Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HI-TEC99]

BlockFi files for bankruptcy.

[Biodom]

If bitcoin was a gift (or a test?) from some friendly civilization, it seems that we are failing.
A glorious bitcoin got diluted by thousands of garbage coins, with no appreciation during the last 5 years.
It's just a fact, but if you want to soothe yourself, then count from Dec 2018 and be happy.
I guess, human folly spoiled it in the interim, imho. I mean, we seem to be unable to grow a robust financial system around bitcoin and it is just an observation that seems to be based on current facts.
The ecosystem (you can argue that bitcoin wasn't a part of it, but it is not a very solid argument) is now completely decimated-I mean tradfi companies involved in various yield schemes. Poof, gone.
Additionally, it seems that some were able to portray to their customers that their bitcoin was real when it wasn't (no bitcoin assets, just bitcoin liabilities).
I am not sure how it was accomplished.

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

BTW, I think Cathy Wood is right and Fed is making a significant policy error.
By rising rates too fast, they are sowing the seeds of another Great Depression.

[HI-TEC99]

... tradfi companies involved in various yield schemes. Poof, gone.
...

[xhomerx10]

https://twitter.com/bradmillscan/status/1589810716374339584

It is hard for me to imagine how someone can gamble with someone's pensions in this way, unless they are bribed or totally incompetent. Just 2 months ago, their CEO spoke like this :

“In terms of the risk profile, it is probably the lowest risk profile you can have in that it’s everybody else is trading on your platform,” OTPP CEO Jo Taylor told Reuters last week.

 I don't know about the others but the Ontario Teachers' pension fund is flush.  They currently have over $700k in assets per teacher (working and retired).  With over $200 billion to invest, I'm not surprised some of it ended up at Celcius... probably a nothing burger with cheese.

 Follow up:
According to the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, they invested US$95M into failing crypto platform FTX which represents about 0.05% of their total portfolio.  

Thank you for that followup

 To be honest, I had to follow up.  I would have been blown away had the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan invested more than a token amount; they've been rock solid at investing since their inception in 1990 - I often wished I had been a teacher just for the gold-plated pension plan.

[strawbs]

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/15/on-chain-data-shows-investors-waiting-changing-custody-behavior/

If one positive result of the FTX collapse is more people choosing to have custody of their own coins, we are at least moving nearer to more people using bitcoin as it was intended. i.e......

#BeYourOwnBank
 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/15/on-chain-data-shows-investors-waiting-changing-custody-behavior/

If one positive result of the FTX collapse is more people choosing to have custody of their own coins, we are at least moving nearer to more people using bitcoin as it was intended. i.e......

#BeYourOwnBank
 

It literally took a Bankman to strengthen that argument.

[wachtwoord]

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

[Biodom]

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

[Gachapin]

For those that might be interested I bought in at $36,850 with nearly all my saving account at the time. I still have my Bitcoin have not sold any of it. Bitcoin either gets to my goal price or it does not. I will not be selling before then and I will only be selling a certain amount to pay off the rest of my debts and not all of the btc if it does reach it. I remember when I first bought the amount I was very nervous about any micro movement but it is strange how calm I have been during the last few weeks. I think I owe a lot of this to my wife she has been the most understanding person. Part of me is kicking myself because I invested at a price which is over double the current price but that is just life. You cannot predict everything perfectly and anyone claiming to have foreseen this drop months ago is probably lying. I have money coming in with my job and that has been enough to build up a emergency fund if anything went wrong with the house or our health. I think that is all I need and can wait for Bitcoin to go up to my desired price.

I might do some dca at this price

It's a good time (maybe the best) to dca the shit out of it within the next months.

As you probably know, it's normal that prices might go down drastically after buying.  That could have happened at 10$/BTC, 100$/BTC, 1,000$/BTC or 10,000$/BTC.

A 50% loss is still moderate, if you take into account that we endured draw downs of 80%-90% several times on our journey.   (Buying at certain prices or not selling is actually the same in result)

I like your spirit.  It seems much stronger than the spirit of guys like mindrust^tm who couldn't even endure a few % drawdown of his investment, and became a nocoiner because of it.

[Gachapin]

BlockFi files for bankruptcy.

Probably many lost their whole stash to that ponzi in order to receive an annual 4% in return...  must hurt

[wachtwoord]

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Same here and it might very well be a third. Why on Earth would you sell so much without even a new ATH?

Are you in desperate need of liquid funds or something?

Yes when reading your post I had Mindrust in mind. I almost added "be careful not to do a mindrust" to the end of my post.

Just sell what you need in immediate liquidity and keep the rest until we get anywhere close to final state valuation. We are not anywhere close to that. I mean Bitcoin market cap is only 2x ETH. Just that relative valuation should tell you enough already.

[Biodom]

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Same here and it might very well be a third. Why on Earth would you sell so much without even a new ATH?

Are you in desperate need of liquid funds or something?

Yes when reading your post I had Mindrust in mind. I almost added "be careful not to do a mindrust" to the end of my post.

Just sell what you need in immediate liquidity and keep the rest until we get anywhere close to final state valuation. We are not anywhere close to that. I mean Bitcoin market cap is only 2x ETH. Just that relative valuation should tell you enough already.

not in need of funds and not selling before roughly 3X from here, but will not wait for 150K.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

If bitcoin was a gift (or a test?) from some friendly civilization, it seems that we are failing.
A glorious bitcoin got diluted by thousands of garbage coins, with no appreciation during the last 5 years.
It's just a fact, but if you want to soothe yourself, then count from Dec 2018 and be happy.
I guess, human folly spoiled it in the interim, imho. I mean, we seem to be unable to grow a robust financial system around bitcoin and it is just an observation that seems to be based on current facts.
The ecosystem (you can argue that bitcoin wasn't a part of it, but it is not a very solid argument) is now completely decimated-I mean tradfi companies involved in various yield schemes. Poof, gone.
Additionally, it seems that some were able to portray to their customers that their bitcoin was real when it wasn't (no bitcoin assets, just bitcoin liabilities).
I am not sure how it was accomplished.

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

BTW, I think Cathy Wood is right and Fed is making a significant policy error.
By rising rates too fast, they are sowing the seeds of another Great Depression.

No offense, but frankly I get some mindrust vibes.... not fully.  But it seems that you see the BTC experiment as failed to some extend... 

Of course you are free to think that way (if you do).  There even might be people who want you to think that way.


And this journey is hard .... every cycle has a different story and a certain breaking point in it where many lose faith  (...been there myself and it might come again for me)

2014 "bubble popped" bear felt endless for years
2019  Bitmex leverage in combination with the Corona dump (probably more shocking than the fork wars with their cycle low)
2022 mass liquidations (of ponzis) and probable recession

If you need some peace of mind, then yes, maybe sell some.  But don't get led by emotions that are fueled by bear market stories..

Bitcoin hasn't changed a bit.  It's working well and serving its purpose of giving you the most powerful property rights in human history. BTC is young but strong. 

And its real value may not always be reflected by its $ value.  In fact it never has been, not even at 69k.

[Gachapin]

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/15/on-chain-data-shows-investors-waiting-changing-custody-behavior/

If one positive result of the FTX collapse is more people choosing to have custody of their own coins, we are at least moving nearer to more people using bitcoin as it was intended. i.e......

#BeYourOwnBank
 

if that's what's needed, than we should welcome it fully

[philipma1957]

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Same here and it might very well be a third. Why on Earth would you sell so much without even a new ATH?

Are you in desperate need of liquid funds or something?

Yes when reading your post I had Mindrust in mind. I almost added "be careful not to do a mindrust" to the end of my post.

Just sell what you need in immediate liquidity and keep the rest until we get anywhere close to final state valuation. We are not anywhere close to that. I mean Bitcoin market cap is only 2x ETH. Just that relative valuation should tell you enough already.

Its easy to talk about what to sell but anyone over 50 years old with 100+ coins needs to think hard about what to do. Especially if they missed the 69k number and did not hedge some at that point..

Most people over 50 will be hard pressed to add 100 coins to their stash as it is 1.7 million at the moment.

Also If you do have 100 coins and they cost you 4k each selling off 5 is not a hard choice.

but if you have 15 coins and they cost you 8k each selling off 5 is a hard choice.

I am not in either spot I dumped most of my holdings this year.

Sank too much into the solar panels and the gear.

[psycodad]

What a well timed coincidence with the FTX implosion:

    The Federal Reserve of New York and a group of private banking firms launched a 12-week digital dollar pilot project.
    The project is titled “the regulated liability network,” and it will conduct a test on usage of digital dollar tokens by banks.
    The stablecoin market has stabilized once again, Fitch Ratings announced return of confidence to larger coins like Tether (USDT).
..

[El duderino_]

Where the dude @

[wachtwoord]

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Same here and it might very well be a third. Why on Earth would you sell so much without even a new ATH?

Are you in desperate need of liquid funds or something?

Yes when reading your post I had Mindrust in mind. I almost added "be careful not to do a mindrust" to the end of my post.

Just sell what you need in immediate liquidity and keep the rest until we get anywhere close to final state valuation. We are not anywhere close to that. I mean Bitcoin market cap is only 2x ETH. Just that relative valuation should tell you enough already.

not in need of funds and not selling before roughly 3X from here, but will not wait for 150K.

30-40% under 50k? That's quite a waste if you're not in need of liquidity (imo, of course up to you).

At least make sure not to sell early and then later FOMO back in (right below the top).