Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[macsga]

Lamby you dirty rat, STILL POSTING? Didn't you buy all of them cheap coins by now?

[JayJuanGee]

Some of the selling coming with spikes in bitcoin days destroyed

What's the source of that bitcoin days destroyed chart? 

[rebuilder]

Serious question:
What's the "fair price" of one bitcoin? and how do you arrive to that conclusion?

Depends on how many people use it and the average dollar value of their purchases.

that was the only approximately legit reply so far

If there was no speculation (including long-term hoarding), only use for e-payments, customers (buyers of stuff or services) would buy BTC just for payments, and give them to merchants (suppliers) or payment processors, who would then sell those BTC to other customers. 

Let V be the total volume of such payments expressed in USD/day.  Let T be the average time in days between the purchase of some BTC by one customer and its re-purchase by another customer, after going through a merchant or processor.   Let N be the total number of coins available, and P the market price of one BTC.  Then, the total volume of payments, in BTC/day, is  N / T.  Therfore, we musthave in we must have P *N / T = V, or P = V * T / N.

Today, N = 13.5 M BTC.  BitPay currently processes ~1 million USD per day of payments; let's guess that V is ten times that, 10 M USD/day.  Let's also guess T = 30 days.  (Note, we are assuming that no one is hoarding, so that everybody passes the coins on as soon as pratical.)  Then we get P = 10 * 30 / 13.6 = 22 USD.

You'd still have the issue of there being some hurdles to overcome before buying BTC to spend it on anything. On one hand, this is a disincentive to use BTC for transactions, on the other it is an incentive to 'hoard', as you put it, if you do prefer to use BTC for some purposes.

That aside, I think we can agree any tradeable asset will see some speculation. Looking at your formula, it occurs to me you might add two variables to account for this. One is the growth rate of the BTC price and another is the average speculator's patience - how long they're willing to wait for profits to reach their targets.  Of course both are unknown and actually somewhat interlinked, so it's no wonder price discovery is a messy business.

[ShroomsKit]

Its accumulation time. Fresh fiat hits the exchanges tomorrow.

Are we about to go up?

[NotLambchop]

Lamby you dirty rat, STILL POSTING? Didn't you buy all of them cheap coins by now?

Cheap=single digits.  Reasonable=low double.  Now=your pain has just begun.

[findftp]

It's time for a pump to 287  284.666.
Please fill my asks.
After that, it's down again

[macsga]

Lamby you dirty rat, STILL POSTING? Didn't you buy all of them cheap coins by now?

Cheap=single digits.  Reasonable=low double.  Now=your pain has just begun.

[usual crappy pic]

You're hilarious. Unignored again  

[findftp]

Some of the selling coming with spikes in bitcoin days destroyed

What's the source of that bitcoin days destroyed chart?  

blockchain.info

And you know you can resize pictures with "[img width=100]" right?

[flounderella]

Some of the selling coming with spikes in bitcoin days destroyed

What's the source of that bitcoin days destroyed chart?  

Could also be that a block was found and cashed out immediately... its hard to know. Overall not really seeing that much of a volume

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?timespan=60days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

[itod]

What's the source of that bitcoin days destroyed chart? 

It's manipulated, scaled chart. Here's the real 1 year days destroyed chart, nothing unusual is happening:

[heartastack]

If we see double digit Bitcoin in 2015 then I am quite sure that an Altcoin could have the throne up for grabs.
I though mass adoption and infrastructure would solidify btc's place. But I'm less certain now. Enough investment in an Altcoin wouldn't be unthinkable. Plus it seems like just clown-money in Bitcoin atm anyway - ie just buyers looking to trade and not use for anything productive. Silk Road was the best thing that happened to BTC. Those days everyone knew someone that was actually using Bitcoin to buy drugs with (where I live anyway). After the shutdown all those guys sold and most can't be bothered using the other dark markets after the shut down and buy their shit back on the streets.

[dakota neat]

If we see double digit Bitcoin in 2015 then I am quite sure that an Altcoin could have the throne up for grabs.
I though mass adoption and infrastructure would solidify btc's place. But I'm less certain now. Enough investment in an Altcoin wouldn't be unthinkable. Plus it seems like just clown-money in Bitcoin atm anyway - ie just buyers looking to trade and not use for anything productive. Silk Road was the best thing that happened to BTC. Those days everyone knew someone that was actually using Bitcoin to buy drugs with (where I live anyway). After the shutdown all those guys sold and most can't be bothered using the other dark markets after the shut down and buy their shit back on the streets.

Black Markets are flourish as ever. Your information is wrong.

[itod]

If we see double digit Bitcoin in 2015 then I am quite sure that an Altcoin could have the throne up for grabs.
I though mass adoption and infrastructure would solidify btc's place. But I'm less certain now. Enough investment in an Altcoin wouldn't be unthinkable. Plus it seems like just clown-money in Bitcoin atm anyway - ie just buyers looking to trade and not use for anything productive. Silk Road was the best thing that happened to BTC. Those days everyone knew someone that was actually using Bitcoin to buy drugs with (where I live anyway). After the shutdown all those guys sold and most can't be bothered using the other dark markets after the shut down and buy their shit back on the streets.

On the contrary, Silk Road was the worst thing that happened to bitcoin, and we are still suffering from the reputation Silk Road brought to bitcoin as being the bridge to illegal payments. Bitcoin is just fine with the price in the levels it is now if it would be 100% legal and acceptable by respectable businesses. Sooner or later (year, or two) the price will slowly rise as the legal use cases develop one by one. There's nothing worse than being semi-legal high value currency for the criminals.

[Blazin604]

You all need to roll a fat blunt. Sit back spark it up and hold your BTC n make money like a real boss

[ShroomsKit]

2015 will be the year where all the companies like Dell and MS will start dropping Bitcoin again because every day less people use it. At the end of 2015 Bitcoin will be pretty much dead and something better will take its place.

Everyone is blinded by all the news every month about company x getting a 20 million investment.
This does nothing for Bitcoin itself. It's just for marketing some product or service and hiring staff etc.
The Bitcoin devs do absolutely nothing that is needed. Just a small transaction fee change here and a line of code here. But for the average user Bitcoin is at the same unusable level as 6 years ago. Nothing is done to make it more appealing for mainstream adoption or every day use.
This in combination with the traders who every day fuck up the price and fuck over every new buyer with their dumps and you are left with a worthless product unless you need to buy drugs on a dark market.

Now that the hype is over the system will slowly bleed to death.

[LOBSTER]

What's the source of that bitcoin days destroyed chart? 

It's manipulated, scaled chart. Here's the real 1 year days destroyed chart, nothing unusual is happening:

What does mean? What are these destroyed days?

[NotLambchop]

...
Black Markets are flourish as ever. Your information is wrong.

Right.  But not those silly Silkroad wannabes.  

[Coinshot]

If we see double digit Bitcoin in 2015 then I am quite sure that an Altcoin could have the throne up for grabs.
I though mass adoption and infrastructure would solidify btc's place. But I'm less certain now. Enough investment in an Altcoin wouldn't be unthinkable. Plus it seems like just clown-money in Bitcoin atm anyway - ie just buyers looking to trade and not use for anything productive. Silk Road was the best thing that happened to BTC. Those days everyone knew someone that was actually using Bitcoin to buy drugs with (where I live anyway). After the shutdown all those guys sold and most can't be bothered using the other dark markets after the shut down and buy their shit back on the streets.

On the contrary, Silk Road was the worst thing that happened to bitcoin, and we are still suffering from the reputation Silk Road brought to bitcoin as being the bridge to illegal payments. Bitcoin is just fine with the price in the levels it is now if it would be 100% legal and acceptable by respectable businesses. Sooner or later (year, or two) the price will slowly rise as the legal use cases develop one by one. There's nothing worse than being semi-legal high value currency for the criminals.

Silk Road was the reason BTC gained some name in the first place. Once it became big it looks to be a drawback, but you forget it would not have been big in the first place without Silk Road.

[heartastack]

If we see double digit Bitcoin in 2015 then I am quite sure that an Altcoin could have the throne up for grabs.
I though mass adoption and infrastructure would solidify btc's place. But I'm less certain now. Enough investment in an Altcoin wouldn't be unthinkable. Plus it seems like just clown-money in Bitcoin atm anyway - ie just buyers looking to trade and not use for anything productive. Silk Road was the best thing that happened to BTC. Those days everyone knew someone that was actually using Bitcoin to buy drugs with (where I live anyway). After the shutdown all those guys sold and most can't be bothered using the other dark markets after the shut down and buy their shit back on the streets.

Black Markets are flourish as ever. Your information is wrong.

Conceited kunts like you are half the reason people can't be fucked with this tech.


Let me rephrase. Silk Road was the only time I've seen so far that average people who would otherwise not care about BTC were forced to use it (adopt it) because they wanted their online drugs. Henceforth when they had to work a little bit harder or were too scared after the shut down they left the scene.

Not saying it was the right direction for BTC but it demonstrated for me how it needs to be adopted to succeed. And it will not be successful based on the sound-money arguments without a systemic financial collapse of the currency system (still possible).
Until then pay-wave credit cards have BTC beat.

[LOBSTER]

Explanation

New sideway movement?