Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[r0ach]

there won't be any results, just usual post auction slow dump.  

Nobody is buying coins at an auction when they usually have to pay a premium in order to dump them right after.  Only way this is happening is if nobody bids except like one guy, but that's clearly not the case.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[marcus_of_augustus]

there won't be any results, just usual post auction slow dump. 

https://twitter.com/panteracapital/status/652560521770614784

tarmi ... you can buy them here to dump

[JorgeStolfi]

The auction does tend to move the price up and down due mainly to uncertainty.
Fortunately though, this is the last one. That should clear the way afterwards for an upward direction.

The announcement of the first USMS SR auction (2014-06-27; won by Tim Draper) apparently caused a drop in the price on 2015-06-11, from ~650 to ~590, that was reversed on 2014-06-30 when the result was revealed.

The second auction (2014-12-04; won by a SecondMarket syndicate and a small bid by Tim Draper) had no discernible effect on price, that remained pretty stable at ~375 for about a week before and a week after it.

Abut a week before before the third auction (2015-03-05; won by itBit), the price rose from ~240 to ~280, but probably for other causes.  It remained stable through the auction, and had another small rise a few days later.   

So it would seem that, after the first one, the market got used to the USMS auctions and ignores them (or "prices them in" well in advance).

This is the last USMS SR auction, but two more have been announced: the auction of ~24'500 BTC by the Australian government, and the auction or return of ~200'000 BTC by the MtGOX trustee, maybe by the end of the year.

[muyuu]

The auction does tend to move the price up and down due mainly to uncertainty.
Fortunately though, this is the last one. That should clear the way afterwards for an upward direction.

The announcement of the first USMS SR auction (2014-06-27; won by Tim Draper) apparently caused a drop in the price on 2015-06-11, from ~650 to ~590, that was reversed on 2014-06-30 when the result was revealed.

The second auction (2014-12-04; won by a SecondMarket syndicate and a small bid by Tim Draper) had no discernible effect on price, that remained pretty stable at ~375 for about a week before and a week after it.

Abut a week before before the third auction (2015-03-05; won by itBit), the price rose from ~240 to ~280, but probably for other causes.  It remained stable through the auction, and had another small rise a few days later.   

So it would seem that, after the first one, the market got used to the USMS auctions and ignores them (or "prices them in" well in advance).

This is the last USMS SR auction, but two more have been announced: the auction of ~24'500 BTC by the Australian government, and the auction or return of ~200'000 BTC by the MtGOX trustee, maybe by the end of the year.

When price drops it's "apparently because of the auction" and when it rises, it's "probably for other causes".

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[tarmi]

tarmi ... you can buy them here to dump

no, I have my sources. like miners. why would I buy them on an auction for a premium, after a 50 $ rise?

miners require less paperwork, less government involvement, less taxes, less fees to panthera etc. no incentive to buy them on auction. I would buy them only if the price is right. like 100 $. and then immediately dump them, ofc.

[tarmi]

I like how longs are declining and shorts rising but the price still goes up  

yeap, we are going for the double top at full speed.

[JorgeStolfi]

The announcement of the first USMS SR auction (2014-06-27; won by Tim Draper) apparently caused a drop in the price on 2015-06-11, from ~650 to ~590, that was reversed on 2014-06-30 when the result was revealed.

Abut a week before before the third auction (2015-03-05; won by itBit), the price rose from ~240 to ~280, but probably for other causes.  It remained stable through the auction, and had another small rise a few days later.

When price drops it's "apparently because of the auction" and when it rises, it's "probably for other causes".

That is from my recollection of the forum discussions at the time.  When the first auction was announced, people were quite worried.  The dates of the drop and recovery also matched the announcement and the revelation of the outcome, and there was no other plausible explanation for them.

When the third auction was announced, the price was halfway through a general rising trend from ~220, and that trend apparently just went on undisturbed.  Also there was much less discussion on the forums about that auction than about the previous two.

[JayJuanGee]

i'd love to see my stash worth more but realistically there are bitcoin auction in Nov, then Dec is holiday season.  i dont really think we will break 300 soon.

btw i hope i was wrong.

I don't think auctions are a factor any more. And people make too many excuses for the time of year. Post Christmas it's 'everyone's broke, wait till spring.' Come spring 'It's the summer soon. Sell in May and go away. Maybe we'll see something in October/November'. Now 'it's Christmas soon. No one's spending.'

Going on that we have a 3-4 day window in late September where there are actually any people attending the Bitcoin market.

That's what I was trying to say, but you said it much better....

 

In other words, let the CCMF continue.

[hendra147]

welcome back $270
okey come on join party

buy bitcoin now and hold it , we will hit $300 at end of this month 

[JayJuanGee]

The auction does tend to move the price up and down due mainly to uncertainty.
Fortunately though, this is the last one. That should clear the way afterwards for an upward direction.

The announcement of the first USMS SR auction (2014-06-27; won by Tim Draper) apparently caused a drop in the price on 2015-06-11, from ~650 to ~590, that was reversed on 2014-06-30 when the result was revealed.

The second auction (2014-12-04; won by a SecondMarket syndicate and a small bid by Tim Draper) had no discernible effect on price, that remained pretty stable at ~375 for about a week before and a week after it.

Abut a week before before the third auction (2015-03-05; won by itBit), the price rose from ~240 to ~280, but probably for other causes.  It remained stable through the auction, and had another small rise a few days later.   

So it would seem that, after the first one, the market got used to the USMS auctions and ignores them (or "prices them in" well in advance).

This is the last USMS SR auction, but two more have been announced: the auction of ~24'500 BTC by the Australian government, and the auction or return of ~200'000 BTC by the MtGOX trustee, maybe by the end of the year.

Jorge:  Actually, I tend to like to bash you for providing crappy information...

The above post is an exception, and I find it a very informative summary of the auction situation.  Thanks for that contribution.

[Feri22]

I like how longs are declining and shorts rising but the price still goes up  

yeap, we are going for the double top at full speed.

I hope this is the start of midterm reversal and your "double top" will be slaughtered fast so people like you will learn there is no place for arrogance in btc market

[ssmc2]

I like how longs are declining and shorts rising but the price still goes up  

yeap, we are going for the double top at full speed.

I hope this is the start of midterm reversal and your "double top" will be slaughtered fast so people like you will learn there is no place for arrogance in btc market

Word

[Wolf Rainer]

welcome back $270
okey come on join party

buy bitcoin now and hold it , we will hit $300 at end of this month 

I highly doubt it. The bears are waiting for shorting hard.

[tarmi]

the only arrogance that I am witnessing here day after day is coming from the bulls who are calling, again, for the reversal in a long bear market and with no fundamentals for it.

despair and the bottom are not yet in, but we are getting closer.

[peonminer]

i think we stuck at 265-270 until christmas 

What's your basis for that statement, and what exchange are you using?

Seems to be a kind of FUD-ish assertion without much if any foundation to justify it.

i'd love to see my stash worth more but realistically there are bitcoin auction in Nov, then Dec is holiday season.  i dont really think we will break 300 soon.

btw i hope i was wrong.

The Chinese don't celebrate Christmas N00B

[Dilla]

the only arrogance that I am witnessing here day after day is coming from the bulls who are calling, again, for the reversal in a long bear market and with no fundamentals for it.

despair and the bottom are not yet in, but we are getting closer.

We've broken the long term trend line with high volume and have stayed above it. Fundamentals.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[Fatman3001]

the only arrogance that I am witnessing here day after day is coming from the bulls who are calling, again, for the reversal in a long bear market and with no fundamentals for it.

Baaaaaahhhh...

Don't know what you mean.

Baaaaaahhhhhh.....