Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Fatman3001]

Come to think of it, If you've bought BTC in 2015 chances are that you haven't lost much money. Bullish!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Come to think of it, If you've bought BTC in 2015 chances are that you haven't lost much money. Bullish!

It makes good sense to buy now, if you believe in the future of bitcoin that is. Even if you don't believe we'll 'go to tge moon' you could buy in now at 225 & double your money within a year or two pretty easily.
You won't get a bank giving you interest like that.
Bitcoin is a pretty sound investment right now if you ask me.
I'm HODLING looking for far bigger returns but buying in now & selling even at 400 (which I expect by the end of 2015) gives you a great profit.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[mudiko]

What says the graphs about the future of btc?

[Norway]

What says the graphs about the future of btc?

The graphs are just recordings of old prices. They tell you about the past, not the future. 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[cyclotronmajesty]

FWIW I'm seriously thinking to cut my loose at $200. I want to be ready for $1xx.

This rift in the core developer camp is really starting to eat at me. I honestly don't know on what side of the debate I fall. I like Gavin, but tell me we're not becoming Ripple. Someone please tell me that.

Wasn't there some talk about an 8MB compromise? For regular users there is no "side" to take. If a hard fork lasts for more than a few hours we are really going to see both double and single digits. But they can't be that stupid.

Yes there is a side to take. If BTC can be hard-forked, how can it be totally trusted as a Store of Value? Currency, in and out, sure, no problem. But if someone has the power to hard fork, we are back to centralisation again, which is the antithesis of BTC. Does not matter if it is put out there as 2 options for people to choose between. Fact remains, there is the power to change the parameters, push out a fork, and the value of your savings is dependent upon what the majority choose. Does not sound like the trustless currency that I thought BTC was.

That seems a good point. I think if it gets forked, and people have to choose a winner. It will loose trust and value, because now that can be attempted again and you may pick the wrong blockchain, and that could leave you vulnerable. Sounds like a great way to bet people to sell bitcoin though. I'd probably not want to hold during a fork.

[shmadz]

It is not about HD space, it is about "what?? you can halt and fork the whole thing while i am sleeping and next morning am on the worthless losing fork? WTF!".

After the hard fork, you will automatiall have the same amount of bitcoins in both chains.  Hopefully a consensus would have been reached before that time so one of the clones will be worthles and unusable for lack of miners, and "bitcoin" will be the other clone.  In the unlikely chance that both versions survive, if you have the privatekeys you will be able to move or sell each clone independently by using the proper version of the software.

What's to prevent miners from merge-mining both "clones" ?

[macsga]

It is not about HD space, it is about "what?? you can halt and fork the whole thing while i am sleeping and next morning am on the worthless losing fork? WTF!".

After the hard fork, you will automatiall have the same amount of bitcoins in both chains.  Hopefully a consensus would have been reached before that time so one of the clones will be worthles and unusable for lack of miners, and "bitcoin" will be the other clone.  In the unlikely chance that both versions survive, if you have the privatekeys you will be able to move or sell each clone independently by using the proper version of the software.

What's to prevent miners from merge-mining both "clones" ?

I don't think it's THAT significant -or dramatic for that matter- to have a hard fork on BTC. Nor it's price related. It's already happened once and nothing happened. I foresee that if this go through (doubt it, but, let's say it will) the two forks up to a certain point will be totally compatible. That means people will have to choose if they will follow the new fork that Gavin proposes AFTER it's proven a successor to the previous one.

The opposite might happen as well though, so there's a chance the new fork will become a minority and its transactions will be rendered unusable by the ''most commonly used'' one. No drama, natural choice. The stronger survives.

[gentlemand]

I don't think it's THAT significant -or dramatic for that matter- to have a hard fork on BTC. Nor it's price related. It's already happened once and nothing happened. I foresee that if this go through (doubt it, but, let's say it will) the two forks up to a certain point will be totally compatible. That means people will have to choose if they will follow the new fork that Gavin proposes AFTER it's proven a successor to the previous one.

The opposite might happen as well though, so there's a chance the new fork will become a minority and its transactions will be rendered unusable by the ''most commonly used'' one. No drama, natural choice. The stronger survives.

The 2013 fork was a glitch that everyone was incentivised to deal with. The future fork is something of a different beast at present. Maybe by the time it comes around it'll have settled down but the circumstances are rather different. Right now it's for a theoretical future case scenario rather than an immediate technical problem.

[Fatman3001]

It is not about HD space, it is about "what?? you can halt and fork the whole thing while i am sleeping and next morning am on the worthless losing fork? WTF!".

After the hard fork, you will automatiall have the same amount of bitcoins in both chains.  Hopefully a consensus would have been reached before that time so one of the clones will be worthles and unusable for lack of miners, and "bitcoin" will be the other clone.  In the unlikely chance that both versions survive, if you have the privatekeys you will be able to move or sell each clone independently by using the proper version of the software.

What's to prevent miners from merge-mining both "clones" ?

One blockchain will have to decide to merge mine with the other. That blockchain would automatically be considered the loser shitcoin bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[coinableS]

What says the graphs about the future of btc?

The graphs are just recordings of old prices. They tell you about the past, not the future. 

Haha, yea you are right. It does looks like someone is just looping the prices in front of us like Keanu Reeves did to Dustin Hoffman with the bus security camera in Speed. I turn on the computer each morning and it's all the same thing. We had the bitlicense thingy yesterday which was different but the price didn't care. Are volatile days of bitcoin over? When was the last time we saw a 20% move in a day? It's been a while.

[Norway]

What says the graphs about the future of btc?

The graphs are just recordings of old prices. They tell you about the past, not the future.  

Haha, yea you are right. It does looks like someone is just looping the prices in front of us like Keanu Reeves did to Dustin Hoffman with the bus security camera in Speed. I turn on the computer each morning and it's all the same thing. We had the bitlicense thingy yesterday which was different but the price didn't care. Are volatile days of bitcoin over? When was the last time we saw a 20% move in a day? It's been a while.

He he, I agree. It feels like you're trapped in "Groundhog Day". But cold, hard math tells us that more popularity/adoption would increase the price extremely over time. And it will be a bumpy ride  

[Chainsaw]

What says the graphs about the future of btc?

The graphs are just recordings of old prices. They tell you about the past, not the future. 

Haha, yea you are right. It does looks like someone is just looping the prices in front of us like Keanu Reeves did to Dustin Hoffman with the bus security camera in Speed. I turn on the computer each morning and it's all the same thing. We had the bitlicense thingy yesterday which was different but the price didn't care. Are volatile days of bitcoin over? When was the last time we saw a 20% move in a day? It's been a while.

One of the most surreal moments in my bitcoin experience was when Gox's order book started displaying a loop of the last 10-15 minutes of trades. Then the 'bug' would clear, and all the trades on the order book would resolve. The price might have showed $250 and the next instant you filled for $220 or $300.

The same cycle happened two or three times in one night.  It was even more surreal when you started including in your analysis the possibility of being in a time loop.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

What's to prevent miners from merge-mining both "clones" ?

I believe that it is possible to merge-mine two coins only of one of them has the protocol tweaked to allow it.  Isn't that so? 

If that is the case, surely the new bitcoin will not want to allow merge-mining, and the old bitcoin obviously will not.

[Tzupy]

...
Haha, yea you are right. It does looks like someone is just looping the prices in front of us like Keanu Reeves did to Dustin Hoffman with the bus security camera in Speed. I turn on the computer each morning and it's all the same thing. We had the bitlicense thingy yesterday which was different but the price didn't care. Are volatile days of bitcoin over? When was the last time we saw a 20% move in a day? It's been a while.

Dennis Hopper != Dustin Hoffman

If the fork happens and large holders will decide to mitigate risks, they could dump a lot of coins in exchange for fiat IOU, only to buy back later, at much lower prices.

[adamstgBit]

...
Haha, yea you are right. It does looks like someone is just looping the prices in front of us like Keanu Reeves did to Dustin Hoffman with the bus security camera in Speed. I turn on the computer each morning and it's all the same thing. We had the bitlicense thingy yesterday which was different but the price didn't care. Are volatile days of bitcoin over? When was the last time we saw a 20% move in a day? It's been a while.

Dennis Hopper != Dustin Hoffman

If the fork happens and large holders will decide to mitigate risks, they could dump a lot of coins in exchange for fiat IOU, only to buy back later, at much lower prices.

I would imagine some risk mitigation has already happened, pretty sure the latest drop has something to do with this up and coming fork.

idk but if people dump and then buy back after the storm passes, I would see the market not allow them to buy back in "much lower", a little higher seems more fair... say it plunges 350 -> 225 during the first day of the update when shit appears to be hitting the fan, as the situation gets better market should go back to 350 and then everyone realizes they actually Want to be Invested in bitcoin and buy back in...

could be SR crash 2.0

[phoenix1]

BFX offer side looking much thinner than it has done recently... rally time ??