Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ImI]

Yeah, am getting more and more convinced that this recent slide wasn't just pre-SEC anxiety but the reaction to Antpool mining BU-blocks.

Eventually we could see approval, a run-up to 2000 and then a nice little crash back to 1000 as soon as BU becomes a real issue.

[Wexlike]

What a surprising timing with the hard fork FUD just before the ETF.

[ImI]

What a surprising timing with the hard fork FUD just before the ETF.

In fact there is a connection:

ETF Hype -> Price surge -> more TXs -> Congestion -> higher Fees -> more Willingness to support BU

Its no coincidence that this issue comes up at a new ATH. Cause new ATH means more traffic, means more Fees,...

[Punisher1314]

Price is trying some support points (as the old ATH) between 1150$ - 1130$, let's see if it can tank there.

[Stevenirving]

Its quite.
Too quite...

[Killerpotleaf]

Price is trying some support points (as the old ATH) between 1150$ - 1130$, let's see if it can tank there.

right, I get the feeling if tomorrow night we are in this mid 11xx range, we are in good shape, and despite poeple anticipating the ETF being rejected, overall the market is still a strong bull, nothing can stop this train, ETF rejection crash is gonna be very nice buy opt thats all.

[Killerpotleaf]

i almost sold the top, with the idea of "sell the ETF news before it news" but i was keeping busy with other things, and besides i think the ETF has a good enough chance to pass, and the up side in that case IMO is monumental, IMO a BTC ETF at this time means a decade long bull run littered with speculative bubbles. I mean if we have market driven blocksize slowly growing with TX growth which yields an optional fee market, we're gonna make mining bitcoin more attractive AND gr8ly scale throughput, and we all know segwit in some simpler form will most definitely be adopted, so eventually we will have LN channels, after that devs will have nothing better to do then expand bitcoin's scripting lang. meanwhile MageUpload guy is gonna deliver on that bitcoin project he's been working on for years.

minus some infighting about who gets to call themselves bitcoin dev, we're golden,  >$32,000 in <2 years AKA 1/2 trillion dollar market cap  

[marcus_of_augustus]

Price is trying some support points (as the old ATH) between 1150$ - 1130$, let's see if it can tank there.

right, I get the feeling if tomorrow night we are in this mid 11xx range, we are in good shape, and despite poeple anticipating the ETF being rejected, overall the market is still a strong bull, nothing can stop this train, ETF rejection crash is gonna be very nice buy opt thats all.

... or the BU hardfork signals the beginning of the end of the secular bull run.

I can't see the attraction of a monetary system controlled by commie chinese thugs. Time to start looking for the next improved iteration, at that point its failed experiment I think.

[Punisher1314]

Price is trying some support points (as the old ATH) between 1150$ - 1130$, let's see if it can tank there.

right, I get the feeling if tomorrow night we are in this mid 11xx range, we are in good shape, and despite poeple anticipating the ETF being rejected, overall the market is still a strong bull, nothing can stop this train, ETF rejection crash is gonna be very nice buy opt thats all.

I could not find any solid proof about the ETF being approved/rejected, so i think the non hodler people's fear of a possible reject of it makes them opting to going short on btc, anyways this was expected because this last rally from later january was going up too fast before the decision. So let's hope all the weak hands are out and the price keeps more steady until that. Also pray for no more BUllshit, at least until that

[Killerpotleaf]

Price is trying some support points (as the old ATH) between 1150$ - 1130$, let's see if it can tank there.

right, I get the feeling if tomorrow night we are in this mid 11xx range, we are in good shape, and despite poeple anticipating the ETF being rejected, overall the market is still a strong bull, nothing can stop this train, ETF rejection crash is gonna be very nice buy opt thats all.

... or the BU hardfork signals the beginning of the end of the secular bull run.

I can't see the attraction of a monetary system controlled by commie chinese thugs. Time to start looking for the next improved iteration, at that point its failed experiment I think.

1.5MB blocks is not the end, only the beginning of a balanced fee market, which yield more profit to miner, and in turn more security to users at a lower cost.

this is what the free market do... they take somthing and make it better and cheaper.
give blocksize to the free market and you'll have the best fucking blocksize there ever was.

[HI-TEC99]

i almost sold the top, with the idea of "sell the ETF news before it news" but i was keeping busy with other things, and besides i think the ETF has a good enough chance to pass, and the up side in that case IMO is monumental,

If you sold at the top there's a slim chance the ETF might unexpectedly get approved early leaving you bag holding fiat while Bitcoin goes to the moon. We all expect it to drag out until the 13th but for all we know it could get approved today.

[marcus_of_augustus]

give blocksize to the free market and you'll have the best fucking blocksize there ever was.

a single chinese fabricator of chips and mining is the "free market"? What fantasy land are you in?

Centralised mining control of bitcoin is the end, p2p is over, the TX counterparty is back. Decentralised money is no more. Pretty simple.

[Killerpotleaf]

i almost sold the top, with the idea of "sell the ETF news before it news" but i was keeping busy with other things, and besides i think the ETF has a good enough chance to pass, and the up side in that case IMO is monumental,

If you sold at the top there's a slim chance the ETF might unexpectedly get approved early leaving you bag holding fiat while Bitcoin goes to the moon. We all expect it to drag out until the 13th but for all we know it could get approved today.

i didnt sell at the top but i do have a few bags of fiat...
this is why i would ask everyone here to put this link  https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/batsbzx.htm  in your favorites and check it once or twice a day. ( no need to check it after business hours )

let us know if you see a new update.

[Killerpotleaf]

give blocksize to the free market and you'll have the best fucking blocksize there ever was.

a single chinese fabricator of chips and mining is the "free market"? What fantasy land are you in?

Centralised mining control of bitcoin is the end, p2p is over, the TX counterparty is back. Decentralised money is no more. Pretty simple.

Decentralization should not be measured in the amounts of hashing power various actors have.
or the number of nodes that service the network
but in the number of poeple who openly accept one implementation of Blockchain over another.

try as you might to spell DOOM, I still see a read BOOM

[jbreher]

a single chinese fabricator of chips and mining is the "free market"?

In that the only barriers to you being a competing fabricator of chips is capital, talent, and effort, yes - that is exactly the free market.

[Paashaas]

I am dreaming of 200 usd bitcoin.... 

I dont dream anymore, those $200 coins are stored on my Trezor.

[Killerpotleaf]

I am dreaming of 200 usd bitcoin....  

I dont dream anymore, those $200 coins are stored on my Trezor.

I distinctly remember lying in bed feeling physically sick at 200.

i was like
"
should I dump?
should i send more money to the exchanges?
AAHHHHHHHHH i feel soooo sick. fuck bitcoin, fuck work, fuck life.
repeat
"

all day, in bed.

i had been buying since the first crack bellow 650

[Searing]

I am dreaming of 200 usd bitcoin.... 

I dont dream anymore, those $200 coins are stored on my Trezor.

Ditto.  Thou paper wallet via a bank safety deposit box

S

[Killerpotleaf]

I am dreaming of 200 usd bitcoin....  

I dont dream anymore, those $200 coins are stored on my Trezor.

Ditto.  Thou paper wallet via a bank safety deposit box

S

thats the best.
paper wallet in bank vault.
altho you can simply physically cut the paper-key in half and only put half in the box and the other half on your person + a copy under a rock.
The ETF is a game changer in that you actually can put 100K in without having to go full paranoid

[r0ach]

give blocksize to the free market and you'll have the best fucking blocksize there ever was.

If you ever figure out that bitcoin is a currency and not money, you'll know that it's market cap has to be floated by sheer transaction volume and not as a store of value.  Unlike what Hal Finney thought might happen, bitcoin does not have value as a settlement layer in a free market without coercion.  Bitcoin can never compete with metals on Exter's pyramid because gold and silver demolish it as a store of value due to being more anti-fragile (colloquial use of the word, FU jbreher).  

As soon as the bitcoin market cap topped out, people would immediately dump them all for metals instead.  There is no point in attempting to store generational wealth in an inferior medium for no reason that can be gone with the wind at random.  Bitcoin can be destroyed by all kinds of things while it takes something like a black hole hitting the earth to black swan metals.  The only way bitcoin has any hopes of competing with gold and silver is in utility, not trying to replicate what gold and silver already do and doing so in a worse manner.

The point is, current on-chain scaling will all result in bitcoin still being a settlement layer.  If you try to design bitcoin as a settlement layer, I believe it will fail because it can't compete with gold and silver in that regard.  You'd need to be getting into the thousands of TPS for it not to be a settlement layer, then people aren't required to store huge sums of money in it (as governed by what's economical due to transaction fees) where you'd basically be forced to use bitcoin as your savings account if you wish to use it at all with on-chain scaling.

The only way out of that conundrum is transaction bundling in some type of LN-like system.  Whether an LN-type system can be made to work in a decentralized manner is a different story.  It seems like it would also require buffering transactions in a centralized que to avoid closing out too many channels at once and overflowing the system.  Another inconvenient fact is that bitcoin's endgame security when block reward hits 0 and LN both might require inflation to work.  Bitcoin still has a lot of extremely complicated issues to work through that most people simply talking about block size don't understand.  Who knows, maybe the issues such as decentralization can't be worked through and it's just a Rube Goldberg machine.