Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin looks broken:
http://www.coindesk.com/controlling-perception-bitcoin-broken/

Bears like you failed to grab cheap btc and now they are trying to bring down btc price by any means. This article is bullshit. Its author is someone from Mike Hern`s camp. Btc`s growth is unstoppable.

You seem to think bears are the opposite of holders, which they're not.
Real bears will do the opposite of what you think they do -- they *help* you pump the shit out of BTC, feed your mania, and only when your hysterical optimism crescendoes & BTC crests? That's the ideal entry point for shorts.

Yeah, bears are so amazing, but they kind of lost control of BTC prices in recent months, maybe even in August when they could not keep prices in the $200s... ..

Anyhow, these bears are not in control, as you seem to argue, but yeah, I will agree that bears have the ability to profit from downward price movements if they can play the momentum correctly, but that does not mean that they are controlling such momentum, even though they may have some periods of success to reverse price momentum.

[rtrtcrypto]

Why do you (and others) feel so strongly about the breaking mid-800s = 3k+?
In your mind, once we see 875 we will quickly see 2.5k+? Can you unpack that more?

Bitcoin looks broken:
http://www.coindesk.com/controlling-perception-bitcoin-broken/

The article is nearly pure nonsense because the actual facts, including the price breaking strongly (and seemingly irreverseably) above $500 speak loudly and convincingly that people are buying bitcoins and the ones that matter (those buying) do not perceive bitcoin to be broken... otherwise they would not be paying more than $500 and then more than $600 and then more than $700 per coin..

So, yeah, hard to convince people when we cannot get BTC prices back into the $400s.. and even the $400s was not a bad place to be, after BTC prices had been in the $200s for nearly a year.

But, yeah, Tzupy start preparing your bear ass for continued upwards price movements, and you must realize that there is some chance that we are going to have continued resistance in the upper $700s and also in the $800s, but seems likely that if we clearly get past the mid $800s, we are going to need to brace ourselves for the $3k plus price territories.

[rjclarke2000]

Bitcoin looks broken:
http://www.coindesk.com/controlling-perception-bitcoin-broken/

The article is nearly pure nonsense because the actual facts, including the price breaking strongly (and seemingly irreverseably) above $500 speak loudly and convincingly that people are buying bitcoins and the ones that matter (those buying) do not perceive bitcoin to be broken... otherwise they would not be paying more than $500 and then more than $600 and then more than $700 per coin..

So, yeah, hard to convince people when we cannot get BTC prices back into the $400s.. and even the $400s was not a bad place to be, after BTC prices had been in the $200s for nearly a year.

But, yeah, Tzupy start preparing your bear ass for continued upwards price movements, and you must realize that there is some chance that we are going to have continued resistance in the upper $700s and also in the $800s, but seems likely that if we clearly get past the mid $800s, we are going to need to brace ourselves for the $3k plus price territories.

Hi J

out of interest do you not think there will resistance in the 900s, 1000s, 2000s? From what I see there is always a "round" number which becomes a sticking point.

I'd love 3k Bitcoin though. I'd skip everywhere instead of walk.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin looks broken:
http://www.coindesk.com/controlling-perception-bitcoin-broken/

The article is nearly pure nonsense because the actual facts, including the price breaking strongly (and seemingly irreverseably) above $500 speak loudly and convincingly that people are buying bitcoins and the ones that matter (those buying) do not perceive bitcoin to be broken... otherwise they would not be paying more than $500 and then more than $600 and then more than $700 per coin..

So, yeah, hard to convince people when we cannot get BTC prices back into the $400s.. and even the $400s was not a bad place to be, after BTC prices had been in the $200s for nearly a year.

But, yeah, Tzupy start preparing your bear ass for continued upwards price movements, and you must realize that there is some chance that we are going to have continued resistance in the upper $700s and also in the $800s, but seems likely that if we clearly get past the mid $800s, we are going to need to brace ourselves for the $3k plus price territories.

Hi J

out of interest do you not think there will resistance in the 900s, 1000s, 2000s? From what I see there is always a "round" number which becomes a sticking point.

I'd love 3k Bitcoin though. I'd skip everywhere instead of walk.

Of course, we have to speculate in terms of probabilities rather than absolutes... and I cannot be claiming to have any kind of technical expertise.

I know that a lot of folks (especially bitcoin newbies) talk about cashing out at $1,000 or some point soon thereafter, and in that regard, they believe that $1,000 is such a large value for this magical money.  They seem to be thinking in terms of unit value rather than market cap, so certainly there will be some attempts of bears to capitalize on those kinds of various public sentiments in order to attempt to reverse the upward momentum or even to cause folks to cash out at price points that seem unsustainable to regular folks... and yeah, $1,000 and $2,000 are such price points.

I certainly am no expert; however, in the end, I think that getting passed the mid $800s is likely to create so much upward momentum and even coming from financial big players too that such price points and upward momentum is going to significantly overwhelm the resistance.  And, yeah, there are more tools to short and more tools to bet on downward bitcoin price movement, but to me it seems that these kinds of new tools are not going to be strong enough to overwhelm the upwards momentum that comes after the mid $800s.

In my own perception of the May 2016 move above $500, that move above $500 has been quite a bit more bullish than I had anticipated. 

I had actually expected for the price to go up faster passed $500 and into the mid $600s - possibly touching $700s  like within a week or two and then correcting back into the $400s...

So, yeah, so far these BTC price movements above $500 is acting quite a bit more bullish than I anticipated, and really the bears seem to be having a bit more difficulties than expected to get the price to go back down into the $500s and they could not even keep it below mid $500s for more than a few minutes.  So, yeah, doesn't mean that we are not going to witness greater price battle attempts in these $600 and $700s price territories, but the upward price momentum and support for these current prices seems to be playing out pretty well for us bulls (and btc hodlers)... and that is part of the reason why I am still inclined to think that resistance at $900, $1,000  and $2,000 will not be as great as we may otherwise conjecture based on pure numerology..

Sure, on a personal protection level, I am going to continue to cash out small amounts along the way upwards in the even that we go upwards, just in case, and sure we could be surprised to experience unexpected price reversals at any point..  That is one thing about bitcoin is that the unexpected is kind of expected and we have to continue to prepare (on a personal level for price moves in either direction).  Depending on how the upwards movement goes, exactly, I am thinking that we could get more price resistance in the $2k to $3k price territory... even though the most likely point to get a significant correction would be (at some possibly unexpected point) in the $3k to $5k price territory.

[AmazonStuff]

Only 3 digits baby

[JayJuanGee]

Why do you (and others) feel so strongly about the breaking mid-800s = 3k+?
In your mind, once we see 875 we will quickly see 2.5k+? Can you unpack that more?

Bitcoin looks broken:
http://www.coindesk.com/controlling-perception-bitcoin-broken/

The article is nearly pure nonsense because the actual facts, including the price breaking strongly (and seemingly irreverseably) above $500 speak loudly and convincingly that people are buying bitcoins and the ones that matter (those buying) do not perceive bitcoin to be broken... otherwise they would not be paying more than $500 and then more than $600 and then more than $700 per coin..

So, yeah, hard to convince people when we cannot get BTC prices back into the $400s.. and even the $400s was not a bad place to be, after BTC prices had been in the $200s for nearly a year.

But, yeah, Tzupy start preparing your bear ass for continued upwards price movements, and you must realize that there is some chance that we are going to have continued resistance in the upper $700s and also in the $800s, but seems likely that if we clearly get past the mid $800s, we are going to need to brace ourselves for the $3k plus price territories.

I think that I kind of outlined my thinking in my above post, but I think that the main idea is regarding momentum and market psychology.  Surely, none of these kinds of outcomes are inevitable because we are still dealing with a lot of unknowns, including human behavior and even attempts at manipulative behavior.  So, even though it may sound as if some folks, including myself, are talking in terms of absolutes, many of us are likely speaking in terms of probabilities, but just using linguistic short-cuts to appear as if we are talking in absolutes.

Actually there are a few folks who do talk in terms of absolutes and math, like as if certain price points are inevitable, and I am not one of those folks, even though sometimes my language may be a little sloppy in appearing to put me in that camp.

[rtrtcrypto]

Ok,

Then let me get an opinion. If you see the price at $950 you'd be inclined to hold all the way up to 2k+? A sell target of $1200 makes little sense to you given your impression (probabilities that the market will overshoot past last ATH)?


***EDIT: Sorry, didn't notice the reply above, which more or less covers this as well.

Why do you (and others) feel so strongly about the breaking mid-800s = 3k+?
In your mind, once we see 875 we will quickly see 2.5k+? Can you unpack that more?

Bitcoin looks broken:
http://www.coindesk.com/controlling-perception-bitcoin-broken/

The article is nearly pure nonsense because the actual facts, including the price breaking strongly (and seemingly irreverseably) above $500 speak loudly and convincingly that people are buying bitcoins and the ones that matter (those buying) do not perceive bitcoin to be broken... otherwise they would not be paying more than $500 and then more than $600 and then more than $700 per coin..

So, yeah, hard to convince people when we cannot get BTC prices back into the $400s.. and even the $400s was not a bad place to be, after BTC prices had been in the $200s for nearly a year.

But, yeah, Tzupy start preparing your bear ass for continued upwards price movements, and you must realize that there is some chance that we are going to have continued resistance in the upper $700s and also in the $800s, but seems likely that if we clearly get past the mid $800s, we are going to need to brace ourselves for the $3k plus price territories.

I think that I kind of outlined my thinking in my above post, but I think that the main idea is regarding momentum and market psychology.  Surely, none of these kinds of outcomes are inevitable because we are still dealing with a lot of unknowns, including human behavior and even attempts at manipulative behavior.  So, even though it may sound as if some folks, including myself, are talking in terms of absolutes, many of us are likely speaking in terms of probabilities, but just using linguistic short-cuts to appear as if we are talking in absolutes.

Actually there are a few folks who do talk in terms of absolutes and math, like as if certain price points are inevitable, and I am not one of those folks, even though sometimes my language may be a little sloppy in appearing to put me in that camp.

[nioc]

I'd love 3k Bitcoin though. I'd skip everywhere instead of walk.

It's amazing how fast you can travel by skipping.  More fun than running but less control.

In anticipation of 3k btc I bought some today.  I can only buy when I have fiat and more often than not that coincides with an increase in the price of btc.  Then again btc has been increasing for almost a year now. 

[Spaceman_Spiff]

short term looks bullish to me.

[JimboToronto]

Bitcoin looks broken:
http://www.coindesk.com/controlling-perception-bitcoin-broken/

Bears like you failed to grab cheap btc and now they are trying to bring down btc price by any means. This article is bullshit. Its author is someone from Mike Hern`s camp. Btc`s growth is unstoppable.

Please don't feed the trolls and their hysterical, childish pessimism.

[JimboToronto]

Then again btc has been increasing for almost a year 8 years now. 

Except for a short period (2014) it's increased in value at a phenomenal rate.

[JayJuanGee]

Ok,

Then let me get an opinion. If you see the price at $950 you'd be inclined to hold all the way up to 2k+? A sell target of $1200 makes little sense to you given your impression (probabilities that the market will overshoot past last ATH)?


***EDIT: Sorry, didn't notice the reply above, which more or less covers this as well.

[edited out]

Yeah, that is more or less correct that I covered the topic.. but in essence, the amounts of BTC that I would sell would be relatively smaller amounts in the $850 to $2k price territory, and maybe a little larger amounts in the $2k to $3k territory and a little larger amounts in the $3k to $5k territory.

Just note that my strategy in respect to BTC is never to really sell all of it; however, I may sell larger portions (such as up to 60% of my holdings), but on a personal level, at this time, I do not plan to sell 100% of my BTC holdings, even though there could be circumstances that develop that cause me to reconsider my current plans and to sell higher portions than I had earlier intended to sell....  

I think that currently my most bullish scenario and then bearish reversal only allows me to sell up to 57% of my BTC stash, but I will concede that my emotions or reconsiderations based on circumstances could cause me to sell more than my allocated amount in certain anticipated price reversal scenarios.  We cannot really know for sure about those scenarios until they kind of play out, and whether or not it would be practical, efficient and reasonable to sell under some kinds of scenarios.

[origin12]

short term looks bullish to me.

$700 on Bitfinex

Now $702, now $703

Short term is certainly bullish, the walls are being eaten fast and this is only the warm up for after the halving.

[AZwarel]

[JimboToronto]

short term looks bullish to me.

$700 on Bitfinex

Looks like the almost 2-week-old beartrap is snapping shut.

My condolences to anyone who got suckered into selling below $600.

[Its About Sharing]

Funny, Germany just won their game in the 2nd 11 meter (shoot out), on their last kick, and then BTC crosses 700...

[bitebits]

Look bitcoin is not broken, transaction times are decent, fees are decent, the blocks are not full and BTC prices are rising on a pretty decent level...

[600watt]

Funny, Germany just won their game in the 2nd 11 meter (shoot out), on their last kick, and then BTC crosses 700...

it must be close to 50 years ago that germany was able to win vs. italy in an world or EU soccer cup. the half century tournament winning streak of the italian team has ended today.

edit: let´s hope bitcoin has started its 50 year rise back in okt 2015

[JayJuanGee]

Look bitcoin is not broken, transaction times are decent, fees are decent, the blocks are not full and BTC prices are rising on a pretty decent level...

Yeah... you are making shit up, when you are attempting to imply the burning dog scenario, because that is simply not an accurate depiction of the state of affairs in bitcoin... there is no emergency and no looming emergency, except to the extent that bitcoin denialists, anti-bitcoiners, banker shills and XT/classic big blocker proponents are attempting to mischaracterize the situation as if there were some kind of looming doom and gloom scenario on the horizon...

In other words, pure scare tactics with almost no factual support in the real world.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

It's finally happened. The good professor has snapped his marbles.

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4qxchc/professor_of_computer_science_i_have_no_words/