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Coinseeker
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May 07, 2013, 10:56:27 PM |
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the trend is reversing, expect a slow climb with some sharp drops and recoveries as the bears commit suicide, once prohond come on and says something like "wow price is kinda high, good time to sell a few" thats when you know all the bears are dead, and the cost is clear   |
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michaelGedi
Sr. Member
 Offline
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
"to be or not to be, that is the bitcoin"
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May 07, 2013, 11:01:59 PM |
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No decisive movement yet, eh? Alright then, summary time. (sorry for the sloppy style, this is more or less stream of consciousness)
Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)
(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent
(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.
(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.
(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)
(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)
(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.
(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5
pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.
/pseudoscience
6 could be pro bull no?... converging on 100, and next week is mid May 5 could change |
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zemario
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May 07, 2013, 11:05:53 PM |
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Almost no walls, price not diving nor sky rocketing for very long periods of time...
ATM this thread has no walls to track. This is cool, speculators might be heading up to other commodity.
We do however need more btc adoption in order to make it a good asset with some more stability than what it has now.
Could it possible cool its bursts and booms ans set with a growth of, say, 10%/month? That would be roughly a 2x fold by the end of the year. I for one would be happy with such outcome.
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oda.krell
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
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May 07, 2013, 11:08:53 PM |
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No decisive movement yet, eh? Alright then, summary time. (sorry for the sloppy style, this is more or less stream of consciousness)
Ignoring the possibility of continuation of the horizontal trend (that'd be boring), what are arguments in favor of continuation of the correction, i.e. downwards trend (red line in my previous chart) vs. continuation of upwards trend (green line)
(1) forum sentiment: cautiously bullish ("I'll buy for sure when we get lower") seems to be quite prevalent
(2) post bubble, volume on the way down was significantly higher than on the way up. suggests selling pressure, but could also mean sellers are running out of ammo.
(3) EMAs: D1, H4 undecided (just crossed over from above), H1 still bearish, but tendency towards crossover from below.
(4) total trading volume (in USD) is maybe on the low end for what is necessary to support the long-term upwards trend. (pointed out by WackyWilly)
(5) re: converging trendlines, as pointed out by 100x, me, and others: post-bubble, bit more evidence for the downward trend (3 vs 2 points of contact)
(6) If supporting trend (green line in my chart) = January 9 long-term expon. trend, then we're a bit ahead, should be hitting 100 only mid-May.
(7) order book (yes, I know, fake walls everywhere): total bid/total ask: 105. average of price if all sold at current prices, all bought at current prices: 120.5
pro bull: 1, 7
pro bear: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Hmmm... I don't like the way my own summary looks. My gut tells me we should be going up, but my little collection of evidence points to continuation of the correction.
/pseudoscience
6 could be pro bull no?... converging on 100, and next week is mid May 5 could change re: 6. sure, pretty weak point, only relevant right now where we're a bit ahead. re: 5. true. but, given current information, I'd say there's slightly more evidence for the downward trend than for the upwards one. none of the points is really strong individually. I'm as undecided as anyone else here seems to be :/ |
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fitty
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May 07, 2013, 11:09:09 PM |
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Almost no walls, price not diving nor sky rocketing for very long periods of time...
ATM this thread has no walls to track. This is cool, speculators might be heading up to other commodity.
We do however need more btc adoption in order to make it a good asset with some more stability than what it has now.
Could it possible cool its bursts and booms ans set with a growth of, say, 10%/month? That would be roughly a 2x fold by the end of the year. I for one would be happy with such outcome.
No walls? 1k at 110. 5k to 115, 15k to 120. They're not consolidated but there's a fuck load of asks out there between 110-120. For a $10 span it's well above average. |
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Coinseeker
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May 07, 2013, 11:12:41 PM |
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I think that's 2 for 2 on the day. $114.  |
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ronaldlee0917
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May 07, 2013, 11:12:55 PM |
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i saw that wall at 111 just retreated in time
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ineededausername
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May 07, 2013, 11:13:52 PM |
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I think it's important to realize that a floor can essentially be set at 50, simply because there is too much money in the system.
Consider a large holder of Bitcoin (a few of these exist). At least 5 of them will have sold >$1m each (if you don't believe this, let's say 50 with $100k) and still have some remaining while it was going up, or during the two bounces (to $200 and to $166). So that's $5m.
Bitcoin has never had $5m of bids at low prices (below 50) without going up. These major players will be able to put up bids well in excess of 100k BTC. And if by some calamitous event it reaches $20, there will be quite a few people who can form almost insurmountable bidwalls. We're talking 200k-300k BTC aggregate demand at such levels.
Too much money in the system. Bitcoin can't go so low.
This is very different from June 2011, when bids were so weak, a sale of 10k BTC could drop it >30% at the peak. This rally was well-supported by money coming into the system from big players who have a good understanding of fundamentals. At $30, the price can move from housewives who saw BTC on TV buying in. At $200, money necessarily comes from big players who have researched Bitcoin thoroughly, and who all have a long-term, rational view of Bitcoin.
The money in Gox/Bitstamp is larger in quantity than 2011, and different in nature. I think this is enough to conclude that a massive drop of 90% from peak is not in the cards. Then it's not so unreasonable to say that 80% from peak, or $50, is the floor.
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SAQ
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
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May 07, 2013, 11:15:44 PM |
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Almost no walls, price not diving nor sky rocketing for very long periods of time...
ATM this thread has no walls to track. This is cool, speculators might be heading up to other commodity.
We do however need more btc adoption in order to make it a good asset with some more stability than what it has now.
Could it possible cool its bursts and booms ans set with a growth of, say, 10%/month? That would be roughly a 2x fold by the end of the year. I for one would be happy with such outcome.
No walls? 1k at 110. 5k to 115, 15k to 120. They're not consolidated but there's a fuck load of asks out there between 110-120. For a $10 span it's well above average. 1k, 5k, even 10k seems a lot but this much is being sold and bought almost every hour now. |
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Frozenlock
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May 07, 2013, 11:28:52 PM |
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Nothing's happening.  |
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Dumbastronaut
Member
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Activity: 126
Merit: 16
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May 07, 2013, 11:30:13 PM |
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Nothing's happening. Shit's going down tonight |
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michaelGedi
Sr. Member
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Activity: 364
Merit: 250
"to be or not to be, that is the bitcoin"
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May 07, 2013, 11:31:49 PM |
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re: 6. sure, pretty weak point, only relevant right now where we're a bit ahead.
re: 5. true. but, given current information, I'd say there's slightly more evidence for the downward trend than for the upwards one.
none of the points is really strong individually. I'm as undecided as anyone else here seems to be :/ yeah I think I'm just emotionally attached to the idea of this triangle closing to a nice upwards trend... the TAs I've read on this forum are undecided between them. But the media stories and investment developments are slowly building, and I personally only expect positive news in the next month. I was talking to a bunch of bankers the other day, and heard some interesting anecdotes... at least some of the financial sector are paying attention. I think it's worth betting up... especially considering the amount of money that seems to be waiting for "cheap coins" ... there are only so many cheap coins and only so many times you can raise your fellow cheap coin waiters to outbid them. |
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dexX7
Legendary
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Activity: 1106
Merit: 1024
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May 07, 2013, 11:32:22 PM |
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What once was resistance, will become support they say.  |
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michaelGedi
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
"to be or not to be, that is the bitcoin"
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May 07, 2013, 11:33:11 PM |
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Frozenlock
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May 07, 2013, 11:35:00 PM |
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You should remake it with a log chart.
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SlipperySlope
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May 07, 2013, 11:37:46 PM |
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An update on the battle to determine the rate of bubble collapse.  |
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prophetx
Legendary
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Activity: 1666
Merit: 1010
he who has the gold makes the rules
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May 07, 2013, 11:39:52 PM |
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What once was resistance, will become support they say. So you are saying we will hit resistance at just above $120... and support is declining... |
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