Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Tzupy]

We get this above 345 and it's ON

Well, this could be a bit of a problem... I plan to close 50% of my long just below that, to lock some profits, and others may think the same...

[noobtrader]

[Suspicious link removed]

yes i know i know... your altcoin monoro will be worth less soon with all this bullrun... im sorry for your loss

[ssmc2]

We get this above 345 and it's ON

Well, this could be a bit of a problem... I plan to close 50% of my long just below that, to lock some profits, and others may think the same...

To be honest I don't think it'll happen...right now. Seems we need to retest 300 or upper 2xx again before the next big move up. Either way, it will happen by the end of the year.

edit: probably the end of the month

[mb300sd]

Hey, look, it's perfectly symmetrical!

[spud21]

We get this above 345 and it's ON

Well, this could be a bit of a problem... I plan to close 50% of my long just below that, to lock some profits, and others may think the same...

To be honest I don't think it'll happen...right now. Seems we need to retest 300 or upper 2xx again before the next big move up. Either way, it will happen by the end of the year.

edit: probably the end of the month

The move up looks suspicious to me. I think it could crash back down again, but if it can stay above 330 for another day then it might be bullish. It's already wavering above and below 330 so traders aren't sure what it's going to do yet. I'm going to observe it and not make any panic decisions.

[ssmc2]

We get this above 345 and it's ON

Well, this could be a bit of a problem... I plan to close 50% of my long just below that, to lock some profits, and others may think the same...

To be honest I don't think it'll happen...right now. Seems we need to retest 300 or upper 2xx again before the next big move up. Either way, it will happen by the end of the year.

edit: probably the end of the month

The move up looks suspicious to me. I think it could crash back down again, but if it can stay above 330 for another day then it might be bullish. It's already wavering above and below 330 so traders aren't sure what it's going to do yet. I'm going to observe it and not make any panic decisions.

It looks awfully similar to the rise just before the drop on the 10th...

[noobtrader]

...
It looks awfully similar to the rise just before the drop on the 10th...

That's what they want you to think. Helps them accumulate...
This train is bound for glory, with or without you. Buy now or cry later.

CCMF!

omg

This is SPARTA !!!!

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Richy_T]

when the halving comes
hash-power won't drop so dramatically
Its not as tho the big farms aren't turning a profit...
and miners only get more efficient.
so there will most definitely be a lot of miners dropping out but closer to 10-25%, hashrate will drop out, and then start to climb again....

When the halving comes, after the next difficulty adjustment comes, there will be half the value of bitcoins being produced so about half of the mining power (the least efficient half) will be shut down. This is not a big deal.

The issue is the time between the halving and the difficulty change. Up until the halving, miners will be throwing in hash power to get as big a share of the rewards as possible. This cuts profitability. After the halving, it's suddenly a different game.

Let's say that, for example, it takes an average of $7 of electricity to generate $10 of bitcoins. That's a pretty good profit margin and is probably over-generous. Now the halving happens and suddenly everyone is spending $7 of electricity to generate $5 of bitcoins. The most sensible thing to do is switch off until the next difficulty change. The problem is, this is not just for one miner but any of them who are paying over $5 of electricity to generate a bitcoin.

Now, as I say, I think this won't come to pass for various reasons but those reasons are not very solid.

[Alley]

Half the value of bitcoins produced means half the miners will be shut down?  This is a false statement.

[Richy_T]

Half the value of bitcoins produced means half the miners will be shut down?  This is a false statement.

To a rough approximation, it is realistic. If you have a payroll of $500k and that gets you 10 workers of the appropriate skill level, if you cut that payroll to $250k, you can now get 5 workers of the appropriate skill level.

Of course, there is likely to be some increase in hashing efficiency over time but we are talking less than two weeks so I am ignoring that.

This is irrelevant to the point anyway.

[dropt]

Half the value of bitcoins produced means half the miners will be shut down?  This is a false statement.

To a rough approximation, it is realistic. If you have a payroll of $500k and that gets you 10 workers of the appropriate skill level, if you cut that payroll to $250k, you can now get 5 workers of the appropriate skill level.

Of course, there is likely to be some increase in hashing efficiency over time but we are talking less than two weeks so I am ignoring that.

This is irrelevant to the point anyway.

Only if all employees are being paid the same wage.  Thus it only works if you assume that all Miners pay the same overhead, but they don't.   The largest players have efficient equipment and are in low low low cost areas.  Sure, we will see some drop in hash power, but I expect it to be like the last halving: barely noticeable.

[galdur]

We get this above 345 and it's ON

Well, this could be a bit of a problem... I plan to close 50% of my long just below that, to lock some profits, and others may think the same...

To be honest I don't think it'll happen...right now. Seems we need to retest 300 or upper 2xx again before the next big move up. Either way, it will happen by the end of the year.

edit: probably the end of the month

The move up looks suspicious to me. I think it could crash back down again, but if it can stay above 330 for another day then it might be bullish. It's already wavering above and below 330 so traders aren't sure what it's going to do yet. I'm going to observe it and not make any panic decisions.

It´s a bear market so any bullish moves are suspicious until they become a trend I guess. It seemed to find a convincing bottom back there in January and had since been testing a range between what 220-300 until this big move recently. I think it´s starting to form a new and higher range after checking out the old one pretty well, maybe the bottom of that will turn out to be around 300 could be a little lower, time will tell.

[galdur]

Also, if the market anticipates the halving next year to be bullish, it should be starting to price that in about now. Markets try to be ahead of the curve after all.

[Fatman3001]

BAAAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!



We're ready for takeoff!!!

[Richy_T]

Only if all employees are being paid the same wage.  Thus it only works if you assume that all Miners pay the same overhead, but they don't.   The largest players have efficient equipment and are in low low low cost areas.  Sure, we will see some drop in hash power, but I expect it to be like the last halving: barely noticeable.

I hope and believe so also. But mining has become a lot more competitive and margins are thinner. It could get interesting but I'll be holding all the way through.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[BitofaN1]

Hey, look, it's perfectly symmetrical!

Maybe because it's the same whale that droped us over the week-end? Looks like his plan of buying below 320 didn't succeed.

[ImI]

Also, if the market anticipates the halving next year to be bullish, it should be starting to price that in about now. Markets try to be ahead of the curve after all.

i expect the halving-hype to begin in january

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation