Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

MtGox v2

http://techcrunch.com/2014/02/12/jed-mccaleb/


Alpha testers wanted
http://alphatesters.secretbitcoinproject.com/

[PoolMinor]

I have a patented trading algorithm that works wonders with BTC and I'll share it with you:

If 2 Posts on 1 Page (Wall Observer) contain "Bitcoin" + "The End" Then Buy
If 5 Posts on 1 Page (Wall Observer) contain "Bitcoin" + "Moon" Then Sell
Else Hold

Thank me later!

Thanks, it works!!

[Richy_T]

consumers will be made to pay at the pump (charging station). Guaranteed.

Of course, except now one's pump can be at home. After materials it is free-ish. I suppose it's only fair to include the cost to replace batteries (if used), panels, etc. in one's own solar charger at whatever interval required. This is the "ish" part. Maybe $2000 every 20 years...? $100 a year?

By comparison it is a rare individual who has his own oil rig and gas refinery in his backyard producing free-ish energy for himself.

Not quite. There are people who make their own biodiesel and the government has already come after them. You (possibly we) will end up paying per mile. They're already looking into the options. You're just enjoying a grace period right now.

Not that I'm against electric. I wouldn't mind having one myself but the Leaf couldn't do the round trip (and is fugly besides)

[kromer]

santa is coming with $260 coins?? NICE!  

Not unless there is some more devastating news. The weak hands have gone.

[pjviitas]

consumers will be made to pay at the pump (charging station). Guaranteed.

Of course, except now one's pump can be at home. After materials it is free-ish. I suppose it's only fair to include the cost to replace batteries (if used), panels, etc. in one's own solar charger at whatever interval required. This is the "ish" part. Maybe $2000 every 20 years...? $100 a year?

By comparison it is a rare individual who has his own oil rig and gas refinery in his backyard producing free-ish energy for himself.

I think that there may be something to this.

In order to get people interested in something it doesn't need to be free...it just needs to have an element of free.

Bitcoin mining is a classic case study of this type of human behavior

[cee-euros]

500 btc-e wall, eh??

[Richard Branson]

santa is coming with $260 coins?? NICE!  

Not unless there is some more devastating news. The weak hands have gone.

Do you really believe that?
There are a lot of stupid above 1000$ buyers that are still hodling. They will panic sell soon (within 4 weeks).

[Davyd05]

santa is coming with $260 coins?? NICE!  

Not unless there is some more devastating news. The weak hands have gone.

Do you really believe that?
There are a lot of stupid above 1000$ buyers that are still hodling. They will panic sell soon (within 4 weeks).

doubt it

[adamstgBit]

CasinoBitco.in (CBTC)  on haveloack just took one hell of a hit
time is now!
buy buy buy
 

[podyx]

anyone know if bitstamp withdrawals are working yet??

[JorgeStolfi]

Those "Chinese Slumber" trends that I believe I see in the Huobi hourly price charts are rather unexpected, since market prices usually behave as if they had no memory of the past, only of the present (that is the principle of the "geometric Brownian" model and its fancier variants.)  So, after wandering randomly for 24 hours, the market should not be influenced for where it was 24 hours earlier.

But I believe that those trends are real, and are a consequence of trader habits and of the relatively closed nature of the Chinese market.   

During the day, traders will move their holdings back and forth from Yuans to Bitcoins, often many times per day, and will move Yuans between the exchange and their own bank accounts.  But presumably every trader has a preferred "base position", a ratio of Yuan to bitcoin that he would rather leave in his account while he is not watching, and (especially) the total amount of money he is willing to leave in the exchanget.

The "base position" of different traders may be very different, but those differences and details don't matter. The important point is that before going to bed, each investor presumably tries to return to his "base position" if he can do so without much loss.  I believe that the net effect of these tendencies, averaging out all traders, is that the total amount of CNY (tCNY) in the traders' accounts returns to about the same value every night as everyone goes to bed.

On the other hand, the total amount of bitcoins tBTC in the exchange should vary slowly, too. The typical Chinese trader should have little motivation and/or means to trade at exchanges outside China, and the amount moved by arbitrage traders (even between Huobi and OKCoin) should be a small fraction of tBTC.

The next step in the theory, that is assumed proved by a suitable amount of hand-waving, is that there is a strong connection between the ratio tCNY/tBTC and the market price of 1 BTC in CNY at that exchange.

With those hypotheses, it follows that the current BTC/CNY prices, observed every 24 hours at the "slumber times", should vary much less than the hour-to-our prices, or prices taken every 24 hours during daytime.

In particular, during the New Year holidays, Huobi was effectively a closed market,  with no inflow or outflow of Yuan.  Thus tCNY was constant, and the price (especially at the slumber times) remained practically constant.

Once the banks opened on Feb/07, there was both temporary flow of money into and out of the exchange during the day, leading to highly variable prices;  but also a smaller and relatively steady net outflow of money, as speculators became disappointed with their returns, cashed out, and left the market.  The prices at the slumber times decayed because of this net outflow, which reduced the tCNY total.  Between Feb 07 and Feb/10 he price (and presumably the tCNY) seemed to decay as a shited exponential, tending towards some limit in the 4000 CNY range, implying that the net outflow of CNY was decreasing exponentially towarsd zero.

However, that trend was interrupted by the Karpeles Catastrophe on Feb/10.  I epect that the net outflow of CNY from Huobi will be restarted, but again decrease exponentially with time;  so perhaps the slumber points will again follow a shifted exponential trend.

[Davyd05]

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000245383 OMG HODLERS UNITE

[adamstgBit]

Poor Mt.Gox, close to its low again.

i hadn't looked at the gox chart in a while, my god does it ever look ugly

[Richard Branson]

Poor Mt.Gox, close to its low again.

i hadn't looked at the gox chart in a while, my god does it ever look ugly

That's a glimpse of the future @ stamp
Sub 500$ coins are in a few days overpriced.
Poor souls that bought too high.

[windjc]

Some newses...

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/12/technology/bitcoin-regulation/

 

Sooner the better.

[solex]

Some newses...

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/12/technology/bitcoin-regulation/

 

Sooner the better.

Grrr. They still quote gox on CNN

[UnDerDoG81]

Wow gox almost under 500 

[adamstgBit]

Wow gox almost under 500  

lol
thats 23% lower than stamps.

market is now saying there's a 23% chance gox will never send out another bitcoin.

[windjc]

It seems like people are now able to withdraw BTC from both Bitstamp and Btc-e, multiple posters now confirming that they have done so.

Is this officially confirmed now?

[el_rlee]

It seems like people are now able to withdraw BTC from both Bitstamp and Btc-e, multiple posters now confirming that they have done so.

Is this officially confirmed now?

Interesting question.

An official statement on the site would be nice and reassuring.