Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[yefi]

LOL I'm gonna laugh so hard when the price gradually goes down after halving.

People think it's just gonna shoot up on halving day lmao

Clearly, being wrong has taught you no humility.

The halving is already priced in

We're going down into the 300's

[ImI]

LOL I'm gonna laugh so hard when the price gradually goes down after halving.

People think it's just gonna shoot up on halving day lmao

Clearly, being wrong has taught you no humility.

The halving is already priced in

We're going down into the 300's

lol

[TReano]

to every good dump there is a good pump before.

[USB-S]

JJG, can you speculate a scenario where Russians instead of trying to ban bitcoin, would start hoarding bitcoin.

I am not sure whether I understand the political context sufficiently in order to be very accurate.  I think that now, Russian officials are kind of skeptical of bitcoin and even having misconceptions that it is a kind of USA product; however, yeah, there could be scenarios in which they recognize bitcoin as a possible means to undermine the USD, which seems like it would be a more accurate assessment to consider Bitcoin as a competitor to the USD rather than some kind of USA invention.

Also what are the odds of any country publicly announcing that they are hoarding bitcoins?

I think that your questions are very good, and in order to come up with such questions, you have probably thought through some of these various scenarios.

To me it does not seem that any government would announce that they are hoarding bitcoins, unless they have already invested considerably into bitcoin and then are attempting to cause a pumping effect by such announcement.  Sure, those kinds of scenarios could play out in the future, but it seems that we are quite a ways from such a scenario playing out.  On the other hand, the seeming assumption of the question seems to be correct that sometimes it may take only a few influential persons within a government system to cause by persuasion some changes in policy and risk taking in terms of adopting and/or hoarding bitcoins.   I do recall that there has been some discussions of these kinds of potentialities in some smaller governments, including Cypress and Barbados, and probably there have been some other areas in which bitcoin had been given some serious attention... but yeah, seems like the more likely scenario would be secret hoarding rather than public hoarding.

It only takes one Putin to undermine USD by buying bitcoins.

Also aren't governments the biggest institutions that are currently interested in bitcoin?

I think that frequently a large and overwhelming majority of government officials do not recognize potentiality in bitcoin, so they are frequently considering ways to compete against it rather than somehow playing into the bitcoin infrastructure.  Sure there are some exceptional government officials, but so far they are likely rare and not influential in terms of causing radical bitcoin adoption within their respective governments.

Governments are the biggest institutions followed by banks, that are interested in bitcoin. I'm not talking about individual officials, rather in a much broader perspective. Then again how is it even possible to measure institutional interest in something.


I bet my excel sheets don't give as good of insight of my financials as yours do, but now I have way better overview of my financials thanks to it. I'm working on improving it, it seems that there are way more possibilities with excel than my mind can comprehend, thanks again for that.

[r0ach]

This is how I feel looking at halving clock:

[JayJuanGee]

LOL I'm gonna laugh so hard when the price gradually goes down after halving.

People think it's just gonna shoot up on halving day lmao

What the fuck?  You sound a bit goofy.. are you smoking something?  Drinking something?  What is causing your fogged up perception?  Wishful thinking?  or talking your book and you sold too early, hahahahahahaha?

Get a life... people don't really know what the price is going to do, but they generally seem to believe that the chances for up is better than the chances for down...

Your presumption regarding downward movement (slowly or whatever) seems to be contrary to the current bitcoin price dynamics and the price pressures.  

Currently, generally the BTC price pressures tend to be upwards, especially after crossing passed $500 and the bears (and anti-bitcoin dumpers) seem to be having a considerable amount of difficulty to get the price to go below $600..

So, in fact, there seems to be a lot of ongoing buying pressure at around $600, so it is going to take a hell-of-a lot of dumping volume to get prices below $600.  Accordingly, if there is any price trickle that is going to take place on low volume, that price trickle seems to be upwards rather than downwards.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

It only takes one Putin to undermine USD by buying bitcoins.

Yep.. I think that is part of the reason why the underlying fundamentals of bitcoin remains so bullish, and it could be that something like this is already taking place by some governmental officials (maybe not Putin specifically) that is causing some ongoing upwards pressures on the price, yet there remains continuing difficulties in keeping the price down..

In these regard, the longer that the price stays above $500 (and apparently substantially so at the moment), the more and more difficult it becomes to undermine.. and the word of bitcoin get's out more and more and more by some individuals who may have capacities to drive the price up in very substantial amounts.. which also causes others to follow. etc, etc.

[edited out]

Governments are the biggest institutions followed by banks, that are interested in bitcoin. I'm not talking about individual officials, rather in a much broader perspective. Then again how is it even possible to measure institutional interest in something.

A lot of institutions, whether governmental, financial institutions or other private institutions engage in conduct that is less than open (and maybe even strategically in the perceived self-interest of the institution), so it can be quite difficult to measure exactly what they are doing, when they may not want to disclose certain aspects of their conduct. 

Surely, some institutions will not be authorized to invest in any way in bitcoin, so in that regard, the leaders of some of those kinds of institutions would not want to take an institutional risk on bitcoin when they are a bit nervous about downside risk if things don't go too well.

I bet my excel sheets don't give as good of insight of my financials as yours do, but now I have way better overview of my financials thanks to it. I'm working on improving it, it seems that there are way more possibilities with excel than my mind can comprehend, thanks again for that.

Yep, excel is very powerful, and it can take years to learn about a lot of the tools and formulas that you can create.  Probably I am using only a fraction of the potential of it, even though I have been coming up with various creativity and linkings that provide incredible assistance to me.  Sometimes, also, with the passage of time, you will think up some new and creative way to add some more tools and functionality to your excel sheets. 

For example, I have about 10 locations that I keep bitcoins, and I keep track of the buys and sells at each of the locations (and many times the locations are active).  But I also have a separate sheet in which I keep track of my bitcoin trades and keep track of cash flow within the trades in the event that BTC prices go down or up.. and there are so many ways to play around with those kinds of linking of sheets and the data contained therein..   Accordingly, I think that having the sheets does help me to update and reassess the current status of my BTC trades and also to fairly quickly reconsider or reallocate, if needed, when I have had a lot of BTC trading activities in a short period of time.

[savetherainforest]

This is how I feel looking at halving clock:

Is that a meth blowing bag?

[marcus_of_augustus]

bulking up for the halving

[DaRude]

LOL I'm gonna laugh so hard when the price gradually goes down after halving.

People think it's just gonna shoot up on halving day lmao

Why would it gradually go down when the reduced supply of coins restricts the miners to only dumping half the coins they could beforehand? Most posts here expect a gradual increase in the price, not a huge price spike on halving day.

Good thing major players don't understand how this price rise is a sure thing. More cheap coins for us!

It's all about expectations. If market over estimated the effects of the halving, people borrowed say $10MM  to leverage long and pay $5k a day, expecting BTC to go to da moon on the halvening day. Then halvening comes, and the price is stable (or worse some short decided to dump and it goes down) now you're disappointed and have to cover your long, by selling $10MM in BTC which squeezes other leveraged longs. It shouldn't be gradual though but rather sudden, and then the bigger market forces come in play and if true demand goes up (or even stays constant) BTC will gradually crawl up

[Coinnosaurus]

LOL I'm gonna laugh so hard when the price gradually goes down after halving.

People think it's just gonna shoot up on halving day lmao

Clearly, being wrong has taught you no humility.

lol , no one wants to listen us , now look at the chart son 

[Karpeles]

LOL I'm gonna laugh so hard when the price gradually goes down after halving.

People think it's just gonna shoot up on halving day lmao

Clearly, being wrong has taught you no humility.

lol , no one wants to listen us , now look at the chart son 

It is going down right now. From 4500+ to 4300- in minutes(huobi price)

Tendency is bigger prices long term, but in the halving event the better I can see is no more falls, so best sell and wait

[HyphyBTC]

Low volume bot trading in China manages to bring the price down with big volume on other exchanges. They don't even try to hide the manipulation, but I don't blame them, traders are blind anyways.

China, with Huobi, its "leading exchange because of volume" drops with around 500 BTC traded, while Bitfinex drops with around 6000 BTC traded. Whats even funnier is that Bitstamp had more volume on this dip than Huobi. The day these Chinese exchanges have fees is the day the whales lose their surefire way to eat up all you minnows.

[siera]

Price halving!!!!

[CoinHopper]

Why does the poll have the options <999 and <1000
 

[CoinHopper]

Price halving!!!!

That wont happen.

[PoolMinor]

Why does the poll have the options <999 and <1000
 

Look again

[CoinHopper]

Why does the poll have the options <999 and <1000
 

Look again

 
 

My mistake.

[r0ach]

Low volume bot trading in China manages to bring the price down with big volume on other exchanges. They don't even try to hide the manipulation, but I don't blame them, traders are blind anyways.

China, with Huobi, its "leading exchange because of volume" drops with around 500 BTC traded, while Bitfinex drops with around 6000 BTC traded. Whats even funnier is that Bitstamp had more volume on this dip than Huobi. The day these Chinese exchanges have fees is the day the whales lose their surefire way to eat up all you minnows.

Yea, was wondering if anyone else noticed this.  Huobi rigged that drop to go as low as possible with 0 volume wash trading.  Meanwhile, the entire sell side is 2-3 fake walls that will be pulled and the rest dust, so it could rise right back up to where it dropped from in seconds if "they" wanted to.

[ask]

Low volume bot trading in China manages to bring the price down with big volume on other exchanges. They don't even try to hide the manipulation, but I don't blame them, traders are blind anyways.

China, with Huobi, its "leading exchange because of volume" drops with around 500 BTC traded, while Bitfinex drops with around 6000 BTC traded. Whats even funnier is that Bitstamp had more volume on this dip than Huobi. The day these Chinese exchanges have fees is the day the whales lose their surefire way to eat up all you minnows.

Yea, was wondering if anyone else noticed this.  Huobi rigged that drop to go as low as possible with 0 volume wash trading.  Meanwhile, the entire sell side is 2-3 fake walls that will be pulled and the rest dust, so it could rise right back up to where it dropped from in seconds if "they" wanted to.

Next leg is DOWN.