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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21577205 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (143 posts by 33 users deleted.)
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May 13, 2013, 10:03:23 AM
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May 13, 2013, 10:09:37 AM
 #7402

IF we do succeed then these prices will seem like nothing (do the math regarding the float). If we don't succeed then I'm sure we still took part in one of the greatest experiments in recent history. Think about that - governments and wealthy individuals have always controlled money. This is the first step away from that (that I can think of). Still nice to say, years from now, that you tried to do your part to change things.  And if things really take off, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that it is truly all about sharing. I'm game when that time comes, we are all in this together. (Emphasis by Pzi4nk)

I like your overall message but I wonder about the part I highlighted. Do you really think bitcoin is immune from the manipulations of wealthy people, much less governments?

Not to be inflamitory but it seems to me wherever there's a market it can be manipulated by great wealth.

Its About Sharing is 100% right. I will answer you with a quote:

Quote
Give me control of a nations money supply, and I care not who makes it’s laws. Mater Amschel Rothschild, founder of the Rothschild banking dynasty.

The ones controlling the money supply are ruling de facto. Bitcoin takes that power away from them. And this is why, sooner or later, governments (which strictly follow the commands of the real rulers, the financial lobby) will try to destroy Bitcoin.
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May 13, 2013, 10:10:21 AM
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IF we do succeed then these prices will seem like nothing (do the math regarding the float). If we don't succeed then I'm sure we still took part in one of the greatest experiments in recent history. Think about that - governments and wealthy individuals have always controlled money. This is the first step away from that (that I can think of). Still nice to say, years from now, that you tried to do your part to change things.  And if things really take off, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that it is truly all about sharing. I'm game when that time comes, we are all in this together. (Emphasis by Pzi4nk)

I like your overall message but I wonder about the part I highlighted. Do you really think bitcoin is immune from the manipulations of wealthy people, much less governments?

Not to be inflamitory but it seems to me wherever there's a market it can be manipulated by great wealth.

The thing is (at least for me): parasitic governments currently have (at least) two major ways to milk the populous: taxes and "the hidden inflation tax". The latter one will not be possible with sound money. This means governments will have to produce their income from visible taxation. They also have to act responsibly fiscally (just like every other entity) because they wont be able to just borrow in a virtually unlimited fashion.

This hopefully results in leaner, more responsible and more accountable governments and a overall better situation for the people living under them.

That's exactly my hope too. Smaller governments. 100 years ago people only interacted with the government to get births, deaths and marriages registered, and perhaps a passport. Today governments are constantly in the face of every citizen. Clearly they should be slashed by something like 50% or 75% until they only make up 10% of the economy. Everyone would have vastly improved freedoms and quality of life. Once the massive distortions caused by the debt-based money and shadow-banking systems are eliminated national economies would hum along smoothly. Will it happen..?
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May 13, 2013, 10:15:30 AM
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The thing is (at least for me): parasitic governments currently have (at least) two major ways to milk the populous: taxes and "the hidden inflation tax". The latter one will not be possible with sound money. This means governments will have to produce their income from visible taxation. They also have to act responsibly fiscally (just like every other entity) because they wont be able to just borrow in a virtually unlimited fashion.

This hopefully results in leaner, more responsible and more accountable governments and a overall better situation for the people living under them.

This.
Also transactions between me and the government (=taxes) would be part of the blockchain.
The government could then be made directly accountable for spending coins from their addresses.
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May 13, 2013, 10:36:09 AM
 #7405

It can last weeks.

That's not very long in the grand scheme of things.

I beg to differ. Confidence is about knowing we won't tank. Compare with 2011. We're doing pretty good.

And what happens if we do tank?

Don't be all in or all out. If we tank than use your cash to pick up more shares. If we go up then at least you don't have to buy in later 2X as much.

I know this is a speculation thread but we shouldn't really lose sight of the point here. It isn't about making money per say. It is about helping a new money to get a foothold. It is about being an early adopter to a revolutionary and risky idea. I'm cool with all that.

So, instead of what others find to be a good entry point, make that decision for yourself. All I have to look at is the current "float" - 11 million is nothing. That is worth taking a chance over.

IF we do succeed then these prices will seem like nothing (do the math regarding the float). If we don't succeed then I'm sure we still took part in one of the greatest experiments in recent history. Think about that - governments and wealthy individuals have always controlled money. This is the first step away from that (that I can think of). Still nice to say, years from now, that you tried to do your part to change things.  And if things really take off, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that it is truly all about sharing. I'm game when that time comes, we are all in this together.

I'm afraid I can't see that.  Yeah, it makes money for people, but it makes more money for people who have more money.  This shifts some of that control around a bit, but it isn't revolutionary in that way.  It is revolutionary in that it allows people to trade without involving fiat.  That potential isn't realized yet, but it is there.  The potential to make it all about sharing?  Not so much.

Sounds like you are too close to the tree and can't quite make out the forest. I don't disagree with you, Yes, in the near term you are right. I don't think BTC is THE answer, but I do think it is taking money in a new direction. In the end, money won't matter, but till we get there we are taking steps. In the meantime till money is not about power, there are choices - time based currencies are a great idea and will probably compliment BTC. But getting away Fiat currencies that back wars/killing should be at the top of our humane list of money's problems.

You know how they say BTC will only have 21 million coins in 2140 (or whenever that is) - you know, I don't think it will get that far. Money as we know it, money as BTC, etc only has a few more decades if that (yes, imo). As long as money allows power over others, as does our political system, we will always be searching for more. And we will probably get there. If we are every going to truly live together, a much more star trek type system on money will be in order. When we get there and look back all these forms of money will seem barbaric, but each new one is hopefully a step in the right direction.
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May 13, 2013, 10:38:53 AM
 #7406

This.
Also transactions between me and the government (=taxes) would be part of the blockchain.
The government could then be made directly accountable for spending coins from their addresses.

This is a very important aspect of Bitcoin. It forces institutions who would want to collect taxes via Bitcoin into honesty, because everybody can see their transactions. Also as mentioned, it takes away the option of the hidden inflation tax from them.

In my opinion Bitcoin has such attributes, which make it destined to be attacked by governments and their financial backers. At the same time it's built with the anticipation of such attacks in mind and promises not to be subject to control from any one entity. I say it shall be a grand fight!
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May 13, 2013, 10:43:24 AM
 #7407

IF we do succeed then these prices will seem like nothing (do the math regarding the float). If we don't succeed then I'm sure we still took part in one of the greatest experiments in recent history. Think about that - governments and wealthy individuals have always controlled money. This is the first step away from that (that I can think of). Still nice to say, years from now, that you tried to do your part to change things.  And if things really take off, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that it is truly all about sharing. I'm game when that time comes, we are all in this together. (Emphasis by Pzi4nk)

I like your overall message but I wonder about the part I highlighted. Do you really think bitcoin is immune from the manipulations of wealthy people, much less governments?

Not to be inflamitory but it seems to me wherever there's a market it can be manipulated by great wealth.

Its About Sharing is 100% right. I will answer you with a quote:

Quote
Give me control of a nations money supply, and I care not who makes it’s laws. Mater Amschel Rothschild, founder of the Rothschild banking dynasty.

The ones controlling the money supply are ruling de facto. Bitcoin takes that power away from them. And this is why, sooner or later, governments (which strictly follow the commands of the real rulers, the financial lobby) will try to destroy Bitcoin.

That is all I'm saying. BTC is a step in the right direction. These viritual currencies will show us that money is in large part about trust. And since no one trusts governments, the next few logical steps seem clear. The masses will never move en mass unless they have to. At least with BTC there is an intermediary to start moving out of state controlled money's and I think the Chinese see BTC as a bit of a savior from them and the USD. It is probably going to get "exciting" there soon. Seems like Syria is on the agenda and talks between the west and Russia/China are centering around it. I really hope we can avoid disaster there, that is a tipping point imo.
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May 13, 2013, 10:44:37 AM
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May 13, 2013, 10:48:08 AM
 #7409

This.
Also transactions between me and the government (=taxes) would be part of the blockchain.
The government could then be made directly accountable for spending coins from their addresses.

This is a very important aspect of Bitcoin. It forces institutions who would want to collect taxes via Bitcoin into honesty, because everybody can see their transactions. Also as mentioned, it takes away the option of the hidden inflation tax from them.

In my opinion Bitcoin has such attributes, which make it destined to be attacked by governments and their financial backers. At the same time it's built with the anticipation of such attacks in mind and promises not to be subject to control from any one entity. I say it shall be a grand fight!

Yes, the ledger is sweet, is it not?  Grin
But they don't have to hide anything as they often say don't worry to us about "them" watching us, unless we are hiding things from them. An open and honest society in both directions. We are the government is what people and "governments" alike are starting to realize....

I envision having many crypto currencies in the near future, just as there are many state run currencies. Governments will be scrambling, as will militaries. There is just too much to keep an eye on. We are now in the Universe's hands...

Anyone looking for a Virus... look no further than BTC... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijPE7fe4XTg
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May 13, 2013, 11:02:58 AM
 #7410

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May 13, 2013, 11:07:28 AM
 #7411

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-12/visualizing-how-bitcoin-transaction-works
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May 13, 2013, 11:41:41 AM
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seen here first

http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/software/bitcoin-the-cryptoanarchists-answer-to-cash
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May 13, 2013, 12:00:17 PM
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ahhh...it's the libertarian morning show in the Wall Observer.  I'm gonna need more coffee...and tin foil.   Roll Eyes

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May 13, 2013, 12:02:37 PM
 #7414

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May 13, 2013, 12:14:49 PM
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well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for Smiley
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May 13, 2013, 12:15:24 PM
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well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for Smiley

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells
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May 13, 2013, 12:22:08 PM
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well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for Smiley

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.
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May 13, 2013, 12:29:09 PM
 #7418

Here are the results of my recent (mtgox) order book calculations. As always, to be taken with a large grain of salt, since the order book is of course a primary tool for manipulation.

Apart from the obvious findings (rather big ask wall at 120; significant drop of bid/ask ratio over the weekend, from a peak of ~140 to ~120, now slightly going up again), the average of the 'all orders market execution price' is going up again, after going down about 10 USD over the weekend, indicating more bids/less asks and a better price composition. Finally, price composition in the range of the previous bid/ask totals also improved slightly, prices up about 2% compared to 12h ago.

Looks good to me. Word of caution though: with similar, in fact: even better values at the end of last week (my calculations showed a peak of the above values on the 10th), we barely passed 120, and not for long either. So I'm not exactly holding my breath that we're going to break 125 this week, although I'm not ruling it out either.

On the other hand, as I have posted multiple times now, as long as those metrics (and the related money flow metrics) don't substantially change in the coming days, I really don't see the potential for any sharp decline either.
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May 13, 2013, 12:34:24 PM
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well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for Smiley

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Remember Europe, a small group of countries between US and India (timezone wise) Smiley
Well the FTSE is down -0.21%  and the rest of Europe is only down between 0%-0.5%, any impending crash would have been indicated in London before the US opened. So this fall is not indicated, in fact Nikkei is up 1.25%, plus I don't think I have seen any evidence that the worlds stock markets have any direct effect on BTC price. Its is a little world of its own at the moment.


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May 13, 2013, 12:36:51 PM
 #7420



well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for Smiley

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Remember Europe, a small group of countries between US and India (timezone wise) Smiley
Well the FTSE is down -0.21%  and the rest of Europe is only down between 0%-0.5%, any impending crash would have been indicated in London before the US opened. So this fall is not indicated, in fact Nikkei is up 1.25%, plus I don't think I have seen any evidence that the worlds stock markets have any direct effect on BTC price. Its is a little world of its own at the moment.




Wouldn't base anything on Nikkei they are printing money like crazy and all the exporters are reaping the rewards.
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