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adnanabbas
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January 16, 2014, 03:11:19 PM |
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waiting for gox to go back to 870 seems like an eternity  |
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Once a transaction has 6 confirmations, it is extremely unlikely that an attacker without at least 50% of the network's computation power would be able to reverse it.
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prof7bit
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January 16, 2014, 03:15:17 PM |
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P(now) plus a random variable with zero mean
Except that the mean is not zero but significantly positive. And thats why i'm just hodling (besides some automated risk rebalancing to convert the randomness into profit). |
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BitChick
Legendary
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Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
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January 16, 2014, 03:46:13 PM |
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Some of you guys on here should become professors there! |
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JorgeStolfi
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January 16, 2014, 03:46:37 PM |
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P(now) plus a random variable with zero mean
Except that the mean is not zero but significantly positive. And thats why i'm just hodling (besides some automated risk rebalancing to convert the randomness into profit). Well, it depends on when you start to compute the mean... Start at 2013-01-01 and the mean of log increments is positive; start at 2013-11-18, and it is zero; start at 2013-11-29, and it is negative. If the past is relevant, the recent past (say, the last two months) should have more weight than the remote past, no? So why is the mean since 2011 more likely to be correct than the mean since 2013-11-29? But if the mean increment is indeterminate to that degree, it becomes part of the zero-mean random term, just increasing its variance. That observation is the key to rising from Level One to Level Two.  BTW, even if one starts at 2011, the mean increment per time step is not "strongly" positive: it is still small compared to the standard deviation of the random term. |
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prof7bit
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January 16, 2014, 04:02:14 PM
Last edit: January 16, 2014, 05:20:39 PM by prof7bit |
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P(now) plus a random variable with zero mean
Except that the mean is not zero but significantly positive. And thats why i'm just hodling (besides some automated risk rebalancing to convert the randomness into profit). Well, it depends on when you start to compute the mean... Start at 2013-01-01 I'm starting at the beginning because I'm trying to find the signal below the noise and not the noise itself, and the only signal I could identify so far that seems to be persistent over the entire past history of bitcoin price is something that looks strikingly similar to something that could be modeled as exponential growth. In the spirit of Gordon E. Moore I might soon be able to postulate prof7bit's law: "Over the history of Bitcoin the number of USD needed to buy a single unit of bitcoin doubles approximately every 4 months"  |
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ChartBuddy
Legendary
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1759
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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January 16, 2014, 04:02:42 PM |
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pera
Sr. Member
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Activity: 532
Merit: 261
バカ
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January 16, 2014, 04:15:29 PM |
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Richard Branson
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January 16, 2014, 04:21:27 PM |
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This bill will pass. Russia is not democracy. Bad for all russian bitcoiners. Getting fiat in and out of russia (large amounts), is not that easy. Bitcoin could have been the solution. |
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pietje
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January 16, 2014, 04:34:28 PM |
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Why do you base your trendline on the biggest dump at the crash, when we only hit it 1 second? Lets say the dump was a little bit less or more which was very easily possible, your trendline is way off. |
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gizmoh
Legendary
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Activity: 1428
Merit: 1000
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January 16, 2014, 04:37:25 PM |
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You turned bull Pera?  This bill is likely to get adopted and gets bitcoin the 1st official country ban, negative headlines to come. Good news isn't pushing pricing much up, while bad news sends the price down immediately. Tells me we are at a saturation / turning point.. |
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niothor
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January 16, 2014, 04:39:02 PM |
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You turned bull Pera? This bill is likely to get adopted and gets bitcoin the 1st official country ban, negative headlines to come. Good news isn't pushing pricing much up, while bad news sends the price down immediately. Tells me we are at a saturation / turning point.. So this is the new FUD on todays menu? We really need some WTUD , really fast. |
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MAbtc
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January 16, 2014, 04:41:24 PM |
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Buy and hold is for suckers I'm really amazed how easily some 'pro-traders' call others 'suckers' or 'idiots' (the last is not from you) because the latters are long term investors (holders) or simply don't daytrade. This is fair. Us tarders take plenty of shit around here, too.  |
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gizmoh
Legendary
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Activity: 1428
Merit: 1000
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January 16, 2014, 04:42:18 PM |
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Unless, of course, ubber-bulls and hodlers are   |
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fluidjax
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January 16, 2014, 04:51:01 PM |
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More chart BS  This time for the Bulls Huobi clearly shows a pennant, which suggests a continuation of the uptrend once complete (in about 3 days)  |
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proudhon
Legendary
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Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
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January 16, 2014, 04:52:12 PM |
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Unless, of course, ubber-bulls and hodlers are As we've recently seen from good sources, Wall Street isn't coming to bitcoin and is moving on to interest in 3D printing and self-driving cars, as those technologies clearly hold more promise than bitcoin. Once everyone internalizes that fact, the price will enter free fall. Shotring now will command fantastic returns, especially at very high margin levels. |
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ChartBuddy
Legendary
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1759
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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January 16, 2014, 05:02:35 PM |
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Poll
