be boring perspective.

Certainly it is an interesting technological invention, potentially capable of replacing gold (at least partially) as reserve and investment. A bit too late, although. Until 2017 I thought it would remain an insignificant curiosity, but since then I am sure it is going to stay for decades. But, it does not mean that bitcoin can make another 10x increase.

Part of my point is not just $20k by itself, but how the BTC price got to nearly $20k from around $10k in early September.

BTC prices pretty much doubled and broke through at least three resistance points in the $12,500 arena, $13,880 and $17,250, and you seem to want to focus upon the fact that it did not quite make it above some kind of symbolic (or maybe self-selected point) of $20k, when it just got into the region in the past week or so?  You are either disingenuous or a troll to be focusing on such nonsense and trying to make some kind of supposedly meaningful bearish point out of it.

Breaking through anything below $20k is nothing new, we have seen it before. It is somewhat amusing that here "bearish" means "not expecting huge increase". I am bullish in the long run, the difference is that in my case "bullish" may mean average price doubling every four years (shorter term fluctuations are definitely going to be stronger).

Yes.. even you are admitting that the possibility is slight.

And, we should acknowledge that anything is possible, but I don't arrange my financial life around the slight possibilities.. I arrange my life around more likely possibilities..

Hopefully, you are doing the same.. though you seem to be having trouble recognizing where we are at, exactly... in regards to bitcoinlandia.. and appreciating where we are at.. and perhaps your lack of appreciation has to do with your failure/refusal to either stack enough coins or selling too many coins too soon.

I did not sell a single satoshi from my main stash, cold storage since late 2017. However, I do not expect 10x gains anymore.

Bitcoin does not need widespread institutional adoption to go above $50k.. but widespread institutional adoption may well bring BTC prices above $1million by the end of 2025-ish... 2024 is 4 years from now.. you should be looking at the end of 2021 and the end of 2025.. don't you know nuttin?

There is one problem: mining. Satoshi Nakamoto (whoever he was) once said (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57.msg415#msg415) that "the price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost" and "in later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around". I agree. Later years are still very far away. Widespread institutional adoption may shift the balance, but without it the price will gravitate toward the mining cost, that is low tens of thousands, for years to come.

[El duderino_]

I did not sell a single satoshi from my main stash, cold storage since late 2017. However, I do not expect 10x gains anymore.

Though if you didn't expect 10 X gains from BTC, then I don't know why you're involved ??

[Alexander_Z]

I did not sell a single satoshi from my main stash, cold storage since late 2017. However, I do not expect 10x gains anymore.

Though if you didn't expect 10 X gains from BTC, then I don't know why you're involved ??

2x gain in a few years is still much better than few % a savings account can give. As I have said, I am bullish, but linearly, not exponentially . Unfortunately, my stash is not big enough to retire and live comfortably by spending from it only. Still, there is a slight chance that institutional adoption could drive the price another 10x. My thought is that it is not very likely.

P.S. By not expecting 10x I mean 10x from the current (or $10k) level. 10x from the lowest point in 2018 is possible.

[600watt]

so the answer to the covid economic shock should be

-let all th small businesses die?
-let all the folks who lost their job starve?


money is printed in record numbers but it does not get where it helps people in emergency economic situation, it only goes to the banks/crony capitalists. the rising inequality is mainly due to unfair taxation, wages stagnating for decades, while cost of living rising every month.

if helping people out of an emergency that crony capitalism has created is communism, well then I guess I'm a commie. 


UBI is coming within this decade, and it will be a good thing for bitcoin.

[Karartma1]

Decided to set up a $25 daily recurring buy at Gemini, until I get bored after 'doing enough of that for a while', or run out of money - whichever comes first.

Let's see how this bold strategy plays out.

Might work better as selling a few weeks back 


Though I understand the decision as it’s just a % of the stash

Hom much in fees Bob? Don't tell me is 25 plain and simple

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

I wonder what TERA is doing. I figured she'd be back when the bull started but probably made enough in the last two bubbles.

Why do people think TERA is a woman?  IIRC, there was just one forum member who started calling TERA a 'she', TERA never corrected (which I understand if you care about opsec), and everybody just started taking over this habit.  Not saying she cannot be a woman, but there is like zero indication about his/her gender.  If anything, I would think that traders that are early adopters of bitcoin have a higher likelihood of being male (though undoubtedly some women are also early adopters and/or trader).

[Phil_S]

so the answer to the covid economic shock should be

-let all th small businesses die?
-let all the folks who lost their job starve?


money is printed in record numbers but it does not get where it helps people in emergency economic situation, it only goes to the banks/crony capitalists. the rising inequality is mainly due to unfair taxation, wages stagnating for decades, while cost of living rising every month.

if helping people out of an emergency that crony capitalism has created is communism, well then I guess I'm a commie. 


UBI is coming within this decade, and it will be a good thing for bitcoin.

Somehow these people never mention forever-wars and over-inflated military budgets.

Not all types of spending are the same.

When regular people have no money to spend, economy stops.

[Toxic2040]

Completed another WDR and might try and do a 15km hop sometime over the next 48 hours. TFR in place. SN8 waiting to go.

courtesy of mary(@bocachicagal)


#dyor




#stronghands

[cAPSLOCK]

Sad trombone.

(A dip for ants...)

[UnDerDoG81]

Hahah funny how some can change his bullish mind when he wants to buy more corn... So I hope for a deeeep weekend dump and then back bullish...

[soullyG]

Completed another WDR and might try and do a 15km hop sometime over the next 48 hours. TFR in place. SN8 waiting to go.
... snip ...

#dyor

+2 WOsmerit

Flight has been delayed till Monday now

Bonus 352 megapixel closeup of Starship SN8:
https://twitter.com/thejackbeyer/status/1334697060973604866

Back to corn, I think we'll make another attempt at $20k this weekend, if we fail we are going to retest $16k or lower (don't see it going down to less than $15k though, we've had that as support since Nov 6th)

[Toxic2040]

Completed another WDR and might try and do a 15km hop sometime over the next 48 hours. TFR in place. SN8 waiting to go.
... snip ...

#dyor

+2 WOsmerit

Flight has been delayed till Monday now

Bonus 352 megapixel closeup of Starship SN8:
https://twitter.com/thejackbeyer/status/1334697060973604866

Back to corn, I think we'll make another attempt at $20k this weekend, if we fail we are going to retest $16k or lower (don't see it going down to less than $15k though, we've had that as support since Nov 6th)

+1 WOsMerit

[El duderino_]

Call in for WEEKEND-PUMP

[soullyG]

Call in for WEEKEND-PUMP

Seconded

[BobLawblaw]

Hom much in fees Bob? Don't tell me is 25 plain and simple

Why you gotta go and harsh my mellow like that ?

Is it to prod me into paying a little bit more to get an even $25 daily ? I mean, yeah, OK, after fees and all, it's not a clean $25, but it's better than a kick in the balls.

* BobLawblaw runs away from the thread, sobbing inconsolably

[soullyG]

#bitcoin stock-to-flow cross asset model
-if BTC doesn't break it's historical path
-BTC market cap will approach gold market value $5-10T in 2021-2024
-and approach real estate market value $10-100T in 2024-2028
-after 2028 we can no longer interpolate and enter uncharted waters

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1334834429177507844

[vapourminer]

i started mining in summer 2011, and yeah i thought fall/winter 2011 bitcoin was in a world of hurt. kept mining as the rigs heated my basement anyway.

2013-16 being boring? not boring really but i dont remember too much excitement either. i mean it was declared "dead" many more times too but after the 1st one i experienced in 2011 i was used to it i guess. no big deal.

As far as I understand, even in 2011 and 2013 to 2016, blocks continued to come out every 10 minutes.

Adoption continued to happen.  Development continued to happen.

So being bored might be an attempt to focus on only one aspect, which was whether BTC happened to be in a hype period.

"world of hurt" was my viewpoint at the time. many others seemed worried too.

of course there were blocks every 10 minutes (the protocol is the protocol) and development still happened. however at the end of 2011 the price was at the point where i was mining at a slight loss (compared to just buying btc, which i wasnt about to do at that point) even counting the heating aspect, and the drop from $35 to like $3 was the 1st time i read about the "death spiral" bit. i thought it might fail as a project. but i did folding@home for free for years, so supporting the bitcoin project by mining for free  was no different, as tthere was still the chance bitcoin might take off and be useful. money at that point was secondary to me. but for peeps that mined purely for money and as a business model it was surely different. and that mining model had to be profitable. sure looked to me at that point that aspect wasnt going so well. bitcoin wasnt in mainstream news then and exchanges seemed sketch af. mainstream mining was how to get the adoption curve up there, at least it seemed to me anyway.

mining and utility are different aspects of bitcoin. both are needed obviously, and both have different goals.

[d_eddie]

I wonder what TERA is doing. I figured she'd be back when the bull started but probably made enough in the last two bubbles.

Why do people think TERA is a woman?  IIRC, there was just one forum member who started calling TERA a 'she', TERA never corrected (which I understand if you care about opsec), and everybody just started taking over this habit.  Not saying she cannot be a woman, but there is like zero indication about his/her gender.  If anything, I would think that traders that are early adopters of bitcoin have a higher likelihood of being male (though undoubtedly some women are also early adopters and/or trader).

I think she referred to herself as a she. At least, she never contradicted anyone calling her 'she'. Not that it means much of course.

[El duderino_]

Call in for WEEKEND-PUMP

Seconded

Tripled