Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[tarmi]

260?

with this kind of low volume action in 220 range? mmm, no.

[phoenix1]

BEWARE: DanV is very good with downtrend predictions/bottoms/lows etc., but he's not good with predictions about UP. This is typical attribute about Elliott's waves analysis that is easier to use EW to dips than ups. I don't know if this is unique feature for EW and Btc but I can see this from long time. Maybe it's just because analysis in general is easier in downtrend than in uptrend, who knows.

Close - I think it's more a trend vs countertrend thing. We have been in a bear market for a long time, so the major corrections (to the trend) have been to the upside, and the impulsive moves to the downside. Corrective, counter-trend moves are generally more complex and difficult to count than impulsive moves that go with the underlying trend. That may explain some of his 'misses'.

[ensurance982]

I pretty much share the same short-term view.

Here's DanV's newest projection.

<snip>

  So effectively the guy that predicted Bitcoin's spiralling down to, what, $50 has now predicted a turnaround and bounce-off of about current levels? Interesting turn of events.

No. If you understand what he has written on TV, and the chart labelling, he is opening up to the possibility that we are still in a corrective move from the $166 low. See his green line to $360, labelled [C] - that would mark the end of the correction (from $166) and resumption of the downtrend to new lows at $xx(x?). IDK if this significantly alters his downside target, but it would certainly drag this bear market out several months longer than his previous count, which had us starting the move to new lows from $300 a month ago. Pick your poison ...

EW counts evolve with price action. To him this current action does not fit well with his previously published chart, so he is publishing a new one, as any sensible analyst would do.
Remember - the best EW analysts have multiple counts running in parallel at any one time. It is only by excluding those that are invalidated and focussing on those with the higher probabilities (according to EW rules) that they stay on track. But they will keep an eye on alt-counts in order to switch if the primary count is invalidated/looks less probable.


Here is the link to the chart with his commentary:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/EUytkasj-BTCUSD-FURTHER-SHORT-TERM-WEAKNESS-IN-STORE-WITH-OF-TARGET-210/

Ah, I see... I don't really buy the possibility to go up to $360 only to resume our long-term downtrend from there. I think basically every single resistance line since the 2014 downtrend started will have been broken then and bull mode will kick in - big time.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[phoenix1]

<DanV stuff>

Ah, I see... I don't really buy the possibility to go up to $360 only to resume our long-term downtrend from there. I think basically every single resistance line since the 2014 downtrend started will have been broken then and bull mode will kick in - big time.

Then we get the crayons out and draw some new ones 

[ensurance982]

<DanV stuff>

Ah, I see... I don't really buy the possibility to go up to $360 only to resume our long-term downtrend from there. I think basically every single resistance line since the 2014 downtrend started will have been broken then and bull mode will kick in - big time.

Then we get the crayons out and draw some new ones 

Well let's hope that the new lines point upwards again. I like to see green candles again, for a change - without having to switch to USD/BTC...

[Tzupy]

I pretty much share the same short-term view.

Here's DanV's newest projection.

<snip>

  So effectively the guy that predicted Bitcoin's spiralling down to, what, $50 has now predicted a turnaround and bounce-off of about current levels? Interesting turn of events.

No. If you understand what he has written on TV, and the chart labelling, he is opening up to the possibility that we are still in a corrective move from the $166 low. See his green line to $360, labelled [C] - that would mark the end of the correction (from $166) and resumption of the downtrend to new lows at $xx(x?). IDK if this significantly alters his downside target, but it would certainly drag this bear market out several months longer than his previous count, which had us starting the move to new lows from $300 a month ago. Pick your poison ...

EW counts evolve with price action. To him this current action does not fit well with his previously published chart, so he is publishing a new one, as any sensible analyst would do.
Remember - the best EW analysts have multiple counts running in parallel at any one time. It is only by excluding those that are invalidated and focussing on those with the higher probabilities (according to EW rules) that they stay on track. But they will keep an eye on alt-counts in order to switch if the primary count is invalidated/looks less probable.


Here is the link to the chart with his commentary:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/EUytkasj-BTCUSD-FURTHER-SHORT-TERM-WEAKNESS-IN-STORE-WITH-OF-TARGET-210/

I doubt that the breaking down would stop at 210$. Once 4h and 6h MACD divergence would turn negative, IMO large dumps would break the key 210$ support level.
So if the market will go up to 300+, it has to start pumping soon, without any major drops before.

[ensurance982]

I pretty much share the same short-term view.

Here's DanV's newest projection.

<snip>

  So effectively the guy that predicted Bitcoin's spiralling down to, what, $50 has now predicted a turnaround and bounce-off of about current levels? Interesting turn of events.

No. If you understand what he has written on TV, and the chart labelling, he is opening up to the possibility that we are still in a corrective move from the $166 low. See his green line to $360, labelled [C] - that would mark the end of the correction (from $166) and resumption of the downtrend to new lows at $xx(x?). IDK if this significantly alters his downside target, but it would certainly drag this bear market out several months longer than his previous count, which had us starting the move to new lows from $300 a month ago. Pick your poison ...

EW counts evolve with price action. To him this current action does not fit well with his previously published chart, so he is publishing a new one, as any sensible analyst would do.
Remember - the best EW analysts have multiple counts running in parallel at any one time. It is only by excluding those that are invalidated and focussing on those with the higher probabilities (according to EW rules) that they stay on track. But they will keep an eye on alt-counts in order to switch if the primary count is invalidated/looks less probable.


Here is the link to the chart with his commentary:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/EUytkasj-BTCUSD-FURTHER-SHORT-TERM-WEAKNESS-IN-STORE-WITH-OF-TARGET-210/

I doubt that the breaking down would stop at 210$. Once 4h and 6h MACD divergence would turn negative, IMO large dumps would break the key 210$ support level.
So if the market will go up to 300+, it has to start pumping soon, without any major drops before.

Yeah I don't think there's a lot of support there, either, but I would've expected the market do break down below $220 far worse than it did, considering the price was crashing down from over $240!

[gizmoh]

Gox Btc were distributed long time ago = BULLISH

http://www.coindesk.com/most-mt-gox-bitcoins-were-gone-by-may-2013-report-claims/

[ensurance982]

Gox Btc were distributed long time ago = BULLISH

http://www.coindesk.com/most-mt-gox-bitcoins-were-gone-by-may-2013-report-claims/

Then again, it was probably really the Willy bot buying all those coins and thus creating an inflated price. It's difficult to pinpoint the exact cause of the rising price and the cause of the coins going missing, unless maybe our Frappuccino-loving friend releases more information he may have.

[Fatman3001]

I just read the Coindesk article about 21. Not convinced. I don't think the 21 guy knows what he's talking about. It might fall flat on its face.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[thebitcoinquiz.com]

I was really hoping the price to increase by 5-10$ when I wake up. But it tumbled down by 1$(almost negligible), but still satisfied that its not gone down drastically.

Will it increase? Why?

[ensurance982]

I just read the Coindesk article about 21. Not convinced. I don't think the 21 guy knows what he's talking about. It might fall flat on its face.

So either thery're people with a lot of Fiat, willing to take a very big gamble or people who have a vision and dare to invest their money in those ideas.

[Fatman3001]

I just read the Coindesk article about 21. Not convinced. I don't think the 21 guy knows what he's talking about. It might fall flat on its face.

So either thery're people with a lot of Fiat, willing to take a very big gamble or people who have a vision and dare to invest their money in those ideas.

Or simply lose all their invstors money to something that won't work and further damage Bitcoins poor reputation.

[empowering]

I just read the Coindesk article about 21. Not convinced. I don't think the 21 guy knows what he's talking about. It might fall flat on its face.

Specifically what is it that makes you think he does not know what he is talking about? (just out of interest)

(also.... what do you see as Bitcoins poor reputation)

[esse83]

On wednesday the last creditor meeting for MtGox will be held, guess we will get an idea about when BTC200,000 will hit the markets (rumour is september). Who dares to be a bull in times like these?

[Wings1987]

Large volume of asks moved from 226 and 228 to 230 and 232.(finex)  Not a huge move up but there is some room to move without much resistance if the market is ready.

[Fatman3001]

I just read the Coindesk article about 21. Not convinced. I don't think the 21 guy knows what he's talking about. It might fall flat on its face.

Specifically what is it that makes you think he does not know what he is talking about? (just out of interest)

(also.... what do you see as Bitcoins poor reputation)

1. He seems to confuse miners with nodes and compares sha256 asics to conventional servers. He also claims that the 10min block time can easily be changed seemingly without understanding the implications of that. Then he alludes to a closed loop system with vendors without any specifics, and if the previous points are not simply due to intentional over simplification or provocation I fear that they might hit a snag that they can't get past.
 
2. Exchange scandals, illicit activities, scams, theft, worst investment of the year awards.


Edit: 2. And right wing extremist libertarian loons.

[hdbuck]

I just read the Coindesk article about 21. Not convinced. I don't think the 21 guy knows what he's talking about. It might fall flat on its face.

Specifically what is it that makes you think he does not know what he is talking about? (just out of interest)

(also.... what do you see as Bitcoins poor reputation)

hem, Coindesk?