Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I am not a TA expert, but my take on TA is that in order to be successful it has to describe/utilize human valuation psychology (and the bugs and quirks therein).
If that's the case, given that the human brain has a memory function, and thus has been 'trained' by prior price action, it makes sense that your price prediction signals could vary over time as well, no?

I generally think of market price movements in terms of the madness and delusion of crowds, rather than the actions of lots of individuals. Does the mob have a memory?

While it might be easier to model a mobs behavior as something different entirely, the truth is of course that a mob is comprised of individuals (keeping in mind that individuals act differently in various situations).  So yes, the mob has a memory.

[Bitcoiner_cph]

I generally think of market price movements in terms of the madness and delusion of crowds, rather than the actions of lots of individuals. Does the mob have a memory?

The boom / bull market can be on now, it can hit 2500-5000 in a few weeks or months. The crowds are getting mad and delusive :0)

Please don't tell me you believe this lol we are going nowhere near them figures for a long time there is no money coming to make them figures a reality my little sugar plum.

Yes I believe this to happen. I predicted the last bull marked, unfortunately I did not have much to buy for at that time. And I have to say I expected that we would have new bull marked early in 2014, that was not right, as you all know.

But yes I believe we are in a bull trend already and that we can see an new boom very soon. I also think that ones we get over 300 the next time, we never go to 2xxs again.

[asuryan180]

I generally think of market price movements in terms of the madness and delusion of crowds, rather than the actions of lots of individuals. Does the mob have a memory?

The boom / bull market can be on now, it can hit 2500-5000 in a few weeks or months. The crowds are getting mad and delusive :0)

Please don't tell me you believe this lol we are going nowhere near them figures for a long time there is no money coming to make them figures a reality my little sugar plum.

Yes I believe this to happen. I predicted the last bull marked, unfortunately I did not have much to buy for at that time. And I have to say I expected that we would have new bull marked early in 2014, that was not right, as you all know.

But yes I believe we are in a bull trend already and that we can see an new boom very soon. I also think that ones we get over 300 the next time, we never go to 2xxs again.

Yes a lot of us believe we are changing trend but that is not what you wrote you was saying it can hit 2500-5000 in a few weeks maybe months i am happy to see this but i find it near impossible lol

To many bag holders be dumping well before then your last statement although changed an awful lot has a greater grasp on reality once we get to 300 it will be a good sign if it holds.

Stick around these guys will teach you what you need to know

[Bitcoiner_cph]

Yes a lot of us believe we are changing trend but that is not what you wrote you was saying it can hit 2500-5000 in a few weeks maybe months i am happy to see this but i find it near impossible lol

To many bag holders be dumping well before then your last statement although changed an awful lot has a greater grasp on reality once we get to 300 it will be a good sign if it holds.

Stick around these guys will teach you what you need to know

This kind of growth happened before. The 3-5 big bulls of bitcoins history have all been in that range %-wize. So its endeed possible. Only time will tell. As it is now, everything looks like we are in an bull marked and the boom is on in a matter of days.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[gentlemand]

This kind of growth happened before. The 3-5 big bulls of bitcoins history have all been in that range %-wize. So its endeed possible. Only time will tell. As it is now, everything looks like we are in an bull marked and the boom is on in a matter of days.

The market has very little resemblance to how it was during previous price explosions. Anyone basing anything off historical data got their posterior handed to them over the last year or so.

If BTC was five hundred years old then old data is worth listening to. Right now it's all being made up as we go along.

[Fatman3001]

I am looking forward to the launch of Ethereum and I am trying to keep an eye on the development process. Doing so makes me appreciate how far Bitcoin has come, and how much it takes to get something like a cryptocurrency to work at all, let alone get someone to adopt it.

The Ethereum team has something called the Bug Bounty System which is a way to engage people to hunt down bugs.

One of the bugs they found were "Jonas Nick‘s discovery that you could send a negative payment to somebody which moves value from their account to yours!"
(https://blog.ethereum.org/2015/03/12/getting-to-the-frontier/#comment-1903578114)

And this was scheduled to be released the 20th of March.

[inca]

This kind of growth happened before. The 3-5 big bulls of bitcoins history have all been in that range %-wize. So its endeed possible. Only time will tell. As it is now, everything looks like we are in an bull marked and the boom is on in a matter of days.

The market has very little resemblance to how it was during previous price explosions. Anyone basing anything off historical data got their posterior handed to them over the last year or so.

If BTC was five hundred years old then old data is worth listening to. Right now it's all being made up as we go along.

Uncertainty is the only constant.

But this year will be a lot more fun if the price breaks out of the log downtrend definitively, even if just to float around for the rest of the year. The market needs to know what a bitcoin is worth - 1200, 160 or somewhere in between

[Wandererfromthenorth]

As price slowly drifts upwards on low volume, bid sum on exchanges is still relentlessly decreasing.
If this is supposed to be a sustainable uptrend/trend reversal/post capitulation FOMO blah blah blah it should be the opposite. Price convincingly moving up with fresh fiat flooding exchanges. That's what happened with previous bubbles.

No obvious evidence of new monies coming in = no bull market

This could change of course, but for the moment it's not happening.
Price could still pump short term to $330-$350, but this is troubling news for the bulls, long term that is.

Amount of bids sitting at huobi is almost at 1 year low...



As a reference, the bids sitting at Mtgox at same current price in 2013 were way more than the bids on all current major exchanges combined (and at the time there was Bitstamp and especially BTCchina which were going crazy).

[tarmi]

I dont margin trade and use obscure exchanges like bitfinex.

already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...

LOL pwnage.

lel

if you are quoting me try not to miss some post in between.

...


come on bulls, push it a little bit higher, dont disappoint me now.

[Bitcoiner_cph]

Uncertainty is the only constant.

But this year will be a lot more fun if the price breaks out of the log downtrend definitively, even if just to float around for the rest of the year. The market needs to know what a bitcoin is worth - 1200, 160 or somewhere in between

10.000 USD pr coin is what I would say is the real bitcoin price, if the market was fully informed. I think a lot will happen soon, and definitely the prices should be between 1000 and 10000 soon... with the 2500-5000 an more realistic range of the next bull market.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Bitcoiner_cph]

come on bulls, push it a little bit higher, dont disappoint me now.

The next time 300 is broken, then we will go up fast... somewhere between 350 - 800 in weeks.

[SkyValeey]

-800? lol

try 350-10000000000

351 is also in lol

[tarmi]

800 in two weeks™.

lel

that's why bulls are trying to break 300 by pushing some shorts and triggering stop losses with borrowed usd. much confidence.

[michaelGedi]

just reading "elliott wave principle" and came across an interesting point. Market reversals don't happen on high volume and with strong acceleration, they tend to happen when the extremes have finally been exhausted so volume decreases (imagine a bull run hitting it's peak, as we may have done now mid-term, the bull runs out of breath and gets exhausted).

Also key to note is that during final stages of bull markets before reversal, market participants when polled show demonstrably more optimism than at other times in the market. Basically the more you "believe" as a mass, the closer you get to being delusional and running out of steam, after that the law of gravity comes into action. The same would apply to the inverse. For example, once you lose everything, the only way left is up!



RE price, I think bitcoin potential price needs to be totally re-evaluated. For one, the market has matured and the crazy volatility of the past has been gradually decreasing. More importantly, Gox is out of the picture now, and all the previous predictions were based on sentiment and information that has been skewed by a skewed exchange.

Also important to note is that as price increases, the ability to affect the price by adding more money becomes increasingly difficult.

[Andre#]

As price slowly drifts upwards on low volume

What are you talking about? Volume on Finex has been between 50 and 100 million USD per week the past five weeks.

[infofront]

just reading "elliott wave principle" and came across an interesting point. Market reversals don't happen on high volume and with strong acceleration, they tend to happen when the extremes have finally been exhausted so volume decreases (imagine a bull run hitting it's peak, as we may have done now mid-term, the bull runs out of breath and gets exhausted).

Also key to note is that during final stages of bull markets before reversal, market participants when polled show demonstrably more optimism than at other times in the market. Basically the more you "believe" as a mass, the closer you get to being delusional and running out of steam, after that the law of gravity comes into action. The same would apply to the inverse. For example, once you lose everything, the only way left is up!



RE price, I think bitcoin potential price needs to be totally re-evaluated. For one, the market has matured and the crazy volatility of the past has been gradually decreasing. More importantly, Gox is out of the picture now, and all the previous predictions were based on sentiment and information that has been skewed by a skewed exchange.

Also important to note is that as price increases, the ability to affect the price by adding more money becomes increasingly difficult.

You make some good points here. The extremely bullish sentiment on this forum is part of the reason I'm now short.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

As price slowly drifts upwards on low volume

What are you talking about? Volume on Finex has been between 50 and 100 million USD per week the past five weeks.

I was talking about right now.

[Bitcoiner_cph]

just reading "elliott wave principle" and came across an interesting point. Market reversals don't happen on high volume and with strong acceleration, they tend to happen when the extremes have finally been exhausted so volume decreases (imagine a bull run hitting it's peak, as we may have done now mid-term, the bull runs out of breath and gets exhausted).

Also key to note is that during final stages of bull markets before reversal, market participants when polled show demonstrably more optimism than at other times in the market. Basically the more you "believe" as a mass, the closer you get to being delusional and running out of steam, after that the law of gravity comes into action. The same would apply to the inverse. For example, once you lose everything, the only way left is up!



RE price, I think bitcoin potential price needs to be totally re-evaluated. For one, the market has matured and the crazy volatility of the past has been gradually decreasing. More importantly, Gox is out of the picture now, and all the previous predictions were based on sentiment and information that has been skewed by a skewed exchange.

Also important to note is that as price increases, the ability to affect the price by adding more money becomes increasingly difficult.

This post is rigged. The Volumes have been high the last weeks!

Bitcoin is an revolution -->> Bull market.

The old masters (illuminati + free masons who control the governments and the masses) have spread misinformation about Bitcoins and in 2014 they succeded at controlling the masses minds to believe that Bitcoin is something bad and that its already dead and so on. The real situation is that these organisations ( that inslave the masses) only can live in dark times, and the internet have exposed them to the masses (more and more know about them and how they control or used to control us), that combined with that Bitcoin is VERY VERY VERY strong and IMPOSSIBLE to kill, as its all over the world (no central point) makes Bitcoin the long term winner. Therefore if you combine the TA with these truths it calls for a new bull market and I believe we are in it now!! Many Bitcoin lovers have got insecure due to the FUD of the evil "old masters", fortunately these get more and more informed and realized that Bitcoin is the strongest money system on the planet and begin to buy Bitcoin again --->> Bitcoin price will explode!