Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Fatman3001]

Hmmm.... Bearish rising wedge?

15m, btcchina:





I'm really curious if this is rising wedge.. Imo looks like.

More to read: http://www.stock-trading-infocentre.com/rising-wedge.html

Sorry for quoting myself. But that post is proof (for anti-AT traders) that simple AT is not bs. It was easy to see.

For something to be proven as true it is not sufficient with a piece of evidence, or several pieces of evidence that supports a statement. It also needs to be resistant to being falsified/proven to be false. So to have any hope of claiming that this piece of evidence supports TA (I'm guessing by AT you mean TA) you have to at least present an explanation on what you expect from TA, or a theory or thesis.

[Fatman3001]

Ah yes. Market maker is playing again on finex and okcoin... Couldn't be more obvious!  

Starting to ask myself how quick can one of those exchanges become new gox.

What specific scenario is it you worry about?

[Fatman3001]

The worst thing is that price is 100% manipulated by chinese exchanges.

Look at charts in various scales... It looks weird, not naturally...

Strange pumps by bullish flag, flat correction,  then dump, dump, then pump...

Obviously there's some pattern (look at 4h or 6h) but it's pretty new formation at btc chart.

I think IT MUST end up by the final big dump or big pump. Personally I think it will be dump.

Btw. Price fluctuations last days are really tiring for both sides: bulls and bears. Too much confusion and chart "raping"!

Market maker is mostly working on finex because it is the most liquid exchange at the moment. You can see how he is putting up those small ask walls and pushing the price down. Sure he is also manipulating on okcoin, since all small traders are looking those fake exchanges.

Personally I don't care which way we go because I don't have open position - waiting for the right moment to jump in.
I think people should really think about how stable are those exchanges and if it is worth having bitcoins or fiat there. When Gox started manipulating the price... well we all know what happened!

People shouldn't trade right now. Maybe few are making money...

Ah yes. Market maker is playing again on finex and okcoin... Couldn't be more obvious! 

Starting to ask myself how quick can one of those exchanges become new gox.

What specific scenario is it you worry about?

There was price manipulation on Gox, with Willy or without it... Where is Gox now? 

But there were withdrawal problems with Gox 8 months ahead of them going under, are there any with similar signs of malaise?

[Fatman3001]

But there were withdrawal problems with Gox 8 months ahead of them going under, are there any with similar signs of malaise?

USD withdraws. Personaly I made last EUR withdraw from Gox in November. Withdraws for JPY worked till end of December if I'm right.
Anyway... It can happen really quick.

I guess so. After hearing the interview of the finex cso trading I got the feeling they might stumble a bit in the future. I definitely wouldn't keep much at finex.

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2t3iz5/bitfinex_cso_phillip_g_potter_admits_to_trading/

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[tarmi]

now it's finex' fault?

lel

[Fatman3001]

now it's finex' fault?

lel

What is?

[tarmi]

250 is the new 300.

[12345mm]

yeaaaah ... this pattern has been repeated / ongoing last few days ... stack the books with multiple small bid/ask walls (hint: on finex many of the ones that are 15 , 20 , 30, 40 , 50 , 60 , or slightly off exact duplicate orders , all over the place) to flatline the market , then fake off the cliff , followed by immediate reversal in a stutter step pattern up , and back to flatline ... down 5-10 up 5-10 stop , down 5-10 up 5-10 stop ... tiring isn't the word i'd use ... this is a floating value currency ... you / other whales can obviously make it whatever you want it to be ... the little people can't stop you from moving it ... all we can do is bleed a couple bucks on chasing price swings / fees so move it for real instead of this piddly bullshit ... you'll make a lot more on $20-$25 swings than $5 ones anyway (or a simple $100 increase of course ) ...

as for the exchanges themselves manipulating the prices / insider trading ... well ... yeah ... duh ... that's been done throughout the entire history of btc ... typically that's done with automated trading bots though , not with this round number stuff , so in this case , i'd doubt it's exchange based manipulation but rather the action of manual trading ...

[Ezmoneyezlife]

But there were withdrawal problems with Gox 8 months ahead of them going under, are there any with similar signs of malaise?

USD withdraws. Personaly I made last EUR withdraw from Gox in November. Withdraws for JPY worked till end of December if I'm right.
Anyway... It can happen really quick.

I guess so. After hearing the interview of the finex cso trading I got the feeling they might stumble a bit in the future. I definitely wouldn't keep much at finex.

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2t3iz5/bitfinex_cso_phillip_g_potter_admits_to_trading/

"The hilarious thing is that insider trading happens at every single securities dealer and exchange ever since the frelling South Sea Bubble in 1720."  What do you want from centralized exchange, goxobi/okgox/stamp... owners do the same thing, dude just gave a honest answer, deal with it. I dont think finex will gox, for me finex and btc-e are the most reliable exchanges by far, if you trade you accept risks, otherwise just wait until btc hits sub 200$, buy btc and keep it in cold storage.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[yui]

but it already hit sub 200 what do you want now

[JorgeStolfi]

There is no currency conversion cost when the demand for USD is greater than the demand for local currency (which is most common). The other trader eats that cost. happily. It's true that exchanging that large of an amount is problematic, so what is much more likely is that I'd exchange a smaller amount and get a discount on my vacation rather than a free trip. It's still a good deal, all things else being equal.

That may be a good deal for you, but bitcoiner tourists doing that will not be enough to support a "rebittance" business.

Moreover, their business will depress only the BTC:PHP price in the local market and exchanges, not the BTC:USD price.  Local arbitragers could buy cheap BTC with PHP and re-sell them locally (or to tourists) for USD, at a higher price; but they too will need to change the USD into PHP for continuing operation, which again runs into the conversion fee barrier.

[Cassius]

There is no currency conversion cost when the demand for USD is greater than the demand for local currency (which is most common). The other trader eats that cost. happily. It's true that exchanging that large of an amount is problematic, so what is much more likely is that I'd exchange a smaller amount and get a discount on my vacation rather than a free trip. It's still a good deal, all things else being equal.

That may be a good deal for you, but bitcoiner tourists doing that will not be enough to support a "rebittance" business.

Moreover, their business will depress only the BTC:PHP price in the local market and exchanges, not the BTC:USD price.  Local arbitragers could buy cheap BTC with PHP and re-sell them locally (or to tourists) for USD, at a higher price; but they too will need to change the USD into PHP for continuing operation, which again runs into the conversion fee barrier.

If only it could be used to buy things globally, creating some kind of joined-up economy and demand that went beyond remittance.
Sigh. We've done this conversation before.

Edit: here. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg10839664#msg10839664
You never did bother to give a proper reply.

[JorgeStolfi]

Even at replacing 1% of Gold, it'd be 70bn marketcap. And chances of that are severely over 5%. Actually it's a pretty good bet that it'll happen, but people in countries with hard currencies cannot really understand why that will be.

For example, having the 'security' of USD or EUR (=being American or European), you tend to see BTC as irrelevant, while if your national currency is junk, you value BTC just as you would value hard-to-find-assets like gold and hard currencies. It's a concept that is very elusive to western minds / developed countries.

Even the apparent "stability" and boredom that makes traders cringe for the 250$ mark, may be a +20% gain for someone living in a country where their national currency is on a declining curve during the last months.

Except that, to someone who has no ideological motivations and merely looks at the price charts, BTC looks worse than the Argentinean peso or Russian rubles.  No one will consider BTC an option to escape inflation until those crazy sudden swings stop and the price remains stable for a year.

As for replacing gold: with a 30% loss over the last few years, gold does not look like the solid refuge that it once was.  Still, it has a fairly high rock-bottom price, maybe 100-200 $/ounce, due to its assured continuing demand for jewelry and industrial use, as well as his historical glamour.  So, the price of gold is unlikely to drop by another 50% in the next few years, and any further drop will be gradual enough for individuals to take their money out before losing too much. 

In contrast, bitcoin does not have such floor.  Even the 5 $/BTC estimated for e-payment usage depends on it continuing to to be the main cryptocurrency for that use, which is not at all certain. Bircoin price drops have been sudden and totally unpredictable, so investors would probably have to bear higher losses when trying to run away from them.

Anyway, for everyone who has heard of bitcoin and still has money to invest, the expected value is now less than 245 $/BTC.  They obviously think that the chances for Buterin's scenario are less than 1% (even if they don't make that estimation explicilt or conscious).

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[YourMother]

Mass adoption is coming!!!


Maybe after another 6 years we will see 4.6%
 
ROFL!

[jeffhuys]

There's not much going on at the moment? I'm looking at the charts but it seems awfully silent. Alarms ftw!  

[empowering]

Even at replacing 1% of Gold, it'd be 70bn marketcap. And chances of that are severely over 5%. Actually it's a pretty good bet that it'll happen, but people in countries with hard currencies cannot really understand why that will be.

For example, having the 'security' of USD or EUR (=being American or European), you tend to see BTC as irrelevant, while if your national currency is junk, you value BTC just as you would value hard-to-find-assets like gold and hard currencies. It's a concept that is very elusive to western minds / developed countries.

Even the apparent "stability" and boredom that makes traders cringe for the 250$ mark, may be a +20% gain for someone living in a country where their national currency is on a declining curve during the last months.

Except that, to someone who has no ideological motivations and merely looks at the price charts, BTC looks worse than the Argentinean peso or Russian rubles.  No one will consider BTC an option to escape inflation until those crazy sudden swings stop and the price remains stable for a year.

As for replacing gold: with a 30% loss over the last few years, gold does not look like the solid refuge that it once was.  Still, it has a fairly high rock-bottom price, maybe 100-200 $/ounce, due to its assured continuing demand for jewelry and industrial use, as well as his historical glamour.  So, the price of gold is unlikely to drop by another 50% in the next few years, and any further drop will be gradual enough for individuals to take their money out before losing too much. 

In contrast, bitcoin does not have such floor.  Even the 5 $/BTC estimated for e-payment usage depends on it continuing to to be the main cryptocurrency for that use, which is not at all certain. Bircoin price drops have been sudden and totally unpredictable, so investors would probably have to bear higher losses when trying to run away from them.

Anyway, for everyone who has heard of bitcoin and still has money to invest, the expected value is now less than 245 $/BTC.  They obviously think that the chances for Buterin's scenario are less than 1% (even if they don't make that estimation explicilt or conscious).

Everything in the world will always stay exactly as it is now....

[empowering]

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!???