Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Andre#]

Bears just waiting for someone to sell. Long swaps at 0.1% interest is high, but that is only the last few days of swap total.

The order books look better matched than they have for weeks.

One big buy and the bearish sentiment will evaporate in a  puff of smoke. Like most of the leveraged bears did the last month.

The "bearish sentiment" is solely connected to the imagined barrier of $300. If you look at 1d charts we are still just moving up the stairway to heaven.

Edit: So by wednesday we should be past $300.

If I look at the 1w charts, we are steadily going up like we have done for five weeks already. I expect $310 in a week.

[oda.krell]

as time goes by I am more and more convinced that the party is already over and that this was an epic bull trap.

What are you talking about tarmi? You haven't been bullish for months.

Phrased that way, it sounds more convincing

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[tarmi]

as time goes by I am more and more convinced that the party is already over and that this was an epic bull trap.

What are you talking about tarmi? You haven't been bullish for months.

Phrased that way, it sounds more convincing

it's not about phrases or trying to convince someone here. it's about the order book and the fact that bulls are very weak and not able to break 300 after 5 attempt.

very discouraging.

and I was right for not been bullish for months.

[oda.krell]

When the blue/yellow lines cross, prepare for another nose dive...

These lines are moving averages that are incorrectly shifted to the right. If you want to look at crossings, they should be put in the graph at the proper place in time.

I mean, its just a pattern I recognized. I admit I'm no day trader, but it doesn't take a pro to see some patterns and trends forming.

What do you mean they are incorrectly shifted to the right? How do I properly place it in the graph on bitcoinwisdom?  Thanks a lot.

Suppose you have a 9 day moving average in a daily chart, you average over nine days of which one is today, then 4 days are past and 4 days are yet to come. So you cannot know the 9-day moving average of today until 4 days from now. Hence the 9-day moving average can only be drawn into the chart up to 4 days ago. All those nice chart tools ignore this, and put the data point on today instead of 5 days ago. You can actually see this easily in the chart, as the line clearly lags behind the un-averaged data.

Conclusion, a 9-day average lags behind 4 days, and a 5 days average lags behind 2 days. Therefor, you can't compare them meaningfully unless you shift them to the right place in time (so 4 days to the left for the 9-day average, and 2 days to the left for the 5-day average).

I looked if you can shift the moving average lines to their proper place in bitcoinwisdom, but didn't find such option, unfortunately.

That's an objection to the use of averages in TA I've heard several times, and it's valid in principle, but:

a) It assumes you are looking at it from a signal processing perspective, where using averages like this way would simply be wrong. Instead, chartists know (intuitively at least, I believe) what is going on, and accept that the m day average from days n-m to n plotted to day n is a lagging indicator, and then try to work around this inherent lag.

b) There are other moving averages than the simple ma that are tweaked to address the lag problem, Hull's ma comes to mind. Of course, doing so comes at a cost (other constraints are smoothness, and a "bias" - probably not the correct technical term - towards a subset of the values on which your signal is based. The latter is imo the main "offense" of the Hull, for example).

[oda.krell]

as time goes by I am more and more convinced that the party is already over and that this was an epic bull trap.

What are you talking about tarmi? You haven't been bullish for months.

Phrased that way, it sounds more convincing

it's not about phrases or trying to convince someone here. it's about the order book and the fact that bulls are very weak and not able to break 300 after 5 attempt.

very discouraging.

and I was right for not been bullish for months.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you here (about bullish vs. bearish outcome). Plus, I like to read your comments and what you have to say about the market.

But I do think inca was right, that you've been bearish for a pretty long time, while the sentence "... as time goes by I am more ..." sounded like you had a more recent change of heart. Not  intended to be a personal attack, just some observation and a bit of poking fun

[Andre#]

Suppose you have a 9 day moving average in a daily chart, you average over nine days of which one is today, then 4 days are past and 4 days are yet to come. So you cannot know the 9-day moving average of today until 4 days from now. Hence the 9-day moving average can only be drawn into the chart up to 4 days ago. All those nice chart tools ignore this, and put the data point on today instead of 5 days ago. You can actually see this easily in the chart, as the line clearly lags behind the un-averaged data.

Conclusion, a 9-day average lags behind 4 days, and a 5 days average lags behind 2 days. Therefor, you can't compare them meaningfully unless you shift them to the right place in time (so 4 days to the left for the 9-day average, and 2 days to the left for the 5-day average).

I looked if you can shift the moving average lines to their proper place in bitcoinwisdom, but didn't find such option, unfortunately.

That's an objection to the use of averages in TA I've heard several times, and it's valid in principle, but:

a) It assumes you are looking at it from a signal processing perspective, where using averages like this way would simply be wrong. Instead, chartists know (intuitively at least, I believe) what is going on, and accept that the m day average from days n-m to n plotted to day n is a lagging indicator, and then try to work around this inherent lag.

Do you think TA should be time invariant? I.e. should it matter if we are talking about now, two months ago, or next month? Should it matter if things develop at half or double the speed? Should it matter if things go in reverse (that the principles involved in a decent in price are basically the same as the ones involved in an ascent)?

[paul2000]

This user is currently bored.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Silverspoon]

This user is currently bored.

Such fast-paced action.  Of latepfff!, Bitcoin reminds me of the Boston Molasses Disaster.

I mean, yeah, disaster, but also molasses...  Everything going horribly wrong ...in slow motion.

[inca]

Interesting how we see what we want to see in the charts, Silverspoon. I think we will attempt 290 today at some point.

Oda I would be keen to hear your point of view regarding where you think the price will move in the next 9 months - and whether you are buying here.

[Fatman3001]

stubborn realistic bulls.

22 mil of usd swaps opened.

ftfy

we will see about them being realistic once bears really start their attack.

I think bulls panic the best and the last.

The only thing I've ever agreed with you about, is the fact that the powers that be will want to squeeze longs eventually. BUT the fact the we had a great capitulation at $160, then a month of sideways action, then 3 weeks now of upwards grind, the best scenario would be to continue up and create even more confidence. This would squeeze most of the shorts out, and create even more longs (during this time I would loan out my USD at a high rate to gain a few %). While the shorts close out as we move up, I would start borrowing coins for extremely cheap rates, but not sell them just yet. The masses will gain confidence and help propel the price and USD rates up. Once we get to high 300s I would drop the hammer, and take most by surprise. I would sell all those coins I borrowed and eat up all the closing longs on the way down. For now, the problem is most of the longs opened were opened under and close to 200, so to close them out we would need to create a lower low, which isn't cheap. Whales have much less to gain now by dumping and squeezing longs, than to move up more and do it later.

The fact that we still have bears around here running their mouths means we are not ready yet for a drop. Once the bears go completely silent... Watch Out!!!

confidence that we will break 300 easily -   ✓

8 mil of new longs opened -   ✓

plenty of cheap coins to borrow -   ✓

bulls thinking that we already had capitulation -  ✓

no cheap dolla' / dolla' going ballistic -  ✓

somebody already hammering the order book -   ✓

Good luck dude!

Tarmi you dawg! You know we're going up. Why won't you celebrate with us?

as time goes by I am more and more convinced that the party is already over and that this was an epic bull trap.

You used to be so mellow, do you miss NLC?

[bad trader]

This user is currently bored.

Such fast-paced action.  Of latepfff!, Bitcoin reminds me of the Boston Molasses Disaster.

I mean, yeah, disaster, but also molasses...  Everything going horribly wrong ...in slow motion.

The price was below $250 back then. And things didn't go horribly wrong, unless you were a bear.

[Silverspoon]

^
I was promised $10k coin tho.  Everyone was super sure about $10k coins, so I just borrowed $ @10%/week from this guy I know & went long.  How much longer do you think this is gonna take?   Because I don't think I can stall him much longer, and he compounds

[RistoReptilian]

^What should *I* say? I was not promised $10k coins, they told me $300k coins were a sure thing!

[D05GTO]

Getting some good indicators here.  Trolls talking to themselves and creating new accounts to talk to themselves too. LOL

[michaelGedi]

^What should *I* say? I was not promised $10k coins, they told me $300k coins were a sure thing!

YOU told me 300k a coin! why am I still waiting, that's like, 1000x away from here  

[bank of bits]

There's a wall in under 300$, let's see if we can cross it.

[ChartBuddy]

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[michaelGedi]

There's a wall in under 300$, let's see if we can cross it.