Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Vycid]

I really believe that Risto is seriously trolling in here. It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE to predict ANYTHING for sure into such a system like BTC. A serious prediction of ANY chaotic system (not one like we're observing here, which may as well be the mother of all chaotic systems) would have been in the timeframe of minutes or hours at max, not days; nor weeks.

ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.

Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).

I have a special kind of mind, it is quite simple, but it can calculate monetary probabilities very well. Somebody else may choke on his numbers, or shortcircuit and SHOUT that it is impossible to predict anything with certainty. Sure it is. Still some people win in poker and others don't.

I have a simple model that shows (among others) that after bubble pop, as long as the price is 0.2 or more log-units over the trendline, it is not possible to sell at a profit in 1-6 months timeframe. It is quite sobering: by selling at $628 today, the buyback at a profit is guaranteed for many months to come.

Chances that the model ends up faulty (that despite their mutual differences, 2 previous bubbles have something intrinsic in common that the 3rd does not have) are 20-30%, which means that the odds are way in favor. With this kind of odds it is Kelly optimal to risk about 40% of your net worth.

Any doubts I had that you might have been as knowledgeable as you claim to be have just been washed away in one stroke.

Sadly your mind apparently cannot grasp the concept that in a chaotic, dynamic system, what happened in the past cannot be used to predict the future unless the circumstances are exactly the same.

Not to mention: it was far more likely that the two bubbles would show some mutual similarity (both being bubbles) than no similarity at all. But just because those similarities exist does not mean should be understood as anything more than stochastic noise; it could have just as easily been any other of the countless possible permutations that you would now be using to "guarantee profit".

[Voodah]

Just like, in between 21:25-22:15 UTC, the price went up by 1% with high volume. I told before, in this very thread. Why did you not piggyback that one?

Seriously now: What percentage of certainty your model describes? Will it be 100% sure that what you're going to predict will actually be like that?

Seriously now: Why are you asking for "certainty percentages" ??

There is no such thing. Every person has his own view, theory and understanding of the market and the trends guiding it. They are at best, guesstimates, or if you feel offended, estimates based on past performance, pattern recognition and future projections.

No one has any percentage whatsoever of certainty.

I'd guess it would be important for investment strategies as risk assessment, it would probably be the core part of decision making for a bot.

Well, yes that would be a more correct term to describe what we're all about here. But yeah, you just answered yourself.

Risk assessment is all about studying the probabilities of different outcomes. No certainties there either.

This is what Risto actually talks about. His skill to ultimately asses and assign a value to the different probabilities. In that sense, yes, people can get very very very good at it. Certainties? No.

[Vycid]

you make a claim that btc will go down 50%. Then try to make a bet that has nothing to do with btc going down 50%?

What am I missing?

Probably that he's a little cray cray.

[virtualfaqs]

I have a special kind of mind, it is quite simple, but it can calculate monetary probabilities very well. Somebody else may choke on his numbers, or shortcircuit and SHOUT that it is impossible to predict anything with certainty. Sure it is. Still some people win in poker and others don't.

All I can say is online poker is illegal in my US state. Bitcoin Daytrading is not.  

[Dragonkiller]

nice bid wall at 900 on gox

[Davyd05]

Chinas supporting trend broken.Next step: daily EMA down cross. Victory for bears.

agree, it looks pretty bearish... but today is Friday so this was expected

one of these Fridays will be different.. which one I do not know for sure.

Please be a different Friday please be ! the weekends have been so boring

[Nolo]

Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?

No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level.

We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%.

I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post...

But this is btc:-D

Btc dont care

You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me...

How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?

- If this price is breached, Goat wins.
- If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins.

Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date.

you make a claim that btc will go down 50%. Then try to make a bet that has nothing to do with btc going down 50%?

What am I missing?

+1

[Davyd05]

Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?

No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level.

We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%.

I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post...

But this is btc:-D

Btc dont care

You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me...

How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?

- If this price is breached, Goat wins.
- If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins.

Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date.

you make a claim that btc will go down 50%. Then try to make a bet that has nothing to do with btc going down 50%?

What am I missing?

+1

He kinda mentioned it, if he loses he has enough btc that it makes the 50,000 an eatable loss and not a net loss at all.. if he wins he gets 50k on top of the mound of Fiat he has. My guess atleast.

[virtualfaqs]

Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?

No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level.

We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%.

I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post...

But this is btc:-D

Btc dont care

You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me...

How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?

- If this price is breached, Goat wins.
- If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins.

Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date.

you make a claim that btc will go down 50%. Then try to make a bet that has nothing to do with btc going down 50%?

What am I missing?

+1

He kinda mentioned it, if he loses he has enough btc that it makes the 50,000 an eatable loss and not a net loss at all.. if he wins he gets 50k on top of the mound of Fiat he has. My guess atleast.

Sure is great to win no matter what the situation.

[QuestionAuthority]

Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?

No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level.

We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%.

I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post...

But this is btc:-D

Btc dont care

You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me...

How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?

- If this price is breached, Goat wins.
- If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins.

Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date.

you make a claim that btc will go down 50%. Then try to make a bet that has nothing to do with btc going down 50%?

What am I missing?

The opportunity to make $50k.

[Voodah]

I heard today Casascius has the Fincen breathing down on him??

Can anyone confirm?

[adamstgBit]

lmao. Btw, anything on the radio call?

Well Shawn Apel, said he would air the story this morning at 7:00am, I missed it but i'm hopeful it will soon show up on cbc.ca  "daybreak", The main story that he covered is that now you can buy espadrilles with Bitcoin, at Diego Arnedo's store in Montreal, but i guess bits and pieces of my interview will be squeezed in there, IDK.

[QuestionAuthority]

I heard today Casascius has the Fincen breathing down on him??

Can anyone confirm?

Yes, it's true. Mike told me himself.

[Nolo]

I heard today Casascius has the Fincen breathing down on him??

Can anyone confirm?

http://www.coindesk.com/us-regulators-bitcoin-mint-casascius-shut/

[rpietila]

$200 is easy as fuck, but i still dont get what this has to do with the claim btc WILL go down 50%

(good that I didnt close this yet)

If you are willing to bet on the low point of BTC, I can do that also.

Do you pay me 2 to 1 in USD that Bitcoin will visit $450 in either Gox/Bitstamp in 3 months?

You lose, I get $50k.
I lose, you get $25k.

[Davyd05]

$200 is easy as fuck, but i still dont get what this has to do with the claim btc WILL go down 50%

(good that I didnt close this yet)

If you are willing to bet on the low point of BTC, I can do that also.

Do you pay me 2 to 1 in USD that Bitcoin will visit $450 in either Gox/Bitstamp in 3 months?

You lose, I get $50k.
I lose, you get $25k.

hmm, let me think about this for a second. I'm kind of wondering why you need 2 to 1 odds when you were so sure before.

..Rp believes in only win win for himself lol

[Voodah]

I heard today Casascius has the Fincen breathing down on him??

Can anyone confirm?

http://www.coindesk.com/us-regulators-bitcoin-mint-casascius-shut/

Well fuck. That's retarded.

He is merely providing the digital > physical interface.

What if he sold the coins with no BTC in them?

[600watt]

$200 is easy as fuck, but i still dont get what this has to do with the claim btc WILL go down 50%

(good that I didnt close this yet)

If you are willing to bet on the low point of BTC, I can do that also.

Do you pay me 2 to 1 in USD that Bitcoin will visit $450 in either Gox/Bitstamp in 3 months?

You lose, I get $50k.
I lose, you get $25k.

hmm, let me think about this for a second. I'm kind of wondering why you need 2 to 1 odds when you were so sure before.

c'm on guys ... get it settled.

panem et circenses

is what we want.

[Voodah]

Don't do it guys.

It's ostentatious a la WallStreet. I can live off of 1 BTC for two or three months down here in Argentina.

Don't throw 50 away ! It makes me cringe..

[Vycid]

Don't do it guys.

It's ostentatious a la WallStreet. I can live off of 1 BTC for two or three months down here in Argentina.

Don't throw 50 away ! It makes me cringe..

They have ridiculous amounts of money, and the money won't be destroyed here, it would just change hands.

Goat's bet is more than fair (in contrast to mine, where I was seeking to troll a +EV bet out of rpietila). If rpietila doesn't accept this bet it is proof that he doesn't believe the things he says with any conviction, he's just trying to drive the price down.