Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

When we were bouncing around at $18K I was telling myself that I think the next leg down will be the one to buy.  As we dip into the 15's I can't help but think this is the dip people have been waiting for.  There's still a ton of uncertainty and even more bad news on the horizon, but I think we've gone low enough in the short term (once this Genesis stuff is cleared up).  I think we're likely to start seeing a runup before the halving soon, with a small crash as we go into the halving and people cash out profits, followed by the start of the next bull run.  That's how it's gone in the past anyway.

yea, everyone pretty much knows the "drill" by now, but buying at the lows and selling closer to bumps can still result in 50% more btc in the end, albeit I definitely don't know how to do it.
I typically sell when I need money and buy when I have extra.

In this cycle, I have a more detailed game plan, though. We shall see how it goes.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart is dead.

https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart-v1/

The developer made another version: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
It will also die if Bitcoin goes below $13k in 2022.

 

Exactly a good idea to prepare for the unexpected and to fix the situation when the price falls outside of the parameters to keep making new versions when the price falls outside of the parameters (recently to the downside....   ....   Even in the better of possible scenarios failing to the upside could take well over a year and maybe even a few years.. ... that is if we end up returning towards going up rather than merely experiencing various dead cat bounces.

Surely the two peaks in 2021 (of $64.5k-ish in March and $69k in November) were not dead cat bounces, but retrospectively other bounces, including even some of the BIGGER ones in 2022 might now be characterized in that kind of a "dead cat bounce" kind of way.. . In other words, I use the word "retrospectively" because the pattern becomes more clear after it has played out rather than suggesting that any one of us was being unreasonable when we were expecting that we might have more upside BTC prices that would have gone quite a bit higher than our two BTC price peaks in 2021.

Am I trying to defend myself.. I don't think so... but surely a decent number of the smug bears, bitcoin naysayers, no(low) coiners and disgruntled twats are likely getting excited over these kinds of matters in their suggestions that we should have known that the BTC price was not going to be going up any more than it had already gone in those two 2021 price peaks.

[Biodom]

A day of the "underdog" at the World Cup?
...so far, at least.

re bitcoin...even a few hundred $ up feels quite good after all the carnage beforehand.

@jjg....nobody knew, I agree. In fact, most predicted a double hump with a second peak much higher with analogy to 2013.
Alas, Wall Street was fast on the sell. I assume that they knew that Fed is about to viciously tighten.
I made a bit of a tactical mistake as I also predicted the tightening, but did not think that they would be SO fast and relentless.
On a positive side, i have a bunch of cash coming in each month now as i had a relatively significant amount in short term treasuries (effectively) to counterbalance my bitcoin position.
Maybe i would even use that cash flow almost entirely to buy btc in 2023-2024.

[shahzadafzal]

CZ going nuts and almost got kicked in the balls.

At first he claimed Coinbase not holding enough bitcoins as claimed.


https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1595126765143617536


https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1595126123439923200

[JayJuanGee]

DISCLAIMER: off topic quality content

As an off-topic alternative to the mostly weird contributions of our WO's black family sheep, namely misled friend  eXPHorizon, i decided to repeat IC 1805, the heart nebula.
This time i took more care that the focus is good after locking the focuser, collect twice as much data at a higher ssensitivity, the results came out decent, while there is some haze by higher clouds in the picture, precursing a cloudy rest of the night and rainy morning.

However, for the ones who like it:



On topic: Bitcoin price feels like bottom to me (again), so it almost certainly will go down, when you match the history of my callenings (hopeingns).
Whatever, i #hodl and King Daddy (RIP) still doesn't care shit  

EDIT: Image is flipped, sorry  

EDIT2: Managed to get a used, dedicated astrophotography camera in very good condition at 2/3 of the pricce, at a fifth of its average lifetime. Looking forward to moar beautiful results in the next weeks, when the winter nights will be cold enough for crystal clear skies, too.

Just think about all the fun that you are having right now in your youth by spending all your BTC on camera equipment.

It will be worth it in your old age, when you are having to eat cat food and sleep in cardboard boxes because you spent most if not all of your BTC to deliver us original quality upside down heart nebula shots... and at least you enjoy it, right?  right?





rrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiggggggggghhhhhhhhttt?


 

.... the epic bull run that will come in 2024 & 2025.

Now the saying is 24/25 ??..  
God gives us health and a long life to live that..
(not in my mood these days/months.. some numbers are hard to digest)

Always has been.
2024 halvening & then a big, powerful bull run in 2025. Just like previous cycles!
2023 will suck!

Bitcoin's cycle of 4 years is one of the few (probably the only) Bitcoin parameter that can be used to predict future price action with some degree of success. The White Paper explains it nicely, it is a mathematical fact. Using it smartly can result in immense monetary gains (rinse-and-repeat, LFC_Bitcoin knows!). Yet, people keep ignoring it and doing their own thing (mindrustenings, daytardening, etc.). I guess it's like the elections... 4 years is just too long for the average brain to process...  

mmh one might think that the impact of the reduced (halving) coins vs the existing coins should get smaller with every cycle...

Furthermore, none of us really know shit.. We are largely using the four-year cycle as a kind of ballparking probability set - which largely would ONLY justify a doubling of the price based on the new supply constrictions every four years - except there are a variety of complications that exist to both the front loading effect of the supply which causes a decent amount of early issuance of the stock versus the flow of the new supply.. another complication is the nature of the exponential s-curve adoption that has to do with how fast various network effects grow inside of a newly adopted paradigmn shifting asset class (yes, we never had such a thing in existence ever before, even though we might attempt to draw analogue lines with gold and the internet and maybe combining the two or some other analogues that do not exactly help us to figure out the matter), and we also have human behavior in terms of how much of a battle are status quo incumbents willing to make to keep the price down like the ball under water analogy or even the greed and inefficiencies of the preexisting debt systems that can contribute towards overshooting disasters on the way down and upwards explosions outside of other attempts at manipulating in either price direction... and are the effects of shitcoins exactly factored in?

I doubt that the formula is very straight forward, even though if we attempt to weigh all the bullshit offset by the good and the power of our lil precious, we still should be able to ballparkedly estimate that the likelihood of up is greater than the likelihood of down whether or not it exactly fits within the 4 year pattern or not.

I am not going to proclaim to know shit - except that I still believe that the odds for up are pretty decent... and perhaps even the best investment that has ever been given to man on a wide-spread basis, even if a lot of men (meant as a generic) still do not have much of any clue about the asymmetric opportunity in front of them... perhaps 1% of the population kind of has a clue.. but are still likely undercoined, relatively speaking, during what is likely continuing to serve as the largest peaceful redistribution of wealth in history, even if it can be quite difficult to recognize and appreciate the direction and/or the quantity of the wealth redistribution while we are in the midst of it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

DISCLAIMER: off topic quality content

As an off-topic alternative to the mostly weird contributions of our WO's black family sheep, namely misled friend  eXPHorizon, i decided to repeat IC 1805, the heart nebula.
This time i took more care that the focus is good after locking the focuser, collect twice as much data at a higher ssensitivity, the results came out decent, while there is some haze by higher clouds in the picture, precursing a cloudy rest of the night and rainy morning.

However, for the ones who like it:



On topic: Bitcoin price feels like bottom to me (again), so it almost certainly will go down, when you match the history of my callenings (hopeingns).
Whatever, i #hodl and King Daddy (RIP) still doesn't care shit  

EDIT: Image is flipped, sorry  

EDIT2: Managed to get a used, dedicated astrophotography camera in very good condition at 2/3 of the pricce, at a fifth of its average lifetime. Looking forward to moar beautiful results in the next weeks, when the winter nights will be cold enough for crystal clear skies, too.

Just think about all the fun that you are having right now in your youth by spending all your BTC on camera equipment.

It will be worth it in your old age, when you are having to eat cat food and sleep in cardboard boxes because you spent most if not all of your BTC to deliver us original quality upside down heart nebula shots... and at least you enjoy it, right?  right?





rrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiggggggggghhhhhhhhttt?


 

With the exception that i didn't spend a single sat on my equipment. I set up a monthly DCA plan and following it, had some gear to sell, insurance refund and share of my wife's business gains where i have a small part in  

EDIT: It's also not the uber-cam, pretty low-end specs/high-quality standard, but sufficient and cooled, which takes a lot of visible noise and helps with sensitivity (more light, less exposure time). It's not common to get this particular model in such a good shape at this price. A no-brainer, really.
Sure, i also could image how much this $1000 buy is worth in ten years if i invested it in bitcoin, but we also want to get some life, don't we? It's also one of my special interests (astronomy) since i was a child. No worries  

EDIT2: Honestly, i was thinking more about selling a bit between $50k and $30k than lately. Who wants to be the next mindrust? Not me, for sure 

[Biodom]

Of note....in Houston, TX, real estate taxes are 'killing" me every darned year.
They are roughly 2% per year per current year RE value...you can have 3X of the house (in $) in Cali, 4X in Colorado for the same tax.
As valuation rises, that 2% becomes more and more. The only limit of increase is 10% increase max for the year, but if, say, property value increased 20% in a year, this means that you would get hit with 10% tax increase two years in a row, unless value drops in year 2.

I know that New Jersey tax is even more (don't know if there are any deductions, age or other in NJ).
If bitcoin will truly "make it", I would definitely buy a second house in US, but ONLY in low RE tax places (hawaii, cali, CO, maybe even Virginia), not in NH or Vermont, even though i want that house to be in a colder climate. Heck, maybe i would even look at BC, Canada.

[El duderino_]

When we were bouncing around at $18K I was telling myself that I think the next leg down will be the one to buy.  As we dip into the 15's I can't help but think this is the dip people have been waiting for.  There's still a ton of uncertainty and even more bad news on the horizon, but I think we've gone low enough in the short term (once this Genesis stuff is cleared up).  I think we're likely to start seeing a runup before the halving soon, with a small crash as we go into the halving and people cash out profits, followed by the start of the next bull run.  That's how it's gone in the past anyway.

yea, everyone pretty much knows the "drill" by now, but buying at the lows and selling closer to bumps can still result in 50% more btc in the end, albeit I definitely don't know how to do it.
I typically sell when I need money and buy when I have extra.

In this cycle, I have a more detailed game plan, though. We shall see how it goes.

I just sell when holiday or star resto
I’m almost out of coin

[El duderino_]

Btw

We will see a good Hazard tomorrow

[OutOfMemory]

When we were bouncing around at $18K I was telling myself that I think the next leg down will be the one to buy.  As we dip into the 15's I can't help but think this is the dip people have been waiting for.  There's still a ton of uncertainty and even more bad news on the horizon, but I think we've gone low enough in the short term (once this Genesis stuff is cleared up).  I think we're likely to start seeing a runup before the halving soon, with a small crash as we go into the halving and people cash out profits, followed by the start of the next bull run.  That's how it's gone in the past anyway.

yea, everyone pretty much knows the "drill" by now, but buying at the lows and selling closer to bumps can still result in 50% more btc in the end, albeit I definitely don't know how to do it.
I typically sell when I need money and buy when I have extra.

In this cycle, I have a more detailed game plan, though. We shall see how it goes.

I just sell when holiday or star resto
I’m almost out of coin

YOLO  
right?  

[El duderino_]

Indeed

Mental crazy year….

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Paashaas]

I just sell when holiday or star resto
I’m almost out of coin

I hope you don't disappear if you turn into a no-coiner ore are you holding some for longterm WO moon shot festivities?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[goldkingcoiner]

When we were bouncing around at $18K I was telling myself that I think the next leg down will be the one to buy.  As we dip into the 15's I can't help but think this is the dip people have been waiting for.  There's still a ton of uncertainty and even more bad news on the horizon, but I think we've gone low enough in the short term (once this Genesis stuff is cleared up).  I think we're likely to start seeing a runup before the halving soon, with a small crash as we go into the halving and people cash out profits, followed by the start of the next bull run.  That's how it's gone in the past anyway.

yeah we are good to go here maybe we never drop to 14.9k or less.

I would not mind hodling through another dip. Monthly candle says December will probably be red again. Monthly RSI nowhere near oversold either.

♪ ♫ ♬I say, we can hodl if we want to
We can leave your friends behind
Because your friends don't hodl
And if they don't hodl
Well, they're no friends of mine♪ ♫ ♬

Go Saudi!!!  

Fuck these Argentines!

Stellar performance from Saudi Arabia, defeating Argentinia with 1-2. Hahaha.

And Messi...this guy needs to retire his prime is long gone.

It's a glorious defeat knowing how much football means to them.

Almost as delicious as when Germany beat Brasil 7-1...

[HI-TEC99]

When we were bouncing around at $18K I was telling myself that I think the next leg down will be the one to buy.  As we dip into the 15's I can't help but think this is the dip people have been waiting for.  There's still a ton of uncertainty and even more bad news on the horizon, but I think we've gone low enough in the short term (once this Genesis stuff is cleared up).  I think we're likely to start seeing a runup before the halving soon, with a small crash as we go into the halving and people cash out profits, followed by the start of the next bull run.  That's how it's gone in the past anyway.

yeah we are good to go here maybe we never drop to 14.9k or less.

This price is a special black Friday deal.

[OutOfMemory]

The sellwalls are a bit higher. Many cheap coins waiting for being picked up.
Opportunities will be taken at any level. Fuck those greedy scammers and scandals, but i wish for a soonish bull onset, at least for El Salvador's and Saylor's success.
Especially ES, as bitcoin pioneer country, should make a positive future role model. Dictator or not, that's of lesser importance as long as he's not taking over neighbor countries (like you know who).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation