-By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's. (c)Krugman.
Since I haven't been called a retard enough recently, let me suggest this experiment:
Get your tablet or smartphone, or some old-fashioned pencil and paper
Take a 1 hour walk around your neighborhood
Make two lists, with everything material that you see that is there, is not there, or is different than would have been otherwise, because of (a) the internet, (b) the fax machine.
(By "material" I mean objects -- not merely the text or pictures on store signs, windows, billlboards, computer screens, etc.. For example, you may notice that, because of the internet, the newspaper kiosk or vending machines at the street corner have disappeared: that counts. You will see URLs or QR codes on signs, instead of telephone numbers: that does not count. You may see the building of some internet venture that employs dozens of people and is making piles of money: that does not count, because, without the internet, there would probably have been a building of some other company there, employing dozens of people and making piles of money with some other business, computer-related or not.)
If you are too lazy to take the walk, do the same inside your home or place of work. (But actually get up and walk, do not just sit there and make a mental walk, you bum!)
If you are too lazy even for that, think of all the people you know, and note which ones have had their lives substantially changed because of the internet. (If the guy would be sitting on a desk 9 to 5 anyway, pushing numbers and writing reports,it does not matter whether he uses the internet or not.)
If you are too lazy even for that, at least note the following: what you see on your computer screen, on TV, on newspapers and magazines, is not the world, it is just
images of the world. Just because the images have changed, it does not mean that the world has.
-Bitcoin is evil. (c)Krugman.
After you have done your homework above, there will be a quiz on this subject too.
To claim that the (continuing) impact of the internet, which is now intertwined with society and with business, education, media, news, shopping..... is minor, or even as "insignificant" as the fax machine is nothing short of daft. Krugman was plainly wrong, plainly, plus, the internet as we know it was just the start, internet of things next, couple that with big data analytics, automation and robotics, decentralised and blockchain technologies, etc and we are literally only just at the start of what the internet can do, make no mistake the world is on the cusp of more huge changes. The internet is playing its role. Krugman was suggesting that by 2005 internet would have reached its peak of usefulness.. well he was wrong, and it is now 2015, and the internet is just getting its boots on, there was no final whistle blown in 2005, Krugman was wrong, and the internet is still here, and what is more it is about to grow at an exponential rate (as the remaining population are brought online and as the internet of things becomes a reality)
Krugman is a numpty.
Besides the impact of the fax machine was nothing to be sniffed at.
Sometimes people get it wrong-
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943
"Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977
"Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet's continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
"Two years from now, spam will be solved." - Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004
It is not always obvious what will and what will not happen.... though, personally and without doubt, the second I heard of the internet in the 90's.. I knew that it was a hugely significant event for humans, for society... and it is.
It may not all have happened quite as fast as some predicted, but the effects of the internet, on every aspect of society are going to grow more and more profound, and they are going to accelerate. It was the case 20 - 30 years ago, that when futurists made tech predictions, the good ones at least were right, but optimistic on the timescales. Nowadays it seems to be the other way around, there are leaps being made in technology, that a few years ago, we were told, would take 10-15 years to become reality, and in fact they are starting to occur already.
Fax machines were great.
The internet is far superior and more useful.
It is safe to say that "the future IS already here... it is just not evenly distributed" is becoming closer to being true on a daily basis.
Does anyone really think that the internet is not going to continue to be hugely significant going into the future?
No.
Poll
