Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

This is becoming laughable.

And I mean by laughable, in this way:

[Feri22]

wtv i'm getting a BJ tonight.

Did you get back to your wife?

Who needs a wife for a BJ?  
It's a free market out there!

yeah right, i just wanted.to know if they got back together cause i remember Adam writing about it, that he had some problems because of cosa nostra, i mean BTC  

[coins101]

Stand back, we are going green. Back up to $219 

[macsga]

The latest additions to hall of fame TROLL A.K.A.: The List  is once more updated. Enjoy and if you care, please share with friends and family.

 

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Imma horse's ass!

Dude. Don't be so hard on yourself.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[stackoverflow]

bitstamp in full bear mode this afternoon 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

The latest additions to hall of fame TROLL A.K.A.: The List  is once more updated. Enjoy and if you care, please share with friends and family.

 

You made legendary

[EuroTrash]

If we had no speculation, only demand for e-payments, the price would follow the equation P = V * T / N, where P is the price ($/BTC), V is the volume of e-payments ($/day), T is the mean time between successive payments with the same coin (days), and N is the number of currency units in circulation (BTC).  

Assuming N = 14 million, guessing T = 14 days, and V = 5 million $/day, gives P = 5.00 $/BTC only.  

The guess T = 14 days assumes that most coins that someone receives in payment for something, or buys to spend, are sold or used to pay for things at various times within one month.   (BitPay sells all the coins that they receive within a day or two, for example.)

The guess V = 5 million $/day is based on various bits of evidence that indicate that BitPay has been handling about 1 million $/day of payments over the last year.   Since they are believed to be the largest bitcoin payment processor by volume, a factor of 5 seems to be a fair guess for the total volume of e-payments.  This estimate includes other processors and raw bitcoin payments, but excludes illegal trade, since that is being curtailed and cannot be relied upon as a sustainer of the price.  (Anyway, it seems unlikely to be more than 1 million $/day).

It is not correct to use for V the total USD transaction volume extracted from the blockchain, because most of the latter (probably more than 90%) is movement of coins between wallets that belong to the same person, or that is not payment for goods or services -- such as tumbling, hot/cold wallet flow, deposits and withdrawals at exchanges and similar sites, gambling, etc.

Clearly, the current price (~220 $/BT) is still largely sustained by speculation and speculative holding.

I like the Money Velocity Theory approach because I can understand it. But I think your estimates are misleading.

IMO:

N = number of coins that are being actively exchanged because they are the only ones that can be part of a velocity equation. At best I'd say N = 3 millions. The rest is hoarded or lost.
T = 14 days looks like reasonable to me, considering the average bitcoiner is likely to do a couple of purchases in a month.
V = use estimated onchain USD transaction volume from blockchain.info = above 40 million USD.

That would give a BTC valuation above 40 * 14 / 3 = 187 USD, which is in line with what I expect.

[paul2000]

P.S.
===
I HODL

Is this Slenderman?

[samsonn25]

Next support at $210

The bright side is the EMA is $250

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[inca]

Buy !

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Buy !

Man! I've been buying all year. I'm broke and I'm tired.

Good luck

[SimonTower]

Don't be afraid.The price reached ~30$ at spring of 2011 and felt down to 2$ ~november, 2011.
We broke the 30$ again March, 2013, almost 2 year after the last spike.

https://blockchain.info/charts/market-price?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=1&address=

edit: The bottom(2$) at the last big downtrend was around 12 months before the halving. We will reach the next bottom at august in this year.

[TankHankerous]

I feel bad for the Winkelvosses

[Nas]

I feel bad for the Winkelvosses

Why? They got billions of dollars.

[JorgeStolfi]

If we had no speculation, only demand for e-payments, the price would [ be ]  P = 5.00 $/BTC only.  

The guess T = 14 days assumes that most coins that someone receives in payment for something, or buys to spend, are sold or used to pay for things at various times within one month.   (BitPay sells all the coins that they receive within a day or two, for example.)

The guess V = 5 million $/day is based on various bits of evidence that indicate that BitPay has been handling about 1 million $/day of payments over the last year.   Since they are believed to be the largest bitcoin payment processor by volume, a factor of 5 seems to be a fair guess for the total volume of e-payments.  This estimate includes other processors and raw bitcoin payments, but excludes illegal trade, since that is being curtailed and cannot be relied upon as a sustainer of the price.  (Anyway, it seems unlikely to be more than 1 million $/day).

It is not correct to use for V the total USD transaction volume extracted from the blockchain, because most of the latter (probably more than 90%) is movement of coins between wallets that belong to the same person, or that is not payment for goods or services -- such as tumbling, hot/cold wallet flow, deposits and withdrawals at exchanges and similar sites, gambling, etc.

Clearly, the current price (~220 $/BT) is still largely sustained by speculation and speculative holding.

I like the Money Velocity Theory approach because I can understand it. But I think your estimates are misleading.

IMO:

N = number of coins that are being actively exchanged because they are the only ones that can be part of a velocity equation. At best I'd say N = 3 millions. The rest is hoarded or lost.
T = 14 days looks like reasonable to me, considering the average bitcoiner is likely to do a couple of purchases in a month.
V = use estimated onchain USD transaction volume from blockchain.info = above 40 million USD.

That would give a BTC valuation above 40 * 14 / 3 = 187 USD, which is in line with what I expect.

Note that I was estimating what the price would be if there was no speculation, and therefore no hoarding; i.e. all 14 million coins in circulation, held only for as long as needed to spend all that is earned (or save it by buying some other store-of-value asset, such as gold, real estate, treasury or loan bonds, etc..)

As I noted above, the "estimated USD transaction volume" from blockchain.info is known to be much higher than the volume of e-payments.  (At some point, PrimeDice betting alone was 40% of the blockchain traffic, in some metric).  We do not know the real number, unfortunately.   The little evidence I have seen tells me that it is probably on the order of 5 M$/day.

You cannot trust the number 187 $/BTC because it depends on the amount of holding, i.e. speculation -- and speculation is unpredictable.

[JorgeStolfi]

Brawker (competitor to Purse.io) closes for lack of customers:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/32lx9j/brawker_shuts_down_because_growth_rate_did_not/

We are sorry to inform you that we will not be continuing the service any longer. We have tried to keep Brawker running for as long as possible, and put a lot of time and effort into it.  However, our growth rate did not meet our expectations, and the service does not scale as we would have expected to. [ ... ]

[2GOOD]

P.S.
===
I HODL

Is this Slenderman?

haha nice1
This is from The Million Dollar Hotel, maybe one day they can change the name to One Bitcoin Hotel

on topic: bottom it is