Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

I cautiously believe long-term in the future of Bitcoin but I recognize the ups and down of the price of bitcoins. I also acknowledge the possibility of some kind of failure of Bitcoin, as improbable as that may be.

At the height of the bubble you were talking about "when bitcoin hits 100k" like it was a foregone conclusion. Now you want to tell me you're cautious and "recognize the ups and downs."

I don't see why you feel there's an inconsistency here.

I still feel that if (probably) and when the global adoption curve of Bitcoin goes vertical, $100k per bitcoin is perfectly feasible. That doesn't change the monthly or yearly ups and downs.

[1714486016]

1714486016

[JorgeStolfi]

Back in the early days, some of the smartest people in the world have been hanging around here. They were posting tech stuff, chatting about the fiat economy and politics, even trying to predict if a specific pattern was responsible for the USD/BTC price. But then; MtGox arrived. Then the trolls followed. And my ignore list must now contain more than 50 persons.

And yet this still seems to be the best thread in this whole forum.

Recall that, many months ago, about half of the postings on bitcointalk.org were about altcoins.  I am too lazy now to redo that statistic, but, by eyeball, the altcoins still seem to take a large fraction.

[octaft]

I cautiously believe long-term in the future of Bitcoin but I recognize the ups and down of the price of bitcoins. I also acknowledge the possibility of some kind of failure of Bitcoin, as improbable as that may be.

At the height of the bubble you were talking about "when bitcoin hits 100k" like it was a foregone conclusion. Now you want to tell me you're cautious and "recognize the ups and downs."

I don't see why you feel there's an inconsistency here.

I still feel that if (probably) and when the global adoption curve of Bitcoin goes vertical, $100k per bitcoin is perfectly feasible. That doesn't change the monthly or yearly ups and downs.

Two clear inconsistencies:

For one, the clauses you include now (the acknowledgement of potential failure, the ups and downs) were never brought up during the bull market. This might be as bearish as you get (time will tell if we ever fall below your comfort zone for bitcoin price), but it does showcase a curbing of your enthusiasm.

For another, there was no "if" in your posts at all during the bull market, as there (often) are now. All predictions of 100k from you were strictly "when."

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

https://twitter.com/finansakrobat/status/565137563149533185

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[damiano]

Back in the early days, some of the smartest people in the world have been hanging around here. They were posting tech stuff, chatting about the fiat economy and politics, even trying to predict if a specific pattern was responsible for the USD/BTC price. But then; MtGox arrived. Then the trolls followed. And my ignore list must now contain more than 50 persons.

And yet this still seems to be the best thread in this whole forum.

Recall that, many months ago, about half of the postings on bitcointalk.org were about altcoins.  I am too lazy now to redo that statistic, but, by eyeball, the altcoins still seem to take a large fraction.

There arn't many altcoins worth mentioning anymore let alone to follow.

btc
ltc

thats it for me

[readysalted89]

Back in the early days, some of the smartest people in the world have been hanging around here. They were posting tech stuff, chatting about the fiat economy and politics, even trying to predict if a specific pattern was responsible for the USD/BTC price. But then; MtGox arrived. Then the trolls followed. And my ignore list must now contain more than 50 persons.

And yet this still seems to be the best thread in this whole forum.

Recall that, many months ago, about half of the postings on bitcointalk.org were about altcoins.  I am too lazy now to redo that statistic, but, by eyeball, the altcoins still seem to take a large fraction.

Many months ago most of the alt coin posts were mostly addresses for giveaways, until giveaways were banned. After that the alt coin announcements section seemed the most popular, with countless new alt coins being announced each week. Nowadays new coin launches have dried up leaving this as one of the most popular threads,

[Erdogan]

On bitstamp, I think there are one or two bots buying indiscriminately random amounts between 0.05 and 1 every few minutes. Have not found the precise timing. Has gone on a few days.

EDIT: 5 decimals

[Sitarow]

4:22PM EST

[bassclef]

The recent shakeouts took most of the floating supply from the market. This is a strong signal to get long while everyone else gets short. If we don't get significant selling, expect the market makers to take this one up for awhile.

[manfred]

Back in the early days, some of the smartest people in the world have been hanging around here. They were posting tech stuff, chatting about the fiat economy and politics, even trying to predict if a specific pattern was responsible for the USD/BTC price. But then; MtGox arrived. Then the trolls followed. And my ignore list must now contain more than 50 persons.

And yet this still seems to be the best thread in this whole forum.

Recall that, many months ago, about half of the postings on bitcointalk.org were about altcoins.  I am too lazy now to redo that statistic, but, by eyeball, the altcoins still seem to take a large fraction.

Many months ago most of the alt coin posts were mostly addresses for giveaways, until giveaways were banned. After that the alt coin announcements section seemed the most popular, with countless new alt coins being announced each week. Nowadays new coin launches have dried up leaving this as one of the most popular threads,

In my opinion at the end there will be less than half a dozen meaningfull coins.
Anything less than $20000 trading volume in 24h is a joke

[VincentX]

Greece is a basket case. It's not all that complicated to understand if you have a solid grounding in economics and human nature. Tsipras and Varoufakis are lefties elected to erase the consequences of a country spending far more than they earned for a prolonged time period. They face an impossible task and they know it, so they are busy blaming others for their obvious impending failure to do what they promised to do. Breaking promises seems to be the Greek national pastime. No sane person would want to negotiate with these bad faith actors even if they weren't deluded socialists.

This is essentially correct. Greece has had a negative trade balance for a very long time now, with no improvements on the horizon.

Greece will get kicked out of the EU. The EU is going to crumble because Greece is far from the only country in such economic dire straits. They are merely the first to default. These sovereign defaults will either take down many large European banks or usher in an era of massive currency devaluation. As nation after nation in the EU goes back to their own national currencies, Germany will find itself in a position of having nobody to sell it's goods to that has any money. Capital will flow in torrents into safe places, first Switzerland and England but later and in greater volume the USA.

This is completely wrong and demonstrates a clear lack of understanding of both European politics and European economics. Our institutions are complex and never straightforward. Even most Europeans don't understand them. You would do well to learn more about them before saying rediculous things like that.

Nevertheless: Greece will not be kicked out of the European Union. They will not leave the Eurozone or be kicked out of it. Leaving either the Eurozone or the Union would not absolve their debts. There will be more negotiations. A settlement will eventually be reached. The EU will continue to heavily subsidize Greece, which Greece is dependent on to survive. Their economy will take a turn for the worse but they'll still be better off than in any other situation.

As a whole, the EU is still running a trade surplus and is as such doing okay. Despite what you believe, Germany amounts to only 20% of the EU's economy and does not dominate European policy. This percentage is actually shrinking as eastern Europe developes. There is no massive currency devalutation nor is there one in the making. There isn't a single serious effort to reinstute national currencies, as not a single country would stand to benefit from it.

There is a whole lot of exaggeration when it comes to European economic and political instability (which is mostly just perception), and it seems you've fallen prey to it.

[readysalted89]

Back in the early days, some of the smartest people in the world have been hanging around here. They were posting tech stuff, chatting about the fiat economy and politics, even trying to predict if a specific pattern was responsible for the USD/BTC price. But then; MtGox arrived. Then the trolls followed. And my ignore list must now contain more than 50 persons.

And yet this still seems to be the best thread in this whole forum.

Recall that, many months ago, about half of the postings on bitcointalk.org were about altcoins.  I am too lazy now to redo that statistic, but, by eyeball, the altcoins still seem to take a large fraction.

Many months ago most of the alt coin posts were mostly addresses for giveaways, until giveaways were banned. After that the alt coin announcements section seemed the most popular, with countless new alt coins being announced each week. Nowadays new coin launches have dried up leaving this as one of the most popular threads,

In my opinion at the end there will be less than half a dozen meaningfull coins.
Anything less than $20000 trading volume in 24h is a joke

I wonder how long some of the lower end alt coin exchanges can keep going. The coins they list are almost worthless and have minuscule trading volumes. I'd be surprised if those exchanges are making profit. If bitcoin crashes lower then whatever takings they get will be too low to pay the hosting charges.

[damiano]

a lot of shorts were just closed within the past 10 minutes..longs are increasing by a good amount

[esse83]

For anyone not yet convinced that chinese exchanges are 100% fake, well look at this;

22:56:41 1366 793.784 <-- in an order book almost complete empty on the ask side (it was a buy - huobi). Before that there was a +400btc buy as well (also on an empty ask side). 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[elasticband]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=951731.msg10420334#msg10420334

[manfred]

For anyone not yet convinced that chinese exchanges are 100% fake, well look at this;

22:56:41 1366 793.784 <-- in an order book almost complete empty on the ask side (it was a buy - huobi). Before that there was a +400btc buy as well (also on an empty ask side). 

no CNY volume is taken into consideration from chinese exchanges
and no my trades are not fake just because i enter and exit lots of times and i am not a bot

[mrkavasaki]

strong buy imo

[fonzie]

strong buy imo

So it´s safe to say that this wasn´t another bull trap and we finally go only upupup?