Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Elwar]

My bet we're back in 4 digits in less than 24h

Strange. I never posted that.

[york780]

My bet we're back in 4 digits in less than 24h

Strange. I never posted that.

U did. Fact.

[DeathAngel]

We're up nearly $30 from today's opening price. Have we seen the bottom gentlemen?

[European Central Bank]

https://archive.fo/zpHrm

little or no mention of this?

a vague plan for a bitcoin classic alt which is what should've happened in the first place.

[Torque]

Hilarious how so many shill accounts on r/bitcoin are switching their tune and now saying "run from BU" and "BU is finished now" and "SegWit signaling".

What a joke. This whole debacle was planned from the beginning! Don't people realize this yet? So many bitcoiners got played and panic-sold into alts over nothing.

Maybe next time they will learn from this?

[PoolMinor]

https://archive.fo/zpHrm

little or no mention of this?

a vague plan for a bitcoin classic alt which is what should've happened in the first place.

What should have happened is these guys that don't like what Bitcoin has become should have sold and moved on to some other "coin" altogether, rather than just cloning it and calling it classic or whatever.

[European Central Bank]

What should have happened is these guys that don't like what Bitcoin has become should have sold and moved on to some other "coin" altogether, rather than just cloning it and calling it classic or whatever.

but we all get free classics to corrupt us further.

[JayJuanGee]

Hilarious how so many shill accounts on r/bitcoin are switching their tune and now saying "run from BU" and "BU is finished now" and "SegWit signaling".

What a joke. This whole debacle was planned from the beginning! Don't people realize this yet? So many bitcoiners got played and panic-sold into alts over nothing.

Maybe next time they will learn from this?

Does that mean that we are going up from here?

Is the consensus of the pump and dump crowd that they want to pump now, rather than dump?

Or maybe there is not even a consensus amongst those attempting to manipulate?

Let's say for example what you are saying is true, and there was a kind of consensus amongst a few manipulators to attempt to dump and bring the price down, and once they buy back in, then they change their tune to attempt to pump?  Even in those kinds of circumstances, there may be an inability to change the downward momentum that was exacerbated by the FUD in the first place, no? 

In any event, even if the manipulative dump is over, we could still get caught in some additional downwards and maybe even more likely a kind of consolidation period for several weeks, no?

[Torque]

In any event, even if the manipulative dump is over, we could still get caught in some additional downwards and maybe even more likely a kind of consolidation period for several weeks, no?

Yes and yes. Pumpers ultimately just want to extract more fiat $$$ from easily swayed n00bs. So the excitement surrounding the ETF is gone, this bump is over and we will consolidate sideways-ish for a long while.

The pumpers have plenty more $$$ to extract in the alt market for at least 6-8 months, maybe a year, as they slowly walk their bubble markets back down to where they were before.  I feel bad for those beliebers that got caught up in it, they are living on hype & hopium that will slowly dwindle over time.

[SERVERIA]

Maybe next time they will learn from this?

Hardly, for many of them it's like herd instinct - it's enough to see someone sell and price going down and they start to panic and sell like crazy.

[JayJuanGee]

In any event, even if the manipulative dump is over, we could still get caught in some additional downwards and maybe even more likely a kind of consolidation period for several weeks, no?

Yes and yes. Pumpers ultimately just want to extract more fiat $$$ from easily swayed n00bs. So the excitement surrounding the ETF is gone, this bump is over and we will consolidate sideways-ish for a long while.

The pumpers have plenty more $$$ to extract in the alt market for at least 6-8 months, maybe a year, as they slowly walk their bubble markets back down to where they were before.  I feel bad for those beliebers that got caught up in it, they are living on hype & hopium that will slowly dwindle over time.

It seems that I don't have as much certainty as you regarding what is going to happen.

I could see a lot of this playing out over a few weeks to even a few months, but 6-12 months seem to be a bit of a stretch, even though such a timeline is not beyond the realm of possibilities.

Also, I was considering the bottom to largely be in, but I could see the possibility of a further dip into the $800s..

What are you considering as this current upcoming consolidation range, from $800 to $1,100 or something more extreme?

[DeathAngel]

Maybe next time they will learn from this?

Hardly, for many of them it's like herd instinct - it's enough to see someone sell and price going down and they start to panic and sell like crazy.

People have no patience. Not many people get rich very quickly from one investment. Buy & HODL for a few years, why does everybody want it NOW.

Just carry on with your day job & HODL, you might get a nice surprise in a few years.

[Biro Bob]

My bet we're back in 4 digits in less than 24h

Strange. I never posted that.

U did. Fact.

Was actually quoted by Serverina https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg18339289#msg18339289

[Torque]

I could see a lot of this playing out over a few weeks to even a few months, but 6-12 months seem to be a bit of a stretch, even though such a timeline is not beyond the realm of possibilities.

I thought that a Bitcoin downturn (aka after bubble pop) couldn't possibly go longer than 6-8 months. Until I experienced the slow, meandering, up and down, soul-crushing 18-month long Bitcoin bear market.  The higher the pump goes (esp. with extended margin pump in a relatively small market), the longer the whale traders can draw it out and walk it down, with many highs and lows along the way.

Please note that I don't think this applies to the Bitcoin market right now, as it didn't go that high, so there wasn't as much FOMO craziness like there was in 2013. So the bottom will be found alot sooner. Now the alt market on the other hand... phew.  They are screwed.

Also, I was considering the bottom to largely be in, but I could see the possibility of a further dip into the $800s..

What are you considering as this current upcoming consolidation range, from $800 to $1,100 or something more extreme?

I definitely wouldn't rule out consolidating as low as 800-ish. But who knows. The shorts usually can short it down pretty low if they have control and no one supplies the buying pressure. But miners will start to bleed money any lower than that.  Anyways I think the whales (miners? traders?) play both sides, I mean hell, they are not going to completely kill the golden goose, are they?

[york780]

My bet we're back in 4 digits in less than 24h

Strange. I never posted that.

U did. Fact.

Was actually quoted by Serverina https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg18339289#msg18339289

Good, you are very very sharp. My bad. 

[JayJuanGee]

I could see a lot of this playing out over a few weeks to even a few months, but 6-12 months seem to be a bit of a stretch, even though such a timeline is not beyond the realm of possibilities.

I thought that a Bitcoin downturn (aka after bubble pop) couldn't possibly go longer than 6-8 months. Until I experienced the slow, meandering, up and down, soul-crushing 18-month long Bitcoin bear market.  The higher the pump goes (esp. with extended margin pump in a relatively small market), the longer the whale traders can draw it out and walk it down, with many highs and lows along the way.

Please note that I don't think this applies to the Bitcoin market right now, as it didn't go that high, so there wasn't as much FOMO craziness like there was in 2013. So the bottom will be found alot sooner. Now the alt market on the other hand... phew.  They are screwed.

Also, I was considering the bottom to largely be in, but I could see the possibility of a further dip into the $800s..

What are you considering as this current upcoming consolidation range, from $800 to $1,100 or something more extreme?

I definitely wouldn't rule out consolidating as low as 800-ish. But who knows. The shorts usually can short it down pretty low if they have control and no one supplies the buying pressure. But miners will start to bleed money any lower than that.  Anyways I think the whales (miners? traders?) play both sides, I mean hell, they are not going to completely kill the golden goose, are they?

Even though from time to time, I might get on your case regarding some of your other "manipulation theories," currently we seem to be on a very similar page in terms of our current thinking in regards to some of the price dynamics, motivations and considerations of some of the important movers and shakers in this crypto space.

Generally, I agree with you (and maybe even specifically) that upon retrospect, the BTC "bubble" of 2013 had much more potential for a severe and enduring correction - yet to the extent that there could be a bit of a BTC "bubble" this time around, the reality of that kind of characterization is much less apparent - especially, in part, due to the fact that the price rise from below $200 to $1350 took a bit more than 18 months to play out - and even with bitcoin having a hell-of-a-lot stronger fundamentals than it had in 2013.

One thing that all of us bitcoiners need to keep in mind is that bitcoin remains a very immature product, and even though FUDsters like to attempt to clump the price dynamics of bitcoin in with various alts, the fact of the matter is that we should not really attempt to treat bitcoin as if it were a mature technology - so in that regard, we continue to have (whether we like it or not) a very likely ongoing pressure of s-curve new technology adoption.  So, even reasonably, if we expect that there could be some need or even technical requirement for additional correction - the actual technical limitations of the bottom might be higher than we believe them to be in part because of the dynamics of continued adoption and networking effects of these kinds of s curve paradigm shifting technologies.

So, Torque, I cannot really discount anything that you are saying, except maybe to suggest that some of your discussion did not directly address the effects of the underlying s-curve new adoption type considerations.

[tk3609]

Looks like we are going to have some consolidation phase now, at least for a couple of days before we decide new direction.

[Torque]

So, Torque, I cannot really discount anything that you are saying, except maybe to suggest that some of your discussion did not directly address the effects of the underlying s-curve new adoption type considerations.

My discussion didn't include anything about S-curve adoption, because I don't believe that we are anything near that type of adoption yet.  It could literally be 20-30 years away still.  Or never.  I'm not convinced it'll ever happen. Because the cost-benefit vs. ease of use factor of Bitcoin has yet to even coming close to revealing itself to the Average Joe public.

Right now it's just a really small, really niche, really geeky small cap investment vehicle. And regulations/hassles surrounding cryptocurrencies could actually get worse over time instead of better.

[JayJuanGee]

So, Torque, I cannot really discount anything that you are saying, except maybe to suggest that some of your discussion did not directly address the effects of the underlying s-curve new adoption type considerations.

My discussion didn't include anything about S-curve adoption, because I don't believe that we are anything near that type of adoption yet.  It could literally be 20-30 years away still.  Or never.  I'm not convinced it'll ever happen. Because the cost-benefit vs. ease of use factor of Bitcoin has yet to even coming close to revealing itself to the Average Joe public.

Right now it's just a really small, really niche, really geeky small cap investment vehicle. And regulations/hassles surrounding cryptocurrencies could actually get worse over time instead of better.

Thanks for that clarification, and even though you and I may not agree on the actual existence of such a s-curve adoption dynamic, believing that such a thing is a current dynamic or not remains a reality that can change perspectives in various scenarios... so maybe my belief of the existence of such a s-curve dynamic in bitcoin causes me to be a bit more bullish about bitcoin (in some regards) than you. 

I doubt that it really matters too much about whether either one of us is more correct than the other, so long as each of us can recognize and attempt to tailor our own investment choices/allocations/strategies according to our views.

[Killerpotleaf]

i've been talking about this for months.
http://www.coindesk.com/charts-determining-ideal-block-size-bitcoin/
see the last 2 sections:
Miner revenue
The ideal block size for users
 

poeple need to understand this, and fears of ballooning blocksize killing bitcoin's decentralization will be eliminated

Yeah, thanks Adam, the article pretty much confirms what we already have with 1MB block limit today:

"1 MB blocks currently has kept pace with network demand so far, despite undesirable delays in transaction processing times and expensive fees during congested time." - We have this with 1MB today

"The most optimal block size to maximize miner's revenues is any size small enough to congest the network which is around 95% filled or more [which >80% *only* happens during frenzied trading periods, NOT real-world everyday buying transactions]. Getting congestion and an onset of "leap frogging" fees scenario between users would be the optimal miners game to play." - We have this with 1MB today

"The transaction confirmation times start to suffer when blocks are above 80% filled [which only happens during frenzied trading periods, NOT real-world everyday buying transactions. Just go look at the mempool now]. At this level, fees are reasonable but not exorbitant, but not too cheap to substantially impact the security model of bitcoin as the block reward subsidy diminishes in future years." - We have this with 1MB today

So what is your point again??

my point is that there is a strong incentive for miners to keep blocks small.
(i mean imagine when block subsidy is less important then block fee, the incentive to maximize fee revenue is huge.)
so we dont need to fear about miners creating blocks that are out-of-control-Big, thats not profitable for them.

1.2MB might be more appropriate today and 3MB in a year or two, when FEE Paying TX demand triples.

a fixed limit can not yield a balanced fee market, only briefly will the static limit be optimal.