Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rampion]

Bit boring watching the price right now.

There hardly seems to be any selling. The 124 is relentlessly being pursued. Quite a bit of resistance around 122. Little resistance around 124 - 125, just bears sitting there waiting to be eaten.

I think not much is going to change until late afternoon.

I say Wednesday is the day in which we will see where we are heading at.

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[SlipperySlope]

Stamp is date and time in unix time with with microsecond precision of the last change.

Oh, I figured the unix time thing. I just wasn't sure what it signifies.

A few months ago I wrote a Java websocket/socket.io client for Mt. Gox that processes the depth chart to explore my notions about depth and tick data. The ChartBuddy 3-D depth chart periodically posted here shows the time dimension like I wanted - so no point in going further. But I did learn enough about the Mt. Gox API to very deeply appreciate the cleverness employed by Clark Moody who ties together Mt. Gox trades and depth changes.

The Mt. Gox HTTP API allows the client to poll the server in order to obtain partial or the full depth list of bids and asks. Then its websocket/socket.io API allows the client to subscribe to trades, depth changes, and lag. Subsequently the client receives notification of depth changes, which is the change and new amount of the limit bid or ask orders at a certain price at a certain time, i.e. the time the limit order was issued/cancelled. What is crazy is that Mt. Gox drops the connection, or otherwise loses synchronization between the trades and the depth chart. Clark Moody's realtime charting app dynamically fixes all this up. Its not precise - but it is very satisfactory, by polling the server to replace the client depth info when it gets out of sync.

I can answer detailed protocol questions about the Mt. Gox API as regard to charting data, but not much at all regarding the trading functions.

[Richy_T]

Not difficult to parse. Only arbitrary.

The 260ies marked the on-trend inevitable climax (which had to happen somewhere, and happened to happen there) of of the trend, not an outlier of that trend.

Discarding the last, crucial day in favour of the day before (which was not an outlier? if so, why?) seems disingenous.

[...]

You are saying you can use any wick and/or candle, without your method providing guidance.

And proceed to arbitrarily discard any inconvenient data, after you've found a pattern you like.

It is this need to discard data you don't like for the pattern to hold that I find worrying.

In the Erisian Archives is an old memo from Omar to Mal-2: "I find the Law of Fives to be more and more manifest the harder I look."

[bixcoin]

BTW, what does everyone think the top will be before we dive downwards again?

I say 180

I say 150

[Multifarious]

[...] or leaves me with $220k funny money, and my remaining bitcoins valued at $300k/BTC in October, 2013.

Lol.  Go take an anti-delusion pill.

It should be obvious that anyone *really* believing the cruft you write wouldn't be selling, at any time, ever, for whatever reason.

Ergo, you don't believe this crap yourself.

I dunno, a ride up to 300k is gonna be a bumpy ride.

For 1btc to be worth $300k, it would mean that bitcoins has a market cap of 330 trillion dollars. That is, 330 trillion dollars would need to be spent in buying bitcoins. That is not going to happen. Not this year, not this decade, probably not even this century unless we get an American Zimbabwe.

So much bad math on this board.

3e5 * 1e7 = 3e12 = $3,000,000,000,000 = 3 trillion.

But I agree, in general, with the sentiment. I don't see the market cap of bitcoin being 3 trillion by the end of the year. I think we could see $10k, which is a market cap of ~$100 billion.

[SlipperySlope]

BTW, what does everyone think the top will be before we dive downwards again?

I say 180

I would feel even more confident about my bitcoin bubble assumptions if the price did not exceed $145 again before the final bottom.

[Richy_T]

So, you think the capitulation is over and we are on the way up?

Man, bulls turning bears and bears turning bulls, I'm really puzzled

Have you ever seen a medium perform where they're saying they hear a voice, it's Susan, maybe Sarah. She's your mother, no grandmother, maybe a childhood friend?

Gotta be able to turn on a dime in the prediction business.

[Rampion]

BTW, what does everyone think the top will be before we dive downwards again?

I say 180

I would feel even more confident about my bitcoin bubble assumptions if the price did not exceed $145 again before the final bottom.

I pretty much agree with you again. If we go again to $160 I would be puzzled. Heck, I think the normal thing would be not going over $125 before the final bottom.

[SlipperySlope]

Gotta be able to turn on a dime in the prediction business.

That just about sums up trend-following TA.

[phoenix1]

BTW, what does everyone think the top will be before we dive downwards again?

I say 180

I would feel even more confident about my bitcoin bubble assumptions if the price did not exceed $145 again before the final bottom.

I pretty much agree with you again. If we go again to $160 I would be puzzled. Heck, I think the normal thing would be not going over $125 before the final bottom.

I also like $125'ish for the top ... I just don't trust this rally at all and am not convinced it's got much more life in it

[Richy_T]

When traders say that bitcoin has passed from weak hands to strong ones, they are describing a mechanism that prolongs a bubble collapse.

It doesn't so much apply to bubbles as much as when, in a rising market, you get flash crashes and bear traps which cause people to panic sell and generally try and chase the market. Stronger hands will carry through such short-term dips (and even buy during them) because they believe the longer term trend is up.

Conversely, it is likely that bubbles and crashes are actually caused by weak hands, those who rush in when they think they can make a profit then bail when it all looks a bit pear-shaped.

Of course, this implies that those who believe in long-term growth are correct. It's a matter of perspective.

[NamelessOne]

And begin!

[needmorecoins]

the pain

[Richy_T]

A few months ago I wrote a Java websocket/socket.io client for Mt. Gox that processes the depth chart to explore my notions about depth and tick data. The ChartBuddy 3-D depth chart periodically posted here shows the time dimension like I wanted - so no point in going further. But I did learn enough about the Mt. Gox API to very deeply appreciate the cleverness employed by Clark Moody who ties together Mt. Gox trades and depth changes.

I wanted to do the socket.io thing (and still do for another project) but found it poorly documented and jumped on the http in the end. I still need to figure out why I appear to be regularly missing the first few minutes each hour from Gox. It's not always but it's often enough to be annoying.

[xorglub]

BTW, what does everyone think the top will be before we dive downwards again?

I say 180

I would feel even more confident about my bitcoin bubble assumptions if the price did not exceed $145 again before the final bottom.

I pretty much agree with you again. If we go again to $160 I would be puzzled. Heck, I think the normal thing would be not going over $125 before the final bottom.

I also like $125'ish for the top ... I just don't trust this rally at all and am not convinced it's got much more life in it

I think $124 was the top. Rocket is out of fuel, and even the manipulator(s) could not tow it.
Now heading back to a lower orbit

[NamelessOne]

HAHA someone is desperately buying trying to prevent this from looking like the top.

[underground_]

HAHA someone is desperately buying trying to prevent this from looking like the top.

Price drops to 117, and he clears out the asks to 124, hmmm....

[Richy_T]

But I agree, in general, with the sentiment. I don't see the market cap of bitcoin being 3 trillion by the end of the year. I think we could see $10k, which is a market cap of ~$100 billion.

Bear in mind that the market cap is somewhat meaningless. It doesn't mean that if you dump all the bitcoins on the market, you end up with $3 trillion.

[DougTanner]

Monday volatility is here. Now we start to see where the price really wants to go.

[SlipperySlope]

A few months ago I wrote a Java websocket/socket.io client for Mt. Gox that processes the depth chart to explore my notions about depth and tick data. The ChartBuddy 3-D depth chart periodically posted here shows the time dimension like I wanted - so no point in going further. But I did learn enough about the Mt. Gox API to very deeply appreciate the cleverness employed by Clark Moody who ties together Mt. Gox trades and depth changes.

I wanted to do the socket.io thing (and still do for another project) but found it poorly documented and jumped on the http in the end. I still need to figure out why I appear to be regularly missing the first few minutes each hour from Gox. It's not always but it's often enough to be annoying.

I use the Chrome web browser. Its tools permit the monitoring of the TCP traffic between client and server - and so I watch Clark Moody's app to confirm the socket.io API that Mt. Gox uses. I likewise found Mt.Gox performance to be annoying.