Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

I thought it would obviously have to be time invariant. Doesn't TA only depend on the data in the chart? I don't know much about TA, but Wikipedia and Investopedia say that TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same. Same for a market moving slow or fast. If all trades are done at half the speed, shouldn't the conclusions on the same pattern (but stretched twice as long in time) be the same? And isn't the model describing a bear trap and a bull trap essentially the same, just applied inverted?

I know there's a kind of "law" in (amateur, perhaps also professional) algorithmic trading that your strategy should be time invariant. Some even go as far as saying it should be market invariant. In reality, I think it's more a heuristic to find out if the "pattern" you think you detected is just noise, or if you're onto something.

This is completely 'finger in the air', but I sometimes think that certain patterns that seem to be a good predictor emerge across different time scales (hence, motivation for the above "law"), but they're not equally important/active across all scales.

EDIT: The previous paragraph would still be compatible with "TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same" I would argue: you could simply be missing one variable, say, something like "total volume necessary until pattern x becomes active/has a strong enough influence on the market".

To come to your counter question, I cannot exclude that a signal is useless (usable?) because it lags. Even more, since this signal is interpreted by humans with neural networks in their heads, they can very well learn how to interpret them without understanding them (as we do with so many things). Simply by training. One doesn't need to have an explicit  model that makes sense. And when many people start acting on a certain signal (even if it's not based on a proper model and it doesn't make sense), the very fact that a significant part of the actors take that signal into account creates a self fulfilling prophecy. So yes, that may very well constitute an exploitable pattern.

That was the point I was trying to make. I believe "chartism"/TA is more than just a self-fulfilling prophecy, but there is some self-fulfilling aspect to it, mainly in the form of the exact points of resistance/support.

What I mean is: Some combination of signals tells traders "market is bearish, even though we're currently going up" (the non circular part of TA). Next question, where exactly to go short? "Hm, let's say DSMA50. Seems like a good place as any." After the first few sell at exactly that point, it becomes a "point of heavy resistance" (the circular part of TA).

/my 2 crackpot cents

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[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[fichtn12345]

Winklevoss twins speaking about Bitcoin at SXSW tomorrow in Texas, surprised no one has mentioned this. I didn't even know about it until my wife told me that she's going to watch.

I assumed that most people here also read the /r/bitcoinmarkets daily trading thread. Anyways we had some discussion on this yesterday:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2z3b2d/daily_discussion_sunday_march_15_2015/cpfgylz

There are a lot of skeptics that this alone will be the spark to lead to the next rally (I'm talking about their exchange). It's an overestimated aspect if you want my opinion. Besides there were a lot of other bullish news that the market didn't even care for. The ETF on the other hand...  

the exchange itself shouldn't move the market at first but I expect that the potential announcement of it being "sponsored" by X major US bank will give us a lift.

This. If somehow they will be able to establish an "i/o" through the fiat world, this will be the catalyst towards the biggest rally so far. Yet though, there's also another bank in the EU that plays that role (Fidor Bank) but no significant CCMF yet. Maybe because the EU BTC infrastructure is a lot smaller than the USA's one.

I'm confident though, that the twins are on the right track for a perfect rally. We'll see.

afaik fidor is not for europeans... only for germans, no?

[HarmonLi]

Winklevoss twins speaking about Bitcoin at SXSW tomorrow in Texas, surprised no one has mentioned this. I didn't even know about it until my wife told me that she's going to watch.

I assumed that most people here also read the /r/bitcoinmarkets daily trading thread. Anyways we had some discussion on this yesterday:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2z3b2d/daily_discussion_sunday_march_15_2015/cpfgylz

There are a lot of skeptics that this alone will be the spark to lead to the next rally (I'm talking about their exchange). It's an overestimated aspect if you want my opinion. Besides there were a lot of other bullish news that the market didn't even care for. The ETF on the other hand...  

the exchange itself shouldn't move the market at first but I expect that the potential announcement of it being "sponsored" by X major US bank will give us a lift.

This. If somehow they will be able to establish an "i/o" through the fiat world, this will be the catalyst towards the biggest rally so far. Yet though, there's also another bank in the EU that plays that role (Fidor Bank) but no significant CCMF yet. Maybe because the EU BTC infrastructure is a lot smaller than the USA's one.

I'm confident though, that the twins are on the right track for a perfect rally. We'll see.

afaik fidor is not for europeans... only for germans, no?

I think someone said and quoted a phrase that if you want to open up that one account that enables you to trade on their new open platform, you have to be a German resident. But if this is working well, who knows... they might just go and offer it for other EU customers, too!

[macsga]

Winklevoss twins speaking about Bitcoin at SXSW tomorrow in Texas, surprised no one has mentioned this. I didn't even know about it until my wife told me that she's going to watch.

I assumed that most people here also read the /r/bitcoinmarkets daily trading thread. Anyways we had some discussion on this yesterday:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2z3b2d/daily_discussion_sunday_march_15_2015/cpfgylz

There are a lot of skeptics that this alone will be the spark to lead to the next rally (I'm talking about their exchange). It's an overestimated aspect if you want my opinion. Besides there were a lot of other bullish news that the market didn't even care for. The ETF on the other hand...  

the exchange itself shouldn't move the market at first but I expect that the potential announcement of it being "sponsored" by X major US bank will give us a lift.

This. If somehow they will be able to establish an "i/o" through the fiat world, this will be the catalyst towards the biggest rally so far. Yet though, there's also another bank in the EU that plays that role (Fidor Bank) but no significant CCMF yet. Maybe because the EU BTC infrastructure is a lot smaller than the USA's one.

I'm confident though, that the twins are on the right track for a perfect rally. We'll see.

afaik fidor is not for europeans... only for germans, no?

I think someone said and quoted a phrase that if you want to open up that one account that enables you to trade on their new open platform, you have to be a German resident. But if this is working well, who knows... they might just go and offer it for other EU customers, too!

They (Kraken) accept SEPA, which I personally verified. It works for everybody inside the EU.

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

afaik fidor is not for europeans... only for germans, no?

Correct. You need to go to a german post office with german papers to verify your identity.

However, this is likely to change in the future, subject to regulatory approval.

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

They (Kraken) accept SEPA, which I personally verified. It works for everybody inside the EU.

Ah, you already edited your post...

[Andre#]

I thought it would obviously have to be time invariant. Doesn't TA only depend on the data in the chart? I don't know much about TA, but Wikipedia and Investopedia say that TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same. Same for a market moving slow or fast. If all trades are done at half the speed, shouldn't the conclusions on the same pattern (but stretched twice as long in time) be the same? And isn't the model describing a bear trap and a bull trap essentially the same, just applied inverted?

I know there's a kind of "law" in (amateur, perhaps also professional) algorithmic trading that your strategy should be time invariant. Some even go as far as saying it should be market invariant. In reality, I think it's more a heuristic to find out if the "pattern" you think you detected is just noise, or if you're onto something.

This is completely 'finger in the air', but I sometimes think that certain patterns that seem to be a good predictor emerge across different time scales (hence, motivation for the above "law"), but they're not equally important/active across all scales.

EDIT: The previous paragraph would still be compatible with "TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same" I would argue: you could simply be missing one variable, say, something like "total volume necessary until pattern x becomes active/has a strong enough influence on the market".

To come to your counter question, I cannot exclude that a signal is useless (usable?) because it lags. Even more, since this signal is interpreted by humans with neural networks in their heads, they can very well learn how to interpret them without understanding them (as we do with so many things). Simply by training. One doesn't need to have an explicit  model that makes sense. And when many people start acting on a certain signal (even if it's not based on a proper model and it doesn't make sense), the very fact that a significant part of the actors take that signal into account creates a self fulfilling prophecy. So yes, that may very well constitute an exploitable pattern.

That was the point I was trying to make. I believe "chartism"/TA is more than just a self-fulfilling prophecy, but there is some self-fulfilling aspect to it, mainly in the form of the exact points of resistance/support.

What I mean is: Some combination of signals tells traders "market is bearish, even though we're currently going up" (the non circular part of TA). Next question, where exactly to go short? "Hm, let's say DSMA50. Seems like a good place as any." After the first few sell at exactly that point, it becomes a "point of heavy resistance" (the circular part of TA).

/my 2 crackpot cents

Lets agree to disagree. 

[macsga]

They (Kraken) accept SEPA, which I personally verified. It works for everybody inside the EU.

Ah, you already edited your post...

Yep, I figured that someone could misunderstood it for "Fidor" accepts SEPA without an account there (which would be utterly wrong).

[michaelGedi]

Lets agree to disagree.  

[inca]

As expected we drifted back up into 290's. Hopefully some more fiat will arrive at finex today to be lent out and bring down the swap interest rate.

Perhaps an attack on 300 again this week propelled by some good news.

DOI: In any case I just bought on circle again.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[oda.krell]

Lets agree to disagree.  

If there's just one good thing about the current market condition (slightly boring, slightly leaning upwards) it's that it's possible to have a civilized conversation in here

[inca]

Lets agree to disagree.  

If there's just one good thing about the current market condition (slightly boring, slightly leaning upwards) it's that it's possible to have a civilized conversation in here

Oda, I would be keen to hear your current position and market expectations..

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I thought it would obviously have to be time invariant. Doesn't TA only depend on the data in the chart? I don't know much about TA, but Wikipedia and Investopedia say that TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same. Same for a market moving slow or fast. If all trades are done at half the speed, shouldn't the conclusions on the same pattern (but stretched twice as long in time) be the same? And isn't the model describing a bear trap and a bull trap essentially the same, just applied inverted?

I know there's a kind of "law" in (amateur, perhaps also professional) algorithmic trading that your strategy should be time invariant. Some even go as far as saying it should be market invariant. In reality, I think it's more a heuristic to find out if the "pattern" you think you detected is just noise, or if you're onto something.

This is completely 'finger in the air', but I sometimes think that certain patterns that seem to be a good predictor emerge across different time scales (hence, motivation for the above "law"), but they're not equally important/active across all scales.

EDIT: The previous paragraph would still be compatible with "TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same" I would argue: you could simply be missing one variable, say, something like "total volume necessary until pattern x becomes active/has a strong enough influence on the market".

To come to your counter question, I cannot exclude that a signal is useless (usable?) because it lags. Even more, since this signal is interpreted by humans with neural networks in their heads, they can very well learn how to interpret them without understanding them (as we do with so many things). Simply by training. One doesn't need to have an explicit  model that makes sense. And when many people start acting on a certain signal (even if it's not based on a proper model and it doesn't make sense), the very fact that a significant part of the actors take that signal into account creates a self fulfilling prophecy. So yes, that may very well constitute an exploitable pattern.

That was the point I was trying to make. I believe "chartism"/TA is more than just a self-fulfilling prophecy, but there is some self-fulfilling aspect to it, mainly in the form of the exact points of resistance/support.

What I mean is: Some combination of signals tells traders "market is bearish, even though we're currently going up" (the non circular part of TA). Next question, where exactly to go short? "Hm, let's say DSMA50. Seems like a good place as any." After the first few sell at exactly that point, it becomes a "point of heavy resistance" (the circular part of TA).

/my 2 crackpot cents

I am not a TA expert (I just stare at charts without a clearcut method), but my theoretical take on TA is that in order to be successful it has to describe/utilize human valuation psychology (and the bugs and quirks therein).

If that's the case, given that the human brain has a memory function, and thus has been 'trained' by prior price action, it makes sense that your price prediction signals could vary over time as well, no?

[inca]

I thought it would obviously have to be time invariant. Doesn't TA only depend on the data in the chart? I don't know much about TA, but Wikipedia and Investopedia say that TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same. Same for a market moving slow or fast. If all trades are done at half the speed, shouldn't the conclusions on the same pattern (but stretched twice as long in time) be the same? And isn't the model describing a bear trap and a bull trap essentially the same, just applied inverted?

I know there's a kind of "law" in (amateur, perhaps also professional) algorithmic trading that your strategy should be time invariant. Some even go as far as saying it should be market invariant. In reality, I think it's more a heuristic to find out if the "pattern" you think you detected is just noise, or if you're onto something.

This is completely 'finger in the air', but I sometimes think that certain patterns that seem to be a good predictor emerge across different time scales (hence, motivation for the above "law"), but they're not equally important/active across all scales.

EDIT: The previous paragraph would still be compatible with "TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same" I would argue: you could simply be missing one variable, say, something like "total volume necessary until pattern x becomes active/has a strong enough influence on the market".

To come to your counter question, I cannot exclude that a signal is useless (usable?) because it lags. Even more, since this signal is interpreted by humans with neural networks in their heads, they can very well learn how to interpret them without understanding them (as we do with so many things). Simply by training. One doesn't need to have an explicit  model that makes sense. And when many people start acting on a certain signal (even if it's not based on a proper model and it doesn't make sense), the very fact that a significant part of the actors take that signal into account creates a self fulfilling prophecy. So yes, that may very well constitute an exploitable pattern.

That was the point I was trying to make. I believe "chartism"/TA is more than just a self-fulfilling prophecy, but there is some self-fulfilling aspect to it, mainly in the form of the exact points of resistance/support.

What I mean is: Some combination of signals tells traders "market is bearish, even though we're currently going up" (the non circular part of TA). Next question, where exactly to go short? "Hm, let's say DSMA50. Seems like a good place as any." After the first few sell at exactly that point, it becomes a "point of heavy resistance" (the circular part of TA).

/my 2 crackpot cents

I am not a TA expert, but my take on TA is that in order to be successful it has to describe/utilize human valuation psychology (and the bugs and quirks therein).

If that's the case, given that the human brain has a memory function, and thus has been 'trained' by prior price action, it makes sense that your price prediction signals could vary over time as well, no?

I generally think of market price movements in terms of the madness and delusion of crowds, rather than the actions of lots of individuals. Does the mob have a memory?

[oda.krell]

Lets agree to disagree.  

If there's just one good thing about the current market condition (slightly boring, slightly leaning upwards) it's that it's possible to have a civilized conversation in here

Oda, I would be keen to hear your current position and market expectations..

Still mostly long, still undecided where we're heading in the near to mid future. In the simplest terms, there's a strong case for the bears in that the move from Jan looks very much not impulsive (volume wise, and probably also by EW - which I don't really practice though), and there's a strong case for the bulls in that the early Jan capitulation looked very convincing (volume wise again), that we broke a number of long standing resistances (MAs and TLs), and finally that so far, the market seems to shake off any attempt to induce panic selling. If that sounds rather unhelpful, you're entirely right, but that's all I got :/

[Bitcoiner_cph]

I generally think of market price movements in terms of the madness and delusion of crowds, rather than the actions of lots of individuals. Does the mob have a memory?

The boom / bull market can be on now, it can hit 2500-5000 in a few weeks or months. The crowds are getting mad and delusive :0)

[asuryan180]

I generally think of market price movements in terms of the madness and delusion of crowds, rather than the actions of lots of individuals. Does the mob have a memory?

The boom / bull market can be on now, it can hit 2500-5000 in a few weeks or months. The crowds are getting mad and delusive :0)

Please don't tell me you believe this lol we are going nowhere near them figures for a long time there is no money coming to make them figures a reality my little sugar plum.

[inca]

Still mostly long, still undecided where we're heading in the near to mid future. In the simplest terms, there's a strong case for the bears in that the move from Jan looks very much not impulsive (volume wise, and probably also by EW - which I don't really practice though), and there's a strong case for the bulls in that the early Jan capitulation looked very convincing (volume wise again), that we broke a number of long standing resistances (MAs and TLs), and finally that so far, the market seems to shake off any attempt to induce panic selling. If that sounds rather unhelpful, you're entirely right, but that's all I got :/

I have a distinct memory in december 2013 of wishing I had been granted a little more time to accumulate coins before the rapid move upwards. I have now accumulated a lot more so that wish has come true. I could have had a lot more but I suspect most people on here were surprised by the length and depth of the bear market in 2014.

I personally am a little bit sceptical we immediately go into bull mode. The January low seems legitimate in terms of being a high volume crash and subsequent reversal though a lot depends on where the price settles in the coming weeks. I expect range trading around this level until some major news later this year or the halving gets close enough to stimulate a FOMO rally. But I didn't predict the last bull run either :p