Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money

It is not compatible. I don't give a shit about that article, or the concept of velocity of money. I have written about that numerous times. Although it can be computed, giving a number, the parameter says exactly nothing of the value of money.

I don't get. At least at its core, this isn't some economical conjecture, this is just what you can or cannot do given a set of constraints on your medium of exchange.

If we agree on a medium that consists of a total of 10 tokens, we know that we'll buy and sell goods worth $100 each day, each transfer causes the tokens used in that transfer to be out of circulation for one day, then there is no way around an associated valuation per token of at least $10, or one of the other constraints has to give in (more tokens, less value transferred, less time before token is back in circulation).

At least to my understanding, velocity of money is essentially a formalization of the intuition behind the trivial example I just gave.

But feel free to correct my lack of understanding on this matter. It's possible that I'm missing something very fundamental here.

The velocity of money is meant to be a parameter of interaction with the so called "Laffer Curve", which in essence is a way to calculate the taxation within a country. I must agree with Erdogan here that (at least for now) velocity of money is incompatible with bitcoin.

FIY: http://www.joshuakennon.com/the-laffer-curve-for-beginners/

I see your point about the perhaps more economically interesting use of the expression, but what I have in mind is

Alternatively and less frequently, it can refer to the transactions velocity of money, which is the frequency with which the average unit of currency is used in any kind of transaction in which it changes possession—not only the purchase of newly produced goods, but also the purchase of financial assets and other items.

I'd think it's pretty uncontroversial that in that sense, total value of transactions + total units + frequency with which units change possession determines the value of the fourth variable: (associated) value per unit.

[1715351887]

1715351887

[1715351887]

1715351887

[AmazonStuff]

Bullish Sunday?

[octaft]

The tape is being painted and it is being walked down ... the idiot TA traders, chart followers and weak hands fall for it every time. At some point though the real bitcoin supply dries up and it doesn't matter what the charts are saying, they are all gone ... short that shit and you're dead.

Funny how no permabulls showed any concern about the "tape being painted" when the price was going up.

[samsonn25]

Supply and demand wants to re=test $205 again

[fonsie]

Assume all daily bitcoin volume are usefull transactions, this will give us an upper bound [to bitcoin's value as currency].

A good fraction of the transaction volume in the blockchain is definitely not payment for goods and services.  Much of it is coins moving between addresses that belong to the same person, such as hotwallet/coldwallet flow.  Add to that tumbling, deposit and withdrawal to exchanges, etc. Here is a summary of partial analyses that identify various non-commercial components of the traffic.

Bitpay processes about 1000-2000 BTC/day, but almost all of that seems to be miners paying bills and/or equipment. Let's say that the real use for e-comemrce through BitPay it is 500 BTC/day.  Multiply by 20 (wild guess) to estimate the world total by all processors and by direct bitcoin payments.  We get 10 kBTC/day of e-commerce.  That is still only 5% of the ~200 kBTC/day blockchain transaction volume (even after excluding apparent change-backs from the latter).

At current prices, that would be about 2 million USD/day.  If there were no speculation, each of the 13 million BTC in existence would be unavailable only between being bought by a customer and being sold by the merchant to another customer.  If that time is at  most 30 days, then the 13 million coins would be storing at most 60 million USD.  That gives about 5 USD/BTC.  If half the coins were locked up by long-term speculators, the price would still be ~10 USD/BTC.

So your entire valuation is based on "Multiply by 20 (wild guess)", yep highly accurate.
Please provide source links for the numbers you come up with next time.

[fonsie]

The tape is being painted and it is being walked down ... the idiot TA traders, chart followers and weak hands fall for it every time. At some point though the real bitcoin supply dries up and it doesn't matter what the charts are saying, they are all gone ... short that shit and you're dead.

Funny how no permabulls showed any concern about the "tape being painted" when the price was going up.

Because there is an infinite supply of dollars.

[Dump3er]

[davidorentol]

    drk/btc  so relax

[erre]

To the MOOOOOOON!!!!

[podyx]

  Where do you get these pictures from?

[samsonn25]

LMFAO

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Morecoin Freeman]

Hahahaha amazing picture.

This dump seems weak though. I would not sell this close to 200 because everyone is waiting to buy there.
Someone has to sell at the bottom. You don't want to be that guy.

[Dump3er]

  Where do you get these pictures from?

https://www.google.de/search?q=astronaut+suicide&client=safari&hl=de&biw=414&bih=628&tbm=isch&source=lnms&sa=X&ei=TvrNVNCKOobV7AbO94HQDw&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAQ&dpr=3

[Ezmoneyezlife]

Hahahaha amazing picture.

This dump seems weak though. I would not sell this close to 200 because everyone is waiting to buy there.
Someone has to sell at the bottom. You don't want to be that guy.

Lol dude, once 200$ is breached large margin calls will follow due to tons of stops around that lvl.

[coins101]

  drk/btc  so relax

One Whale

One Wall

[Morecoin Freeman]

Hahahaha amazing picture.

This dump seems weak though. I would not sell this close to 200 because everyone is waiting to buy there.
Someone has to sell at the bottom. You don't want to be that guy.

Lol dude, once 200$ is breached large margin calls will follow due to tons of stops around that lvl.

And how do you plan on breaching 200? Try 210 first. Good luck with that.

[mmitech]

Something for all shorts of limited issuance goods to ponder ...

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/01/29/the-same-thing-that-ruined-the-housing-market-is-now-ruining-the-super-bowl.html

In the 2015 Super Bowl ticket market, short selling has again played a major role, but this time around, anyone that shorted the market is now looking at losses of as much as $8,000 for each ticket.

And Longs are also dangers, in this case the longs are more dangerous than shorts, by looking at the charts bellow you can see that there are almost $15 M in longs, assuming these longs would be closed at today's price, this would create a selling pressure of 69000 BTC, this would bring the price to......zero, I don't know what bulls are thinking about when going long.


in the other hand shorts are around 20.5K BTC which seems 3 times less than the longs but still dangerous.... with the price still going down there is a big possibility of longs squeezing then the other possibility .


Longs




Shorts

[podyx]

img]http://www.ufunk.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/astronaut-suicides-neil-dacosta-08.jpg[/img]

  Where do you get these pictures from?

img]http://blogs.houstonpress.com/news/Astronaut_Suicides_garage.jpg[/img]

https://www.google.de/search?q=astronaut+suicide&client=safari&hl=de&biw=414&bih=628&tbm=isch&source=lnms&sa=X&ei=TvrNVNCKOobV7AbO94HQDw&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAQ&dpr=3

ah thanks

[Narken]

Wonder how many stolen coins(stamp etc) have been dumped yet, still think we will see lower levels in near future.

I doubt much fiat is going into the market atm, to risky with the downtreding

Also the big wall on bitfinex was gone in no time yesterday, so much for solid walls