Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

all I can see are some frustrate bulls not being able to reach 320 and close their longs on some suckers.

I am cool.

all I can see are some frustated bears not being able to reach any closer to 200 and get some cheap coins on some suckers.

I am cool

well, we can still hit 360 and then go into 100 territory, so I wouldnt be so cocky if I were bull.

and volume means shit. we all know that from china exchanges. you bullshave noticed that even china is following bitsatmp.  any explanation? 

You know the reason. The one I've been regurgitating over and over like a broken record*... all other things being equal, non leveraged non-zero fee volume has more impact than leveraged zero fee volume.

Doesn't mean Finex or Chinese volume doesn't matter, obviously not. But it means, Finex matters despite OKC's or BTCChina's volume being higher by a factor of 2 or 3, and even Bitstamp matters, despite volume being 1/10 of the big Chinese exchanges.

"Matters", for a brief moment, that is. Don't think it'll change the course, just delay the arrival a bit



* Yes, I like my metaphors mixed, not stirred

could be that or it could be that bitstamp is the only legit exchange that isnt involved in some form of fracional reserve/cooking of books. I am still laughing my ass at that bitfinex guy saying that he is trading on his own exchange.

If it sounded like I'm anti Bitfinex or anti OKC/BTCChina... I am not. Don't think they're more likely to run fractional reserve than Stamp, for instance.

My point was really just about what I think is a qualitative difference between one kind of volume and the other.

In a way, I think the people on the "traders/bots exchanges" occasionally glance at what's going on at the "grandma exchanges" as a way to gauge what "outside money" is doing.

At least, that's my explanation why Bitfinex (and to a lesser degree, Bitstamp) still have an impact on the market, despite the substantially higher volume on the CNY exchanges.

[12345mm]

I crashed, I burned
But then I learned
To keep my eye on you
You always say
You'll lead the way
But then you never do

I slowed, I swerved
But lost my nerve
And quickly looked away
When I looked back
The day was black
Then I heard you say

Why is the sun hot?
Why does it rain?
Why is there danger and
Why is there pain?
Why can't the burden we carry go away
And why isn't it Friday today?

Your lack of trust
Is hardly just
So do as you've been told
Please follow me
Into the sea
Don't worry if it's cold

I knew right then
My chance again
Would quickly slip away
I crash I cry
I burn but I
Still follow anyway

Why is the sea cool?
Why is it blue?
Why do I stay here?
Why is it you?
Notice the danger but don't help in any way
Why isn't it Friday today?

[damiano]

all I can see are some frustrate bulls not being able to reach 320 and close their longs on some suckers.

I am cool.

all I can see are some frustated bears not being able to reach any closer to 200 and get some cheap coins on some suckers.

I am cool

well, we can still hit 360 and then go into 100 territory, so I wouldnt be so cocky if I were bull.

and volume means shit. we all know that from china exchanges. you bullshave noticed that even china is following bitsatmp.  any explanation? 

You know the reason. The one I've been regurgitating over and over like a broken record*... all other things being equal, non leveraged non-zero fee volume has more impact than leveraged zero fee volume.

Doesn't mean Finex or Chinese volume doesn't matter, obviously not. But it means, Finex matters despite OKC's or BTCChina's volume being higher by a factor of 2 or 3, and even Bitstamp matters, despite volume being 1/10 of the big Chinese exchanges.

"Matters", for a brief moment, that is. Don't think it'll change the course, just delay the arrival a bit



* Yes, I like my metaphors mixed, not stirred

could be that or it could be that bitstamp is the only legit exchange that isnt involved in some form of fracional reserve/cooking of books. I am still laughing my ass at that bitfinex guy saying that he is trading on his own exchange.

Well considering that Stamp have lost 17,000 coins (and a lot of trust in the process), that seems like the least likely explanation.

Did they ever buy back those 17k?  I haven't been following them

[LFC_Bitcoin]

What's the general consensus on the next move?

Up
Down
Sideways


??

[Fatman3001]

What's the general consensus on the next move?

Up
Down
Sideways


??

Sidewaysish until exchanges get more fiat, then up.

[Sitarow]

7:45PM EST

[derpinheimer]

People are opening longs at 0.75% a day FFS! The entire USD Long end has been wiped...

Last time this happened, the price dropped 30% the 30 days following the spike. Obviously, this isn't reason to believe it will happen again in that same way, but it is a possible warning sign.

[Sitarow]

People are opening longs at 0.75% a day FFS! The entire USD Long end has been wiped...

Last time this happened, the price dropped 30% the 30 days following the spike. Obviously, this isn't reason to believe it will happen again in that same way, but it is a possible warning sign.

[inca]

People are opening longs at 0.75% a day FFS! The entire USD Long end has been wiped...

Last time this happened, the price dropped 30% the 30 days following the spike. Obviously, this isn't reason to believe it will happen again in that same way, but it is a possible warning sign.

Is all the USD in long positions or simply reserved?

[Morecoin Freeman]

I'd say we go down $300 was the top. Also most profitable direction for the whales since there will be more margin calls to trigger than in the other direction.

[derpinheimer]

People are opening longs at 0.75% a day FFS! The entire USD Long end has been wiped...

Last time this happened, the price dropped 30% the 30 days following the spike. Obviously, this isn't reason to believe it will happen again in that same way, but it is a possible warning sign.

Is all the USD in long positions or simply reserved?

Dont know.. probably reserved now that you mention it.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Fatman3001]

People are opening longs at 0.75% a day FFS! The entire USD Long end has been wiped...

Last time this happened, the price dropped 30% the 30 days following the spike. Obviously, this isn't reason to believe it will happen again in that same way, but it is a possible warning sign.

Is all the USD in long positions or simply reserved?

Dont know.. probably reserved now that you mention it.

Thought finex had started publishing whether they were just reserved or not.

[0x3d]

People are opening longs at 0.75% a day FFS! The entire USD Long end has been wiped...

Last time this happened, the price dropped 30% the 30 days following the spike. Obviously, this isn't reason to believe it will happen again in that same way, but it is a possible warning sign.

Is all the USD in long positions or simply reserved?

Dont know.. probably reserved now that you mention it.

Seems BFX recently added a column on their stats-page called "Total amount used in margin positions". Right now lowest available swap is a whopping 0.3% while stats look like this:

Currency   Flash Return Rate (*)   Average Variable Rate on TRS (**)   Total sum of active swaps   Total amount used in margin positions
USD   0.1047%   0.0374%   20,812,097.42 USD   20,393,559.40 USD

20.3 out of 20.8 mios used in open positions, so it's exactly the opposite: almost nothing is reserved (which seems like a silly and expensive idea anyways given how static the rates were these past few months).

However, swaps almost all used up to me suggests a top or at least some days of choppy sideways action. Bitstamp's huge wall keeping us down as well... I smell a weekend rallye, 361.53 before Monday

[Sitarow]

Simple profit taking?

Make it quick

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Got a feeling I'll wake up tomorrow morning to see sub 290.

[moffer5]

Simple profit taking?

Make it quick

There's certainly a bit of a dump going on right now on Bitfinex.

[damiano]

People are opening longs at 0.75% a day FFS! The entire USD Long end has been wiped...

Last time this happened, the price dropped 30% the 30 days following the spike. Obviously, this isn't reason to believe it will happen again in that same way, but it is a possible warning sign.

If price doesn't start to go up soon then they will most likely close the positions.  The % is to high to justify the loan rate for a declining/sideways price.

[Sitarow]

Simple profit taking?

Make it quick

There's certainly a bit of a dump going on right now on Bitfinex.

I don't call that a dump low volume.

[HalFinneysBrain]

The dump has come today, and shorts have covered a lot, but it looks like the reason why the price held up well is that longs leveraged up heavily.  It is worrying for the short term. 
I much prefer to see the shorts in the heavily overextended position.