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Question: When New ATH?
Apr. 11 - 2 (5.9%)
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Apr. 15 - 4 (11.8%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25252779 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
molecular
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January 26, 2014, 07:42:30 AM
 #79621

What we call this ‘market’ really is interesting.  For reference:  I have a small mining operation, I purchased for a cold wallet in Sept at 122, and I day trade on BTC-e.

What we are trading, and holding, is the reward paid to the miners for creating and maintaining the blockchain.  (BTW, in my books, holding is a form of speculation.)  We do not buy, nor earn, anything like a share of bitcoin.  We buy and trade what the miner sold to pay his bills or to profit from.

There is a whale of a lot of comment about this mining reward becoming the dominant currency of some future world.  I cannot believe that, for many reasons.

What I can believe is that XBT will be used for quick, cheap, money transfer; that the blockchain can, and likely will, be used for permanent record keeping; and that the idea behind bitcoin will allow some bright people to create some never before thought of – highly useful – applications that will revolutionize monetary practices.

Some merchants will embrace XBT with good reason.  Others will not see a use for it.  Some governments will ignore XBT; others will see it as a threat to their monopoly and restrict it.  Bankers will not care.  Central banks will not care.  Big businesses will not care (they rely on banks for funding and the price of such is built into the product).

If there aren’t significant developments, applications that depend on the blockchain (and hence the miners), say in the next 12 months, then XBT will likely be viewed as a fad.  These significant developments need to be something that will rock the world much like the internet did.  Then the price of XBT will match the needs of the most efficient miners who will keep the blockchain intact. 

Until then, we play footsie with the price of the miner’s efforts.

/end Saturday boredom thoughts


I disagree.

Even if Bitcoin is just used as the scarce digital commodity money it is right now and no further innovation in use of blockchain occurs, I still see an increasing need/use for it.

Even if that innovation occurs in other technologies like ethereum, I still see bitcoin as the primary store of wealth in the crypto world for a long time. All the alts trade against it and it gets most of the visibility. Add to that the fact that crypto in general is superior in features to anything we have so far (gold, fiat, airmiles,...) and you have a winner: XBT.

(not saying it's a given. Shit can happen. But it's looking good from my perspective)
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January 26, 2014, 07:50:39 AM
 #79622

yeah, everyone that uses gox cant get gox bux out.
Well, is this true or not? Most messages on that issue are very negative, eg. in these threads
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=430833.msg4743147#msg4743147
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=432477.msg4742920#msg4742920

However there are occasional reports of successful withdrawals.  Which ones should be believed?

If MtGOX does not warn clients upfront about the withdrawal problems, they are effectively a trap for unwary bitcoin owners (e.g. small merchants) who are looking for a place to sell their BTC.  

It may take months for those newbies to realize what is happening.  Meanwhile MtGOX gets to keep (and play with) their bitcoins and their dollars.

Just like the Evil Banks do.
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January 26, 2014, 08:01:26 AM
 #79623

since it's quite boring here, allow me to post something totally OT (probably):

Quote from: Courtney Brown
This is an exciting time. Something important is going to happen sometime next month, in February 2014. Nothing can stop it now. There will be an announcement, and the world will change on the date of that announcement. In the beginning, only a few will understand the significance of the announcement, and what it means for all of humanity currently living on this planet. Some will laugh, and some will cry. But in time, the world will come to know that life on Earth changed significantly on that day in February 2014. A mystery that has confused our civilization for thousands of years will find an answer. And from that answer, a new direction for the future growth of our species will arise. No, there will not be Earth changes. No, the ETs will not land. No, the sky will not fall down, and the Earth will not shake. No, President Obama will not reveal...whatever. What will be announced is actually much bigger than all of that. Honest.

Yes, I know something that I am not talking about. I am making a statement of fact, not making a prediction. But the reason for the delay is that much is going on right now. If everything was ready, the announcement would happen tomorrow. But things are not quite ready yet. They will be ready in February.

We will include news of the announcement on this newsletter. But much will happen on my Facebook page, and there are already updates and energetic discussions going on currently on that Facebook page. I want to encourage all who are interested to visit this page and watch and/or participate. You can friend or follow the page as well so that you keep informed. Here is the link:
[https://www.facebook.com/courtney.brown.7568596](https://www.facebook.com/courtney.brown.7568596)

Again, this is an exciting time. The announcement will not be about Earth changes or anything else that would disrupt normal lives. It will be about knew knowledge that will change the way all of humanity thinks of its past, and its present. It will be a moment of profound learning, nothing more, but nothing less. It will mark one of the most important moments in the history of our civilization. Not everyone will agree, but eventually, that is how most people will come to see it.

The greatest changes occur on our planet not because physical things happen, but because new knowledge enters into our consciousness. Some new knowledge is so big, it fills the horizon and changes nearly everything.

Courtney Brown, Ph.D., Director

The Farsight Institute

...and people say bitcoiners are nutjobs...

EDIT: for some context: the farsight institute is trying to use some very strange scientific methods and military-trained people that can somehow see one of several possible futures. Well, it's been a while since I read it. About the most strange stuff I've ever read.
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January 26, 2014, 08:02:45 AM
 #79624


Explanation
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January 26, 2014, 08:34:08 AM
 #79625

What we call this ‘market’ really is interesting.  For reference:  I have a small mining operation, I purchased for a cold wallet in Sept at 122, and I day trade on BTC-e.

What we are trading, and holding, is the reward paid to the miners for creating and maintaining the blockchain.  (BTW, in my books, holding is a form of speculation.)  We do not buy, nor earn, anything like a share of bitcoin.  We buy and trade what the miner sold to pay his bills or to profit from.

There is a whale of a lot of comment about this mining reward becoming the dominant currency of some future world.  I cannot believe that, for many reasons.

What I can believe is that XBT will be used for quick, cheap, money transfer; that the blockchain can, and likely will, be used for permanent record keeping; and that the idea behind bitcoin will allow some bright people to create some never before thought of – highly useful – applications that will revolutionize monetary practices.

Some merchants will embrace XBT with good reason.  Others will not see a use for it.  Some governments will ignore XBT; others will see it as a threat to their monopoly and restrict it.  Bankers will not care.  Central banks will not care.  Big businesses will not care (they rely on banks for funding and the price of such is built into the product).

If there aren’t significant developments, applications that depend on the blockchain (and hence the miners), say in the next 12 months, then XBT will likely be viewed as a fad.  These significant developments need to be something that will rock the world much like the internet did.  Then the price of XBT will match the needs of the most efficient miners who will keep the blockchain intact. 

Until then, we play footsie with the price of the miner’s efforts.

/end Saturday boredom thoughts



I'm drinking red wine and watching Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen).  Jasmine was rich and lost it all to Uncle Sam.  She could have kept 5,000 BTC in a brain wallet and avoided all the drama.

Just another reason that bitcoin will succeed. 
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January 26, 2014, 08:43:04 AM
 #79626

It can't be reserve currency, not in the near future, not when 47 people, holding 30% of all bitcoins, mostly very young people can dictate its price... When, and if, they start to cash out we might start think about it...

There is a whale of a lot of comment about this mining reward becoming the dominant currency of some future world.  I cannot believe that, for many reasons.

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that it will become a major currency, a reserve currency.  It has no counterparty risk.  Debt-based money has always and will always fail, either gradually or suddenly.  Only hard money is without counterparty risk.  The technical superiority of BTC to gold is obvious, and you can't overcome that gap without introducing counterparty risk.  USD,EUR,RMB,JPY are all teetering on the brink of the largest synchronized sovereign crisis in the history of the world.  They have sown the wind, and will reap the whirlwind.  It's mathematically inevitable at this point.  We just don't know how long the dead men can keep walking.

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January 26, 2014, 08:48:33 AM
 #79627

It can't be reserve currency, not in the near future, not when 47 people, holding 30% of all bitcoins, mostly very young people can dictate its price... When, and if, they start to cash out we might start think about it...

I agree that the bitcoin wealth distribution likely follows a Pareto distribution (many coins are held by only a few people), but do you realize that the "47" number was pulled out of...I mean "estimated" by Risto Pietila right here at BitcoinTalk.org?  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=432430.msg4740844#msg4740844
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January 26, 2014, 08:51:43 AM
 #79628

Kill the naysayers!!


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January 26, 2014, 08:57:59 AM
 #79629

Kill the naysayers!!


I'm sorry Fonzie, was this in reference to me or my comments? 

Don't worry about Fonzie! He's off on one against anyone who doesn't believe a crash is coming!
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January 26, 2014, 08:58:28 AM
 #79630

Kill the naysayers!!


I'm sorry Fonzie, was this in reference to me or my comments? 

No not at all , just a reply to the overall sentiment in here in the last weeks.
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January 26, 2014, 09:00:24 AM
 #79631

Kill the naysayers!!


I'm sorry Fonzie, was this in reference to me or my comments?  

Don't worry about Fonzie! He's off on one against anyone who doesn't believe a crash is coming!

I have never actually offended one in here personally, but have seen many bears get attacked and insulted with lots of hate.
But don´t worry i´m actually in a very good mood and just havin fun.  Cheesy
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January 26, 2014, 09:01:48 AM
 #79632

Kill the naysayers!!


I'm sorry Fonzie, was this in reference to me or my comments?  

Don't worry about Fonzie! He's off on one against anyone who doesn't believe a crash is coming!

I have never actually one personally, but have seen many bears get attacked with lots of hate.
But don´t worry i´m actually in a very good mood and just havin fun.

No prob.  

So is that Jamie Dimon burning Satoshi?  Or the most ardent bulls burning Mah87?
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January 26, 2014, 09:02:46 AM
 #79633


Explanation
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January 26, 2014, 09:03:15 AM
 #79634

Look at Gox price ! It is crazy !
167 USD spread to BitStamp. It will end in some erruption...
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January 26, 2014, 09:07:32 AM
 #79635

Looks like hyubi decided to lead the dump
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January 26, 2014, 09:29:55 AM
 #79636

news just in; Paypal changes fee policy. introducing a cap on fees - ie maximum tranaction fee for echeques.

 ""Changes to Fees for Receiving eChecks for Sellers in China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam

For Sellers in the following countries: China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, there is a maximum fee per payment for receiving eCheck-funded payments as follows. The cap depends on the currency of the payment.

China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam
   

Currency :
   

Fee :

Argentine Peso:
   

150.00 ARS

Australian Dollar:
   

50.00 AUD

Brazilian Real:
   

75.00 BRL

Canadian Dollar:
   

45.00 CAD"
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January 26, 2014, 09:36:40 AM
 #79637

Look at Gox price ! It is crazy !
167 USD spread to BitStamp. It will end in some erruption...

We will have 200$ very soon. Awesome  Cheesy
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January 26, 2014, 09:51:35 AM
 #79638

Lets agree that for btc to become "reserve currency" it doesn't really matter if there are 30, 47 or 200 people holding those chunk of coins... still the price can be manipulated...

It can't be reserve currency, not in the near future, not when 47 people, holding 30% of all bitcoins, mostly very young people can dictate its price... When, and if, they start to cash out we might start think about it...

I agree that the bitcoin wealth distribution likely follows a Pareto distribution (many coins are held by only a few people), but do you realize that the "47" number was pulled out of...I mean "estimated" by Risto Pietila right here at BitcoinTalk.org?  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=432430.msg4740844#msg4740844
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January 26, 2014, 09:54:00 AM
 #79639

Wondering about Willy - does any one have thoughts on a couple of points:

1.  Frequency of buys / amount of buys - are these comparable to last time Willy was 'on'?

2. What was the length of run of the bot?

3. What was the estimated total buy?   I think it was in excess of 2000 BTC / day.

Just trying to have some idea of how long it (may) go on for - assuming it is buying is a similar way as the last run.

Of course if it is just Mark propping up Gox's price, knowing will do me no good at all, but indulge me?
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January 26, 2014, 09:54:25 AM
 #79640

Lets agree that for btc to become "reserve currency" it doesn't really matter if there are 30, 47 or 200 people holding those chunk of coins... still the price can be manipulated...

And so can fiat and so can gold and so can any form of money that humanity ever cooks up.  

For me, bitcoin seems most just.  
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