Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[SlipperySlope]

My fiat is not on Gox, and odds are if we go over $125 I won't buy back in. If I can get cheap coin I will.

but i do agree with you over all. Once people see they can't get coins under 100 we might jump to test 160 again.

but then again, we might see 80 soon

But clearly there is lots of fiat on the order book, it's just in the "hoping for a crash" range.

It doesn't help that all the people waiting for a crash are posting the bubble is about to burst, crash is coming, sell your btc. They fail to mention if it did drop, they'd buy it back up faster then you can blink.

Shit I hope it crashes too. It's easy money. At the same time I'm not going to go around making charts trying to scare the fish.

If you have to scare the fish, you are doing it wrong. The fish should just be doing what you want without them being aware 

Indeed, a bubble collapses because new buyers diminish. Most of the trades from here to the bottom of the bubble will be the iterative transfer from weak hands to stronger hands. Hands become weak as fewer successive buyers prop up prices.

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[fitty]

Indeed, a bubble collapses because new buyers diminish. Most of the trades from here to the bottom of the bubble will be the iterative transfer from weak hands to stronger hands. Hands become weak as fewer successive buyers prop up prices.

Agreed. It was a bumpy road, but I'm glad we're finally here. 

[Seal]

My fiat is not on Gox, and odds are if we go over $125 I won't buy back in. If I can get cheap coin I will.

but i do agree with you over all. Once people see they can't get coins under 100 we might jump to test 160 again.

but then again, we might see 80 soon

But clearly there is lots of fiat on the order book, it's just in the "hoping for a crash" range.

It doesn't help that all the people waiting for a crash are posting the bubble is about to burst, crash is coming, sell your btc. They fail to mention if it did drop, they'd buy it back up faster then you can blink.

Shit I hope it crashes too. It's easy money. At the same time I'm not going to go around making charts trying to scare the fish.

If you have to scare the fish, you are doing it wrong. The fish should just be doing what you want without them being aware 

Indeed, a bubble collapses because new buyers diminish. Most of the trades from here to the bottom of the bubble will be the iterative transfer from weak hands to stronger hands. Hands become weak as fewer successive buyers prop up prices.

Do you think we are currently in a bubble? I think the $100 mark is psychologically important to a lot of investors/speculators/traders. I'd love to hear of someones Fibonacci analysis on this one.

[ManBearPig]

*shrugs* I dunno might be stretching it a bit much to call this anything.

A more reliable indicator is this: I feel lucky

[Abandon]

*shrugs* I dunno might be stretching it a bit much to call this anything.

A more reliable indicator is this: I feel lucky

It's more likely to resume where the exponential growth left off, before going nova. Therefore not going to go down much. Look at the curves, not the lines.  

$100 price is too far gone.

[fitty]

*shrugs* I dunno might be stretching it a bit much to call this anything.

A more reliable indicator is this: I feel lucky

Highs are getting lower. Lows are getting higher. And we're settling down right on top of our historical growth line. That crazy market, it knew the truth the entire time.

[ManBearPig]

*shrugs* I dunno might be stretching it a bit much to call this anything.

A more reliable indicator is this: I feel lucky

It's more likely to resume where the exponential growth left off, before going nova. Therefore not going down much. Look at the curves, not the lines.  

Oh indeed, on the log chart the supporting trend for 2013 is largely straight and one we are slowly settling in on.

[phoenix1]

If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.
Some will likely chase it if it goes up
Some, like me, will simply walk away
I don't see it as a given that all the money sitting at lower levels will invest at higher levels if we don't go down - some of it is sitting there because it that is where it feels comfortable. A lot of the smart money won't chase the train IMO ... it is generally more disciplined than that (I do not by inference mean to classify myself as smart money  )
And I still see the potential for more early adopters to take some cash off the table for a very good profit at these levels and lower

An as yet unknown external shock, positive or negative, may determine the outcome

Slightly contrarian, not trying to scare anyone, just giving the opinion of someone who is new to Bitcoin (about 6 weeks of exposure) and thinking about not jumping on board unless we go down significantly from here.
Until there is more utility it is purely a speculative investment as far as I can tell. These things will come I am sure. Well, everyone says they will. But until then, it caries a very large 'Caveat Emptor' tag, which for me means I don't want to invest at current levels.

That is not to say that I do not find the whole concept very interesting indeed

Time will tell ... I am as clueless about the future direction as everyone else  

[ChartBuddy]

[fitty]

Oh indeed, on the log chart the supporting trend for 2013 is largely straight and one we are slowly settling in on.

People are quick to dismiss the run to 266 as a bubble. Which is was. However the exposure, Bitcoin press, spike in searches, downloads, growth globally, lots of very positive side affects. The old saying that there's no such thing as bad publicity, turned out to be true for Bitcoin. While you can discount the rapid price surge up to 266, a lot of legitimate value was indeed created. Whether that's 5%, %15, 30%, that's up for debate.

Take our growth line, add in a bump for the 266 bubble, landing at $105-$125 sounds about right. Days of sideways action. Where's the panic sellers? Where's the panic buyers? Panic has left the building. The people on the sidelines are praying for a crash so they can jump back in. When a bubble collapses, people flee the market. You have panic selling. We had an epic crash. The idea that people are "slowly" fleeing the market and "slowly" panic selling and that it's just an extended collapse is turning into a bad punchline. The only people left saying that are people trying to get back in at a discount.

[Coinseeker]

That discounts everyone who bought in at $200-$260 and are sitting on huge losses right now.  I'd assume most are looking to bail out of this market as soon as possible but have no choice but to pray for some sort of increase to at least minimize the damage.  If we should see a spike back to $160-$180, I'd expect a flood of selling at the peak as people cut their losses and run for the hills.  Don't think I need to specify what happens to the markets next...

[ManBearPig]

Bit out of date now but:



If something has a massive underlying trend it eventually reverts to it.

World population over the last 12,000 years (log scale):

[phoenix1]

The idea that people are "slowly" fleeing the market and "slowly" panic selling and that it's just an extended collapse is turning into a bad punchline. The only people left saying that are people trying to get back in at a discount.

I agree with about the oxymoronic use of 'slow' panic   ... that don't make much sense ...
However, I dont agree that anyone who wants to buy in at a lower level than this is trying to get in at a discount. There are a lot of assumptions in that. I know that is not exactly what you said, but similar things have been said by many people, so I am just pointing it out that it ain't necessarily so. I am sure there are people running round trying to scare people so they can buy cheaper something they believe to be worth more (I see them!). Some others amongst us just don't want to buy at these prices and see too much risk here and now.

[Coinseeker]

I'm in the same exact boat.  I have some Bitcoins now at ~90 and I thought that was high.  I've got fiat on standby but I absolutely refuse to buy at these prices.  And if it continues to rise, then Bitcoin is not for me (as far as trading goes) and I'll simply move to another crypto.  I would guess this is a good portion of the sentiment of those on the sidelines.  It's just getting to a price point where average traders are getting priced out.

I've seen all the $500, $1000 and even $300k coin statements.  I truly hope that happens for people but if that's the case, who are these people paying $500-$300k per coin?  Because I know who it's not going to be.   

[Missionary]

I've seen all the $500, $1000 and even $300k coin statements.  I truly hope that happens for people but if that's the case, who are these people paying $500-$300k per coin?  

When/if the time comes for the $300k coins:

A) People will have stopped refering to whole coins when comparing prices, rather mBTC or most likely even lower.
B) Except for "people" to buy in at those prices, that kind of growth requires governments treating Bitcoin as a reserve currency.

[phoenix1]

I'm in the same exact boat.  I have some Bitcoins now at ~90 and I thought that was high.  I've got fiat on standby but I absolutely refuse to buy at these prices.  And if it continues to rise, then Bitcoin is not for me (as far as trading goes) and I'll simply move to another crypto.  I would guess this is a good portion of the sentiment of those on the sidelines.  It's just getting to a price point where average traders are getting priced out.

I've seen all the $500, $1000 and even $300k coin statements.  I truly hope that happens for people but if that's the case, who are these people paying $500-$300k per coin?  

The sheeple ....
The ones that are the very last to buy once all technological barriers have been overcome, all governments have been dissolved or have approved it, all transfer to fiat fees have been removed, and your grandma can use it while knitting you a pair of socks.
At the moment it is way too complex and immature for anything close to mass adoption IMO. The best that could be hoped for would be saturation of 'the above-average intelligece, relatively computer literate, high risk apetite with libertarian tendencies' group. Still quite large, but very definitely a minority group. To expand past this, things have to change a lot, which is lucky, as it gives time to get better infrastructure in place

[KillaMarci]

I'm actually quite fine with the price being stable around 115-120, now you can finally actually pay for things using Bitcoin without worrying about the price fluctuating so much. Yesterday I paid for the Humble Bundle using Bitcoin, then I bought coffee and now I was just about to re-new my server subscription and what do I see?




It's....it's beautiful! 

[dbru77]

If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.
Some will likely chase it if it goes up
Some, like me, will simply walk away
I don't see it as a given that all the money sitting at lower levels will invest at higher levels if we don't go down - some of it is sitting there because it that is where it feels comfortable. A lot of the smart money won't chase the train IMO ... it is generally more disciplined than that (I do not by inference mean to classify myself as smart money  )
And I still see the potential for more early adopters to take some cash off the table for a very good profit at these levels and lower

An as yet unknown external shock, positive or negative, may determine the outcome

Slightly contrarian, not trying to scare anyone, just giving the opinion of someone who is new to Bitcoin (about 6 weeks of exposure) and thinking about not jumping on board unless we go down significantly from here.
Until there is more utility it is purely a speculative investment as far as I can tell. These things will come I am sure. Well, everyone says they will. But until then, it caries a very large 'Caveat Emptor' tag, which for me means I don't want to invest at current levels.

That is not to say that I do not find the whole concept very interesting indeed

Time will tell ... I am as clueless about the future direction as everyone else  

Exactly.

Many statements (ro should i say fantasies) in this forum go beyond my comprehension. Like in a cult, where everybody believes somthing and nobody can really explain why.

Bitcoin could be a great thing, but I get tired of reading "I'm just waiting for cheap coins" or "look at those weak hands, I know more than them hahaha" (well maybe you don't?) or "I miss my volatility,how am i supposed to get rich with this bitch when it doesn't move" or "it can only go up"

It could very well crash into the ground anytime and dissolve into a probably pretty painful memory.

If anyone believes "it can only go up", why not buy now? Because it could crash? lol
If the bulls puit money where their mouth is, they'd buy like there's no tomorrow.
That's obviously not the case - Why?

Anyway, just a few thoughts.

[phoenix1]

I'm actually quite fine with the price being stable around 115-120, now you can finally actually pay for things using Bitcoin without worrying about the price fluctuating so much. Yesterday I paid for the Humble Bundle using Bitcoin, then I bought coffee and now I was just about to re-new my server subscription and what do I see?

It's....it's beautiful! 

That's great ... you are actually spending your Bitcoins ... most people seem to only want to hold them til they reach the moon
And the 3% discount is great ... should probably cover all the slippage involved in buying Bitcoins in the first place

These obstacles need to be removed ...

[Coinseeker]

115$ are cheap coins right now, and 500$ will be cheap in a few months, until Bitcoin discover his real price, i say at least 100,000$ each

This is a statement made on emotion and not facts.  I agree with this:

When/if the time comes for the $300k coins:

A) People will have stopped refering to whole coins when comparing prices, rather mBTC or most likely even lower.
B) Except for "people" to buy in at those prices, that kind of growth requires governments treating Bitcoin as a reserve currency.

I'm not saying it's impossible.  Like I said I own bitcoins, far fewer than most I'm sure but still...a $100k+ coins would be more lovely than what KillaMarci just posted.  (Which is awesome BTW)  

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go and warn granny.  You know how many socks she could knit for $300k.