~snip~
I don't necessarily look at all of the responses before I respond, but on this one, I was having some difficulties trying to figure out where Raja might be going with this, and largely he did not really 'splain his lil selfie.. even though maybe we can kind of surmise that he is suggesting that the bitcoin price dynamics may well be in a more negative state of affairs than what many of us more bullmarket oriented members are willing to see. In some sense, he is even causing Biodom to appear as if he were also in the bull camp..... hahahahaha which in the end does seem to show that we are not all necessarily as stubborn in our views as might be portrayed.
I did appreciate the beginning of OOM's response that seemed to start out by suggesting that the number of weekly red candles in a row did not necessarily have as much significance as Raja might have been striving to make it into, with his overly predictive attributions. However, even OOM likely recognized that his post devolved into something that seemed to be saying that no candles matter, and I doubt that he had really intended to say that.
One thing is that we are not yet through this week's candle, so we actually have about 24 hours remaining in this week's candle at the time of this post of mine, and yeah it is seeming that the odds are pretty decent that this week's candle might well turn out red, especially given that it has to close above $39,465 in order to close in the green, and within the past hour (as I type this post) we had a decently large correction down from the $38,200-ish territory and now we are bouncing around in the $37,700-ish territory with a recent (within the past 30 minutes) dip down to $37,597... So, yeah we are seeming to need to recover $2k in the next 24 hours to get back into the weekly greenie (which we know that is not even that BIG of a feat in bitcoinlandia, but we cannot necessarily expect that it is going to magically happen).
Regarding the last time that we had 5 red weekly candles in a row (actually 6 in a row), it seems that it was
August 2014, and before that it was March 2014. I am not necessarily wanting to take away from Biodom's research, but he was admittedly using Yahoo finance rather than our historical Bitstamp reference in this thread... so bitstamp does seem to have priority when we are trying to stay on the same page and not get too much in the weeds.. but even with Biodom's pointing out the 5 in a row in March 2020.. Bitstamp is close to showing that, but it has one red, one green doji candle and then three more red.. so technically Raja is correct, even though still trying to grapple with whatever point he is wanting to argue from the mere fact that there might end up being a rare 5 weekly red candles in a row in bitcoinlandia at this particular time in bitcoin's history.
I looked at the weekly candles on
https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitstamp/btcusd rather than at Tradingview, but it seems that if you pick Bitstamp you should get the same results on either of those websites. I also saw that through the years, there are a lot of instances of many weekly green candles in a row, but there are ONLY a handful of instances of 4 or more weekly red candles in a row.. all the way back to 2012 there are only 10 instances (including our current streak).. namely:
February 2014
March 2014 (5 red weekly candles)
July 2014
August 2014 (6 red weekly candles)
December 2015
August 2016
September 2019
October 2019
June 2020
and
Our current set of weekly red candles that currently are confirmed for 4, and might reach 5 if this week candle closes lower than $39,465 as of tomorrow (Sunday) at midnight UTC.
Now that we have sorted out the facts, why is this information important Raja?
I know that you have had been presuming that we have been in a bear market since about June 2021.. and you so much want to be right in that you believe that means that the spot price is going to reach the 200-week moving average (which is currently at $21,500-ish), and you are quite stubborn in your belief, even though nearly two years have passed.. and you are still waiting.. so gotta give you some credit to the extent that you might actually be patient rather than a troll, but I suspect that you are largely just annoying in terms of really believing that you have been playing the bitcoin market correctly, even though you did end up being correct in regards to we have not really had much if any blow off top that was greater than April 2021 (at $64,895) - even though technically we did have a wee bit higher at $69k on November 2021.. so you can fuck off with trying to proclaim that you were right, or that everyone should be playing the BTC market the way that you have been playing it or even distracting their lil selfies with shitcoins... even though you likely might not be doing bad for yourself.. even though really the vast majority of folks are not going to be fucking around with the kinds of gambling that you have been doing - even if you personally have some abilities to kind of call some of the aspects somewhat correctly.
So go ahead and tell us what you want to tell us?
Do you want to proclaim that you are right about something? or are you just trying to say that this time we really are going to get enough down to get to your pie in the sky aspirations of touching the 200-week moving average?
For sure, the 100-week moving average (at $34,750) does have greater odds of being touched, but I doubt that even that is guaranteed.. because we hardly even got close to the 100-week moving average in July 2021 when our lowest price got down to $28,600, and the 100-week moving average was around $20k at that time... furthermore,.. your wet dreams about meeting the 200-week moving average was even further of a fantasy because it was at about $13.5k back then, so you ended up not even getting close to either of those - even though you were waiting for the reaching of the 200-week moving average which seems to have been a gamble that did not work out too well for you at that time.
I am not even going to say that the 200-week moving average cannot be reached, and my newest practice has been to attempt to keep buy orders open all the way down to 15% lower than the 200-week moving average - just for my own psychology to attempt to benefit from worser case outrageousnesses that can happen in bitcoinlandia from time to time....
You can see the historical 100-week moving average
hereYou can see the historical 200-week moving average
hereYet, it still seems to me that without getting an outrageous top, it becomes much more difficult for bitcoin to go through an outrageous bottom as you still seem to be presuming to be inevitable and near within bitcoin's future...which maybe you need some kind of a bat-slappening to help you to snap out of that negativism in your thinking about king daddy. yeah, we did get a touching of the 200-week moving average in March 2020, but really are you expecting that kind of a severe event again.. and is bitcoin going to react the same way - more than 2 years later.. I appreciate that there are some pretty damned severe baloney macro-jugglings going on in recent times, and there could be some BIG ASS panic events with bitcoin being way more liquid than a lot of other assets, but still seems to me that it is foolish to be putting very much emphasis on that and coming into this thread and acting like you have some kind of superior vision of negative scenarios when you have been singing the same tune for two years and just hoping and hoping and hoping for something that may well not happen.. but you still want to get some kind of credit for something happening that might be close to the scenario that you outlined.. even though you have had a lot of opportunity costs in the meantime.. and also likely polluting your brain (to the extent that you have one) getting involved in various shitcoin nonsense .. but hey pollute your lil selfie as you will.
Oh JJG... you and your long-ass responses. I don't really think I can address your all points, but I'll just let you know why I was pointing out 5 consecutive red weeks. It clearly shows that BTC is overdue for a relief rally at this point of the bear market (and it probably doesn't have anything to do with many of the people in this thread as y'all are actually in this thing for long-term). Moreover, pretty much the same goes for US100, SPX, etc. We know what happened after the end of the last Fed meeting (everything pumped), and there is a good chance that same happens again on Tuesday/Wednesday after they raise rates by 50 bps.
And yeah, I still don't hold any BTC. I'm waiting for 200 WMA touch.
P.S. I wish I could've just replied this meme, but it didn't look very appropriate for an old fren lmao
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