Maybe the better current question is not whether the "bottom is in," but instead did you sufficiently and adequately fill up your bags, just in case (as insurance) just in case the bottom is actually in?
I missed the bottom, but when it was $35k I did stash some with spare cash. Watching at $44,440 feel good again. Hopefully we are running towards $60 again.
I doubt that any of us are going to be able to exactly time any bottom with very much precision, and surely anyone who bought in the $33k to $38k price arena should be happy for themselves, even if they had happened to have been at the middle or higher end of that range.
Of course, I have been largely buying all the way down from $60k to $33k, so sure, I had some buys in the lower end o the range, but I also bought quite a few higher than current prices (even though used with funds from sales at higher ranges..around a $7k spread, usually).
but with any of us, we can presume that we have ongoing cashflow coming in, so what do we do with the ongoing cashflow? Do we want to or need to still invest in bitcoin with some of that? Multi-million dollar question, no?
I can speak for me and the answer is I still do DCA. But I push myself a bit, by using spare cash when I see the market is falling. From last few months I am using a portion of my corns for trading. I would not say that I made much profit but I am learning the game.
Hopefully you are not using too much of your stash while learning, and it seems to me that there are ways to structure such trades in ways that you are mostly NOT losing (or that you are always profitable). so long as the BTC price goes up, ultimately (in the long run), but of course, it could take several years to get out of some of the negative trades, that any guy might enter into such as my buying BTC all the way down from $60k to $33k, it could take a few years to get back above $60k... and it seems to me to be better for a guy to be able to weather those kinds of trades.. but having to also have some level of confidence too depending on how s/he is structuring his/her trades... so mine would be somewhat biased based on BTC accumulation.. and not necessarily getting caught up in whether the position might be in a losing position in the short to medium term (which could last 3 years or longer in some scenarios).. by the way, my very first BTC purchase at around $1,200 in late November 2013 was not clearly profitable until March 2017 - which was 3 years and 4 months later.
Another personal example is that in 2017/2018, my BTC trade spreads were much smaller than they are now, so in 2017, my spreads to buy back were only like $500 (- only like 2.5% - which now seems totally whimpy but also a product of my then quasi-desperation in my own mind about aiming to accumulate BTC at any price.. and framing my profitability in that way.. and for some reason, I could not really completely shake the feeling that I did not have enough BTC.. strange.. strange.. strange.. because I think I have gotten better and learned from that). In that late 2017 context, I had started buying back BTC at around $19k-ish.. so, as we know from looking at the charts, some of those $19k-ish buys did not become profitable again until about 3 years later in December 2020.. fuck...
So if you look at my current spreads.. when we were in the $60ks, I probably had my highest BTC sale at around $67.5k.. or something in that ballpark.. remember these are incremental sales so they do not constitute very high amounts of my overall BTC value.. for sure, less than 1% for every 10% the BTC price goes up.. and probably currently in the ballpark of 0.75% for every 10% the BTC price goes up... so anyhow something like a $7k buy back spread would be slightly higher than 10%... which is still way higher than my earlier 2.5% spread when we were in late 2017.. so I have figured out a way to increase my spreads by quite a lot and to get quite a bit less attached to whether i buy back or not because in my way of thinking about the matter is that I have enough BTC and maybe even too much already and I am not even really selling close to as much as I might be willing to authorize myself to sell.. so in my mind, I continue to frame the whole matter as my having a kind of overall surplus of BTC.... .so no skin off of my back whether I buy back or not... blah blah blah... now some people might be speculating how the fuck do you do all of these calculations when you only have a supra 0.63BTC stash.. and that is another story that need NOT be told at this time.
Anyhow, if you are tailoring your managing of your BTC holdings to your own situation, then it may well not matter so much about specifics regarding profitability in one direction or another because you have some kinds of goals that you might be working on achieving through your employed process.. especially if you might be erroring on the side of having a BTC accumulation goal, for example,... and for sure whether you are meeting something in the ballpark of your own BTC accumulation goals can be measured, too...
So for example, some guys who came into bitcoin in 2015/2016 like you, might want to rest on their laurels and say.. holy shit, I am good because I was able to accumulate my 10 BTC in my early years into bitcoin for an average of around $1k per coin...
But, the guy who might have spent an additional $30k after initially accumulating 10 BTC, and more than doubled his stash to 20 BTC for example may well be in a way better position than the guy who sat around and did not do anything and just kept his 10 BTC stash, and even another guy who was able to tripled his bitcoin stash to 30 BTC for example, and maybe ended up spending an additional $80k would still likely be in a much better position than either the guy with 10 BTC or the guy with 20 BTC, even if his average cost per coin might have gone up way more than either the guy with 10 BTC or the one with 20 BTC.
So the guy with 10 BTC had a total budget of $10k and an average cost of $1k per coin, and the guy with 20BTC had a total budget of $40k, and an average cost per coin of $2k per coin.
The third guy ended up spending quite a bit more to get the 30 BTC, but there is a considerable amount of increased value in getting the additional 10 coins more than the second guy and 20 coins more than the first guy. So the third 30 BTC guy has a total cost of $90k, and so an average cost per coin of $3k per coin.
Of course, your numbers might NOT be so straight-forward as the numbers in my hypothetical, and they might even look way worse than my above hypothetical numbers, yet my point is that even if your average cost per BTC might end up going up by a considerable amount because you continued to engage in ongoing BTC accumulating behaviors, you may well be in a way better position by having had accumulated more BTC through that whole process even if your investment cost ended up being way more overall and even several of your coins ended up costing you way more to acquire at later dates than the costs of your earliest purchased coins.
In sum, I am a pretty BIG advocate of both considering ways to continue to accumulate BTC until you are clearly assessing yourself to have either gotten to fuck you status or assessing yourself to be way too allocated into bitcoin.. and of course, ONLY you can make those kinds of personal determination regarding how to balance out these kinds of considerations along the way.
We seem way too early in our adoption level (still likely less than 1% of the world's population) to be proclaiming that bitcoin is becoming mature enough to no longer have severe FOMO episodes.
That depends on your definition of severe, of course.
Hahahahaha
You got me there.
Remember from September 2020 to April 2021 we had a 6.5x price rise in about 7 months... that could be considered getting towards severe, especially if it had been coupled with another 3x or 5x price rise soon thereafter, but alas, we ended up not getting that result in that particular context.
So maybe it is not easy to exactly particularize what kinds of rises in what amount of time might constitute "severe" within its proper context.
If we were to end up getting 6x to 10x from our mid-$35k jumping off point (from a few days ago) within 6-10 months, that might also constitute something that could be characterized as severe - were it to happen?
I may just be being over-hopeful but it seems that the long winter where we trundled along in the low-hundreds with the occasional hopeful sign quickly pummeled even lower may not repeat itself that badly. Then again, I felt the other way about six months ago but was proven wrong. Have to adapt to the circumstances, however (though the underlying truth that Bitcoin is currently cheap still applies).
Seems to be cheap, currently.. for those of us paying attention... so either we are having some asymmetric information advantage or we are fools... hopefully not the latter.
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