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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (2%)
7/28 - 7 (14%)
8/4 - 9 (18%)
8/11 - 5 (10%)
8/18 - 1 (2%)
8/25 - 2 (4%)
After August - 25 (50%)
Total Voters: 50

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26419022 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
SlipperySlope
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Stephen Reed


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May 06, 2013, 05:12:53 PM
 #4821

@SlipperySlope:

You keep invoking the 2011 bubble, and how you expect a similar protracted slide downwards in this one as well. I'm not going to take the cheap shot and say "past performance is no guarantee of future results", in fact, I'm not even ruling out that you are right and that we have a correction of about 3 months ahead of us, bringing us all the way down to the 20-50 USD range, but there is one thing you seem to keep ignoring:

The smaller corrections (or capitulations) in 2011 followed a decidedly different pattern than those of the current bubble. What I drew in as "corrections" in 2011 and 2103 (see charts below) is to a degree debatable, but one trend seems to hold: the corrections of 2011 followed a very obvious, steady downward trend, each time reaching a lower high, and, more or less, going to lower lows with each correction.

The 2013 corrections so far however look quite different. True, we didn't reach a new ATH, but at the same time, the low points of the last two corrections are both higher than the lows of the first two corrections. If anything, I would say the corrections so far seem to indicate a (very cautious) consolidation pattern, trying to converge at a price somewhere between 100 and 130, while the 2011 pattern could perhaps be described as "reluctantly going downwards".

I appreciate your insights a lot, and I follow your posts closely, but I'm not buying your by-the-book comparison to the 2011 price decline, if the first month after this crash already looks so much different than the month after the crash two years ago.





Perhaps the comparisons with bubble 1 will become stronger as this collapse continues. There are plenty of falsifiable predictions I could make, and the most interesting is whether $145 or $160 will be surpassed during the remainder of the collapse. Based on bubble 1, I think not.
  
Rampion
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May 06, 2013, 05:12:56 PM
 #4822

We had a bulls vs bears battle with high volume just a couple hours ago. Now volume is so tiny this looks like a weekend, and the price stays put at $120ish

Like both bears and bulls are kinda scared Cheesy
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May 06, 2013, 05:15:21 PM
 #4823



You keep posting that image again and again.  Why?


It's a new one every time. And, it's an automated post. So, just ignore the user if you don't find them useful. There is no human behind the account to be offended. Wink
SAQ
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May 06, 2013, 05:15:28 PM
 #4824


Its different images. It shows the price movement in three dimensions. Mainly how it has changed in the past hour.
Hawker
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May 06, 2013, 05:17:32 PM
 #4825

...snip...

You keep posting that image again and again.  Why?


Its different images. It shows the price movement in three dimensions. Mainly how it has changed in the past hour.

Ah.  Thanks.
oda.krell
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May 06, 2013, 05:18:41 PM
 #4826

You keep posting that image again and again.  Why?


Hourly updates.
Rampion
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May 06, 2013, 05:19:34 PM
 #4827

Looks like there is quite a lot of selling pressure. I guess we will know where we are standing at on Wednesday night.



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May 06, 2013, 05:20:34 PM
 #4828

Ohh look, everybody woke up with money in their MT account.
MAbtc
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May 06, 2013, 05:25:14 PM
 #4829

Hourly shows 5 tests of 125 and 5 fails over 13 hours. I can't see a breakout any direction but down here.
oda.krell
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May 06, 2013, 05:25:50 PM
 #4830

Perhaps the comparisons with bubble 1 will become stronger as this collapse continues. There are plenty of falsifiable predictions I could make, and the most interesting is whether $145 or $160 will be surpassed during the remainder of the collapse. Based on bubble 1, I think not.

Agreed. Like I said, I read your posts with a lot of interest, and if the next corrections do indeed point downwards, I'm inclined to agree with you. But for that to be the case we do not only need to stay below the previous highs, we also need to at least seriously retest towards 50 again. We will see.
SAQ
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May 06, 2013, 05:27:01 PM
 #4831

Hourly shows 5 tests of 125 and 5 fails over 13 hours. I can't see a breakout any direction but down here.

When was 125 tested? We have not even reached 125 yet. The high is 124.9.

Plus we only got above 120 this GMT morning.
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May 06, 2013, 05:32:19 PM
 #4832

Beware: aprox. BTC15K just appeared on the order book. That could be a nice round of bullets for the bears, prepare your bids and fasten your seat belts.



Do you see the sudden drop in the Bid Sum from Monday? That was most likely wallzilla taking down his wall to buy coins. You see the sudden spike in the Ask Sum for today? That is likely wallzilla putting his new coins on the order book. He must have spread them out for profit taking instead of a huge sell wall that would likely take time to sell through. It DOES NOT mean he is going to take down all those orders he just placed and market dump. True bears will come out of nowhere and drop 15k coins.
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May 06, 2013, 05:39:02 PM
 #4833

So, you think the capitulation is over and we are on the way up?

Man, bulls turning bears and bears turning bulls, I'm really puzzled Wink

Have you ever seen a medium perform where they're saying they hear a voice, it's Susan, maybe Sarah. She's your mother, no grandmother, maybe a childhood friend?

Gotta be able to turn on a dime in the prediction business.



 Grin Houdini and Derren Brown would give you a knowing nod for that. So true.
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May 06, 2013, 05:40:48 PM
 #4834

Beware: aprox. BTC15K just appeared on the order book. That could be a nice round of bullets for the bears, prepare your bids and fasten your seat belts.



Do you see the sudden drop in the Bid Sum from Monday? That was most likely wallzilla taking down his wall to buy coins. You see the sudden spike in the Ask Sum for today? That is likely wallzilla putting his new coins on the order book. He must have spread them out for profit taking instead of a huge sell wall that would likely take time to sell through. It DOES NOT mean he is going to take down all those orders he just placed and market dump. True bears will come out of nowhere and drop 15k coins.

I didn't see the wallzilla buying $2M coins in market orders earlier today, sorry. That would have triggered quite of a rally. In fact, what I saw is a BTC2Kish dump just immediately after wallzilla removed his bids (you can see it on ask sum graph too).

IMO, we should be testing $100 soon.
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May 06, 2013, 05:41:21 PM
 #4835

Hourly shows 5 tests of 125 and 5 fails over 13 hours. I can't see a breakout any direction but down here.

When was 125 tested? We have not even reached 125 yet. The high is 124.9.

Plus we only got above 120 this GMT morning.

.1 USD is really insignificant here. This isn't some sort of predictive science.

We crossed 124.75 13 hours ago. We have fluctuated between 124.65 and 124.9 over four separate hours since then before falling back to 120/under. Yes, we couldn't even break 125. This repeated stagnation at the resistance from 120-125 = downward break, IMO.
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May 06, 2013, 05:51:28 PM
 #4836

Yawn, so low volume. Two bots flirting and some random guy buying half a bitcoin.
Frozenlock
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May 06, 2013, 05:54:10 PM
 #4837

Ok, I need to do so groceries.

Everyone, stop trading!  Wink
hyphymikey
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May 06, 2013, 06:00:41 PM
 #4838

Beware: aprox. BTC15K just appeared on the order book. That could be a nice round of bullets for the bears, prepare your bids and fasten your seat belts.

http://www.blockchained.com/depth_mtgox_15d.png

Do you see the sudden drop in the Bid Sum from Monday? That was most likely wallzilla taking down his wall to buy coins. You see the sudden spike in the Ask Sum for today? That is likely wallzilla putting his new coins on the order book. He must have spread them out for profit taking instead of a huge sell wall that would likely take time to sell through. It DOES NOT mean he is going to take down all those orders he just placed and market dump. True bears will come out of nowhere and drop 15k coins.

I didn't see the wallzilla buying $2M coins in market orders earlier today, sorry. That would have triggered quite of a rally. In fact, what I saw is a BTC2Kish dump just immediately after wallzilla removed his bids (you can see it on ask sum graph too).

IMO, we should be testing $100 soon.

You actually lose money market buying or market selling, compared to setting up a wall and waiting. Well, wallzilla was waiting on the crazy typical bear to come along over the weekend, and he didn't. So he took down his wall. That we know. What we don't know is what happened next with him. Did he just make small buy orders multiple times and now has all his coins on the sell side? That's what I think, and not some random bear adding 2 mil to the ask side to drive the price down. If he did what you said and just "gave up" and took down his wall, that is even more scary, to know that there is that much cash waiting off the books to ride this thing upwards. And if that is the case, then it's very bullish. Lets just say he sees the price go down to 110, where he had his wall, do you think he will just keep letting it fall? Close to 100 like you say? I doubt it, unless he is stupid, which makes me wonder where he got that cash from if he is that stupid. He would put up his wall again and get the coins he was looking for. But I think he has them already, even if he didn't get them until we got in the 120 range.

Wallzilla, if you are out there, put your wall back up, so we know what is going on. If he does, then it's obvious my opinion was wrong. If we keep moving up, something tells me he who has 2 million is smart enough to already be on the train.
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May 06, 2013, 06:01:41 PM
 #4839

Ok, I need to do so groceries.

Everyone, stop trading!  Wink

looks like they have stopped trading!
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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper


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May 06, 2013, 06:05:38 PM
 #4840

So funny to see people talking about the boogie man with his "WALL"....

 Grin
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