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Question: Sept. 21 Closing Price:
$0 - 3 (3%)
<$8,000 - 5 (5%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 1 (1%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 2 (2%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 5 (5%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 6 (5.9%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 21 (20.8%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 20 (19.8%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 18 (17.8%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 6 (5.9%)
>$12,000 - 8 (7.9%)
>$20,000 - 6 (5.9%)
Total Voters: 101

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21374001 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (106 posts by 21 users deleted.)
Rampion
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May 07, 2013, 10:28:47 AM
 #5281

I meant a very bad sign pricewise. So you agree that it seems like we're going down?

No. Check out the hourly chart. The price is coiling for a spike to the upside.

We're going down. Bears are bringing in their weapons:

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May 07, 2013, 10:30:28 AM
 #5282

http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/thumblarge_373/1236712670wGv9B6.jpg
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May 07, 2013, 10:35:47 AM
 #5283

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May 07, 2013, 10:42:48 AM
 #5284

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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


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May 07, 2013, 10:44:40 AM
 #5285



  Hmmm, any similarities ...?

lol, that's a good one Cheesy

Though these example bubble charts also come in flavors Wink

But point taken!
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May 07, 2013, 10:45:31 AM
 #5286

So final capitulation is already behind us? That's great news! Cheesy
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May 07, 2013, 10:46:10 AM
 #5287

insider info: through only taking a piece of a chart and zooming in and out you can make any chart look like any other...
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May 07, 2013, 10:51:32 AM
 #5288

insider info: through only taking a piece of a chart and zooming in and out you can make any chart look like any other...

Oh hush your mouth - that's half the posts on this forum you are depreciating  Shocked
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May 07, 2013, 10:53:13 AM
 #5289

insider info: through only taking a piece of a chart and zooming in and out you can make any chart look like any other...

Oh hush your mouth - that's half the posts on this forum you are depreciating  Shocked

The trouble with charts like that is that they're fractal patterns, which as you say look similar at any level of zoom, much like a coastline does.  It's easy to see patterns that aren't really there, or to dismiss ones which are.
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May 07, 2013, 10:56:09 AM
 #5290



  Hmmm, any similarities ...?

it depends what time frame you use. Now look at the 6m charts.
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May 07, 2013, 10:57:55 AM
 #5291

Solex you are Bull? If you could buy $90 BTC right now by playing into an established downward trend would you?
(Hint: your answer is also the Market's answer)
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May 07, 2013, 10:59:17 AM
 #5292


it depends what time frame you use. Now look at the 6m charts.
So we are on the way to the "real bottom" now?
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May 07, 2013, 11:04:30 AM
 #5293

I grant you the bolded part. I think we all agree that long term Bitcoin will be huge - the truth is that we are all bullish about BTC at the end of the day, which is normal because this is bitcointalk.org

We just differ on short-term moves, on which is the top or bottom for the next few days, or weeks… I have to agree with you that it seems that we will not have such a pronounced decline as in 2011, and the recovery will also be faster. Heck, I even think that we won't go below $50 again - that's pretty bullish in my book, considering that in January we were below $20. I don't know if consolidation will be 2-3 months or 6 months, but it definitely doesn't looks like an entire year of decline + another full year for consolidation like we had after the burst of the 2011 bubble.

In 2011 a lot of people screamed "PONZI!!" and turned their backs to BTC. A lot of people thought Bitcoin was gone for good. It seems to me that now the mentality is much different: people knows Bitcoin is here to stay, and it's just a matter of WHEN the next growth cycle will start.

That's fucking deep, man.

Also, I tend to agree. What many people seem to forget when they talk about "fundamentals" vs. "market craze" is that, in the real world, there are two possibly outcomes wrt. bitcoin usage (I'm simplifying, in reality there's a near-continuum of outcomes, but follow my line of thought for a second): 1) bitcoin succeeds. 2) bitcoin fails.

If 2), our investment is toast anyway. But if 1), well, then at some point even the most bearish market participants will agree that it's being adopted, and will start buying, thus drivin the price up.

Now, we have no influence on the question if it'll be scenario 1) or 2) (another simplification. the whole thing is a feedback loop, so our market actions do actually influence fundamentals/adoption). So the only question to answer for us is how is the market sentiment now, and in the near future?. And I think you described it accurately: it's not so much that most people think "Damn, we're going down", or even "I hope we're not going down any further", but rather "Even if we go down, my long term conviction is we're going up, so I'm going to load up on coins at the lowest possible price.", or at most something like "I hope we're not going down *too* much, or recovery will take too long."

Let's say that's an accurate description of the market sentiment.  Then the price won't really have a chance to slide down in a slow trajectory like it did in 2011. Hit bottom a few more times? Maybe. Test 50 again? Sure, could happen. But any correction still necessary won't take place at such an indifferent speed like back then.
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1PwXK9TpmmaaqaZz2eqcLkPU2C1Fcva39G


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May 07, 2013, 11:07:12 AM
 #5294

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May 07, 2013, 11:08:24 AM
 #5295


it depends what time frame you use. Now look at the 6m charts.
So we are on the way to the "real bottom" now?

Euphoria last grasp
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May 07, 2013, 11:08:38 AM
 #5296

In a very bigger picture.. it's triangle time soon.

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May 07, 2013, 11:13:03 AM
 #5297

Solex you are Bull? If you could buy $90 BTC right now by playing into an established downward trend would you?
(Hint: your answer is also the Market's answer)

Your question is:what makes you think the downward trend is still in place?
The dip to 102 may be the closest it gets to 95 for a good while. It was not really that far away. The market might be remembering all the times traders were left waiting on the platform for the perfect entry point when the train was whistling away down the track...
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May 07, 2013, 11:23:22 AM
 #5298

Next break downwards imminent ...  Shocked
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May 07, 2013, 11:25:14 AM
 #5299

Solex you are Bull? If you could buy $90 BTC right now by playing into an established downward trend would you?
(Hint: your answer is also the Market's answer)

Your question is:what makes you think the downward trend is still in place?
The dip to 102 may be the closest it gets to 95 for a good while. It was not really that far away. The market might be remembering all the times traders were left waiting on the platform for the perfect entry point when the train was whistling away down the track...


It's a good point. If bitcoins were to break $100 downward I would probably sell everything. However at the same time, if bitcoins were to break $100 downward and I didn't catch it in time to sell everything, I would buying everything under $100. Hence I think we will hover around $100 for some time, any normal crash is driven by our greedy desire to outfox the the guy next to us and call the bottom. It's not really driven by any technical issues with bitcoin just as it rises back up one we get paranoid that the music has stopped and we won't get our coins back. Its like musical chairs, but with bitcoin. Every round you can either get more coins or lose coins.
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May 07, 2013, 11:27:18 AM
 #5300

Solex you are Bull? If you could buy $90 BTC right now by playing into an established downward trend would you?
(Hint: your answer is also the Market's answer)

Your question is:what makes you think the downward trend is still in place?
The dip to 102 may be the closest it gets to 95 for a good while. It was not really that far away. The market might be remembering all the times traders were left waiting on the platform for the perfect entry point when the train was whistling away down the track...


It's a good point. If bitcoins were to break $100 downward I would probably sell everything. However at the same time, if bitcoins were to break $100 downward and I didn't catch it in time to sell everything, I would buying everything under $100. Hence I think we will hover around $100 for some time, any normal crash is driven by our greedy desire to outfox the the guy next to us and call the bottom. It's not really driven by any technical issues with bitcoin just as it rises back up one we get paranoid that the music has stopped and we won't get our coins back. Its like musical chairs, but with bitcoin. Every round you can either get more coins or lose coins.

It's VERY likely that bitcoins will break $100 donward. Just check all the indicators. It will happen today, maybe tomorrow. I never sell BTC, even if we are going down (it hurts too much to lose them when you are mistaken), but I can guarantee you that I have a lot of bids from $96 all the way down to $32 (not that I hope that the lower ones will get filled, but a man can dream...)
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