Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I do not believe any of the other cryptpcurreny have the kind of real vision like we have. This exchange will one day become the one with the most cryptocurrency users worldwide.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTqZCjUx1UI

A lot of you will be even business partners and friends.

[Hunyadi]

IT DOESN'T LOOK GOOD!

If you want to have any gains from bitcoin or avoid further losses, then you should sell all your bitcoins now. We are in a clearly confirmed long term downtrend toward historical analysis lows based on all confirmed forum data and databases confirmed by all government sources. These are just the facts.

[DaRude]

IT DOESN'T LOOK GOOD!

If you want to have any gains from bitcoin or avoid further losses, then you should sell all your bitcoins now. We are in a clearly confirmed long term downtrend toward historical analysis lows based on all confirmed forum data and databases confirmed by all government sources. These are just the facts.

No way, is proudhon saying that ... bitcoin ... is ... dead?? NO WAY!!! Yes it's been confirmed!

[JayJuanGee]

IT DOESN'T LOOK GOOD!

If you want to have any gains from bitcoin or avoid further losses, then you should sell all your bitcoins now. We are in a clearly confirmed long term downtrend toward historical analysis lows based on all confirmed forum data and databases confirmed by all government sources. These are just the facts.

So, you are saying we should sell all our coins and then maybe buy back in at a lower price, like maybe what price?  $500s?  $400s?  $300s? or some other price?

And, then what would be a better investment than bitcoins?  Just keep the proceeds in dollars, or you have some other suggestion?  PMs?  Real estate?  Stocks? or some other crypto? ETH?  DAO? WAVES?

My bitcoins have been doing pretty good in the past year-ish, and the future seems pretty bright for bitcoin with ongoing development, adoption, decent press, halvening, seg wit, lightning network, pretty much resolution of the blocksize debate with the discrediting of a lot of the big blocker nonsense (XT, Classic and Gavin, for example), but if you are saying sell all the bitcoins, then maybe I need to consider other options, no?  especially, if you could possibly know what you are talking about, especially if you are saying the confirmed data suggests to sell, no?

Is that confirmed data, also known as FUCD spreading, or is it real, like real, real?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

All the real, real accounts have been bought and sold half a dozen times each, at least. This is our stock in trade, if you hadn't noticed?
NB. I bought this one for 2 BTC from a Bavarian. The money was meant to get him to a Trout festival in Carson city. But I don't see how I'm supposed to make that money back. In hindsight it may turn out to have been a sort of poor business decision.

[MinermanNC]

IT DOESN'T LOOK GOOD!

If you want to have any gains from bitcoin or avoid further losses, then you should sell all your bitcoins now. We are in a clearly confirmed long term downtrend toward historical analysis lows based on all confirmed forum data and databases confirmed by all government sources. These are just the facts.

Been hearing that kind of talk for almost 4 years lol,,, they keep getting proven wrong...

Edit: and mix in all the other alts etc. I'd say crypto is doing well overall..... I don't rely just on BTC either to make money, although all roads lead to Bitcoin 

[Karartma1]

going a bit up again this morning. halving is very close.

$600 held: now is time to see what the price will be on the very first blocks of the 12.5 bitcoin reward era

That's what matters to me, nothing else

[aminorex]

all roads lead to Bitcoin  

Indeed, almost all crypto purchases and liquidations alike achieve interface to fiat via bitcoin exchange, even today.  It's just efficient enough so that the motivation to build a parallel system of exchanges is below threshold.  As a result, growth in alts just means more growth in BTC vs fiat.  Fortunately some alts are growing in BTC terms as well, over the long haul, so that synergies prevail.  I'm looking at you, XMR.

[PoolMinor]

Mind blowing news from Dr. Ruja.

The business is heading in to phase 2, so if phase 1 scared you with doubt and suspicion...

This just in! An open letter to Dr. Ruja from former coin top leader and host Imi Shah.  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8C9WbHbHc8M

This is the wrong thread for this.

[aminorex]

Checked with my monkey, despite that he never seems to do well with crypto on sub-hour or daily + bars.  (Still doing quite will with FI, commodities, FX and equities though, on all scales -- kept me profitable every single day since Brexit, on hedged trading of swings in Equities, ETPs, sovereigns, and gold.)

Monkey thinks it looks grim daily right now (which could just be how a bear trap looks to the monkey), but in 2-6 weeks expects BTCUSD shooting for 975, and with some confidence.  He indicates that any serious correction or protracted sideway movement is probably 2 months away, and expects a general longer-term uptrend.

Intraday, the monkey thinks it is just beginning a little ramp up, right now, which should run a few hours.  Not sure it can break out of the 640s, in that time, but if it does, look for a continuation trend towards 677.  Current intraday support is  618.  These are coinbase prices.

On the daily chart support is 444, and resistance is 851.  STARC band is 580 to 742, daily.

The last intraday bottom was called out most clearly by the monkey when he was looking at 2 hour bars.  On that scale, he thinks we're in a downtrend likely to turn up in 14 hours or so, but he's wishy=washy and thinks it could flip to an uptrend on that same time scale at any moment.  On the one hour bars where he has also been doing pretty well lately, he thinks it looks like a 9-12 hour uptrend may be beginning now, and places resistance at 680, with 633 possible support.

I don't generally agree with the monkey on crypto, but he's pretty even-handed and usually or or another of his scenarios can be picked out as more likely using coarser indicators, stoch rsi, or such. where the 2 hour on Huo-bay-bi is starting to look like it has some serious upside potential.

If I had to pick one of his scenarios to trade, I would be going long, if I weren't already at an appropriate upside risk level on other grounds (which I am).

You can look at the June22 and July7 lower bounds as a pair of higher lows, lacking only a higher high above 4750 yuan, or 705 BFX, to be a confirmed uptrend, which wouldn't be likely to happen before July 15, in any case.

In other news, he wants me to start a small position in long GBPJPY, and to triple down in about 4 days, if it goes against me.  Probably more risk than  I want right now, though, and the fundamentals don't (yet) make sense to me, so I won't.

I am following his advice by shorting Treasuries over the next week or so, selling premium on  SPX with an August put anchor via diagonals, and just now hedging an ongoing bull gold trade.  He also has me short DAX in a small way.  I'm not sure if recent success on legacy instrument markets is attributable more to his picks or to my strike adjustments and scale-in/scale-out strategy.  I should really run more scenarios, were it not for the busy day job.

Most of my gains lately come from laddering on XMRBTC as it rises in month-long (so far) mostly steady uptrend.

[JayJuanGee]

Checked with my monkey, despite that he never seems to do well with crypto on sub-hour or daily + bars.  (Still doing quite will with FI, commodities, FX and equities though, on all scales -- kept me profitable every single day since Brexit, on hedged trading of swings in Equities, ETPs, sovereigns, and gold.)

Monkey thinks it looks grim daily right now (which could just be how a bear trap looks to the monkey), but in 2-6 weeks expects BTCUSD shooting for 975, and with some confidence.  He indicates that any serious correction or protracted sideway movement is probably 2 months away, and expects a general longer-term uptrend.

Intraday, the monkey thinks it is just beginning a little ramp up, right now, which should run a few hours.  Not sure it can break out of the 640s, in that time, but if it does, look for a continuation trend towards 677.  Current intraday support is  618.  These are coinbase prices.

On the daily chart support is 444, and resistance is 851.  STARC band is 580 to 742, daily.

The last intraday bottom was called out most clearly by the monkey when he was looking at 2 hour bars.  On that scale, he thinks we're in a downtrend likely to turn up in 14 hours or so, but he's wishy=washy and thinks it could flip to an uptrend on that same time scale at any moment.  On the one hour bars where he has also been doing pretty well lately, he thinks it looks like a 9-12 hour uptrend may be beginning now, and places resistance at 680, with 633 possible support.

I don't generally agree with the monkey on crypto, but he's pretty even-handed and usually or or another of his scenarios can be picked out as more likely using coarser indicators, stoch rsi, or such. where the 2 hour on Huo-bay-bi is starting to look like it has some serious upside potential.

If I had to pick one of his scenarios to trade, I would be going long, if I weren't already at an appropriate upside risk level on other grounds (which I am).

You can look at the June22 and July7 lower bounds as a pair of higher lows, lacking only a higher high above 4750 yuan, or 705 BFX, to be a confirmed uptrend, which wouldn't be likely to happen before July 15, in any case.

To me it seems that Monkey is better at technical analysis with standard commodities and larger scale currencies because they are traded on much bigger markets with much smaller percentage price swings based on much more players in the market attempting to manipulate the prices.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a much less mature market with likely a much smaller community that is able to manipulate it in considerable ways in order to defy technical analysis, no?

I guess what I am saying is that a smaller amount of capital seems to be capable of manipulating BTC in ways that overshoot and purposefully manipulate and purposefully force the closing of shorts and longs, which would take much higher levels of capital in other markets.. and the more sophisticated players can manipulate a large number of smaller (maybe even amatuer) players that seem to be playing bitcoin.

[aminorex]

To me it seems that Monkey is better at technical analysis with standard commodities and larger scale currencies because they are traded on much bigger markets with much smaller percentage price swings based on much more players in the market attempting to manipulate the prices.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a much less mature market with likely a much smaller community that is able to manipulate it in considerable ways in order to defy technical analysis, no?

I guess what I am saying is that a smaller amount of capital seems to be capable of manipulating BTC in ways that overshoot and purposefully manipulate and purposefully force the closing of shorts and longs, which would take much higher levels of capital in other markets.. and the more sophisticated players can manipulate a large number of smaller (maybe even amatuer) players that seem to be playing bitcoin.

Seems to me you hit the nail pretty square.  I keep squeezing him for crypto forecasts, but I haven't found a way to interpret them in a suitably consistent  way so far.  More training might help.  I should add some CNN/RNN layers in my copious spare time, maybe some sentiment and news analysis too!  Alas, life is short and full of joyful diversions.

[marcus_of_augustus]

The amount of FUCD and general misinformed/malicious negativity that has been spread about the halving means there will be a relief rally of some sort when it turns out to be a nothing more than a quite boring, uneventful clicking over of the time-stamping calendar and everything works as advertised on the tin.

For those of us that have been around for the first one it isn't even a consideration but there are probably a lot of new faces who will be apprehensive about the deflationary mechanism in the bitcoin algorithm until they see it work with their own eyes.

[JayJuanGee]

To me it seems that Monkey is better at technical analysis with standard commodities and larger scale currencies because they are traded on much bigger markets with much smaller percentage price swings based on much more players in the market attempting to manipulate the prices.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a much less mature market with likely a much smaller community that is able to manipulate it in considerable ways in order to defy technical analysis, no?

I guess what I am saying is that a smaller amount of capital seems to be capable of manipulating BTC in ways that overshoot and purposefully manipulate and purposefully force the closing of shorts and longs, which would take much higher levels of capital in other markets.. and the more sophisticated players can manipulate a large number of smaller (maybe even amatuer) players that seem to be playing bitcoin.

Seems to me you hit the nail pretty square.  I keep squeezing him for crypto forecasts, but I haven't found a way to interpret them in a suitably consistent  way so far.  More training might help.  I should add some CNN/RNN layers in my copious spare time, maybe some sentiment and news analysis too!  Alas, life is short and full of joyful diversions.

Each of us have our predilections regarding how we approach problems, and I am fairly a novice in terms of BTC trading, and really I have only traded BTC on any kind of active basis starting since October 2015.  

Initially, I did not believe that BTC trading was either in my interests about how I wanted to spend my time nor my talents in attempting to make any kind of exact prediction, but I have kind of come to realize that some level of BTC trading seems to be good in order to preserve the value of my investment and also to cause some safeguards for my investment for BTC price movements in either direction.  

Mostly I have resorted to preparing for short term BTC price movements in either direction without changing my bets considerably, except a kind of assumption that in the longer run BTC prices are most likely going to be going up and sometimes I will have little inclinations here and there regarding the price in the shorter term, that sometimes turn out to be correct and other times not so much in the correct territory.  


regarding joyful diversions, watching BTC prices and fundamentals and changes in the space can sometimes be fun, too... hahahaha

[Spaceman_Spiff]

The amount of FUCD and general misinformed/malicious negativity that has been spread about the halving means there will be a relief rally of some sort when it turns out to be a nothing more than a quite boring, uneventful clicking over of the time-stamping calendar and everything works as advertised on the tin.

For those of us that have been around for the first one it isn't even a consideration but there are probably a lot of new faces who will be apprehensive about the deflationary mechanism in the bitcoin algorithm until they see it work with their own eyes.

Actually, the last halving coincided with the release of ASICS, which probably smoothed over the transition. So we might see a bit more of a slowdown this time around, but I don't expect any major issues.

[Dotto]

Don´t say bullish. Say goatish










GOATISH

[Totscha]

The amount of FUCD and general misinformed/malicious negativity that has been spread about the halving means there will be a relief rally of some sort when it turns out to be a nothing more than a quite boring, uneventful clicking over of the time-stamping calendar and everything works as advertised on the tin.

For those of us that have been around for the first one it isn't even a consideration but there are probably a lot of new faces who will be apprehensive about the deflationary mechanism in the bitcoin algorithm until they see it work with their own eyes.

Actually, the last halving coincided with the release of ASICS, which probably smoothed over the transition. So we might see a bit more of a slowdown this time around, but I don't expect any major issues.

Well the ASICs started getting released a few months after the halving (Avalon) and not really in large quantities. It all happened around the april 2013 bubble. In early 2013 FPGAs still dominated the mining scene, with GPUs switching to LTC (Scrypt). It became an ASIC only game in late 2013 when they started being available en masse. So a full year after the halving.

[andy35]

going a bit up again this morning. halving is very close.

$600 held: now is time to see what the price will be on the very first blocks of the 12.5 bitcoin reward era

That's what matters to me, nothing else

Going up or down $70 isn't a big deal now bitcoin's gone above $600. When it was half that price or lower then $70 was a big move, but not any more. The price will probably go back above $670 for the very first blocks of the 12.5 bitcoin reward era, and a few months later the reduced reward will have moved the price higher.

[savetherainforest]

454 blks left.

416 BTCitcoin Blocks left!

392 blocks left.

355BTC blocks left!!

Prepare your bear burn .gifs!!! We gonna burn them all!!!

294BTCitcoin blocks left!!!    

*Edit: I feel like I am counting down the Apocalypse!  

266 blocks left tho the end of bitcoin HAHAHAHAHA

191BTC Blocks left!!!  ... The castration of dumping miners is coming!!!

[Spaceman_Spiff]

The amount of FUCD and general misinformed/malicious negativity that has been spread about the halving means there will be a relief rally of some sort when it turns out to be a nothing more than a quite boring, uneventful clicking over of the time-stamping calendar and everything works as advertised on the tin.

For those of us that have been around for the first one it isn't even a consideration but there are probably a lot of new faces who will be apprehensive about the deflationary mechanism in the bitcoin algorithm until they see it work with their own eyes.

Actually, the last halving coincided with the release of ASICS, which probably smoothed over the transition. So we might see a bit more of a slowdown this time around, but I don't expect any major issues.

Well the ASICs started getting released a few months after the halving (Avalon) and not really in large quantities. It all happened around the april 2013 bubble. In early 2013 FPGAs still dominated the mining scene, with GPUs switching to LTC (Scrypt). It became an ASIC only game in late 2013 when they started being available en masse. So a full year after the halving.

Ok, it appears you are right.  Halving end of November and Garzik got the first ASIC for reviewing in January.  I still wonder if some of the producers might not have used the preorder money to manufacture the chips and already started mining before announcing successful production and shipping to customers.