Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ivomm]

The rise of btc with 10% at bitfinex and poloniex since the last week with regard to usdt is fake, since in kraken usdt dropped by 8-10% to the fiat usd. The whales are trying to bite the 1%-profit daily traders so the whales can withdraw in time to their bank accounts before the big drop. They are still trying to delude the traders that there is a chance bitfinex can be saved. The truth is it is doomed and this was planned a long time ago. These two exchanges (btc-e and biftiniex) are well known for their shady owners and fears of exit scam. It is a matter of days, may be hours before the bad news is announced. If the so called 'bad news" of tightening control of chinese exchanges, sec denial and bu fork, lead to 40% drop of price, imagine the damage to the price caused by real bad news of the imminent bankruptcy of one (possibly) two of the largest exchanges. This may lead to panic withdrawals from other exchanges, so nobody can predict how deep will be the new emerging crisis. Of course the btc (now usd) whales will buy very low just to sell a year or two at a much higher level.

[1715417090]

1715417090

[1715417090]

1715417090

[1715417090]

1715417090

[1715417090]

1715417090

[1715417090]

1715417090

[becoin]

The rise of btc with 10% at bitfinex and poloniex since the last week with regard to usdt is fake, since in kraken usdt dropped by 8-10% to the fiat usd. The whales are trying to bite the 1%-profit daily traders so the whales can withdraw in time to their bank accounts before the big drop. They are still trying to delude the traders that there is a chance bitfinex can be saved. The truth is it is doomed and this was planned a long time ago. These two exchanges (btc-e and biftiniex) are well known for their shady owners and fears of exit scam. It is a matter of days, may be hours before the bad news is announced. If the so called 'bad news" of tightening control of chinese exchanges, sec denial and bu fork, lead to 40% drop of price, imagine the damage to the price caused by real bad news of the imminent bankruptcy of one (possibly) two of the largest exchanges. This may lead to panic withdrawals from other exchanges, so nobody can predict how deep will be the new emerging crisis. Of course the btc (now usd) whales will buy very low just to sell a year or two at a much higher level.

Why would Bitfinex bankruptcy cause bitcoin price drop?
Why would withdrawals from other exchanges cause bitcoin price drop?

You're dreaming, buddy.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see I didn't miss much by spending yesterday being hung over.

We had a mini-dip and we're right back to the assault on $1250... currently $1246 (Bitcoinaverage).

It was nice to see $1200 support hold tight. People who talk about $1000 are deluding themselves.

Go Bitcoin go.

[Meuh6879]

Its so quiet here rightnow.

Guys, you there??

on my bike.
at the beach.
run for my life.


Revolution Serie.

[bitserve]

The rise of btc with 10% at bitfinex and poloniex since the last week with regard to usdt is fake, since in kraken usdt dropped by 8-10% to the fiat usd. The whales are trying to bite the 1%-profit daily traders so the whales can withdraw in time to their bank accounts before the big drop. They are still trying to delude the traders that there is a chance bitfinex can be saved. The truth is it is doomed and this was planned a long time ago. These two exchanges (btc-e and biftiniex) are well known for their shady owners and fears of exit scam. It is a matter of days, may be hours before the bad news is announced. If the so called 'bad news" of tightening control of chinese exchanges, sec denial and bu fork, lead to 40% drop of price, imagine the damage to the price caused by real bad news of the imminent bankruptcy of one (possibly) two of the largest exchanges. This may lead to panic withdrawals from other exchanges, so nobody can predict how deep will be the new emerging crisis. Of course the btc (now usd) whales will buy very low just to sell a year or two at a much higher level.

I have started (since yesterday) to leverage short USDT on Kraken as a means of hedging. *IF* USDT/Bitfinex is in deep shit, I will recoup my losses on BTC/Other coins on the sucess of my short. If everything is OK, I will win on my main investment and only lose a few percent on my short against USDT (as in the worst case USDT won't ever be worth more than 1:1). Win-Win.

[Iranus]

The rise of btc with 10% at bitfinex and poloniex since the last week with regard to usdt is fake, since in kraken usdt dropped by 8-10% to the fiat usd. The whales are trying to bite the 1%-profit daily traders so the whales can withdraw in time to their bank accounts before the big drop. They are still trying to delude the traders that there is a chance bitfinex can be saved. The truth is it is doomed and this was planned a long time ago. These two exchanges (btc-e and biftiniex) are well known for their shady owners and fears of exit scam. It is a matter of days, may be hours before the bad news is announced. If the so called 'bad news" of tightening control of chinese exchanges, sec denial and bu fork, lead to 40% drop of price, imagine the damage to the price caused by real bad news of the imminent bankruptcy of one (possibly) two of the largest exchanges. This may lead to panic withdrawals from other exchanges, so nobody can predict how deep will be the new emerging crisis. Of course the btc (now usd) whales will buy very low just to sell a year or two at a much higher level.

Why would Bitfinex bankruptcy cause bitcoin price drop?
Why would withdrawals from other exchanges cause bitcoin price drop?

You're dreaming, buddy.

Actually it would cause a price drop.  If Bitfinex went bankrupt people wouldn't be withdrawing anymore from the exchange because the exchange wouldn't let them anymore, so the amount that will be withdrawn from the exchange is pretty close to what has already been withdrawn based on what people currently believe about the future of Bitfinex.  So there will be some withdrawals before they go bankrupt, but not loads.

What has to outweigh the amount of withdrawals from Bitfinex to other exchanges is the amount of money that isn't put into Bitcoin because of fear of the exchanges scamming people.  It's safe to say that when Mt. Gox has already collapsed and Cryptsy has collapsed and yet another Bitcoin exchange is about to collapse that people will be increasingly scared of buying Bitcoin with fiat deposits into an exchange - that will stunt the price growth.

If USDT fails along with Bitfinex as well it'll only make it worse and could cause panic selloffs for a little while.  It won't be as extreme as people think but it'll be something.

[york780]

The rise of btc with 10% at bitfinex and poloniex since the last week with regard to usdt is fake, since in kraken usdt dropped by 8-10% to the fiat usd. The whales are trying to bite the 1%-profit daily traders so the whales can withdraw in time to their bank accounts before the big drop. They are still trying to delude the traders that there is a chance bitfinex can be saved. The truth is it is doomed and this was planned a long time ago. These two exchanges (btc-e and biftiniex) are well known for their shady owners and fears of exit scam. It is a matter of days, may be hours before the bad news is announced. If the so called 'bad news" of tightening control of chinese exchanges, sec denial and bu fork, lead to 40% drop of price, imagine the damage to the price caused by real bad news of the imminent bankruptcy of one (possibly) two of the largest exchanges. This may lead to panic withdrawals from other exchanges, so nobody can predict how deep will be the new emerging crisis. Of course the btc (now usd) whales will buy very low just to sell a year or two at a much higher level.

Why would Bitfinex bankruptcy cause bitcoin price drop?
Why would withdrawals from other exchanges cause bitcoin price drop?

You're dreaming, buddy.

Actually it would cause a price drop.  If Bitfinex went bankrupt people wouldn't be withdrawing anymore from the exchange because the exchange wouldn't let them anymore, so the amount that will be withdrawn from the exchange is pretty close to what has already been withdrawn based on what people currently believe about the future of Bitfinex.  So there will be some withdrawals before they go bankrupt, but not loads.

What has to outweigh the amount of withdrawals from Bitfinex to other exchanges is the amount of money that isn't put into Bitcoin because of fear of the exchanges scamming people.  It's safe to say that when Mt. Gox has already collapsed and Cryptsy has collapsed and yet another Bitcoin exchange is about to collapse that people will be increasingly scared of buying Bitcoin with fiat deposits into an exchange - that will stunt the price growth.

If USDT fails along with Bitfinex as well it'll only make it worse and could cause panic selloffs for a little while.  It won't be as extreme as people think but it'll be something.

The dip.

[Paashaas]

What will happen when Finex's cold-wallet starting to get empty, DOOM?

[york780]

What will happen when Finex's cold-wallet starting to get empty, DOOM?

Confirmed.

Looks like it keeps decreasing.

Who will be Bitfinex'ed ?


https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r

Bitfinished hahaa...

Ok back work

[becoin]

What will happen when Finex's cold-wallet starting to get empty, DOOM?

Finex's USD-bank wallet will get full. They will buy cheap bitcoins from other bitcoin exchanges. BOOM?

[bitserve]

What will happen when Finex's cold-wallet starting to get empty, DOOM?

Confirmed.

Bitfinex cold wallet cannot get empty. I mean, unless they are way beyond bankruptcy, they will never run out of Bitcoins when they can buy them OTC and sell to their users for a 10% premium. The same happens to USDT, they have sold them for $1 each, and now they can rebuy for almost $0.91. Genious.

[monsanto]

The rise of btc with 10% at bitfinex and poloniex since the last week with regard to usdt is fake, since in kraken usdt dropped by 8-10% to the fiat usd. The whales are trying to bite the 1%-profit daily traders so the whales can withdraw in time to their bank accounts before the big drop. They are still trying to delude the traders that there is a chance bitfinex can be saved. The truth is it is doomed and this was planned a long time ago. These two exchanges (btc-e and biftiniex) are well known for their shady owners and fears of exit scam. It is a matter of days, may be hours before the bad news is announced. If the so called 'bad news" of tightening control of chinese exchanges, sec denial and bu fork, lead to 40% drop of price, imagine the damage to the price caused by real bad news of the imminent bankruptcy of one (possibly) two of the largest exchanges. This may lead to panic withdrawals from other exchanges, so nobody can predict how deep will be the new emerging crisis. Of course the btc (now usd) whales will buy very low just to sell a year or two at a much higher level.

I have started (since yesterday) to leverage short USDT on Kraken as a means of hedging. *IF* USDT/Bitfinex is in deep shit, I will recoup my losses on BTC/Other coins on the sucess of my short. If everything is OK, I will win on my main investment and only lose a few percent on my short against USDT (as in the worst case USDT won't ever be worth more than 1:1). Win-Win.

Are there any circumstances at all where USDT could rise above one dollar? I'm trying to assess the risks involved. If it is absolutely impossible for it go more than a minuscule amount above a dollar then it seems like a foolproof strategy. However a pegged currency short squeezing above $1 is just the kinda crazy thing I'd keep my eye out for in these parts.

What will happen when Finex's cold-wallet starting to get empty, DOOM?

Seems to have stabilized in the 75k range over the past few days, but yeah, that would do it.

[bitserve]

The rise of btc with 10% at bitfinex and poloniex since the last week with regard to usdt is fake, since in kraken usdt dropped by 8-10% to the fiat usd. The whales are trying to bite the 1%-profit daily traders so the whales can withdraw in time to their bank accounts before the big drop. They are still trying to delude the traders that there is a chance bitfinex can be saved. The truth is it is doomed and this was planned a long time ago. These two exchanges (btc-e and biftiniex) are well known for their shady owners and fears of exit scam. It is a matter of days, may be hours before the bad news is announced. If the so called 'bad news" of tightening control of chinese exchanges, sec denial and bu fork, lead to 40% drop of price, imagine the damage to the price caused by real bad news of the imminent bankruptcy of one (possibly) two of the largest exchanges. This may lead to panic withdrawals from other exchanges, so nobody can predict how deep will be the new emerging crisis. Of course the btc (now usd) whales will buy very low just to sell a year or two at a much higher level.

I have started (since yesterday) to leverage short USDT on Kraken as a means of hedging. *IF* USDT/Bitfinex is in deep shit, I will recoup my losses on BTC/Other coins on the sucess of my short. If everything is OK, I will win on my main investment and only lose a few percent on my short against USDT (as in the worst case USDT won't ever be worth more than 1:1). Win-Win.

Are there any circumstances at all where USDT could rise above one dollar? I'm trying to assess the risks involved. If it is absolutely impossible for it go more than a minuscule amount above a dollar then it seems like a foolproof strategy. However a pegged currency short squeezing above $1 is just the kinda crazy thing I'd keep my eye out for in these parts.

Yes, it is not IMPOSSIBLE for USDT to be priced more than $1, but the probability is so minuscule I almost ignore it. The real risk right now, is if that it recovers from 0.9 to 1 that is a 10% loss. But I can accept it as a mean to hedge my main investment. Of course I am counting that in case it fails it could go several tens percent lower.

It's just a bet/hedge strategy, not a failproof investment, as such thing doesn't really exist

Also, I am only currently betting 3-5% of my trading funds on that bet, with a maximum target of around 10% depending how all this evolves.

[JayJuanGee]

What will happen when Finex's cold-wallet starting to get empty, DOOM?

Confirmed.

Looks like it keeps decreasing.

Who will be Bitfinex'ed ?


https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r

Bitfinished hahaa...

Ok back work

How much do we know that this wallet reflects bitfinex's bitcoin holdings?

I agree with the proposition that users are likely withdrawing bitcoin from bitfinex in higher degrees than they are depositing; however, bitfinex has been maintaining really decent trade volume too, so the supposed exit from Bitfinex has not seemed to have significantly negatively affected their trade volume.

[bitserve]

What will happen when Finex's cold-wallet starting to get empty, DOOM?

Confirmed.

Looks like it keeps decreasing.

Who will be Bitfinex'ed ?


https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r

Bitfinished hahaa...

Ok back work

How much do we know that this wallet reflects bitfinex's bitcoin holdings?

I agree with the proposition that users are likely withdrawing bitcoin from bitfinex in higher degrees than they are depositing; however, bitfinex has been maintaining really decent trade volume too, so the supposed exit from Bitfinex has not seemed to have significantly negatively affected their trade volume.

I can answer you both questions... even if the second is not really a question

1) We don't know. They might have more cold wallets. Also, they wouldnt even need to use their cold wallets as they can just buy Bitcoins OTC and sell them to users for a 10% premium. If they are not doing that already, the situation is even more scary that it appears to be.

2) If they were in deep shit, they would for sure do play all sort of games to hide that fact. Running bots to increase trading volume, or even just fake it is so easy you should never take that as proof of ANYTHING. There are two types of bankrupted companies/managers... the ones that do recognize it preventively even before it happens to avoid any sort of responsability (we know Bitfinex is not that type, as they SHOULD have done it right after the hack when the liabilities exceeded the assets)... and the ones that are already so deep in their shit that keep playing until they totally drown in their own shit.

[monsanto]

<snip>

I have started (since yesterday) to leverage short USDT on Kraken as a means of hedging. *IF* USDT/Bitfinex is in deep shit, I will recoup my losses on BTC/Other coins on the sucess of my short. If everything is OK, I will win on my main investment and only lose a few percent on my short against USDT (as in the worst case USDT won't ever be worth more than 1:1). Win-Win.

Are there any circumstances at all where USDT could rise above one dollar? I'm trying to assess the risks involved. If it is absolutely impossible for it go more than a minuscule amount above a dollar then it seems like a foolproof strategy. However a pegged currency short squeezing above $1 is just the kinda crazy thing I'd keep my eye out for in these parts.

Yes, it is not IMPOSSIBLE for USDT to be priced more than $1, but the probability is so minuscule I almost ignore it. The real risk right now, is if that it recovers from 0.9 to 1 that is a 10% loss. But I can accept it as a mean to hedge my main investment. Of course I am counting that in case it fails it could go several tens percent lower.

I guess as long as you keep minimal funds in your margin account it's a good plan (in case something crazy happens).

It's just a bet/hedge strategy, not a failproof investment, as such thing doesn't really exist

Good point. I assume one of the reasons for having this on kraken in the first place is it could shore up the tether price. It just seems odd to me because I haven't seen the ability to short things with price ceilings/pegs before. Maybe this is more common than I realize. It will be interesting to see how this whole thing plays out, that's for sure.

[bitserve]

<snip>

I have started (since yesterday) to leverage short USDT on Kraken as a means of hedging. *IF* USDT/Bitfinex is in deep shit, I will recoup my losses on BTC/Other coins on the sucess of my short. If everything is OK, I will win on my main investment and only lose a few percent on my short against USDT (as in the worst case USDT won't ever be worth more than 1:1). Win-Win.

Are there any circumstances at all where USDT could rise above one dollar? I'm trying to assess the risks involved. If it is absolutely impossible for it go more than a minuscule amount above a dollar then it seems like a foolproof strategy. However a pegged currency short squeezing above $1 is just the kinda crazy thing I'd keep my eye out for in these parts.

Yes, it is not IMPOSSIBLE for USDT to be priced more than $1, but the probability is so minuscule I almost ignore it. The real risk right now, is if that it recovers from 0.9 to 1 that is a 10% loss. But I can accept it as a mean to hedge my main investment. Of course I am counting that in case it fails it could go several tens percent lower.

I guess as long as you keep minimal funds in your margin account it's a good plan (in case something crazy happens).

It's just a bet/hedge strategy, not a failproof investment, as such thing doesn't really exist

Good point. I assume one of the reasons for having this on kraken in the first place is it could shore up the tether price. It just seems odd to me because I haven't seen the ability to short things with price ceilings/pegs before. Maybe this is more common than I realize. It will be interesting to see how this whole thing plays out, that's for sure.

I am doing it with my main Kraken account, but again I don't think a more than 10% loss is feasible in the worst case and also I am betting a relatively low amount that can be easily covered by my funds.

If I had to worry about extremely low probabilities that could happen I wouldnt even have any funds on any exchange because theres a really measurable probability of all the funds to be lost.

[york780]

Ok guys, who's dumping ?

Looks like Okcoin and Kraken to me.

Those fools.

Please stop it so that I can sleep peacefull tonight.

[Raja_MBZ]

Stable value of bitcoin for days... I don't like it!

Either get a big pump or a little dump, but at least lets have something. But of course, I prefer a big pump!

[JayJuanGee]

What will happen when Finex's cold-wallet starting to get empty, DOOM?

Confirmed.

Looks like it keeps decreasing.

Who will be Bitfinex'ed ?


https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r

Bitfinished hahaa...

Ok back work

How much do we know that this wallet reflects bitfinex's bitcoin holdings?

I agree with the proposition that users are likely withdrawing bitcoin from bitfinex in higher degrees than they are depositing; however, bitfinex has been maintaining really decent trade volume too, so the supposed exit from Bitfinex has not seemed to have significantly negatively affected their trade volume.

I can answer you both questions... even if the second is not really a question

1) We don't know. They might have more cold wallets. Also, they wouldnt even need to use their cold wallets as they can just buy Bitcoins OTC and sell them to users for a 10% premium. If they are not doing that already, the situation is even more scary that it appears to be.

2) If they were in deep shit, they would for sure do play all sort of games to hide that fact. Running bots to increase trading volume, or even just fake it is so easy you should never take that as proof of ANYTHING. There are two types of bankrupted companies/managers... the ones that do recognize it preventively even before it happens to avoid any sort of responsability (we know Bitfinex is not that type, as they SHOULD have done it right after the hack when the liabilities exceeded the assets)... and the ones that are already so deep in their shit that keep playing until they totally drown in their own shit.

I cannot really disagree with anything that you are saying, and I think that your response is fairly reasonable. 

Regarding 1), they would be pretty dumbass if they did not attempt to figure out a way to make some additional profits on the current 10% premium.

Regarding 2),   There could be more layers of financial irresponsibility, but it does seem that Bitfinex has at least attempted to employ some pretty sophisticated tools - yet maybe if we Bitfinoxed, then we would not recognize the level of their shenanigans, until quite a while after the fact - which was also kind of the case with GOX, too... I mean with GOX, they may have kind of thought that they had some methods to be able to attempt to handle the situation and to get matters under control while their whole situation continued to slip deeper and deeper into the red.