Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

As JM Keynes said, "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

The words of a gambler gone broke.

from wikipedia:

Keynes was ultimately a successful investor, building up a private fortune. His assets were nearly wiped out following the Wall Street Crash of 1929, which he did not foresee, but he soon recouped. At Keynes's death, in 1946, his net worth stood just short of £500,000 – equivalent to about £11 million ($16.5 million) in 2009. The sum had been amassed despite lavish support for various good causes and his personal ethic which made him reluctant to sell on a falling market in cases where he saw such behaviour as likely to deepen a slump.[153]

That's broke? Keynes was a seriously flawed economist, but give credit where credit is due.

[Richy_T]

That binary view holds only if payout is predetermined, not managed/variable (as is the case with fiat currencies/economies). A 'ponzi' like that stays in a state of constant flux, so it's not even clear what's meant by 'collapse.' People get poorer? Die? World implodes?

The BRICs countries get fed up of getting screwed by the fed and create their own currency, for example.

[billyjoeallen]

all you have to do to increase pig production is ...breed more sows, instead of butchering them.
And those sows will birth 5 sows, and those five will birth 25, 125, etc., etc.

Come on. You can't even imagine a scenario where demand outstrips potential supply? What if aliens demanded we give them a huge and ever increasing number of pigs to feed their exponentially growing space empire?
A ridiculously high limit is still a limit.

[makeacake]

That binary view holds only if payout is predetermined, not managed/variable (as is the case with fiat currencies/economies). A 'ponzi' like that stays in a state of constant flux, so it's not even clear what's meant by 'collapse.' People get poorer? Die? World implodes?

The BRICs countries get fed up of getting screwed by the fed and create their own currency, for example.

They already did. Dollar users unaffected

[GGALINff]

this pig analogy is hogwash

[Richy_T]

That's broke? Keynes was a seriously flawed economist, but give credit where credit is due.

I didn't say he stayed broke.

[billyjoeallen]

That binary view holds only if payout is predetermined, not managed/variable (as is the case with fiat currencies/economies). A 'ponzi' like that stays in a state of constant flux, so it's not even clear what's meant by 'collapse.' People get poorer? Die? World implodes?

The BRICs countries get fed up of getting screwed by the fed and create their own currency, for example.

Possible but unlikely. If they were that smart, they wouldn't be playing catch-up. Or more accurately, if their rulers were more honest, which they clearly aren't. Cartels don't last, because any profit above the free market level is just added incentive for individual cartel members to defect.  How has OPEC kept oil prices high?  oh, that's right, they haven't.

It's just too tempting for rulers to steal from subjects via inflation.

real world example: The Euro.  If Europe can't come up with a currency to successfully compete with the dollar, what makes you think third world kleptocracies will?

[AlexGR]

So what you're telling me is "it's not happening, but that's actually a good thing, because it could"?

You are confusing the "it's happening on a trivial scale" with "it's happening on a non-trivial scale".

Messaging software, like ICQ, back in 1996 had trivial use. A few hundred thousand people were using it. A "skeptic" could say back then 'oh, so if it's not used by the whole population it must be a failure".

....Or they could be more reasonable and say "look, this is something new, most people don't know about it, but as they do and they learn what it does and how it can make their communication better, they will start to adopt it and it's just a matter of time before the user base expands significantly".

Today messaging software of all types is used by billions of people. It has attained large scale adoption.

Right now, bitcoin is treated as a purely speculative commodity, think glorified poker chips.

It's up to each individual investor to understand why they are holding it and whether it has any potential or not. But if it had already realized its potential we wouldn't be here price-wise. Nor there would be any debate on scaling, etc.

You don't quite get what gives gold its value, and since you also don't get what gives bitcoin its value, you assume that the two are interchangeable, am I right?

It is safe to assume 99.999%+ of the people do not know what gives gold its value (and I don't mean the obvious market demand = price). They think they do, but they don't. However to really understand the value of gold you must also understand the nature of the reality we are in. And that's something that is more scientific, esoteric - even metaphysical.

[makeacake]

all you have to do to increase pig production is ...breed more sows, instead of butchering them.
And those sows will birth 5 sows, and those five will birth 25, 125, etc., etc.

Come on. You can't even imagine a scenario where demand outstrips potential supply? What if aliens demanded we give them a huge and ever increasing number of pigs to feed their exponentially growing space empire?
A ridiculously high limit is still a limit.

If the demand is high enough, pigs will be bred in penthouse bathtubs, planets will be colonized, made habitable, and turned into pig farms.
What I'm trying to say is there's no artificial scarcity, no hard limit of 21 million, as is the case with bitcoin and Beanie Babies.
As I said, scarcity, in this case, is simply a product of demand, as in "I can't make more money by breeding more pigs."

[Richy_T]

They already did. Dollar users unaffected

No, they have just made the first moves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS

[riils]

They already did. Dollar users unaffected

No, they have just made the first moves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS

BRICS is a joke.

[Richy_T]

Possible but unlikely. If they were that smart, they wouldn't be playing catch-up. Or more accurately, if their rulers were more honest, which they clearly aren't. Cartels don't last, because any profit above the free market level is just added incentive for individual cartel members to defect.  How has OPEC kept oil prices high?  oh, that's right, they haven't.

It's just too tempting for rulers to steal from subjects via inflation.

real world example: The Euro.  If Europe can't come up with a currency to successfully compete with the dollar, what makes you think third world kleptocracies will?

However, the whole world is being stolen from via inflation by the US as a result of the petrodollar. BRICs is already making moves. It remains to be seen how it plays out but none of the BRICs members are backward countries in the middle of a desert who you can invade on a whim and string up the leader as a warning to others.

You have a decent point on the Euro though. As far as I'm aware, there's been no big push for it to become a payment method for oil. Possibly the people at the top just have too many ties. Not so much with BRICs.

[Richy_T]

BRICS is a joke.

Perhaps. What it certainly is is an indicator of increasing dissatisfaction with the way the US is exploiting the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.

[Richy_T]

Well sure. "Each individual investor" decided that bitcoin is a speculative commodity, one which has lost 2/3rds of its value over the last 2 years. What's your point?

You know how we know you're a troll?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

all you have to do to increase pig production is ...breed more sows, instead of butchering them.
And those sows will birth 5 sows, and those five will birth 25, 125, etc., etc.

Come on. You can't even imagine a scenario where demand outstrips potential supply? What if aliens demanded we give them a huge and ever increasing number of pigs to feed their exponentially growing space empire?
A ridiculously high limit is still a limit.

If the demand is high enough, pigs will be bred in penthouse bathtubs, planets will be colonized, made habitable, and turned into pig farms.
What I'm trying to say is there's no artificial scarcity, no hard limit of 21 million, as is the case with bitcoin and Beanie Babies.
As I said, scarcity, in this case, is simply a product of demand, as in "I can't make more money by breeding more pigs."

Only if time is not a limiting factor. If a pig farmer Get's a fill-or-kill order for a million pigs and he has a month to fill it, and he has only two breeding pigs, then it doesn't matter how much the buyer is willing to pay.

[DieJohnny]

What magic is going on that allows the Reserve to deposit trillions into bank accounts but there is no inflation?

http://www.samizdata.net/2010/06/money-supply-th/

WTF!!!

So to summarize... so the ponzi started to collapse, banks couldn't make payments on their ponzi promises, so the ponzi regulator the govt, and their operator in crime the fed essentially conjured up money to cover the bad debt promises made by banks, but paid the banks to not use that money.

So the banks can stay solvent on the books, but are incented to not spend the money that is in their reserves.....

So as long as that reserve grows and is not spent by the lords of banking our inflation stays under control.

This doesn't seem like it will end well....

[makeacake]

They already did. Dollar users unaffected

No, they have just made the first moves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS

Brazil has real; Russia has ruble; India has rupee; China has yuan; South Africa has Ayn Rand.

Are you suggesting those are all USD?

[makeacake]

all you have to do to increase pig production is ...breed more sows, instead of butchering them.
And those sows will birth 5 sows, and those five will birth 25, 125, etc., etc.

Come on. You can't even imagine a scenario where demand outstrips potential supply? What if aliens demanded we give them a huge and ever increasing number of pigs to feed their exponentially growing space empire?
A ridiculously high limit is still a limit.

If the demand is high enough, pigs will be bred in penthouse bathtubs, planets will be colonized, made habitable, and turned into pig farms.
What I'm trying to say is there's no artificial scarcity, no hard limit of 21 million, as is the case with bitcoin and Beanie Babies.
As I said, scarcity, in this case, is simply a product of demand, as in "I can't make more money by breeding more pigs."

Only if time is not a limiting factor. If a pig farmer Get's a fill-or-kill order for a million pigs and he has a month to fill it, and he has only two breeding pigs, then it doesn't matter how much the buyer is willing to pay.

Please refer to the red, bold text. ty.

[peonminer]