Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gandhibt]

[1715273573]

1715273573

[1715273573]

1715273573

[Sitarow]

[...]

nothing is wrong with selling.. a lot is wrong with panic selling.. and that is a majority of what I see pushed

It's only panic selling if you didn't conclude price will continue to fall and you sell anyway.

I see more and more evidence that this correction is far from over.

Hence my recommendation: wait for a moderate rebound (tonight? tomorrow maybe?), take a long, hard look at the charts and the tools of your choice, and then decide if it's time to sell some.

Especially take a look at the 3 months or 6 months charts to see where it's going.

Which monthly charts did you have in mind? The one from Q3/4 2011, or the one from Q2 this year?







In reality, I get your point of course. But do you get mine as well?

December 2012 to February 2013

Edit: As you have shown on the above charts. Those who made bank are those who buy and hold.

[crazy_rabbit]

Why do you guys so vehemently commit to buy and hold, only to blow it when it's at the very bottom and sell?

If you committed to buy and hold on the way up, what it SHOULD mean is that you have already psychologically braced yourself for any sort of drop like this. You've probably decided you're not good at day-trading, so you hold. The problem is it's very easy to commit to buy and hold when it's going to da moon, but will you maintain that sort of mentality when it is dropping like a stone? If you cannot do so, you should probably have cashed out enough while it was going up so that a drop wouldn't crush you. You know it will go down eventually, whether it be in a bear trap or a crash, so if you really want to stay in bitcoins, just save the proceeds from your bitcoins until it goes down, then buy some more.

 For some of us, it's an insane amount of money. You can't help but calculating buying a nice house in Tuscany with a boat to sail or just holding.


EDIT: With Buy and Hold it's a house in Tuscany. With playing the lotto with the Chinese, it's maybe a House in Tuscany PLUS the same amount of bitcoin you just spent on the house in Tuscany.

EDIT: The majority of my stash is still cold, cold, cold.

Were you the one who said you lost more money than you've ever had during this drop? If you sold portions after large advances instead of large declines, you would have had a lot more money, and wouldn't have to have that lurching in your stomach during drops. Now, if it continues to advance after you sell some, you will miss out on some profits, but you'll still likely make plenty. If it starts to drop, the money you have accumulated will help you keep your head on straight and not panic when a drop comes. That means you're going to be sticking to your original buy and hold plan. It also means you will have extra money with which to BUY when it's dropping.

I think for some of you, it stems from greed. "If I sell 10 BTC now at 1000, that's 10 million less I'll have when it hits 1 million!" I promise you it's not going to go to a million tomorrow. Take some profit during uptrends, buy yourself something nice, and hold onto the rest for rebuying later.

One might argue "well if your plan is to buy and hold, why are you selling?" Well, you're temporarily adjusting your plan to involve selling because you want some profits and you want to reduce your risk to prevent panic selling. The question is, are you going to adjust your plan rationally while it's going up, or in a panic when it's tanking?

As an irrational human all I can do is lock most of my bitcoin up in safe deposit vaults where I can't be my own worst enemy.

That said- I'm still ahead for today actually. So, no complaints there really. But yes you are right about the greed part.

[simonk83]

Why do you guys so vehemently commit to buy and hold, only to blow it when it's at the very bottom and sell?

Not all of us do that    When I say I'm holding, I'm holding.  I'm not dumb enough (nor good enough) to attempt to sell at the top and buy at the bottom, it's a fools game.

[jojo69]

bed you crazy rabbit

[Davyd05]

[...]

nothing is wrong with selling.. a lot is wrong with panic selling.. and that is a majority of what I see pushed

It's only panic selling if you didn't conclude price will continue to fall and you sell anyway.

I see more and more evidence that this correction is far from over.

Hence my recommendation: wait for a moderate rebound (tonight? tomorrow maybe?), take a long, hard look at the charts and the tools of your choice, and then decide if it's time to sell some.

Especially take a look at the 3 months or 6 months charts to see where it's going.

Which monthly charts did you have in mind? The one from Q3/4 2011, or the one from Q2 this year?







In reality, I get your point of course. But do you get mine as well?

Related to our sell vs no sell talks, I am happy for everyone who sold at the highs, clearly we've temporarily bottom'd out. To sell at the 720 and below range was silly, since someone was advising some to take some profit. Shortly following this convo beginning it almost broke 825, I would've been more alright with them selling on that very next up tick even.

I should always clarify I have no problem with people selling...as long as they came to that decision on their own opposed to following peoples advice without reading the theory behind or fact checking news articles getting familiar with charts etc.

I myself have been tempted to sell at the 3-4 highs and make 50 - 100 a coin minus 1.5% fees and those just intra day fluctuations. However I remain bullish and remain interested in the eurozone bail in talks.. this news could take us to a new bubble and in that one I see myself selling.

[Sitarow]

[...]

nothing is wrong with selling.. a lot is wrong with panic selling.. and that is a majority of what I see pushed

It's only panic selling if you didn't conclude price will continue to fall and you sell anyway.

I see more and more evidence that this correction is far from over.

Hence my recommendation: wait for a moderate rebound (tonight? tomorrow maybe?), take a long, hard look at the charts and the tools of your choice, and then decide if it's time to sell some.

Especially take a look at the 3 months or 6 months charts to see where it's going.

Which monthly charts did you have in mind? The one from Q3/4 2011, or the one from Q2 this year?







In reality, I get your point of course. But do you get mine as well?

Related to our sell, I am happy for everyone who sold at the highs, clearly we've temporarily bottom'd out. To sell now or I think we were having this convo before it almost broke 825 was silly, I would've been more alright with them selling on that very next up tick even.

I should always clarify I have no problem with people selling...as long as they came to that decision on their own opposed to following peoples advice without reading the theory behind or fact checking news articles getting familiar with charts etc.

I myself have been tempted to sell at the 3-4 highs and make 50 - 100 a coin minus 1.5% fees and those just intra day fluctuations. However I remain bullish and remain interested in the eurozone bail in talks.. this news could take us to a new bubble and in that one I see myself selling.

IF the bail in for the eurozone works like that of Cyprus, then you may end up "using" your stash rather than exchanging it for worthless euro's

[jojo69]

next leg down starts now

[octaft]

Why do you guys so vehemently commit to buy and hold, only to blow it when it's at the very bottom and sell?

Not all of us do that    When I say I'm holding, I'm holding.  I'm not dumb enough (nor good enough) to attempt to sell at the top and buy at the bottom, it's a fools game.

Then you have balls of steel or enough money to not panic. The idea is you want to stick to buy and hold, so put yourself in a position where you won't feel the need to abandon your plan because you need to pay your bills or whatever. If you can buy and hold without panic even without having taken that profit first, and that's what you want to do, then my advice would not apply to you.

[alexeft]

IF the bail in for the eurozone works like that of Cyprus, then you may end up "using" your stash rather than exchanging it for worthless euro's

 

[simonk83]

Why do you guys so vehemently commit to buy and hold, only to blow it when it's at the very bottom and sell?

Not all of us do that    When I say I'm holding, I'm holding.  I'm not dumb enough (nor good enough) to attempt to sell at the top and buy at the bottom, it's a fools game.

Then you have balls of steel or enough money to not panic. The idea is you want to stick to buy and hold, so put yourself in a position where you won't feel the need to abandon your plan because you need to pay your bills or whatever. If you can buy and hold without panic even without having taken that profit first, and that's what you want to do, then my advice would not apply to you.

Well it's mostly just because I've been around Bitcoin a long time, and I've been through this several times already.  After the second "crash" I find it just doesn't worry me as much anymore.  I have faith in the protocol long term, so the odd day/week/month of the price dropping or languishing doesn't really faze me.

Plus, I have a solid job and I'm not particularly in dire need of cash, so yeah that helps  

[Dragonkiller]

predictions for when china wakes up?

[bigasic]

I play with about 20-25 percent of my coin, back when the btc was in the 10 dollar range, i seemed to do quite well, now, for some reason (after the coin hit 130), every time I sell or buy, i lose. glad I only play with a small percentage. After today,( unless things change) Im done with trying to figure it out.. I think the best strategy for me is hold until I need the money to pay bills or something. It sucks to lose money, be it on paper or real... Im giving my significant other the keys to my storage, she seems to call it right every time. We are in it for the long haul anyways, we will care more what the btc is in 10 years or so, so dont ask me why I try to play this stupid game, lol....

Whats funny is that my wife couldn't send a bitcoin, she doesn't know how wallets, etc work yet had I listened to her every time, we would have much more.... Note to self, listen to my wife more..

Buy and hold seems like the best strategy, but when it starts to crash and read these damn boards, I do the damndest things...

[freet0pian]

Why do you guys so vehemently commit to buy and hold, only to blow it when it's at the very bottom and sell?

Not all of us do that    When I say I'm holding, I'm holding.  I'm not dumb enough (nor good enough) to attempt to sell at the top and buy at the bottom, it's a fools game.

No it's a fool's game to think it's a fool's game. Myself and many others continue to increase our BTC holdings with your "fool's game".

[kurious]

Here comes round 2 - glad I am have play money in fiat

[Mad Scientist]

next leg down starts now

Where do you think it bottoms out at?

[windjc]

Ok, wow - this has been a most unusually unclear news day.

However, from everything I can gather, it looks like the market is pricing in the fact that 3rd party payment processors will no longer be allowed in China, but Chinese banks can still be used to send money to and from exchanges.

Neither of these have been officially confirmed. Obviously, if the latter turns out to not be true, the market probably is going down some more in a heavy way.

However, Chinese exchanges are not done, as there is tons of wealth in Hong Kong and Macau and surrounding areas and savvy Chinese will still be able to invest in BTC.

However, either way this is going to cut some investment capital out of the bitcoin. No other way around that fact.

Personally, I don't think BTC needs 1 red (pun intended) cent from China long term. Short term it helped prop the price, BUT not as much as many thought.

We are in a down cycle now at least short to mid term, but that only now confirms what the charts were leaning towards for the last few weeks.

There will be cheaper bitcoins. And there will be another parabolic rise that makes this rise look like this rise made April look like.

[jojo69]

next leg down starts now

Where do you think it bottoms out at?

545 Gox  26 hours

[Davyd05]

next leg down starts now

would appear so..not on the 4hr gox chart yet tho

[Davyd05]

IF the bail in for the eurozone works like that of Cyprus, then you may end up "using" your stash rather than exchanging it for worthless euro's

 

I don't doubt it, Germany is pretty much slowing the process down cause why would they want to bail in the others