Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kurious]

It's been known that a new API from Gox has been installed to the other exchanges as well. This is the first bold move so that the differences between the exchanges is narrowed. Maybe a few bots are in the job for it. It's just a theory but I'm sure you can observe small movements all the time before someone hits the sell or buy button like before. If you have a common API you can predict who's into such an arbitrage move.

Again; just a theory.

Hmmm... Do you remember last weekend the 3 non CNY exchanges were weirdly in sync within about $12 for hours on end on the Sunday - was this anything to do with this - they tracked each other too close for it not to be by design.

Maybe it's nothing to do with it - but it was happening...

If you pay attention, you might find answers... well done.

Yep I remember that weird sync also.

I assumed someone had made some sort of 'arb-bot' across the three, but it makes sense there was some sort of inter-exchange co-operation.  maybe it was a dry run, but it is effectively a currency price control 'peg' and will fail if big money wants to bust it.    Perhaps the idea is to prevent one exchange being singled out for a move, spreading the load - do the exchanges trust each other enough to agree...?

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[Dragonkiller]

I see the silk road coins are still under lock and key:

https://blockchain.info/address/1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX

If they become 'seized proceeds of crime' after conviction - do they hit the market at any point....  Silly season question, just curious

I read somewhere they (I think FBI) said they will probably liquidate it. But they'd have to wait until after the legal process. I don't think they'd sell it directly on the exchanges though.

[kurious]

I see the silk road coins are still under lock and key:

https://blockchain.info/address/1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX

If they become 'seized proceeds of crime' after conviction - do they hit the market at any point....  Silly season question, just curious

I read somewhere they (I think FBI) said they will probably liquidate it. But they'd have to wait until after the legal process. I don't think they'd sell it directly on the exchanges though.

Imagine the FBI being Goxbuxed!

[explorer]

I see the silk road coins are still under lock and key:

https://blockchain.info/address/1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX

If they become 'seized proceeds of crime' after conviction - do they hit the market at any point....  Silly season question, just curious

I read somewhere they (I think FBI) said they will probably liquidate it. But they'd have to wait until after the legal process. I don't think they'd sell it directly on the exchanges though.

Some insider will take the problem off their hands for far below market value. Because the FBI is not corrupt as the rest of the US govt 

[Richy_T]

Very obvious dinosaur pattern on the graph, looks bearish as hell.

It is clearly a herbivore which means it wants to eat that lush, green fiat.

[kurious]

I see the silk road coins are still under lock and key:

https://blockchain.info/address/1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX

If they become 'seized proceeds of crime' after conviction - do they hit the market at any point....  Silly season question, just curious

I read somewhere they (I think FBI) said they will probably liquidate it. But they'd have to wait until after the legal process. I don't think they'd sell it directly on the exchanges though.

Some insider will take the problem off their hands for far below market value. Because the FBI is not corrupt as the rest of the US govt 

Someone on Wall Street will offer to 'help', I am sure - they can hardly sell on an exchange....

It will be interesting to keep an eye on it, once the trial is resolved.  May it be a while til it is though..!

[Bitcoines]

this one was intended for goat i guess 

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2013/12/14/vegas_developer_selling_785m_mansion_bitcoin_offers_accepted.html

[Peter R]

I see the silk road coins are still under lock and key:

https://blockchain.info/address/1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX

If they become 'seized proceeds of crime' after conviction - do they hit the market at any point....  Silly season question, just curious

I read somewhere they (I think FBI) said they will probably liquidate it. But they'd have to wait until after the legal process. I don't think they'd sell it directly on the exchanges though.

Some insider will take the problem off their hands for far below market value. Because the FBI is not corrupt as the rest of the US govt  

Someone on Wall Street will offer to 'help', I am sure - they can hardly sell on an exchange....

It will be interesting to keep an eye on it, once the trial is resolved.  May it be a while til it is though..!

The FBI will sell the coins at auction.  If the auction is well advertised and set-up in a reasonable way, I expect the coins to sell for *above* market price.  

Bitcoin holders worry about large sells driving down the price.  But big Wall Street players that want to get into bitcoin worry about the opposite: driving the price up too high before they establish their positions.  

[JorgeStolfi]

The FBI will sell the coins [seized from Silk Road] at auction.  If the auction is well advertised and set-up in a reasonable way, I expect the coins to sell for *above* market price.  

Wouldn't there be bureaucratic hurdles in that?  Have there been auctions of similarly immaterial property before? (Say, author rights, real estate on the Moon, club membership rights, etc?)

I wonder how they will do it, exactly? They will need the current owners' private keys, right?

[macsga]

I assumed someone had made some sort of 'arb-bot' across the three, but it makes sense there was some sort of inter-exchange co-operation.  maybe it was a dry run, but it is effectively a currency price control 'peg' and will fail if big money wants to bust it.    Perhaps the idea is to prevent one exchange being singled out for a move, spreading the load - do the exchanges trust each other enough to agree...?

Whenever there's the will, there's an action... I know about urm...
11,020,102,425 USD
or 7,716,496,363 EUR
or 32,126,811,250 PLN
or 6,730,991,273 GBP

OR 12,122,975 BTC for them to agree on a common purpose.

But; as I always say; I'm a known conspiracy theorist... And a long time LONG! (on BTC of-course...)

[Peter R]

The FBI will sell the coins [seized from Silk Road] at auction.  If the auction is well advertised and set-up in a reasonable way, I expect the coins to sell for *above* market price.  

Wouldn't there be bureaucratic hurdles in that?  Have there been auctions of similarly immaterial property before? (Say, author rights, real estate on the Moon, club membership rights, etc?)

I wonder how they will do it, exactly? They will need the current owners' private keys, right?

The FBI was somehow able to get DPR's private keys for at least part of his stash.  The FBI moved these coins to an address they control with a series of 324BTC transfers (324 = FBI on telephone keypad).  So they already have the private keys needed to auction the coins off.  

As for your other question about bureaucratic hurdles, I really don't know: maybe it will be more complicated than I think.  But, really, how is this different than auctioning off rare art or expensive cars that were proceeds of crime?  

[Davyd05]

Good grief. My question is if bitcoin doesn't go down today then will it go down at all short term?

I mean, these are ridicously bearish conditions, holidays, weekend, huge price run up, bearish triangles, mounting asks.

What's it going to take to tame this beast?

All of us are bearish right now very short term but the down trend is a trickle. What is going on bears? You're letting us down!!!

I'm 100% BTC Bitcoin just laughs and continues its journey to transform the whole world as we know it

EDIT. okay i'm high again

high on bitcoin? lol

[macsga]

Good grief. My question is if bitcoin doesn't go down today then will it go down at all short term?

I mean, these are ridicously bearish conditions, holidays, weekend, huge price run up, bearish triangles, mounting asks.

What's it going to take to tame this beast?

All of us are bearish right now very short term but the down trend is a trickle. What is going on bears? You're letting us down!!!

I'm 100% BTC Bitcoin just laughs and continues its journey to transform the whole world as we know it

EDIT. okay i'm high again

high on bitcoin? lol

Aren't we all??

[Dragonkiller]

Good grief. My question is if bitcoin doesn't go down today then will it go down at all short term?

I mean, these are ridicously bearish conditions, holidays, weekend, huge price run up, bearish triangles, mounting asks.

What's it going to take to tame this beast?

All of us are bearish right now very short term but the down trend is a trickle. What is going on bears? You're letting us down!!!

I'm 100% BTC Bitcoin just laughs and continues its journey to transform the whole world as we know it

EDIT. okay i'm high again

high on bitcoin? lol

who needs drugs when you have bitcoin 

[Nemo1024]

I love this stability, so I am going 50/50 again for the night.

Good night, everyone.

Europe over and out.

[Davyd05]

Good grief. My question is if bitcoin doesn't go down today then will it go down at all short term?

I mean, these are ridicously bearish conditions, holidays, weekend, huge price run up, bearish triangles, mounting asks.

What's it going to take to tame this beast?

All of us are bearish right now very short term but the down trend is a trickle. What is going on bears? You're letting us down!!!

I'm 100% BTC Bitcoin just laughs and continues its journey to transform the whole world as we know it

EDIT. okay i'm high again

high on bitcoin? lol

Aren't we all??

yes

[Dragonkiller]

I love this stability, so I am going 50/50 again for the night.

Good night, everyone.

Europe over and out.

goodnight sir

[JorgeStolfi]

The FBI was somehow able to get DPR's private keys for at least part of his stash.  The FBI moved these coins to an address they control with a series of 324BTC transfers (324 = FBI on telephone keypad).  So they already have the private keys needed to auction the coins off.  

Why would they do it that piecewise, rather than all at once?

how is this different than auctioning off rare art or expensive cars that were proceeds of crime?  

I don't know.

Suppose that instead of bitcoins he had the money deposited as Swiss francs in a Swiss bank account, and the FBI got hold of the bank account number and password.  Could they just transfer the francs to another account in the same bank and auction them, or convert them to USD?

Or suppose that he had placed a large bet on the outcome of World Soccer Cup 2018.  Would the FBI auction his betting ticket?

[kurious]

I assumed someone had made some sort of 'arb-bot' across the three, but it makes sense there was some sort of inter-exchange co-operation.  maybe it was a dry run, but it is effectively a currency price control 'peg' and will fail if big money wants to bust it.    Perhaps the idea is to prevent one exchange being singled out for a move, spreading the load - do the exchanges trust each other enough to agree...?

Whenever there's the will, there's an action... I know about urm...
11,020,102,425 USD
or 7,716,496,363 EUR
or 32,126,811,250 PLN
or 6,730,991,273 GBP

OR 12,122,975 BTC for them to agree on a common purpose.

You are leaving out greed and what is in game theory known as 'the prisoner's dilemma' - why would the Russian-based Btc-e trust Mark at Gox to not act in his own best interests in spite of any 'agreement' that is in all their best interests IF it holds?

Once the market gets volatile - it always will get to the point when 'each to their own' at some point.  Self-interest in markets always prevails in the end.

All fractional banking-style banks cannot withstand a run, so if everyone acts rationally - and does not join a collective demand for their money back, all will be fine (in theory).

But runs on banks only pay the first in the queue, so everyone wants to be first.   Exchange co-operation will be ok in smooth waters, but not in calamitous times - ask Mr. Soros?

I watch with interest - but it's a Darwinian and (relatively) unregulated market - so I think it's 'no prisoners' if it comes to crisis point.

[DaRude]

The FBI was somehow able to get DPR's private keys for at least part of his stash.  The FBI moved these coins to an address they control with a series of 324BTC transfers (324 = FBI on telephone keypad).  So they already have the private keys needed to auction the coins off.  

Why would they do it that piecewise, rather than all at once?

how is this different than auctioning off rare art or expensive cars that were proceeds of crime?  

I don't know.

Suppose that instead of bitcoins he had the money deposited as Swiss francs in a Swiss bank account, and the FBI got hold of the bank account number and password.  Could they just transfer the francs to another account in the same bank and auction them, or convert them to USD?

Or suppose that he had placed a large bet on the outcome of World Soccer Cup 2018.  Would the FBI auction his betting ticket?

As someone has already posted they'll most likely just auction it off. It'd be very interesting to see what price it'll go for. And probably in one big transaction