Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Davyd05]

ref: rpietila / others who 'knew'

Did they just have 'better' information than us in terms of an early 'nod' on the news?

Maybe this has been raised in the last few pages - I confess I haven't got time to look back - but is it not possible someone knew someone, who knew what was about to happen?

To accurately say 'it will go down to 500' is pretty good.

Was it a timed assault of a wave of selling and the timing was lucky - or was it timed FOR the news once it was obvious it was coming (if you had the right information).

Questions, questions.....

Go here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0
Read it.  And then, when you have time, read it again.
This is a good-quality spinoff from that thread as well: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

Multiple people here were saying $400-$500.

We were all warned and probably most of us very conscious that it just could not stay that high.

It's not necessarily the fact that they got better info, but rather the fact that people more used to doing market analysis and such calls are much more confident in their own assesment of the situation. This allows to execute for longer plans.

I sold when rpietila said, but then I bought back 100 usd below, and then I did that like 4 more times during swings. Had I been more confident, I would've stayed out from the very first time I sold and made at least 2x what I made.

this is all fud driven. As the Chinese government hasn't confirmed shit. China loves to self censor and the world freaked out.

I am quite leaning against the opposite.

Fud driven would imply mayhem and all around uncertainty.

Every day that passes I'm more convinced this was all carefully orchestrated from the get go at 150..

The amount of exchanges available now (as opposed to previous bubbles) made it possible for a much more timely and organized pump & dump.

The China card allowed for a proper and very credible source of misinformation.

that's way to tinfoil hat for me. Were still 3.5x or so above 150 on BTCChina if it was that elaborate they would've driven in right in to the floor of years past.

[seleme]

China was st for going down again, support was very thin.

[Voodah]

So I have a doubt... The FinCen claims Casascius selling the coins makes him an unregistered “money transmitter”.

If Casascius were to sell the coins with just the set of keys, but no BTC in them, would he be completely ok ?

I'm sure the Trezor guys won't be labeled a "money transmitter" right? It's like selling an ipod or whatnot..

[Davyd05]

smells like bounce, lets see

spoke a little too soon and spooked em

[Nemo1024]

I don't think I've experienced as many occasions for regret during my entire rather long life, as I did during the last month.

Just take your pick for the day:

I should have sold earlier/later.
I shouldn't have sold.
I should have bought earlier/later.
I shouldn't have bought.
I should have gone all in.
I should have been all out.
I should have been 50/50.
I should have placed a bid beforehand.
I should have placed that bit just a bit higher/lower.
I should have spread the bids.
I should have placed just one big bid.

Need to ponder over it. Maybe I am expecting too much from myself. I think there is also a healthy amount of greed at work. This often makes me second-guess my decisions and procrastinate a buy/sell a little bit longer, waiting for that last little spike/dip, or to place bids just a little too far out of reach of to think that I can place bids later, when I am sure that the price is were I want it to be.

At least I managed to decouple myself from fear earlier, and it helped a lot. I did a small botched sell on the way up, and it looks botched in the current situation. Before I would have rushed to undo it at a loss. Now I'll wait and see. From my experience almost all prices get visited at least twice. But I need to place a realistic bid, for now it's greed on the emotional termination list.

[seleme]

I don't think I've experienced as many occasions for regret during my entire rather long life, as I did during the last month.

Just take your pick for the day:

I should have sold earlier/later.
I shouldn't have sold.
I should have bought earlier/later.
I shouldn't have bought.
I should have gone all in.
I should have been all out.
I should have been 50/50.
I should have placed a bid beforehand.
I should have placed that bit just a bit higher/lower.
I should have spread the bids.
I should have placed just one big bid.

Need to ponder over it. Maybe I am expecting too much from myself. I think there is also a healthy amount of greed at work. This often makes me second-guess my decisions and procrastinate a buy/sell a little bit longer, waiting for that last little spike/dip, or to place bids just a little too far out of reach of to think that I can place bids later, when I am sure that the price is were I want it to be.

At least I managed to decouple myself from fear earlier, and it helped a lot. I did a small botched sell on the way up, and it looks botched in the current situation. Before I would have rushed to undo it at a loss. Now I'll wait and see. From my experience almost all prices get visited at least twice. But I need to place a realistic bid, for now it's greed on the emotional termination list.

Stop thinking too much about regrets mate, it won't bring you anywhere. We could all be multi millionaires if there's no regrets, you can't make it right each time, nobody can't.

[damiano]

bear attack

[humanitee]

"Hey guys let's base our decision on what China is doing even though they have no mechanism to support the price."  - Idiots, 12/18/2013

[spooderman]

Nothing hurts more than when your intuition told you to sell at a certain price, and you ignored it.

[seleme]

bear attack

China is in no man zone, 200-300 coins can move it up and down 10-15%,

[adamstgBit]

"Hey guys let's base our decision on what China is doing even though they have no mechanism to support the price."  - Idiots, 12/18/2013

[Walsoraj]

Next bottom will be in the $250-$300 range. Then rebound up to $500-ish. Finally, crash down to $100-$150 before end of year.

[freethink2013]

"Hey guys let's base our decision on what China is doing even though they have no mechanism to support the price."  - Idiots, 12/18/2013

[adamstgBit]

Nothing hurts more than when your intuition told you to sell at a certain price, and you ignored it.

when trading bitcoin your intuition is the enemy

[bitcodo]

I really like her work. You can buy her art online.

[Richy_T]

Stop thinking too much about regrets mate, it won't bring you anywhere. We could all be multi millionaires if there's no regrets, you can't make it right each time, nobody can't.

Very much this. If you are serious, put a fraction of a BTC aside to trade or just trade on paper. You will soon see if you would have called all that correctly. If you would have, you have something to go forward with. If not, you will soon see that everything becomes easier with hindsight and if we had that kind of prescience, we could just go to a casino and become millionaires playing at roulette.

[adamstgBit]

I really like her work. You can buy her art online.

she take BTC?

i'm looking to get me some art

[spooderman]

http://bitcointicker.co/combined/ is killing my computer. Fans going to so hard I feel the site is using my CPU to mine!

[Richy_T]

Nothing hurts more than when your intuition told you to sell at a certain price, and you ignored it.

when trading bitcoin your intuition is the enemy

Yep. likely it also told you to buy/sell at a bunch of other times also that would have been bad trades but you don't remember those in the same way.

[Nemo1024]

...

Stop thinking too much about regrets mate, it won't bring you anywhere. We could all be multi millionaires if there's no regrets, you can't make it right each time, nobody can't.

Thanks for the words of support.

Only time will tell if I take anything from analysing these emotions, but I think that making oneself aware of them is the first step in bringing ones emotions under control and thus making better decisions.