Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

Suppose you have a 9 day moving average in a daily chart, you average over nine days of which one is today, then 4 days are past and 4 days are yet to come. So you cannot know the 9-day moving average of today until 4 days from now. Hence the 9-day moving average can only be drawn into the chart up to 4 days ago. All those nice chart tools ignore this, and put the data point on today instead of 5 days ago. You can actually see this easily in the chart, as the line clearly lags behind the un-averaged data.

Conclusion, a 9-day average lags behind 4 days, and a 5 days average lags behind 2 days. Therefor, you can't compare them meaningfully unless you shift them to the right place in time (so 4 days to the left for the 9-day average, and 2 days to the left for the 5-day average).

I looked if you can shift the moving average lines to their proper place in bitcoinwisdom, but didn't find such option, unfortunately.

That's an objection to the use of averages in TA I've heard several times, and it's valid in principle, but:

a) It assumes you are looking at it from a signal processing perspective, where using averages like this way would simply be wrong. Instead, chartists know (intuitively at least, I believe) what is going on, and accept that the m day average from days n-m to n plotted to day n is a lagging indicator, and then try to work around this inherent lag.

Do you think TA should be time invariant? I.e. should it matter if we are talking about now, two months ago, or next month? Should it matter if things develop at half or double the speed? Should it matter if things go in reverse (that the principles involved in a decent in price are basically the same as the ones involved in an ascent)?

Obviously not. Though a non-shifted MA doesn't mean you treat a descent like an ascent, no? Here's the counter question: Can you exclude (in general) that a signal that lags by n day is useless to base a market decision on? Maybe. Next question: What if a certain number of market participants make a decision based on the (mis)application of the lagging indicator? Still guaranteed that there is no exploitable pattern in there?

[Cassandra_PR]

There's a wall in under 300$, let's see if we can cross it.

Robot is more strong, it's all ...

http://images.sciencedaily.com/2013/05/130502142649-large.jpg

tethered
http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lx0gfqgzW61qd3rz1o1_500.png

[novusordo]

^
I was promised $10k coin tho.  Everyone was super sure about $10k coins, so I just borrowed $ @10%/week from this guy I know & went long.  How much longer do you think this is gonna take?   Because I don't think I can stall him much longer, and he compounds

It'll all work out My Pal, I promise.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[GreekGeek]

I'll just leave this here




source :  stats.grok.se

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[podyx]

I'll just leave this here




source :  stats.grok.se

fake...

[hyphymikey]

Why do all the bears keep saying that we didn't break 300 after X attempts? WE BROKE $300 ON BITFINEX!

If you say that one exchange doesn't count, then you can never reference Bitfinex interest rates, amount of longs, or shorts, if you clearly dismiss their price.

[ubercool]

Why do all the bears keep saying that we didn't break 300 after X attempts? WE BROKE $300 ON BITFINEX!

If you say that one exchange doesn't count, then you can never reference Bitfinex interest rates, amount of longs, or shorts, if you clearly dismiss their price.

But Bitstamp matter most and we did not on Bitstamp that is why we still have doubt that it is really bullish or not.

[bad trader]

Why do all the bears keep saying that we didn't break 300 after X attempts? WE BROKE $300 ON BITFINEX!

It's not a breakout, if it gets sold back down (or gets bought back up) almost immediately.

By the way, imminent breakout?

[kodtycoon]

Why do all the bears keep saying that we didn't break 300 after X attempts? WE BROKE $300 ON BITFINEX!

If you say that one exchange doesn't count, then you can never reference Bitfinex interest rates, amount of longs, or shorts, if you clearly dismiss their price.

But Bitstamp matter most and we did not on Bitstamp that is why we still have doubt that it is really bullish or not.

HAHA funny....

[WeltMaster]

... we still have doubt that it is really bullish or not.

This is shaping together nicely

[michaelGedi]

Why do all the bears keep saying that we didn't break 300 after X attempts? WE BROKE $300 ON BITFINEX!

If you say that one exchange doesn't count, then you can never reference Bitfinex interest rates, amount of longs, or shorts, if you clearly dismiss their price.

But Bitstamp matter most and we did not on Bitstamp that is why we still have doubt that it is really bullish or not.

HAHA funny....

the only reason it was broken temporarily on bfx was that some shorts got margin called or panic cancelled... so annoying as I had a sell order at 304.1 that was missed :

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[hyphymikey]

Why do all the bears keep saying that we didn't break 300 after X attempts? WE BROKE $300 ON BITFINEX!

It's not a breakout, if it gets sold back down (or gets bought back up) almost immediately.

By the way, imminent breakout?

A breach or break, and a breakout are two different things. They are acting like we never sold a single satoshi over $300, and we did.

[inca]

1.3k coins to 290
3.8k coins to 280

There is no longer huge ask wall on stamp.

Just a matter of when we try to push upwards IMO..

[Erdogan]

Prepare for the sunday evening run to safety (safety = be in bitcoin)

[macsga]

Yep. It seems we're in for a hot week. Let's hope we pump to the next leg up. I support the slow CCMF, but wouldn't mind for a huge pump up...

[michaelGedi]

[cogabonito]

There is no sign for huge pump. It's still a dream.