Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

Only if all employees are being paid the same wage.  Thus it only works if you assume that all Miners pay the same overhead, but they don't.   The largest players have efficient equipment and are in low low low cost areas.  Sure, we will see some drop in hash power, but I expect it to be like the last halving: barely noticeable.

I hope and believe so also. But mining has become a lot more competitive and margins are thinner. It could get interesting but I'll be holding all the way through.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[BitofaN1]

Hey, look, it's perfectly symmetrical!

Maybe because it's the same whale that droped us over the week-end? Looks like his plan of buying below 320 didn't succeed.

[ImI]

Also, if the market anticipates the halving next year to be bullish, it should be starting to price that in about now. Markets try to be ahead of the curve after all.

i expect the halving-hype to begin in january

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[jbreher]

When the halving comes, after the next difficulty adjustment comes, there will be half the value number of bitcoins being produced ...

FTFY

The extreme opposite viewpoint is that there is demand for 25BTC/block * 6block/hr * 24hr/day * $320/BTC = $1,152,000 worth of BTC per day. This $1.15 M demand may stay the same across the halving. This would indicate an equal value. In such a case, the new equilibrium price would be $640.

Granted, the truth will likely be somewhere in between.

Of course, I am of the opinion that BTC is drastically undervalued today. But that's just, like, my opinion, man.

[Divitiae miserae]

Dump coming dump coming dump coming...

[AlexGR]

when the halving comes
hash-power won't drop so dramatically
Its not as tho the big farms aren't turning a profit...
and miners only get more efficient.
so there will most definitely be a lot of miners dropping out but closer to 10-25%, hashrate will drop out, and then start to climb again....

....
....
Let's say that, for example, it takes an average of $7 of electricity to generate $10 of bitcoins. That's a pretty good profit margin and is probably over-generous. Now the halving happens and suddenly everyone is spending $7 of electricity to generate $5 of bitcoins. The most sensible thing to do is switch off until the next difficulty change. The problem is, this is not just for one miner but any of them who are paying over $5 of electricity to generate a bitcoin.

Now, as I say, I think this won't come to pass for various reasons but those reasons are not very solid.

I will use a gold analogy to show something here: Bitcoin's mining game theory is slightly different than the one gold has, in the sense that when the price of gold goes down mining can be temporarily halted in deposits which require more energy expenditure in terms of diesel etc. The gold miner knows the gold will be there to dig later, in the more "expensive" cut of land, if gold prices rise and it becomes profitable.

Now in Bitcoin there is a race against time as the production is steady for 4 years, then halved, then halved, etc. So, unlike gold, where a spike in prices can lead to production increase of the unmined gold in the expensive cuts, BTC will still get -50% production every 4 years. This knowledge of the dwindling supply (that if I don't mine today, tomorrow it won't be there to get mined - it will be lost), makes the game theory aspect somewhat more speculative and risky.

What if I mined today and dumped much later when coins-to-be-mined will have been reduced significantly and my price for the same coins will have gone up? It's something that must be factored in. So even if a miner says, ah crap, we got a halving of -50% so it's not worth it anymore, he has to remember that even at a -50% rate, in 4 years from that time, the rate will be even lower (-50% again). It's something that also works in his favor.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Fatman3001]

[macsga]

According to my sources, this is a critical point for uptrend (or downtrend) for that matter. I tend to believe it's the former, but I'm a permaholder as well...

[Fatman3001]

-snip-

According to my sources, this is a critical point for uptrend (or downtrend) for that matter. I tend to believe it's the former, but I'm a permaholder as well...

Sources?

Do you have monkeys in Greece too?

[Richy_T]

The extreme opposite viewpoint is that there is demand for 25BTC/block * 6block/hr * 24hr/day * $320/BTC = $1,152,000 worth of BTC per day. This $1.15 M demand may stay the same across the halving. This would indicate an equal value. In such a case, the new equilibrium price would be $640.

Granted, the truth will likely be somewhere in between.

Of course, I am of the opinion that BTC is drastically undervalued today. But that's just, like, my opinion, man.

No way is the price going to double at the point of the having though. It will climb in the leadup to the halving which will result in more hashing power being brought online which will cause the difficulty to increase. Now, it's possible that the price will climb enough, faster than hashing power is added that there will be enough profit to not encourage miners to switch off and there may be some other factors as well but there's nothing solid.

[Richy_T]

I will use a gold analogy to show something here:

Here's the issue: A slow down in gold mining does not decrease the rate of gold transactions. Nor does it delay the time at which gold mining would become more profitable again.

[TReano]

Well I guess the next 24h are critical... huh?

[Divitiae miserae]

24y*

[Dotto]

The trend is your friend... but there´s no way to read this trend. Are we going up or down?.

I think down in hours and up in 1 or 2 days

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Fatman3001]

http://insidebitcoins.com/news/andreas-antonopoulos-trolls-are-disrupting-bitcoin-development/35829

According to Antonopoulos, the possible fracturing of the Bitcoin community as a whole could be partially due to paid trolls who work for various government agencies around the world.

Fucking lambie, the most disruptive technology ever!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

http://insidebitcoins.com/news/andreas-antonopoulos-trolls-are-disrupting-bitcoin-development/35829

According to Antonopoulos, the possible fracturing of the Bitcoin community as a whole could be partially due to paid trolls who work for various government agencies around the world.

Fucking lambie, the most disruptive technology ever!

lmao!