Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

[philipma1957]

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

okay silver down gold down btc up

repeat silver down gold down btc up

repeat silver down gold down btc up.


now realize just how much silver and gold can feed btc price.

Smile

[cAPSLOCK]

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

It's acting like 74 as an important door to be knocked on. I think this is the second time knocking.

[BTCETFInvestor]

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

Yep! Bitcoin has just completed 8 consecutive green daily sessions. This is the longest winning streak since late 2025 - clearly a shift from aggressive selling to steady accumulation. And of course the price has cleared that nasty $70,000–$72,000 range, which acted as a major 'ceiling' of sorts for the past 6 weeks. It also reclaimed the 50-day EMA, an indicator used to separate short-term bearish and bullish trends.

All analysts are thought to be bullish, with many maintaining a year-end target average of $150,000+ - citing the fact that nearly 60% of the supply is now held by long-term 'diamond hand' investors. Yet, on the skeptical side, it is argued that until Bitcoin clears the $79,000 resistance point, it might just be a 'relief rally' within a larger bear cycle.

Support at $72,000 must hold. Then, let's hope we clear the $79,000 resistance point soon - and then it's 'Go' time.   We just don't want it to go down below $72k, but instead clear $79k... Go, go, go!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Sentiment is more bullish than anticipated when those longs below $70K not getting liquidated.

...yet  
But i am surprised by the strength of local support in the current range, while $74k-$75k as resistance was pretty obvious.

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

It's acting like 74 as an important door to be knocked on. I think this is the second time knocking.

Yep, 2nd time. Prepare to get knocked off again. This could go on a while.
EDIT: Now it's the third time, today. The last time wasn't followed by a deep drop, other than the first time. Quite bullish, imo.

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

You are speaking my mind.

[Bigjoe158]

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

Yep! Bitcoin has just completed 8 consecutive green daily sessions. This is the longest winning streak since late 2025 - clearly a shift from aggressive selling to steady accumulation. And of course the price has cleared that nasty $70,000–$72,000 range, which acted as a major 'ceiling' of sorts for the past 6 weeks. It also reclaimed the 50-day EMA, an indicator used to separate short-term bearish and bullish trends.

All analysts are thought to be bullish, with many maintaining a year-end target average of $150,000+ - citing the fact that nearly 60% of the supply is now held by long-term 'diamond hand' investors. Yet, on the skeptical side, it is argued that until Bitcoin clears the $79,000 resistance point, it might just be a 'relief rally' within a larger bear cycle.

Support at $72,000 must hold. Then, let's hope we clear the $79,000 resistance point soon - and then it's 'Go' time.   We just don't want it to go down below $72k, but instead clear $79k... Go, go, go!

I kept saying that BTC will peak up the in the 3rd quarter of the year though i never did any research on it but my instincts keep telling me it will be okay with BTC by the 3rd quarter. For BTC keep up green for 8 consecutive daily sessions my advice is keep stacking the BTC because better days are ahead of us. Keep the faith, keep believing the market, keep investing in the market. Market forces are at work and those manipulating the market will regret with their odd forecast about BTC.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Hopefully this military campaign with Iran gets wrapped up soon and the tension in middle east settles down and springboards Bitcoin to a new ATH.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will be announcing some NATO countries that will finally help the U.S. eliminate the threat from Iran and to help open the Strait of Hormuz for safe oil and LNG to transit.  

President Trump has indicated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will soon announce the specific countries participating in a coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

It appears assistance will come from approximately seven countries and it has been suggested that "numerous countries" have already indicated they are on the way.

Based on recent diplomatic activity, the following countries are being closely watched:

• France: President Trump mentioned today that he spoke with President Emmanuel Macron, who expressed a willingness to help with reopening the waterway. France previously mentioned preparing a defensive mission involving two frigates.

• Denmark and Lithuania: These nations have expressed an "open mind" or suggested that NATO countries should consider the request, though they have not yet committed specific assets.

•Estonia: Foreign officials have stated they are "always ready for discussions" regarding the situation in the Strait.

► China: While not a NATO member, China has been specifically named by the Trump administration as a country that should help, given its heavy reliance on the Strait for oil. U.S. and Chinese officials are reportedly meeting in Paris to discuss the details.

~~~~~~~~~~

Notable Pushback

Several key NATO and European allies have publicly distanced themselves from a military mission in the region:

• United Kingdom: Prime Minister Keir Starmer ruled out a NATO-led mission, stating the U.K. "will not be drawn into the wider war," though he is open to a "viable collective plan" that might involve non-combat support like minesweeping drones.

• Germany and Spain: Both countries have flatly rejected participation, with German officials stating the conflict is "not NATO's war."

• Japan and South Korea: While Japan is in close communication with Secretary Rubio, Tokyo has cited legal and constitutional constraints that make a naval deployment unlikely. South Korea is still officially "considering" the request.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

my technical analysis:

smoke enough weed till the chart lines blur, then click "buy"

worked out great so far

I have a friend that is the definition of a stoner. He never got any of that technical analysis stuff. A few years ago while many were writing all kinds of charts he was smoking and invested a small part of his stash in some shitcoin which he flipped fast for a big increase in Bitcoin. Smoke and buy was his motto, or buy and smoke. One of those.  

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

I hope not, let's see what Powell says this week.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Sentiment is more bullish than anticipated when those longs below $70K not getting liquidated.

...yet  
But i am surprised by the strength of local support in the current range, while $74k-$75k as resistance was pretty obvious.

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

It's acting like 74 as an important door to be knocked on. I think this is the second time knocking.

Yep, 2nd time. Prepare to get knocked off again. This could go on a while.
EDIT: Now it's the third time, today. The last time wasn't followed by a deep drop, other than the first time. Quite bullish, imo.

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

You are speaking my mind.

I agree that the strength of the support is surprising.  However, Saylor just made a MASSIVE purchase so we will have to wait until that money settles down to see if it was a fluke pump or if we are actually trying to change the trend.  We are right there, but obviously I think this is a bull trap to setup more shorts as it is too early for the market to already be recovering.  I'll admit that a move upward would be bullish, at least in the short term.  The next major resistance level isn't until $97K.  We are basically just watching to see how much appetite the market has for STRC right now.  Will investors continue chasing 11% yields until the bear market is behind us?

[Leahized]

@sminston_with

It's interesting to see the overlap between Bitcoin's 200WMA and its estimated Cost of Production.

First off: the price (~$74,000) is sitting within about 1% the power law 'average' production cost.

2nd: these metrics suggest we're not where you think we are in the market cycle.

- - - - - - -

You'll notice there are several of these 'plateaus' in the 200WMA - and when they transition from one plateau to the next one up, typically pushing the WMA itself ABOVE the CoP, it is during these transitions when a bull run happens.

This time - since the FTX crash/end of 2022 - the price rose 7.8x despite have NO detectable plateau-plateau transition - in fact that whole time, the 200WMA has been trending downward, the same as how it has done every time during an 'accumulation market,' NOT a bull market.

I believe this supports the ISM PMI theory; this has NOT been a bull run, its been a pseudo-bull run, similar to 2019.

Of course, this also implies that we HAVE BEEN down the bear market path for some time, and once the business cycle picks up again (may be happening in a matter of months or less), Bitcoin price could start to experience the turnaround we've all been watching for.

Current BTC Price:   $74,324
200-Week MA:         $58,751   (BTC is +26.5% above)
CoP Power Law:  $73,523   (BTC is +1.1% above)


https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2033558660363022846

Even better visualized with the CoP power law as the residuals baseline:



Visualized equally clearly with the .05 Quantile Power Law baseline:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Time will tell if this rally gets any where near 118k and is a real bull and not a baby bull.

Oh gawd..  
There is no such thing as baby bull.  Baby bulls are like fairies..

Imaginary.

Aww!  That one hurt a little.

Don't shoot the messenger.., as "they" say.

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.
I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

Yeah but?

Have you bought any back?  As a hedge?

None of us can be "that" confident about our believes in which way the BTC price may or may not go.

Support at $72,000 must hold. Then, let's hope we clear the $79,000 resistance point soon - and then it's 'Go' time.   We just don't want it to go down below $72k, but instead clear $79k... Go, go, go!

Dee actual cornz (have you heard about it?) no give no shits about your random expectations regarding what "needs to" happen to it, or not.

@sminston_with

It's interesting to see the overlap between Bitcoin's 200WMA and its estimated Cost of Production.

First off: the price (~$74,000) is sitting within about 1% the power law 'average' production cost.

2nd: these metrics suggest we're not where you think we are in the market cycle.

- - - - - - -

You'll notice there are several of these 'plateaus' in the 200WMA - and when they transition from one plateau to the next one up, typically pushing the WMA itself ABOVE the CoP, it is during these transitions when a bull run happens.

This time - since the FTX crash/end of 2022 - the price rose 7.8x despite have NO detectable plateau-plateau transition - in fact that whole time, the 200WMA has been trending downward, the same as how it has done every time during an 'accumulation market,' NOT a bull market.

Your use of the English language comes off as wee bit confusing, especially the idea of "trending down."

FYI.  So far in bitcoin's history, the 200WMA has never trended down - sure there have been times when it was less steep, but the 200-WMA never trended down.

You can punch in various numbers and look at the 200-WMA history (look here), and you likely will see that between June 2022 and October 2023, the BTC price spent a whole hell-of-a-lot of time below the 200-WMA and even got as low as 36% below the BTC price at the peak, yet even during that worst period of time, the 200-WMA continued to go up at least $10 per day and including overall yearly average that never went below 1% annual increase.   

So FYI.. "diminishing up" is not the same as "trending down."

I believe this supports the ISM PMI theory; this has NOT been a bull run, its been a pseudo-bull run, similar to 2019.

Aren't you the BIGGEST party poop in the world.

As you recall our price increase from April 2019 to June 2019 was about 3.5x from $4,200 to $13,880,  so it was only half way back to the ATH and then a regression back to the starting point, including the March 2020 fluke down to $3,800.

so yeah, that 2019 boost was preceded by around a 84% correction through 2018.

Of course, this also implies that we HAVE BEEN down the bear market path for some time, and once the business cycle picks up again (may be happening in a matter of months or less), Bitcoin price could start to experience the turnaround we've all been watching for.

Current BTC Price:   $74,324
200-Week MA:         $58,751   (BTC is +26.5% above)
CoP Power Law:  $73,523   (BTC is +1.1% above)

https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2033558660363022846
Even better visualized with the CoP power law as the residuals baseline:

Visualized equally clearly with the .05 Quantile Power Law baseline:

Your squigglies are far from convincing.  If I just spit-ball the situation, it seems equally plausible that we could be going through some variation of the 2021 double top scenario.

Nothing wrong with attempting to prepare for both down and up, as long as you don't fail/refuse to be adequately prepared for up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Your squigglies are far from convincing.  If I just spit-ball the situation, it seems equally plausible that we could be going through some variation of the 2021 double top scenario.

Nothing wrong with attempting to prepare for both down and up, as long as you don't fail/refuse to be adequately prepared for up.

That would be the most confusing (for traders) scenario, wouldn't it?
Well...sometimes markets are "trying" to ruin both bulls and bears in succession (that is if you sell /buy in an inopportune time).

[philipma1957]

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

hey do the fucking math

59k to 74k is a 25.4% increase

at worst we are in an undecided market.

I really would love to slap these mother fuckers scream bear bear bear when we are up 25.4% from the low

enough already.

JJG is getting a hint of what is happening and he the permanent bull of perma bulls. wants to argue no baby bulls and no fairy's  jeese what the fuck is wrong with you guys.

this is the birth of a new bull run and JJG says there are no baby bulls holy fucking shit.

and you going along with fear fear fear

damn we are fucking rising.

now if you want to say WWIII is coming due to Trump and his madness well I won't argue that as much.

I will say I have had 40 years of play time with my wife which is a pretty good win for me

much better than the BTC

Doge Ltc Solana and silver with a bit of gold I have.

Rant over.

watching 74K is fun I really want the 4 year cycle people to realize they fucked up by. thinking we would drop under 59k.

So I will push my agenda of mocking them in the hopes I am correct.

but as will all know honey badger does not give a fuck in the least.

and as for the mine I am soon to get a strong raise in coin earnings.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   940946  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   92.1243%  (1491 / 1618.47 expected, 127.47 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   144398401518100.9                            
Current Difficulty:   145042165424853.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 133648381961819 and 134364187025888
Next Difficulty Change:   between -7.8555% and -7.3620%
Previous Retarget:   March 5, 2026 at 12:25 PM  (+0.4458%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 4:11 PM  (in 3d 21h 1m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 6:08 PM  (in 3d 22h 58m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 2h 46m 35s and 15d 4h 43m 28s

these numbers will translate to about 8% more coins earned each day for me.

so 0.00103x1.08= 0.0011124btc  

which is a nice daily dca number.
along with the signature coins.

I will likely be over 2.0 btc before 2027.

Some thing to look forward to.

[OgNasty]

watching 74K is fun I really want the 4 year cycle people to realize they fucked up by. thinking we would drop under 59k.

So I will push my agenda of mocking them in the hopes I am correct.

Mock away my friend. We are still a very long way from me regretting selling the top and getting further with each weekly interest payment. For the first time in 6 months though, we are seeing a bullish signal. I will give you that. Will we see a new 2026 low before a new 2026 high? I still think so.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com