Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rampion]

Manipulator... Everyone in this thread is a manipulator.

Even in multi-player zero-sum games there may be significant advantages to players, i.e. win-win situations, resulting from the sharing of noisy or misleading information.

I am here because I believe that what I learn helps me to multiply my bitcoins. I do not believe that what I say meaningfully affects the bitcoin exchange market, and the criticism my ideas receive is easier to accept than lessons taught solely by the market.

Believing that what we say in this thread can talk the price up or down is delusional.

We may have a couple of delusional guys in here who think they can manipulate the price with their talk, but we all know that's not happening

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[Rampion]

Hehe, so strange to see rampion bullish at 120 

I'm a bull long term, but short term I expected this bubble to capitulate further down as per Slippery Slope. Anyhow, after the last sell off to $80 (I expected going down to at least $60ish), I'm starting to think that visiting again $80 or below is unlikely, which of course contraddicts the strategy I decided to follow after April, 10th. The fact is that it looks like all the sellers already made their big sell offs. I'm still not going all in, I still keep my bids all the way down, I still think that the $90 to $120 rally we had during the weekend was a joke... But somehow I'm starting to realize that bears are running low of ammo, I kinda feel it.

Do whatever you think it's best mate but I wouldn't go with the line "seems all sellers have made big sell offs". We never know that. Panic is always one minute of happening.

Yeah, you are right. Something can go really bad with BTC and a panic sell can be triggered. Just remember what happened with the fork, imagine that it took longer to fix...

But the truth is that after the April, 10th crash we had days with HUGE volume. Damn, we had two days where we had ATH volume. I really believe the bigger sell off has already happened - and that was April, 16th, where we had +BTC550k sold. I could bet we won't have a single day with that volume in the next month, unless something really disruptive happens (I mean a really big technical problem, etc.)

[lebing]

Hehe, so strange to see rampion bullish at 120 

I'm a bull long term, but short term I expected this bubble to capitulate further down as per Slippery Slope. Anyhow, after the last sell off to $80 (I expected going down to at least $60ish), I'm starting to think that visiting again $80 or below is unlikely, which of course contraddicts the strategy I decided to follow after April, 10th. The fact is that it looks like all the sellers already made their big sell offs. I'm still not going all in, I still keep my bids all the way down, I still think that the $90 to $120 rally we had during the weekend was a joke... But somehow I'm starting to realize that bears are running low of ammo, I kinda feel it.

Yeah the pattern is confirming it as well. Much easier to go above 200 than it is to go below 70.

[SlipperySlope]

But the truth is that after the April, 10th crash we had days with HUGE volume. Damn, we had two days where we had ATH volume. I really believe the bigger sell off has already happened - and that was April, 16th, where we had +BTC550k sold. I could bet we won't have a single day with that volume in the next month, unless something really disruptive happens (I mean a really big technical problem, etc.)

To the degree that this bubble collapse behaves like the June 2011 collapse, it is normal for the big sell off to happen first. That's why I dubbed the August , 2011 capitulation The Great Capitulation of 2011. I believe the drop from $145 to $80 is the corresponding Great Capitulation of 2013. If my ideas are correct, then its likely we have seen the worst one this year.

Here is what happened with regard to volume back during the collapse of the bubble in 2011 ...

[Rampion]

Beware: aprox. BTC15K just appeared on the order book. That could be a nice round of bullets for the bears, prepare your bids and fasten your seat belts.

[Its About Sharing]

Beware: aprox. BTC15K just appeared on the order book. That could be a nice round of bullets for the bears, prepare your bids and fasten your seat belts.

Where are you seeing that? I still see the total sales at 172k. The only wall is 2k at $130. (I'm looking at ClarkMoody)

I am really careful of that order book (market depth is the same I think?) as that is where the psychological manipulation occurs.
If someone wants to bring things down, they will just put out a sale at market and then add to it, no? Maybe a bit of both?

[oda.krell]

@SlipperySlope:

You keep invoking the 2011 bubble, and how you expect a similar protracted slide downwards in this one as well. I'm not going to take the cheap shot and say "past performance is no guarantee of future results", in fact, I'm not even ruling out that you are right and that we have a correction of about 3 months ahead of us, bringing us all the way down to the 20-50 USD range, but there is one thing you seem to keep ignoring:

The smaller corrections (or capitulations) in 2011 followed a decidedly different pattern than those of the current bubble. What I drew in as "corrections" in 2011 and 2103 (see charts below) is to a degree debatable, but one trend seems to hold: the corrections of 2011 followed a very obvious, steady downward trend, each time reaching a lower high, and, more or less, going to lower lows with each correction.

The 2013 corrections so far however look quite different. True, we didn't reach a new ATH, but at the same time, the low points of the last two corrections are both higher than the lows of the first two corrections. If anything, I would say the corrections so far seem to indicate a (very cautious) consolidation pattern, trying to converge at a price somewhere between 100 and 130, while the 2011 pattern could perhaps be described as "reluctantly going downwards".

I appreciate your insights a lot, and I follow your posts closely, but I'm not buying your by-the-book comparison to the 2011 price decline, if the first month after this crash already looks so much different than the month after the crash two years ago.

[Rampion]

Beware: aprox. BTC15K just appeared on the order book. That could be a nice round of bullets for the bears, prepare your bids and fasten your seat belts.

Where are you seeing that? I still see the total sales at 172k. The only wall is 2k at $130. (I'm looking at ClarkMoody)

I am really careful of that order book (market depth is the same I think?) as that is where the psychological manipulation occurs.
If someone wants to bring things down, they will just put out a sale at market and then add to it, no? Maybe a bit of both?

I see it in the chart below. Note the sudden vertical spike (which means that belongs to a single entity) that goes from BTC160k to BTC175k in the ask sum graph. We usually see such movements before dumps, but this is not always happening. As always, walls/bids/ask can just vanish as they came.

[Its About Sharing]

@SlipperySlope:

You keep invoking the 2011 bubble, and how you expect a similar protracted slide downwards in this one as well. I'm not going to take the cheap shot and say "past performance is no guarantee of future results", in fact, I'm not even ruling out that you are right and that we have a correction of about 3 months ahead of us, bringing us all the way down to the 20-50 USD range, but there is one thing you seem to keep ignoring:

The smaller corrections (or capitulations) in 2011 followed a decidedly different pattern than those of the current bubble. What I drew in as "corrections" in 2011 and 2103 (see charts below) is to a degree debatable, but one trend seems to hold: the corrections of 2011 followed a very obvious, steady downward trend, each time reaching a lower high, and, more or less, going to lower lows with each correction.

The 2013 corrections so far however look quite different. True, we didn't reach a new ATH, but at the same time, the low points of the last two corrections are both higher than the lows of the first two corrections. If anything, I would say the corrections so far seem to indicate a (very cautious) consolidation pattern, trying to converge at a price somewhere between 100 and 130, while the 2011 pattern could perhaps be described as "reluctantly going downwards".

I appreciate your insights a lot, and I follow your posts closely, but I'm not buying your by-the-book comparison to the 2011 price decline, if the first month after this crash already looks so much different than the month after the crash two years ago.

I wonder the same thing. The one idea that needs out attention is that the crash of 2011 was when BTC was basically unknown (relative to now). It is much easier to have happen what happened. Factor into the new crash the low amount of BTC's in existence and increasing awareness of BTC, most notably China and even the US over the last few months. I too don't outright disagree with what others are saying but we have some pretty knowledgeable guys mixed on opinions and someone will be judged to be correct. Pretty hard to call correctly what we see happening as BTC is also Geo-Political and on the radar in more ways than most of us imagine imo.

IAS

[Hawker]

You keep posting that image again and again.  Why?

[SlipperySlope]

@SlipperySlope:

You keep invoking the 2011 bubble, and how you expect a similar protracted slide downwards in this one as well. I'm not going to take the cheap shot and say "past performance is no guarantee of future results", in fact, I'm not even ruling out that you are right and that we have a correction of about 3 months ahead of us, bringing us all the way down to the 20-50 USD range, but there is one thing you seem to keep ignoring:

The smaller corrections (or capitulations) in 2011 followed a decidedly different pattern than those of the current bubble. What I drew in as "corrections" in 2011 and 2103 (see charts below) is to a degree debatable, but one trend seems to hold: the corrections of 2011 followed a very obvious, steady downward trend, each time reaching a lower high, and, more or less, going to lower lows with each correction.

The 2013 corrections so far however look quite different. True, we didn't reach a new ATH, but at the same time, the low points of the last two corrections are both higher than the lows of the first two corrections. If anything, I would say the corrections so far seem to indicate a (very cautious) consolidation pattern, trying to converge at a price somewhere between 100 and 130, while the 2011 pattern could perhaps be described as "reluctantly going downwards".

I appreciate your insights a lot, and I follow your posts closely, but I'm not buying your by-the-book comparison to the 2011 price decline, if the first month after this crash already looks so much different than the month after the crash two years ago.

Perhaps the comparisons with bubble 1 will become stronger as this collapse continues. There are plenty of falsifiable predictions I could make, and the most interesting is whether $145 or $160 will be surpassed during the remainder of the collapse. Based on bubble 1, I think not.
  

[Rampion]

We had a bulls vs bears battle with high volume just a couple hours ago. Now volume is so tiny this looks like a weekend, and the price stays put at $120ish

Like both bears and bulls are kinda scared

[Missionary]

You keep posting that image again and again.  Why?

It's a new one every time. And, it's an automated post. So, just ignore the user if you don't find them useful. There is no human behind the account to be offended.

[SAQ]

http://www.rtcons.com/wall/15831.16.png

You keep posting that image again and again.  Why?

Its different images. It shows the price movement in three dimensions. Mainly how it has changed in the past hour.

[Hawker]

...snip...

You keep posting that image again and again.  Why?

Its different images. It shows the price movement in three dimensions. Mainly how it has changed in the past hour.

Ah.  Thanks.

[oda.krell]

You keep posting that image again and again.  Why?

Hourly updates.

[Rampion]

Looks like there is quite a lot of selling pressure. I guess we will know where we are standing at on Wednesday night.

[SAQ]

Ohh look, everybody woke up with money in their MT account.

[MAbtc]

Hourly shows 5 tests of 125 and 5 fails over 13 hours. I can't see a breakout any direction but down here.

[oda.krell]

Perhaps the comparisons with bubble 1 will become stronger as this collapse continues. There are plenty of falsifiable predictions I could make, and the most interesting is whether $145 or $160 will be surpassed during the remainder of the collapse. Based on bubble 1, I think not.

Agreed. Like I said, I read your posts with a lot of interest, and if the next corrections do indeed point downwards, I'm inclined to agree with you. But for that to be the case we do not only need to stay below the previous highs, we also need to at least seriously retest towards 50 again. We will see.