Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[r0ach]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1166428.msg13664554#msg13664554


Only 1,5 years ... and now, the same pattern repeat with SegWit adoption.
Choose wisely ... mathematic rules are just.

Very true. I was sympathetic to the idea of increasing block size until I saw a graphic showing it would reach 1tb for the blockchain to be stored in a computer, in case it would increase block size to 2mb.

Then I remembered Ethereum Mist which I had my computer turned on constantly for two weeks to download its blockchain, and it never completed it, making me drop it. And as you know, Ethereum is supported by big corporations, big banks, oligarchies, even Microsoft. Ethereum is very centralized and its creator dictates what happens in that network.

Then it occurred to me the external hd where I have the blockchain is a very old 640gb Samsung, with a usb 2.0 port. And it occurred to me I would never be able to run a bitcoin node again, if it were to increase block size, since 2mb would be only the beginning of a long centralization process.

Don't confuse decentralized and distributed.
https://medium.com/@johnblocke/decentralization-fetishism-is-hindering-bitcoins-progress-11cfa5c7964d

Decentralization is determined by the ability of the general public to be able to MINE BITCOIN, NOT run a fucking node!  Therefore it's COMPLETELY centralized.

[arklan]

so, to catch myself up and make sure i'm understanding right:

there's a group forking an altcoin (bitcoin cash) come august 1st. this bumps the block limit to 8 MB. any other changes?

what happened to bitcoin unlimited? are they a part of this BCC split?

just when i finally verify my account at bitstamp all this shit has to be going on... sigh.

[Gab0]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1166428.msg13664554#msg13664554


Only 1,5 years ... and now, the same pattern repeat with SegWit adoption.
Choose wisely ... mathematic rules are just.

Very true. I was sympathetic to the idea of increasing block size until I saw a graphic showing it would reach 1tb for the blockchain to be stored in a computer, in case it would increase block size to 2mb.

Then I remembered Ethereum Mist which I had my computer turned on constantly for two weeks to download its blockchain, and it never completed it, making me drop it. And as you know, Ethereum is supported by big corporations, big banks, oligarchies, even Microsoft. Ethereum is very centralized and its creator dictates what happens in that network.

Then it occurred to me the external hd where I have the blockchain is a very old 640gb Samsung, with a usb 2.0 port. And it occurred to me I would never be able to run a bitcoin node again, if it were to increase block size, since 2mb would be only the beginning of a long centralization process.

Don't confuse decentralized and distributed.
https://medium.com/@johnblocke/decentralization-fetishism-is-hindering-bitcoins-progress-11cfa5c7964d

Decentralization is determined by the ability of the general public to be able to MINE BITCOIN, NOT run a fucking node!  Therefore it's COMPLETELY centralized.

Troll, return after reading the article and try again.

[GreenBits]

The bitcoin market is in deep shit once the general public finds out Lightning Network isn't a valid scaling solution.  Sure, it works as a CENTRALIZED scaling solution, but not a decentralized one.  Not that the base bitcoin network itself is even decentralized in the first place.  

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, but on a long enough timeline, dumping bitcoin for silver (while silver is at the floor) is the best move you can make in the long run right now.  Sure, some idiot could pump BTC higher, but there is no valid scaling solution, and it's useless without scaling.  It's value prospect is also supposed to be based on decentralization, and it's not even decentralized either!  There's no god damn fundamentals for it anywhere!  It's all just a pump and dump scheme at this point.

I don't get this.  BTC doesn't have to be for buying your fucking coffee in the morning.  It can be more like the SDR or bank wires.  I envision it as a settlement structure for very large transactions.  It DOES NOT HAVE TO SCALE!  Use sidechains and altcoins to buy your goddamn starbucks...jesus, this isn't that hard folks.

Also, as someone with an Ag DCA just over $12 I really don't see current prices as a "floor"

Nice product placement for ZeroHedge though, I'll give you that.

Bitcoin has ZERO, I repeat, ZERO value as a settlement layer because there already exists far better settlement alternatives - noble metals (gold and silver).  This is why currencies were always derivatives of them in the past.  Bitcoin has built-in middle men (transaction validators) and counter party risk while metals DO NOT.  Bitcoin is a rent seeking usury system where miners expect to get a cut out of every transaction like the mafia while metals ARE NOT.  

You need to be a complete lunatic to believe bitcoin somehow has better fundamentals as a settlement system than metals.  Can you imagine issuing currencies as a derivative of bitcoin when bitcoin is already only a currency and not money in the first place? LOL.  For the the 500th time, bitcoin is a currency, not money, which is why it's called "cryptocurrency".  The value of currencies are derived from transaction flow, NOT stock.  

you seem like a good person to ask. what are your feelings on paper metal vs holding bullion? or better phrased, what is better to you, the liquidity of "token" gold/silver (silver is looking choice, btw) or the certainty of bullion? ive had the bright idea as of late to peg to a certain GLD/BTC orderbook instead of USD/BTC, my usual haunt. im figuring im not going to be subject to the run on Nubits/Tether than happens when the price moves. serious price movement usually unpegs it(Nubits/Tether) from USD, and you may end up buying it at a premium because the demand is so high.

im saying all that to say this; want your opinion on if im doing alright using digital gold as a safe haven from bitcoin volatility, or should I just cash out and actually buy some metal, and sit tight. I know ill have more growth potential with the digital gold, due to aforementioned liquidity, but silver/gold are pretty solid. like, bedrock solid.

never considered using the alts for "small" commerce. i do it, when I move funds between exchanges (its usually cheaper to covert to DOGE, pay a nothing withdrawal fee, and buy back into my desired coin). had never considered the implications of doing it as a feature, slick idea

[jojo69]

Bitcoin has ZERO, I repeat, ZERO value as a settlement layer because there already exists far better settlement alternatives - noble metals (gold and silver).  This is why currencies were always derivatives of them in the past.  Bitcoin has built-in middle men (transaction validators) and counter party risk while metals DO NOT.  Bitcoin is a rent seeking usury system where miners expect to get a cut out of every transaction like the mafia while metals ARE NOT.  

You need to be a complete lunatic to believe bitcoin somehow has better fundamentals as a settlement system than metals.  Can you imagine issuing currencies as a derivative of bitcoin when bitcoin is already only a currency and not money in the first place? LOL.  For the the 500th time, bitcoin is a currency, not money, which is why it's called "cryptocurrency".  The value of currencies are derived from transaction flow, NOT stock.  

You are, of course, welcome to your opinion, but I fail to see, unless you are going to sleep on top of your pallet of silver with an AK47 while it crosses the Pacific ocean, how physical delivery does not have counter party risk.

Don't get me wrong, huge physs fan here, if it weren't for that dammed boating accident we could get together and try and out macho each other curling our stacks, but yeah, I guess I am a lunatic...I think teleporting the equivalent value of that pallet in an hour or so, securely, does in fact have value.

[williamuk]

Don't confuse decentralized and distributed.
https://medium.com/@johnblocke/decentralization-fetishism-is-hindering-bitcoins-progress-11cfa5c7964d

Great piece thanks for sharing

[Paashaas]

Bitcoin has ZERO, I repeat, ZERO value as a settlement layer because there already exists far better settlement alternatives - noble metals (gold and silver).  

For a legendary newbie member you know little to nothing about Blockchain. You dont know what the differences are between Bicoin and altcoins ore you do know but shilling for gold and silver.

Bitcoins blockchain belongs to the 4th industrial revolution it contains tons of value as a settement layer.

[r0ach]

im saying all that to say this; want your opinion on if im doing alright using digital gold as a safe haven from bitcoin volatility, or should I just cash out and actually buy some metal, and sit tight. I know ill have more growth potential with the digital gold, due to aforementioned liquidity, but silver/gold are pretty solid. like, bedrock solid.

I wouldn't touch fractional reserve paper metals.  I could type all kinds of stuff about it, but one of the more problematic examples is that they will be forced to revalue metals in the near future and when said event happens, they will settle everyone's GLD account into fiat USD spot price first and immediately revalue right after, so basically a confiscation in practice.  Paper metals are 100% useless.

Bitcoin has ZERO, I repeat, ZERO value as a settlement layer because there already exists far better settlement alternatives - noble metals (gold and silver).  

For a legendary newbie member you know little to nothing about Blockchain. You dont know what the differences are between Bicoin and altcoins ore you do know but shilling for gold and silver.

Bitcoins blockchain belongs to the 4th industrial revolution it contains tons of value as a settement layer.

The word "blockchain" is just a hype marketing word to describe a linked list with a get rich quick scheme built on top of it.  It is not a new invention at all or a "new industrial revolution".  The get rich quick scheme was supposed to create incentive for a large mass of participants to enter, which would create some pseudo form of Nash equilibrium amongst thousands of miners, but it failed miserably in decentralization since PoW is designed to centralize and now you have just a handful of mining corporations.  Bitcoin wasn't "created by god", it was just an experiment which did not actually accomplish what it claimed to set out to do.

And hell, that's just the decentralization aspect it failed in.  It also needed to scale to have any value and that aspect went totally fubar as well since lightning network only works in a centralized manner.

[pfrtlpfmpf]

From a certain point on, there´s no such thing, as "bad" publicity (ask Michael Jackson and his underage boys).
Previously, Mt. Gox killed us. Now, it just brings us into the news, Btc-e, what? One, among many exchanges !
Before, they carried around suitcases of millions USD for crimes, now they do it with BTC, so what ?

Makes no difference, Bitcoin is here to stay ! Any good currency will be used for crime too.
I would declare crime illegal, not currencies . . .

Man, we´re going to explode after 1. August, where did i keep my "exploding suit", guys ?

[Torque]

Man, we´re going to explode after 1. August, where did i keep my "exploding suit", guys ?

When everyone keeps saying this because everyone is thinking this, it won't happen.

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Man, we´re going to explode after 1. August, where did i keep my "exploding suit", guys ?

When everyone keeps saying this because everyone is thinking this, it won't happen.

Ok. i "jinxed" it. But i´m small, so not to much weight in it 

[jojo69]

I wouldn't touch fractional reserve paper metals.  I could type all kinds of stuff about it, but one of the more problematic examples is that they will be forced to revalue metals in the near future and when said event happens, they will settle everyone's GLD account into fiat USD spot price first and immediately revalue right after, so basically a confiscation in practice.  Paper metals are 100% useless.
.

I know we are arguing and all, but 100% with you here

[r0ach]

Man, we´re going to explode after 1. August, where did i keep my "exploding suit", guys ?

When everyone keeps saying this because everyone is thinking this, it won't happen.

Most people buying bitcoins nowadays know absolutely nothing about whether it does or doesn't have some type of fundamentals (doesn't for decentralization or scaling).  

This is the bitcoin market:

[BTCtrader71]

Man, we´re going to explode after 1. August, where did i keep my "exploding suit", guys ?

When everyone keeps saying this because everyone is thinking this, it won't happen.

Ok. i "jinxed" it. But i´m small, so not to much weight in it 

Don't worry, I'll super-reverse jinx it. You see, I'm kind of a big deal * ...

So let me go on record as saying that come August 1, the bitcoin price will crash. Why? umm, 'cause ... what roach said.

* lol

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Man, we´re going to explode after 1. August, where did i keep my "exploding suit", guys ?

When everyone keeps saying this because everyone is thinking this, it won't happen.

Most people buying bitcoins nowadays know absolutely nothing about whether it does or doesn't have some type of fundamentals (doesn't for decentralization or scaling).  

This is the bitcoin market:

Fundamentals, pff. It´s about what people believe in, illogical or not, which drives the price.
Look at your (our) Gold and Silver, goes nowhere, except in full "Systemcrash"-scenario, and i don´t have the time, nor the desire for that . . .
Whereas bitcoin has a usecase, NOW.

[d_eddie]

Bitcoin, like any so-called crypto currency, is the old like world scheme of Ponzi. Only in the new high-tech pack.

Want an example? You are welcome:

1. Assume that all people in the world convert half of their savings from ordinary national currencies to crypto-currencies. What does it mean? This means that the producers of crypto-currency, received half of the world's volume of national currencies - half of the total world currency bascet.

Right, the producers. You go to the factory and buy freshly produced bitcoins. The used ones are worth much less (around 50%, depending on how used up they are).

2. After a while, the fictitious value of investments in crypto-currencies increased 4-fold (as we see in the case of Bitcoin and the mass of other crypto-currencies). What does it mean? This means that now, every person in the world, reasonably expects to receive in exchange for his crypto currency (as a return on his genius) in 4 times more volume of the national currency.

3. Let's assume that all these people, at the same time, decide to fixed their investment profit-to exchange their crypto-currencies that went up four times, (if they take profit in the form ordinary national currencies).
All of them expect to receive now 4 times more national currency than they used to, they spent on buying crypto-currencies.

QUESTION: Where does this whole currency come from? From producers or producers of crypto-currency? But they simply do not have such volumes of ordinary currency, and never were. Because, previously selling the Crypto currency, in exchange for the usual currency, the organizers and the receivers only received the initial value of the crypto currency in the usual currency. Which was at the time of the transaction only - 1/4 of the amount of currency, which is now payable to all owners of the crypto currency.

The national currency comes from national producers. It's a different factory. You go to this national factory if you want national currency.

CONCLUSION: Bitcoin, like any so-called crypto currency, is the old world scheme of Ponzi. Where each participant can receive a gain of the investments only one way - due to those new participants who have entered this pyramid later.

Actually, it's only that those who get to the bitcoin factory first, get to choose the best pieces. Later customers are treated worse by the producers at the bitcoin factory - they get the irregularly minted, lopsided, defective coins. However, this problem will be fixed: BIP200 already promises to deal with quality control at the factory, so no need to worry.

/s

TL;DR It's the holders, not the producers. Early adopters do have an advantage. If float (measured in USD) gets 4x, by definition it means that every holder will get 4x fiat when bartering btc against USD. Hm, as long as all holders don't want to barter on the same day: the producers of USD need a little extra time to print more if necessary.

[JimboToronto]

Heard this one before. Heard it in 2014, after the market had peaked.

                             and held for two and a half years
                                /
People that bought ^  that peak now have 150% profit!

FTFY

Not a bad return on your investment over 2.5 years. 60% per annum? Can't complain about that.

And that's the worst case scenario. There's never been a deeper long-term dip, and it's never taken as long to recover.

[steelboy]

Another solid nights sleep followers by a nice jump in price. Again very surprised BTC-E has just been shrugged off completely. Seems bullish to me.

[olseh]

Another solid nights sleep followers by a nice jump in price. Again very surprised BTC-E has just been shrugged off completely. Seems bullish to me.

Bitcoin always seems to do the opposite of what you expect it to do... it can be a cruel mistress

[BitThink]

Bitcoin, like any so-called crypto currency, is the old like world scheme of Ponzi. Only in the new high-tech pack.

Want an example? You are welcome:

1. Assume that all people in the world convert half of their savings from ordinary national currencies to crypto-currencies. What does it mean? This means that the producers of crypto-currency, received half of the world's volume of national currencies - half of the total world currency bascet.

2. After a while, the fictitious value of investments in crypto-currencies increased 4-fold (as we see in the case of Bitcoin and the mass of other crypto-currencies). What does it mean? This means that now, every person in the world, reasonably expects to receive in exchange for his crypto currency (as a return on his genius) in 4 times more volume of the national currency.

3. Let's assume that all these people, at the same time, decide to fixed their investment profit-to exchange their crypto-currencies that went up four times, (if they take profit in the form ordinary national currencies).
All of them expect to receive now 4 times more national currency than they used to, they spent on buying crypto-currencies.

QUESTION: Where does this whole currency come from? From producers or producers of crypto-currency? But they simply do not have such volumes of ordinary currency, and never were. Because, previously selling the Crypto currency, in exchange for the usual currency, the organizers and the receivers only received the initial value of the crypto currency in the usual currency. Which was at the time of the transaction only - 1/4 of the amount of currency, which is now payable to all owners of the crypto currency.

CONCLUSION: Bitcoin, like any so-called crypto currency, is the old world scheme of Ponzi. Where each participant can receive a gain of the investments only one way - due to those new participants who have entered this pyramid later.

If half the world is using cryptocurrency, is there any possibility that people still need to convert their cryptocurrency to fiat before they can use it?