Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

My circle of fellow geeks here and nobody said,  "Happy Pi Day!"
Sheesh!

right after 259,259.259

now the question is can anyone find a relationship for those two numbers?

[Biodom]

My circle of fellow geeks here and nobody said,  "Happy Pi Day!"
Sheesh!

right after 259,259.259

now the question is can anyone find a relationship for those two numbers?

interesting...your number is a repeating rational number, but Pi is an transcendental number.
hmmm.

well...your number corresponds to a number of Sp21 being shut down in the prior post..i guess you saw it on 3/14, hence the connection?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Last I looked Iran borders on the Caspian Sea as does Russia. So if Russia sends a large navy ship to Iran will the USA sink it?

Or better yet if Russia send a sub to Iran across or should I say  under the Caspian Sea to  Iran are we going to sink it.

The logic of attacking Iran escapes me.

So prevention of Iran from Nuke missiles means preventing Russia from sending some to them.

Really!!!  You like Iran's mantra "DEATH TO AMERICA" and want them to have NUKES?  

You must be perfectly okay with the fact that Iran is responsible for killing over 1,000 Americans - and wanting to kill us all!

I guess you'd be like scumbag Hussein Obama and stupid dead-brain Biden - and send them billions in cash and kick the can down the road!  

[philipma1957]

My circle of fellow geeks here and nobody said,  "Happy Pi Day!"
Sheesh!

right after 259,259.259

now the question is can anyone find a relationship for those two numbers?

interesting...your number is a repeating rational number, but Pi is an transcendental number.
hmmm.

well...your number corresponds to a number of Sp21 being shut down in the prior post..i guess you saw it on 3/14, hence the connection?

hmm there must be a mental link due to mathematics between me and homer as the posting is quite amazing unless of course homer saw the post and it triggered him to post the pi post which would mean it stimulated his math and time keeping skills.

Still 259,259.259 happened due to the 270 divider which has a relationship to 9 which is the king of repeaters.

hmm Beatles number 9 number 9 number 9 were they referring to the magic dividing power of nine in that song.

Hmm maybe this all is a math construct about to be unraveled  by none other than

Trumpppppppp!


holy fuck are we about to all awaken!!

[Hueristic]

It's impossible to seize something that doesn't exist, yellow cake anyone?

Actually I am a fan of a quality cheesecake not a yellow cake.

Last I looked Iran borders on the Caspian Sea as does Russia. So if Russia sends a large navy ship to Iran will the USA sink it?

Or better yet if Russia send a sub to Iran across or should I say  under the Caspian Sea to  Iran are we going to sink it.

The logic of attacking Iran escapes me.

So prevention of Iran from Nuke missiles means preventing Russia from sending some to them.

I dunno, its a mystery.

https://xcancel.com/realDonaldTrump/status/255784560904773633

[philipma1957]

Last I looked Iran borders on the Caspian Sea as does Russia. So if Russia sends a large navy ship to Iran will the USA sink it?

Or better yet if Russia send a sub to Iran across or should I say  under the Caspian Sea to  Iran are we going to sink it.

The logic of attacking Iran escapes me.

So prevention of Iran from Nuke missiles means preventing Russia from sending some to them.

Really!!!  You like Iran's mantra "DEATH TO AMERICA" and want them to have NUKES?  

No and do you want us to sink every Russian ship in the Caspian Sea?  Since nukes are easy peasy to ship on a ship.

Have you ever watch a dozen marines watch a 16 foot long tube capped on both ends

and about 16 inches in diameter.  In fact 8 of those tubes guarded for a total of 24 hours a day while shipped from the P.I. to Diego Garcia .

The only way to stop that shipment would be to sink that boat.

Russia ships back and forth to Iran on the Caspian Sea on a constant basis.

I do not think the USA  will be sinking those ships and or Subs  that can travel on that sea on a constant basis thus we simply can not stop and never could stop Iran from having Nukes.

Look back in the day Russia loaded Cuba with nuke missiles I remember ducking and covering under my fucking desk on a daily drill for about a year straight .

Then Russia finally back offed and pulled the missiles out of Cuba.

So is this the 1960's and repeat the game this time with Trumpppppp and Putin

rather than Kennedy and Khrushchev

[philipma1957]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/videos-satellite-images-show-irans-100000089.html



Videos and satellite images show Iran's drone army puncturing U.S. and allied defenses
Jane Lytvynenko
Sat, March 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT

The buzz came before the explosion. An aerial vehicle dove from the cloudless sky toward its target at Camp Buehring, a U.S. military base in Kuwait. It struck near a running track with a fiery plume of black smoke.

“Oh s---t,” a man recording from the base said. “Oh my God. Oh, that was right here. They’re f---ing getting… They’re starting to dial into our building.”

The video ends as the smoke billows in the desert outpost.

The footage of this attack, posted online on March 1 but possibly filmed earlier, is one of over 30 open-source videos and satellite images verified by NBC News showing Iranian drone strikes and interceptions by the U.S. and its allies across seven countries. Apparent targets include military bases, transportation hubs, energy infrastructure and diplomatic centers. In 21 of 26 videos, drones appear to reach their targets.



21 out of 26 successful attacks

moron will likely be nuking soon

been good knowing all of you.



there is some hope if you read the full story above here is the greatest quote of all time.

The U.S. is one of over 10 countries formally requesting help from Ukraine, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said in a post on social media that Ukraine has dispatched three teams to the Middle East.

The Trump administration’s official ask came six days after the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, according to a post from Zelenskyy on social media at the time, despite Ukraine offering it months earlier. Ukraine has nearly four years of experience dealing with the weapon, earned at the expense of infrastructure destroyed and civilian lives lost as it pleaded for air defense.

“Ukraine can contribute to stabilization,” said Zelenskyy on Friday at a news conference in France.

that's right Trump come begging from Mr Z

hah

[BTCETFInvestor]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/videos-satellite-images-show-irans-100000089.html



Videos and satellite images show Iran's drone army puncturing U.S. and allied defenses
Jane Lytvynenko
Sat, March 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT

The buzz came before the explosion. An aerial vehicle dove from the cloudless sky toward its target at Camp Buehring, a U.S. military base in Kuwait. It struck near a running track with a fiery plume of black smoke.

“Oh s---t,” a man recording from the base said. “Oh my God. Oh, that was right here. They’re f---ing getting… They’re starting to dial into our building.”

The video ends as the smoke billows in the desert outpost.

The footage of this attack, posted online on March 1 but possibly filmed earlier, is one of over 30 open-source videos and satellite images verified by NBC News showing Iranian drone strikes and interceptions by the U.S. and its allies across seven countries. Apparent targets include military bases, transportation hubs, energy infrastructure and diplomatic centers. In 21 of 26 videos, drones appear to reach their targets.



21 out of 26 successful attacks

moron will likely be nuking soon

been good knowing all of you.

Phil - So, you think this military campaign against Iran to protect Americans and Israelis will be a pyrrhic victory? 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/videos-satellite-images-show-irans-100000089.html



Videos and satellite images show Iran's drone army puncturing U.S. and allied defenses
Jane Lytvynenko
Sat, March 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT

The buzz came before the explosion. An aerial vehicle dove from the cloudless sky toward its target at Camp Buehring, a U.S. military base in Kuwait. It struck near a running track with a fiery plume of black smoke.

“Oh s---t,” a man recording from the base said. “Oh my God. Oh, that was right here. They’re f---ing getting… They’re starting to dial into our building.”

The video ends as the smoke billows in the desert outpost.

The footage of this attack, posted online on March 1 but possibly filmed earlier, is one of over 30 open-source videos and satellite images verified by NBC News showing Iranian drone strikes and interceptions by the U.S. and its allies across seven countries. Apparent targets include military bases, transportation hubs, energy infrastructure and diplomatic centers. In 21 of 26 videos, drones appear to reach their targets.



21 out of 26 successful attacks

moron will likely be nuking soon

been good knowing all of you.

Phil - So, you think this military campaign against Iran to protect Americans and Israelis will be a pyrrhic victory?  

Phil - You must be very proud of what Hussein Obama did with American taxpayer money to help Iran fund their terrorism as shown in the video link below!    

For someone that served in the U.S. Navy and retired from a U.S. government job with the IRS; you should be ashamed of yourself!

https://youtu.be/tLJfLLSpndA?t=3  

[BTCETFInvestor]

Will BTC miners in the not-too-distant future have to rely on fees people pay to use the network rather than the new coins they 'mint'?


As of March 2026, the 20 millionth Bitcoin has officially been mined, leaving less than 1 million BTC left to be created over the next 114 years.

While the "95% mined" figure is a powerful psychological milestone, its impact over the next decade is less about the total number and more about the flow of new coins. Here is how that dynamic will likely play out:

1. The "Drip" Becomes a Drought
Even though 95% of the supply exists, the rate at which the remaining 5% enters the market is slowing down dramatically due to the halving schedule.

Next 10 Years: You will live through two more halvings (expected in 2028 and 2032).

Supply Crunch: By 2032, the block reward will drop to roughly 0.78 BTC. This means the daily "new supply" will be a tiny fraction of current institutional demand.

The Math: While it took 17 years to mine the first 20 million, it will take until 2140 to mine the final million.

2. Institutional "Supply Absorption"
The next decade will likely be defined by "Passive Absorption." We are already seeing companies like MicroStrategy and other corporate treasuries buying BTC at a rate nearly 3 times faster than miners can produce it.

Exchanges: Bitcoin held on exchanges has been in a long-term decline. When 95% is already "out there," but much of it is held by long-term "HODLers" or ETFs, the liquid supply (what's actually for sale) is much lower than the 20 million figure suggests.

3. Price Floor & Volatility
Basic economics suggests that if demand remains constant (or grows) while the new supply is cut by 50% every four years, the "clearing price" must rise.

Impact: This creates a "supply shock" effect. Historically, the years following a halving (like 2029 and 2033) have seen significant price appreciation as the market adjusts to the new, tighter issuance.

4. Shift in Security Economics
As we approach the final 1 million coins, the conversation will shift from issuance to transaction fees.

In the next decade, miners will have to rely more on the fees people pay to use the network rather than the new coins they "mint." This will test the long-term sustainability of Bitcoin’s security model.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

I find this interesting; I think others will too!

Predicting the exact price of Bitcoin is notoriously difficult, but with the 20 millionth coin recently mined in March 2026, we can use established economic models and institutional forecasts to project the landscape for the next two halvings.

1. April 2028: The 5th Halving (The "Supply Shock" Phase)

By April 2028, the block reward will drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Historically, the market begins to "price in" the halving about 6–12 months in advance.

Likely Price Range: $150,000 – $500,000.

Standard Chartered and Pantera Capital have issued forecasts in this range, citing the "halving-driven supply shock" as the primary driver.

The "Cost of Production" Floor: Some analysts estimate the cost to mine a single Bitcoin will jump to roughly $142,000 immediately after the 2028 halving. Since Bitcoin rarely stays below its production cost for long, this creates a strong psychological and economic floor.

Investor Demand: Expect "Extreme Institutionalization." By 2028, Bitcoin ETFs will likely be a standard part of pension funds and sovereign wealth fund portfolios. Demand will shift from "speculative" to "strategic reserve."

2. April 2032: The 6th Halving (The "Scarcity" Phase)

In 2032, the reward drops to a tiny 0.78125 BTC. By this point, over 98% of all Bitcoin will have been mined.

Likely Price Range: $500,000 – $1,200,000+.

Ark Invest (Cathie Wood): Despite recent adjustments due to stablecoin competition, Ark’s base case for the early 2030s remains around $1 million per coin.

The $1 Million Milestone: Many models, including the Stock-to-Flow and Power Law, converge on the $1M mark around the 2032–2033 cycle.

Investor Demand: We will likely see a "Supply Vacuum." By 2032, the daily issuance of new Bitcoin will be so low (roughly 112 BTC per day globally) that a single large corporation or mid-sized country's treasury buy could trigger massive price swings.


Look at the huge projected increase in Institutional Allocation between 2028 vs. 2032:

[cAPSLOCK]

For those who are up for a bit of a wilder take on interpreting what's happening in the world from a game theoretical perspective, the recent Brett Weinstein interview with Tucker Carlson is pretty interesting.

I'm neither a huge fan of either of those two nor do I hate them. Sometimes I think Tucker could be read into something. I mean his dad worked for Voice of America... almost obvious

But but Winestein's interpretation of what he sees happening is fairly apocalyptic, very interesting, and I think prescient.

I suppose I should be careful with the apocalypse word. 

[vapourminer]

looks like Iran had to shut down a lot of mines.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

this is an interest effect of the war which will help all miners other than those in Iran

maybe 70eh of gear is offline

[...]

what is more interesting is did it get blown up?

and will Iran attempt to blow up or has blown up some other middle eastern countries

mines.

what makes you think its Iran that had all that hash that went offline?

[BTCETFInvestor]

For those who are up for a bit of a wilder take on interpreting what's happening in the world from a game theoretical perspective, the recent Brett Weinstein interview with Tucker Carlson is pretty interesting.

I'm neither a huge fan of either of those two nor do I hate them. Sometimes I think Tucker could be read into something. I mean his dad worked for Voice of America... almost obvious

But but Winestein's interpretation of what he sees happening is fairly apocalyptic, very interesting, and I think prescient.

I suppose I should be careful with the apocalypse word. 

How about opinionated hypermetropia?

Was there supposed to be a link to the interview?

[philipma1957]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/videos-satellite-images-show-irans-100000089.html



Videos and satellite images show Iran's drone army puncturing U.S. and allied defenses
Jane Lytvynenko
Sat, March 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT

The buzz came before the explosion. An aerial vehicle dove from the cloudless sky toward its target at Camp Buehring, a U.S. military base in Kuwait. It struck near a running track with a fiery plume of black smoke.

“Oh s---t,” a man recording from the base said. “Oh my God. Oh, that was right here. They’re f---ing getting… They’re starting to dial into our building.”

The video ends as the smoke billows in the desert outpost.

The footage of this attack, posted online on March 1 but possibly filmed earlier, is one of over 30 open-source videos and satellite images verified by NBC News showing Iranian drone strikes and interceptions by the U.S. and its allies across seven countries. Apparent targets include military bases, transportation hubs, energy infrastructure and diplomatic centers. In 21 of 26 videos, drones appear to reach their targets.



21 out of 26 successful attacks

moron will likely be nuking soon

been good knowing all of you.

Phil - So, you think this military campaign against Iran to protect Americans and Israelis will be a pyrrhic victory? 

Like it or not

Russia
China
USA

Can kill 70-95% of humanity.

Pakistan
India
France
Great Britan all have some nukes

Oh Israel has some.


USA left every war since Korea.

Korea was a push since South Korea still around.

So the only things this war will do is sell missiles and drones.

It will also jack up oil prices.

So I don't not see the benefit to us in the usa.

Unless you make missles, drones or drill oil in a safe place.

I saw that 2500 Marines are getting deployed but I no longer can find the link.

The marine deployment means there are far more drones then were
thought.

[philipma1957]

looks like Iran had to shut down a lot of mines.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

this is an interest effect of the war which will help all miners other than those in Iran

maybe 70eh of gear is offline

[...]

what is more interesting is did it get blown up?

and will Iran attempt to blow up or has blown up some other middle eastern countries

mines.

what makes you think its Iran that had all that hash that went offline?

Looking for a link.  But I will mention I was asked about moving 10,000 miners out of Iran about a week before the war started.

Person want to know if I had a shipping source.

So based on that question back around Feb 20 and 259,259.259 s21xps worth of hash dropping off line.

I am guessing the mines there were big.

I had a chance to get 2 cent hosting in Iran back in 2022 they had 40 megawatts which is about 10,000 s21xps.


I could be wrong and only 10,000 of the 259,259.259 s21xps offline are from Iran.

But the s21xp makes 8.30 a day and burns 4.20 a day at 5 cents about 4.10 dollars a day

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com