Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

If one guy thinks he has that much pull in a crypto community (or tries to have), then it still is truly a small and insignificant economic market.

and mr wu our mining friend doesn't? they were on the verge of hitting 75% until he showed up once again. and the key words are user activated.

Just further proof that the economies of *all* these cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin included, are still insignificantly small. But hopefully one day that won't be the case as things before more distributed over time.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin rises again as more alts crash.

Further proof that 'The Great Altcoin Bait-n-Switch Pump of 2017' was a complete farce.  Feel sorry for those n00bs that got taken, but at least they'll learn a hard lesson.  

Even though there is some small evidence of inverse relationships, I have not seen alts as rekt, yet.

I don't really invest in any alts, except I have a tiny bit in ETC and XMR (less than 2% of my total crypto)... so I don't have too much of an attachment to the performance of any of these alts, .... but none of the higher cap ones are really crashing - including ETH, DASH, ZEC or LTC

And they won't crash, not like that. It'll be a slow, painful, 'down, back up, and then more down' degradation road that will last for 6-12 months, maybe longer.  But the end result is the same.  Check back on them at the end of the year, people will be amazed how far down they can fall.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin stays honey badger. I still predict a ~1600 target by years end.  I guess we shall see.

I agree with you overall in terms of the likely failure of the alt coins, and that they are largely used as pump and dumps.  I suppose I am just quibbling in regards to your dramatic presentation - and probably such quibbling is done in vain, since I cannot really have too much of an effect on that.

As you were, soldier.    

[HI-TEC99]

$1215 now at Bitstamp. Let´s see if price starts the new week above 1200 and goes towards $1300 next twoo weeks.

The price pumped over $100 after last weekend, and if that pattern holds it could pump up to over $1300 by the end of next weekend. I'll be happy even if it goes sideways.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

$1215 now at Bitstamp. Let´s see if price starts the new week above 1200 and goes towards $1300 next twoo weeks.

The price pumped over $100 after last weekend, and if that pattern holds it could pump up to over $1300 by the end of next weekend. I'll be happy even if it goes sideways.

I'd be happy with a bit of sideways action in the 1200's too. Consolidation is a good thing.

[yefi]

I don't regret selling out a decent portion of my stack given the problems I foresee ahead, but I'll admit the Old Man is exceeding my expectations.

[European Central Bank]

what do people make of this?

https://twitter.com/lightningasic/status/850351212536803328

it's saying the chinese national grid is now inspecting people who buy power direct from power plants which is illegal and not the national grid, which is.

i dunno if this is huge or nothing or another government assertion of control. it seems a bit strange that power plants would be able to siphon stuff off on the side but i've long given up trying to figure out chinese practices.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't regret selling out a decent portion of my stack given the problems I foresee ahead, but I'll admit the Old Man is exceeding my expectations.

What do you mean by decent?

I am of the same conclusion regarding the performance being quite a bit greater than I had expected... but I am too chicken shit to sell any kind of "decent" amounts. 

Right now, I feel a little bit oversold because I have about 10% of my BTC allocated funds in cash.. I would feel a little bit better at 8% cash - however, I understand the feeling, and if the price suddenly goes down, then I wished I would have had 12% or greater in cash in order to be able to buy back.

[deepcolderwallet]

Time to fulfill Afrikoin's prophecy.
I'm already sold out and waiting for $750.

Not 100% on 750 but I'm in fiat unless it pops up convincingly through those walls. It's been a bit of a slow grind down so we'll see where it bottoms out. I hope Africoin is correct.

You playing your whole investment on down?

Wow!!!!  If so, you sound like an irrational gambler.

Don't judge my rationality, bro.

$ 1200 was a pretty sale, soon it'll be time to rebuy

[deepcolderwallet]

Time to fulfill Afrikoin's prophecy.
I'm already sold out and waiting for $750.

Are you rich yet?? XDDD

Not even close 

[JayJuanGee]

Time to fulfill Afrikoin's prophecy.
I'm already sold out and waiting for $750.

Not 100% on 750 but I'm in fiat unless it pops up convincingly through those walls. It's been a bit of a slow grind down so we'll see where it bottoms out. I hope Africoin is correct.

You playing your whole investment on down?

Wow!!!!  If so, you sound like an irrational gambler.

Don't judge my rationality, bro.

$ 1200 was a pretty sale, soon it'll be time to rebuy

There could be some ways to rationally set up trades that bet 100% of your holdings, but to me, I am having difficulties imagining such, even in the hypothetical.

Sounds like a bit crazy kind of rationality to bet all in one direction that does not prepare for the possibility of the other direction in a system that is far from having probabilities of anywhere near 100% in either direction at any given time.

If you, or anyone else is able to explain a rational approach for such betting, the I would surely like to attempt to receive such edumacation.

[Dammitt]

If you stay at these levels this month, I think there may be a rise in next May. But I think if I tell it from my own perspective, it can not protect this level much. It seems like we can see levels like $ 900 in a short while.

[bitserve]

Time to fulfill Afrikoin's prophecy.
I'm already sold out and waiting for $750.

Not 100% on 750 but I'm in fiat unless it pops up convincingly through those walls. It's been a bit of a slow grind down so we'll see where it bottoms out. I hope Africoin is correct.

You playing your whole investment on down?

Wow!!!!  If so, you sound like an irrational gambler.

Don't judge my rationality, bro.

$ 1200 was a pretty sale, soon it'll be time to rebuy

There could be some ways to rationally set up trades that bet 100% of your holdings, but to me, I am having difficulties imagining such, even in the hypothetical.

Sounds like a bit crazy kind of rationality to bet all in one direction that does not prepare for the possibility of the other direction in a system that is far from having probabilities of anywhere near 100% in either direction at any given time.

If you, or anyone else is able to explain a rational approach for such betting, the I would surely like to attempt to receive such edumacation.

Are you aware that you are trying to rationalise against something that you are ALMOST doing? (there's not much difference between 90% and 100%).

I don't know if the price will go up or down.... just making a point about something I find a bit incoherent.

[numismatist]

If you stay at these levels this month, I think there may be a rise in next May. But I think if I tell it from my own perspective, it can not protect this level much. It seems like we can see levels like $ 900 in a short while.

Next twelve days 1100$ that's a lower support line ranging back almost 180 days ago. 800$ would rediscover a support line that began 9/2015 but got invalid around 10/17/16 a date when something fundamentally changed.

[Chevas Regal]

Can someone here suggest the reasons why the price suddenly reach to 1209+$ in few 7-8 hours? Is there chances that it will touch 1400$ in the continuing streak? I have few orders to put on some Altcoins, if the bitcoin is suggested to rise then i will cut down my buy orders for altcoin. Any suggestions?

previously when Bitcoins went to 1229$ I bought some altcoin @0.00009BTC , Just previous week i sold those altcoins @0.00031 , so it gave me a ~3.3 X profit.

[JayJuanGee]

Time to fulfill Afrikoin's prophecy.
I'm already sold out and waiting for $750.

Not 100% on 750 but I'm in fiat unless it pops up convincingly through those walls. It's been a bit of a slow grind down so we'll see where it bottoms out. I hope Africoin is correct.

You playing your whole investment on down?

Wow!!!!  If so, you sound like an irrational gambler.

Don't judge my rationality, bro.

$ 1200 was a pretty sale, soon it'll be time to rebuy

There could be some ways to rationally set up trades that bet 100% of your holdings, but to me, I am having difficulties imagining such, even in the hypothetical.

Sounds like a bit crazy kind of rationality to bet all in one direction that does not prepare for the possibility of the other direction in a system that is far from having probabilities of anywhere near 100% in either direction at any given time.

If you, or anyone else is able to explain a rational approach for such betting, the I would surely like to attempt to receive such edumacation.

Are you aware that you are trying to rationalise against something that you are ALMOST doing? (there's not much difference between 90% and 100%).

I don't know if the price will go up or down.... just making a point about something I find a bit incoherent.

I think that you are missing some points, possibly.

BTC constitutes less than 30% of all of my quasi-liquid investments, and within my BTC portfolio, I buy BTC on the way down and I sell BTC on the way up, and currently within my BTC portfolio I have about 90% in BTC and 10% in dollars.   That can still add up to a lot of funds in dollars.

If BTC prices go down 50%, I will still probably have nearly 98% of my funds in BTC, and I try to never run out of dollars in order to buy BTC on the way down (so I allocate small portions to continue to have dollars and kind of anticipate up and down volatility, rather than straight down).  Further, if BTC goes up 4x, I will still likely have more than 85% in BTC.. It is like raking off the profits, but still having lots of BTC and end up having lots of dollars too.

 Funny how it works like that.  I don't think you can accomplish anything similar with your investment by having 100% in dollars?   makes no sense to me.

Sure, I could allocate in different proportions, but my system seems to work pretty good, and it was even working good when my BTC balance was floating between 93% and 98% - however, recently, I had some of my own issues that caused me to have my current 90% allocation, which is a bit more lopsided towards dollars than my overall preference.  I am constantly selling on the way up and constantly buying on the way down and reconsidering - which direction to tweak - but I do not take radical moves such as selling anymore than 5% at a time, even though I could foresee maybe selling a bit higher of a proportion if the market might seem to call for such.

[Elwar]

The way I see the price movement now is that there is an underlying upward trend line that has a much lower price but due to the price having gone up for so long people are expecting that the price will continue rising at a good pace and are more willing to invest. If the price had been going down for the past year the current price would be down below that trend line by quite a bit.

With enough FUD to manage the expectations the price should continue going up at a reasonable pace no matter the news because the performance of the investment is so good.

If irrational exuberance kicked in and everyone thought that the new dawn of cryptocurrency across the world was about to occur with exponential price rises then we would definitely crash down and head into a downward cycle where people are dropping out just because of the direction of the price.

Having said that, my price point without the investment frenzy due to our current track record is about $900 currently. With that going up about $20 per month. I am not too hopeful that the price will go back down to there because by the time we get to another downward track record the underlying value (+$20 per month) would put us at current prices.

[JayJuanGee]

The way I see the price movement now is that there is an underlying upward trend line that has a much lower price but due to the price having gone up for so long people are expecting that the price will continue rising at a good pace and are more willing to invest. If the price had been going down for the past year the current price would be down below that trend line by quite a bit.

With enough FUD to manage the expectations the price should continue going up at a reasonable pace no matter the news because the performance of the investment is so good.

If irrational exuberance kicked in and everyone thought that the new dawn of cryptocurrency across the world was about to occur with exponential price rises then we would definitely crash down and head into a downward cycle where people are dropping out just because of the direction of the price.

Having said that, my price point without the investment frenzy due to our current track record is about $900 currently. With that going up about $20 per month. I am not too hopeful that the price will go back down to there because by the time we get to another downward track record the underlying value (+$20 per month) would put us at current prices.

There may be some truth in some of the price dynamics that you are describing - yet, I am not sure if what you are saying really accounts for s-curve adoption and networking effects. 

You seem to be attributing too much to supposed upward hype, which exists, but does not seem to exist with such clarity as you seem to be ascribing to it.

[Karartma1]

good morning sir the copyright people are trying sooo hard to stop bitcoin and file sharing ~ it's reaching epic battle mode ... they are trying to threaten legal action against their own customers ~ fekking cable companys are feeling the squeeze of peer-to-peer sharing and private (anonymous) bitcoin payment systems== they are sooo pissed ==gotta love it ! :-D //^weeeee

There's nothing they can do about the real New World Order and they know it. True globalism isn't governments or other corporations. It's decentralized worldwide networks of peers, i.e. true democracy.

A forward-thinking Torontonian named Marshall McLuhan wrote about the global village back in the 1960s, long before the internet. Now his prophecies are being fulfilled. The "information superhighway" has become more like a parking lot. The whole world is being paved over.

Napster was just the thin edge of the wedge. With each succeeding attempt to shut down p2p file sharing, they just made it stronger and more decentralized.

Their only line of attack against Bitcoin is the exchanges. In the days of Gox it was almost as easy as attacking Napster. Now multiple exchanges make them harder to attack. As more and more bitcoins are traded off-exchange by individuals, it gets harder and harder for them to interfere.

Even more important than them losing control over money and entertainment (bread and circuses?) is that they're losing control over the dissemination of information itself. I suppose they could attempt to censor the peer-community-generated content of Wikipedia but another less centralized platform would soon arise. Meanwhile people around the world are communicating more every day.

They can't stuff the cat back into the bag.

I have to quote this for reference. I completely agree with what you wrote. My only fear is that, historically speaking, when govs lose too much control over their institutions we have seen only one thing over and over again, which is war.
Power is not decentralized, nor is democrazy. We have a long way to get there eventually.

[r0ach]

Bitcoin rises again as more alts crash.

There is honestly nowhere for bitcoin to go without scalability.  Bitcoin is a currency, not money.  Low scalability is counterintuitive to how a currency functions.  A currency's value is entirely derived from flow not stock.  Bitcoin does not have value as a settlement network because being a store of value is the main required trait of a settlement system and there are FAR SUPERIOR stores of value that exist like gold and silver.  

The only question is at what transaction fee does it become mostly a settlement system and create a huge roadblock.  I think it will hit a hard wall around $1-$2 transaction fees, but it's possible black market actors like drug dealers can bear higher fees, so who knows when the wall will be hit, but for the general public, I'm guessing $1-2.

[edgar]

good morning sir the copyright people are trying sooo hard to stop bitcoin and file sharing ~ it's reaching epic battle mode ... they are trying to threaten legal action against their own customers ~ fekking cable companys are feeling the squeeze of peer-to-peer sharing and private (anonymous) bitcoin payment systems== they are sooo pissed ==gotta love it ! :-D //^weeeee

There's nothing they can do about the real New World Order and they know it. True globalism isn't governments or other corporations. It's decentralized worldwide networks of peers, i.e. true democracy.

A forward-thinking Torontonian named Marshall McLuhan wrote about the global village back in the 1960s, long before the internet. Now his prophecies are being fulfilled. The "information superhighway" has become more like a parking lot. The whole world is being paved over.

Napster was just the thin edge of the wedge. With each succeeding attempt to shut down p2p file sharing, they just made it stronger and more decentralized.

Their only line of attack against Bitcoin is the exchanges. In the days of Gox it was almost as easy as attacking Napster. Now multiple exchanges make them harder to attack. As more and more bitcoins are traded off-exchange by individuals, it gets harder and harder for them to interfere.

Even more important than them losing control over money and entertainment (bread and circuses?) is that they're losing control over the dissemination of information itself. I suppose they could attempt to censor the peer-community-generated content of Wikipedia but another less centralized platform would soon arise. Meanwhile people around the world are communicating more every day.

They can't stuff the cat back into the bag.

I have to quote this for reference. I completely agree with what you wrote. My only fear is that, historically speaking, when govs lose too much control over their institutions we have seen only one thing over and over again, which is war.
Power is not decentralized, nor is democrazy. We have a long way to get there eventually.

i was going to say they may not be able to stuff the cat back in the bag but they can set fire to all the bags and drown all the cats along with criminalizing (with force) the possession of bags & cloth and cat & kittens.

we're not dealing with the kind of entity that just gives up...