Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Cassius]

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If segwit has not activated by the end of one retarget period after 15 November 2017, segwit will cease to be eligible for activation.

So we have time until November to reach 2k$ or higher, then doom (because the fuckin' miners won't let Segwit happen)... good to know.

no segwit means crash? Or fork? Or both? Man why is there always something to screw the btc price

It's a big ask, and I can't see it happening. But we'll know it's dead well before the deadline, so it won't affect the market.

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[york780]

Yes perhaps. I dont expect a big crash anymore. Looks like we wont move for quite some time now. They cant force a break out and there is to much support to let a crash occur. This looks like 2015/2016 all over again. I think that it is time to load guys.

[Arcteryx]

Can't believe i missed the dip below $990 this morning.

Now that would of been epic buy if I was awake that early that is.
It was over before you can say BU who's you daddy?

[gembitz]

50% vs 33%

^unlimited winning? lol nerd yorkers going to be pissed~ :-D

[york780]

50% vs 33%

^unlimited winning? lol nerd yorkers going to be pissed~ :-D

As long as the price wont break the 800$ i am never going to be pissed. 

[bitserve]

How is it even possible that BU has got 50% if all the people on this forum hate it? Are the miners those 50% or do i miss a whole lot of BU supporters?

They do not. BU has 38.6% vs SegWit 28.2% see https://coin.dance/blocks

ah thanks! But what happens if we just stay with CORE and dont use BU nor SegWit? Would the price stagnate because of no scaling solution found?

BU=Inmediate price down (less than half)
Segwit=Inmediate price UP (maybe double)
Nothing=Stagnation with long term downtrend

Just my opinion....

[Ted E. Bare]

Long term downtrend in case of the scaling not being addressed is unlikely. We are still talking about the biggest, most secure and most proven blockchain. The bitcoin project will definitely become more valuable in the upcoming years.

[bitserve]

Long term downtrend in case of the scaling not being addressed is unlikely. We are still talking about the biggest, most secure and most proven blockchain. The bitcoin project will definitely become more valuable in the upcoming years.

And that's because I think it is unlikely the scaling problem won't be addressed. The situation is already heated enough as to assume it will be addressed before end of year. If it wasn't then we would have a real problem.

[European Central Bank]

And that's because I think it is unlikely the scaling problem won't be addressed. The situation is already heated enough as to assume it will be addressed before end of year. If it wasn't then we would have a real problem.

or you could look at it the other way and perceive that a fork back down is an endorsement for core to carry on as they are. they can point to their solution and say the only thing holding it back is miners. those miners will also know that forcing through a fork ain't gonna go down well.

more deadlock but reinforced by recent events this time. i really hope not though.

[bitserve]

And that's because I think it is unlikely the scaling problem won't be addressed. The situation is already heated enough as to assume it will be addressed before end of year. If it wasn't then we would have a real problem.

or you could look at it the other way and perceive that a fork back down is an endorsement for core to carry on as they are. they can point to their solution and say the only thing holding it back is miners. those miners will also know that forcing through a fork ain't gonna go down well.

more deadlock. i really hope not though.

I am speculating on miners finally coming back to their senses and start signaling for segwit activation. The ball is now on Jihan BU's court.

[European Central Bank]

I am speculating on miners finally coming back to their senses and start signaling for segwit activation. The ball is now on Jihan BU's court.

i believe that's unlikely myself. until recently most miners didn't signal for anything other than the status quo.

what do you think would convince him to do so?

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

No one has ever said Jihan Wu is not smart. I have a hard time believing he does not realize that Layer 2 solutions will result in increased fees for miners, not decreased. Wonder what his end game really is.

[European Central Bank]

I have a hard time believing he does not realize that Layer 2 solutions will result in increased fees for miners, not decreased.

i think providing a test version or thorough demonstration of some of this second layer stuff would clear a lot of things up and maybe open enough eyes.

i've read a bunch about lightning networks. i still don't really know what it'll mean for the average user or miner.

maybe what the miners are objecting to is voting for something that very few people actually know anything about. everyone knows what a bigger block does, or rather the theory of them, as long it doesn't break bitcoin. i'm sure there'd be some unintended effects with them too.

[bitserve]

I am speculating on miners finally coming back to their senses and start signaling for segwit activation. The ball is now on Jihan BU's court.

i believe that's unlikely myself. until recently most miners didn't signal for anything other than the status quo.

what do you think would convince him to do so?

Several factors:

- He has made an strategically wrong move when he decided to start signaling BU making him personally (and ANTMINER) in the focus of this mess. Now all the darts are going to him instead of CORE. He is considered responsible of this situation and everyone is expecting him to solve the mess he has created. And BU is no solution but a bigger mess (as recent bugs and horrible public opinion is demonstrating).

If a HF occurs because of BU, he will be the scapegoat. SO he better avoid it now.

- Unless he is much more insane and obtuse than I would think he is, he should realise he has much more to gain making himself the SOLUTION of this deadlock instead of the problem. He could even be the "hero" if he know how to "sell" it.

- He can hold for some time his mined coins, then start signaling for segwit, then sell after the big spike upwards (=profit).

- The status quo was, until recently, the logical position as miners. For them it is better 1MB blocksize than higher blocksize. When they say otherwise they are just lying. But 1MB is not sustainable anymore, not for much longer.

- BU is not gonna happen. Not after the recent events.

- CORE is not going to increase the blocksize just now. Not BEFORE Segwit.

- There is a high probability that Litecoin will activate Segwit soon. Increasing the chances that Bitcoin follows next.

So... Only logical outcome is Segwit, and if that's gonna happen, it's better to be a promoter than keep fighting against it.

[European Central Bank]

i hope it all pans out that way.

but perhaps segwit and litecoin is now directly influenced by bitcoin players who see it as a proxy. their activation is flat too.

[bitserve]

I have a hard time believing he does not realize that Layer 2 solutions will result in increased fees for miners, not decreased.

i think providing a test version or thorough demonstration of some of this second layer stuff would clear a lot of things up and maybe open enough eyes.

i've read a bunch about lightning networks. i still don't really know what it'll mean for the average user or miner.

maybe what the miners are objecting to is voting for something that very few people actually know anything about. everyone knows what a bigger block does, or rather the theory of them, as long it doesn't break bitcoin. i'm sure there'd be some unintended effects with them too.

For the average user:

- Alternative to use either on-chain transactions (just as now) or side-chain ones.
- When using side-chain/LN/L2 whatever: Lower fees and, most importantly, INSTANT transactions/payments.

FOr the miners:

- On launch.. mostly the same revenue from fees as now.
- Once the market develops, maybe a bit higher fees and, more important, as Bitcoin grows the price should do so = higher revenue from mined coins.

Also, nothing stops mining pools/miners to run L2 hubs as a side business.

[york780]

i hope it all pans out that way.

but perhaps segwit and litecoin is now directly influenced by bitcoin players who see it as a proxy. their activation is flat too.

SegWit hasnt been activated on litecoin yet right?

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

I am speculating on miners finally coming back to their senses and start signaling for segwit activation. The ball is now on Jihan BU's court.

i believe that's unlikely myself. until recently most miners didn't signal for anything other than the status quo.

what do you think would convince him to do so?

Several factors:

- He has made an strategically wrong move when he decided to start signaling BU making him personally (and ANTMINER) in the focus of this mess. Now all the darts are going to him instead of CORE. He is considered responsible of this situation and everyone is expecting him to solve the mess he has created. And BU is no solution but a bigger mess (as recent bugs and horrible public opinion is demonstrating).

If a HF occurs because of BU, he will be the scapegoat. SO he better avoid it now.

- Unless he is much more insane and obtuse than I would think he is, he should realise he has much more to gain making himself the SOLUTION of this deadlock instead of the problem. He could even be the "hero" if he know how to "sell" it.

- He can hold for some time his mined coins, then start signaling for segwit, then sell after the big spike upwards (=profit).

- The status quo was, until recently, the logical position as miners. For them it is better 1MB blocksize than higher blocksize. When they say otherwise they are just lying. But 1MB is not sustainable anymore, not for much longer.

- BU is not gonna happen. Not after the recent events.

- CORE is not going to increase the blocksize just now. Not BEFORE Segwit.

- There is a high probability that Litecoin will activate Segwit soon. Increasing the chances that Bitcoin follows next.

So... Only logical outcome is Segwit, and if that's gonna happen, it's better to be a promoter than keep fighting against it.

You make some well reasoned points. However Litecoin is lagging Bitcoin in SegWit adoption according to https://twitter.com/Softforks

[bitserve]

I am speculating on miners finally coming back to their senses and start signaling for segwit activation. The ball is now on Jihan BU's court.

i believe that's unlikely myself. until recently most miners didn't signal for anything other than the status quo.

what do you think would convince him to do so?

Several factors:

- He has made an strategically wrong move when he decided to start signaling BU making him personally (and ANTMINER) in the focus of this mess. Now all the darts are going to him instead of CORE. He is considered responsible of this situation and everyone is expecting him to solve the mess he has created. And BU is no solution but a bigger mess (as recent bugs and horrible public opinion is demonstrating).

If a HF occurs because of BU, he will be the scapegoat. SO he better avoid it now.

- Unless he is much more insane and obtuse than I would think he is, he should realise he has much more to gain making himself the SOLUTION of this deadlock instead of the problem. He could even be the "hero" if he know how to "sell" it.

- He can hold for some time his mined coins, then start signaling for segwit, then sell after the big spike upwards (=profit).

- The status quo was, until recently, the logical position as miners. For them it is better 1MB blocksize than higher blocksize. When they say otherwise they are just lying. But 1MB is not sustainable anymore, not for much longer.

- BU is not gonna happen. Not after the recent events.

- CORE is not going to increase the blocksize just now. Not BEFORE Segwit.

- There is a high probability that Litecoin will activate Segwit soon. Increasing the chances that Bitcoin follows next.

So... Only logical outcome is Segwit, and if that's gonna happen, it's better to be a promoter than keep fighting against it.

You make some well reasoned points. However Litecoin is lagging Bitcoin in SegWit adoption according to https://twitter.com/Softforks

But you must take into account that it was only a month ago that it was possible to signal for Segwit (http://www.coindesk.com/litecoin-moves-to-adopt-bitcoins-segwit-scaling-upgrade/)

And Litecoin mining pools are organised differently as in Bitcoin. Charlie Lee explains it:

 
Charlie Lee‏Verified account @SatoshiLite Mar 21

@jmoarg Most of the Chinese pools act as one unit. So they either all for it or all against it. So it can happen quickly. I'm working on it.

It is not that Litecoin *needs* Segwit for its increased TPS, but it fixes transaction malleability among other fixes plus it could mean some pump to its price... so why not? Litecoin has nothing to lose and something to gain.

Also, the threshold for Segwit activation in Litecoin is 75% instead of 95% as in Bitcoin.

[Cassius]

95% hashrate activation seems crazy. I can't understand why they ever thought that was going to happen.