Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

Never the less, if this Mr. Ver en Mr. Wu are as significant as they seem to be

They aren't.

[bones261]

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

The miners are going to blow through these 2016 blocks in a day or two. After that the difficulty is going to skyrocket for BCH. Probably close to the 4x limit. I think it's going to be game over for BCH when that happens.

Any idea how he diff will change at this point % wise? If it's massive, will it put them under profitability again?  

If so, I need to dump the rest of my BCH.  Been hanging on to half to see what happens....

It could go up 4x or be 400% what it is now. The difficulty would shoot up to 272888550039. In order to be on parity with BTC difficulty, they would need to put the buy support at almost .3 BTC per BCH. The slowdown in hashrate could cause their special difficulty adjustment to kick in, but this takes at least 24 hours of blocks coming in at slower than 1 per 2 hours. The only other reprieve would be the upcoming difficulty adjustment upwards of BTC. If the BCH difficulty only went up 3x or 300% of what it is now, the buy support would need to be at a little over .22BTC for profitability to be on parity with BTC. With the current block emission rate at about 3 blocks per 10 minutes, its likely the next difficulty adjustment will go up by 300% or more, if their current hash rate remains stable.

[empowering]

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

The miners are going to blow through these 2016 blocks in a day or two. After that the difficulty is going to skyrocket for BCH. Probably close to the 4x limit. I think it's going to be game over for BCH when that happens.

Any idea how he diff will change at this point % wise? If it's massive, will it put them under profitability again?  

If so, I need to dump the rest of my BCH.  Been hanging on to half to see what happens....

It could go up 4x or be 400% what it is now. The difficulty would shoot up to 272888550039. In order to be on parity with BTC difficulty, they would need to put the buy support at almost .3 BTC per BCH. The slowdown in hashrate could cause their special difficulty adjustment to kick in, but this takes at least 24 hours of blocks coming in at slower than 1 per 2 hours. The only other reprieve would be the upcoming difficulty adjustment upwards of BTC. If the BCH difficulty only went up 3x or 300% of what it is now, the buy support would need to be at a little over .22BTC for profitability to be on parity with BTC. With the current block emission rate at about 3 blocks per 10 minutes, its likely the next difficulty adjustment will go up by 300% or more, if their current hash rate remains stable.

You can keep an eye on it here - http://bitcointicker.co/bccnetworkstats/


Current Difficulty:   68222137509
Est. Next Difficulty:   42388559987
Est. Difficulty change:   -37.87%
Speculative Diff. change:   75.51%
Diff calc since fork:   1.41%
Next Diff. change in:   1741 blocks

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I have to say, it feels very good to have collected on my fork cash.

[bones261]

It could go up 4x or be 400% what it is now. The difficulty would shoot up to 272888550039. In order to be on parity with BTC difficulty, they would need to put the buy support at almost .3 BTC per BCH. The slowdown in hashrate could cause their special difficulty adjustment to kick in, but this takes at least 24 hours of blocks coming in at slower than 1 per 2 hours. The only other reprieve would be the upcoming difficulty adjustment upwards of BTC. If the BCH difficulty only went up 3x or 300% of what it is now, the buy support would need to be at a little over .22BTC for profitability to be on parity with BTC. With the current block emission rate at about 3 blocks per 10 minutes, its likely the next difficulty adjustment will go up by 300% or more, if their current hash rate remains stable.

You can keep an eye on it here - http://bitcointicker.co/bccnetworkstats/


Current Difficulty:   68222137509
Est. Next Difficulty:   42388559987
Est. Difficulty change:   -37.87%
Speculative Diff. change:   75.51%
Diff calc since fork:   1.41%
Next Diff. change in:   1741 blocks

That next difficulty change is calculated wrong on that web page. I understand though. Who is used to considering such ridiculous extremes? The maximum difficulty change upward is only 4x or a factor of 4.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target
I'm assuming that when the Bitcoin Cash devs fiddled with the difficulty adjustment that they didn't screw that maximum up. A drastic difficulty change of 6x, or a factor of 6 would be devastating.

[empowering]

I have to say, it feels very good to have collected on my fork cash.

You should treat yourself..... oh go on  

What will it be?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I have to say, it feels very good to have collected on my fork cash.

You should treat yourself..... oh go on  

What will it be?

I'm going to lather myself in richly oils and feed myself grapes all day.

[AlexGR]

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

The miners are going to blow through these 2016 blocks in a day or two. After that the difficulty is going to skyrocket for BCH. Probably close to the 4x limit. I think it's going to be game over for BCH when that happens.

Any idea how he diff will change at this point % wise? If it's massive, will it put them under profitability again?  

If so, I need to dump the rest of my BCH.  Been hanging on to half to see what happens....

It could go up 4x or be 400% what it is now. The difficulty would shoot up to 272888550039. In order to be on parity with BTC difficulty, they would need to put the buy support at almost .3 BTC per BCH. The slowdown in hashrate could cause their special difficulty adjustment to kick in, but this takes at least 24 hours of blocks coming in at slower than 1 per 2 hours. The only other reprieve would be the upcoming difficulty adjustment upwards of BTC. If the BCH difficulty only went up 3x or 300% of what it is now, the buy support would need to be at a little over .22BTC for profitability to be on parity with BTC. With the current block emission rate at about 3 blocks per 10 minutes, its likely the next difficulty adjustment will go up by 300% or more, if their current hash rate remains stable.

Keep in mind that profitability calculators do not factor BTC fees into the equation. When you have 1-3 BTC per block, that's a substantial amount that can increase BTC profitability by 8-25%.

In fact, BTC fees are also a mechanism which allow BTC to "recover" in case of hashrate going away. Let's say tomorrow a very hot sha256 coin appears and hashrate goes down a lot. At that point block emission is reduced substantially, but the competition between people wanting to get first priority, in the first mined block, increases a lot also. So the first block mined will include the highest-fee transactions, and this could amount to something like 6-7-8 BTC - or more. If blocks take too long, at that point the block reward may even be doubled or surpassed by the tx fees that want first priority. This remedies profitability despite difficulty remaining the same.

On the other hand, if BTC's blocks were large enough to clear the mempool of any minimum-fee-transaction, even if the blocks took an hour to arrive due to lost hashrate, this built-in incentive wouldn't even be there. In a way, the increased fee pressure, which currently replenishes some of the lost miner income (after the halving), acts as a protective shield. In other words it pays to follow a "glide path" from a full-blown subsidy economy that has near-zero fees, to a full-blown fee economy where subsidy is practically zero, and doing so in steps.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/898023883361722368
Who needs replay protection when you have grapes?

[Last of the V8s]

They didn't think much to the Ocean
The waves, they were fiddlin' and small
There was no wrecks and nobody drownded
Fact, nothing to laugh at, at all.

[kurious]

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

The miners are going to blow through these 2016 blocks in a day or two. After that the difficulty is going to skyrocket for BCH. Probably close to the 4x limit. I think it's going to be game over for BCH when that happens.

Any idea how he diff will change at this point % wise? If it's massive, will it put them under profitability again?  

If so, I need to dump the rest of my BCH.  Been hanging on to half to see what happens....

It could go up 4x or be 400% what it is now. The difficulty would shoot up to 272888550039. In order to be on parity with BTC difficulty, they would need to put the buy support at almost .3 BTC per BCH. The slowdown in hashrate could cause their special difficulty adjustment to kick in, but this takes at least 24 hours of blocks coming in at slower than 1 per 2 hours. The only other reprieve would be the upcoming difficulty adjustment upwards of BTC. If the BCH difficulty only went up 3x or 300% of what it is now, the buy support would need to be at a little over .22BTC for profitability to be on parity with BTC. With the current block emission rate at about 3 blocks per 10 minutes, its likely the next difficulty adjustment will go up by 300% or more, if their current hash rate remains stable.

Keep in mind that profitability calculators do not factor BTC fees into the equation. When you have 1-3 BTC per block, that's a substantial amount that can increase BTC profitability by 8-25%.

In fact, BTC fees are also a mechanism which allow BTC to "recover" in case of hashrate going away. Let's say tomorrow a very hot sha256 coin appears and hashrate goes down a lot. At that point block emission is reduced substantially, but the competition between people wanting to get first priority, in the first mined block, increases a lot also. So the first block mined will include the highest-fee transactions, and this could amount to something like 6-7-8 BTC - or more. If blocks take too long, at that point the block reward may even be doubled or surpassed by the tx fees that want first priority. This remedies profitability despite difficulty remaining the same.

On the other hand, if BTC's blocks were large enough to clear the mempool of any minimum-fee-transaction, even if the blocks took an hour to arrive due to lost hashrate, this built-in incentive wouldn't even be there. In a way, the increased fee pressure, which currently replenishes some of the lost miner income (after the halving), acts as a protective shield. In other words it pays to follow a "glide path" from a full-blown subsidy economy that has near-zero fees, to a full-blown fee economy where subsidy is practically zero, and doing so in steps.

Nice analysis - I am less concerned about the potential spiraling down if hash power moved (substantially).  Sold a few more BCH, might be too late soon!

[RayX12]

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

The miners are going to blow through these 2016 blocks in a day or two. After that the difficulty is going to skyrocket for BCH. Probably close to the 4x limit. I think it's going to be game over for BCH when that happens.

Any idea how he diff will change at this point % wise? If it's massive, will it put them under profitability again?  

If so, I need to dump the rest of my BCH.  Been hanging on to half to see what happens....

It could go up 4x or be 400% what it is now. The difficulty would shoot up to 272888550039. In order to be on parity with BTC difficulty, they would need to put the buy support at almost .3 BTC per BCH. The slowdown in hashrate could cause their special difficulty adjustment to kick in, but this takes at least 24 hours of blocks coming in at slower than 1 per 2 hours. The only other reprieve would be the upcoming difficulty adjustment upwards of BTC. If the BCH difficulty only went up 3x or 300% of what it is now, the buy support would need to be at a little over .22BTC for profitability to be on parity with BTC. With the current block emission rate at about 3 blocks per 10 minutes, its likely the next difficulty adjustment will go up by 300% or more, if their current hash rate remains stable.

Keep in mind that profitability calculators do not factor BTC fees into the equation. When you have 1-3 BTC per block, that's a substantial amount that can increase BTC profitability by 8-25%.

In fact, BTC fees are also a mechanism which allow BTC to "recover" in case of hashrate going away. Let's say tomorrow a very hot sha256 coin appears and hashrate goes down a lot. At that point block emission is reduced substantially, but the competition between people wanting to get first priority, in the first mined block, increases a lot also. So the first block mined will include the highest-fee transactions, and this could amount to something like 6-7-8 BTC - or more. If blocks take too long, at that point the block reward may even be doubled or surpassed by the tx fees that want first priority. This remedies profitability despite difficulty remaining the same.

On the other hand, if BTC's blocks were large enough to clear the mempool of any minimum-fee-transaction, even if the blocks took an hour to arrive due to lost hashrate, this built-in incentive wouldn't even be there. In a way, the increased fee pressure, which currently replenishes some of the lost miner income (after the halving), acts as a protective shield. In other words it pays to follow a "glide path" from a full-blown subsidy economy that has near-zero fees, to a full-blown fee economy where subsidy is practically zero, and doing so in steps.

Are there any prediction models about what the fees would look like in the years to come assuming different scaling methods?

[bones261]

Are there any prediction models about what the fees would look like in the years to come assuming different scaling methods?

Probably, but I'm sure any model you come across will be skewed by the analyst's own bias.

[bitserve]

Are there any prediction models about what the fees would look like in the years to come assuming different scaling methods?

Probably, but I'm sure any model you come across will be skewed by the analyst's own bias.

Also many factors in the calculation would need to get out of the ass, like user adoption growth, number of tx's per user, distribution between on-chain tx's and LN tx's in case of Segwit chain and potential blocksize increases in both Segwit chain and Bcash chain -the latter is suppossed to keep increasing the blocksize in the future if demands rises-.

It is a falacy that miners need to get their income from fees because of reward halving.... atm the price increase have had a MUCH bigger impact than the halvings. Also, when the day comes that fees are more important than the reward they will be least interested in price increases but only on milking the most out of tx fees. Not good for investors.

The moment the fees are more important than BTC price, the price will probably stagnate or even decrease.

Also, a constantly increasing blocksize is not sustainable in the medium/long term.

That doesn't mean Bitcoin should not keep increasing its blocksize LIGHTLY over the years, but the idea of "all tx's must go on-chain" is absolutely ridiculous.

Really, now that we almost have Segwit and LN is in the works... let's just comply with Segwit2X, implement that reasonable blocksize increase, and fuck them all. No more fucking scaling debate for many years.

Not only it will be WAY harder to spam the blockchain when it is not already near full with "legit" tx's, but also they won't have any economical incentive to keep doing it.

[Dakustaking76]

Why is the mining SegwitX2 dropping? Still need 396 blocks to be mined..

[AlexGR]

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

The miners are going to blow through these 2016 blocks in a day or two. After that the difficulty is going to skyrocket for BCH. Probably close to the 4x limit. I think it's going to be game over for BCH when that happens.

Any idea how he diff will change at this point % wise? If it's massive, will it put them under profitability again?  

If so, I need to dump the rest of my BCH.  Been hanging on to half to see what happens....

It could go up 4x or be 400% what it is now. The difficulty would shoot up to 272888550039. In order to be on parity with BTC difficulty, they would need to put the buy support at almost .3 BTC per BCH. The slowdown in hashrate could cause their special difficulty adjustment to kick in, but this takes at least 24 hours of blocks coming in at slower than 1 per 2 hours. The only other reprieve would be the upcoming difficulty adjustment upwards of BTC. If the BCH difficulty only went up 3x or 300% of what it is now, the buy support would need to be at a little over .22BTC for profitability to be on parity with BTC. With the current block emission rate at about 3 blocks per 10 minutes, its likely the next difficulty adjustment will go up by 300% or more, if their current hash rate remains stable.

Keep in mind that profitability calculators do not factor BTC fees into the equation. When you have 1-3 BTC per block, that's a substantial amount that can increase BTC profitability by 8-25%.

In fact, BTC fees are also a mechanism which allow BTC to "recover" in case of hashrate going away. Let's say tomorrow a very hot sha256 coin appears and hashrate goes down a lot. At that point block emission is reduced substantially, but the competition between people wanting to get first priority, in the first mined block, increases a lot also. So the first block mined will include the highest-fee transactions, and this could amount to something like 6-7-8 BTC - or more. If blocks take too long, at that point the block reward may even be doubled or surpassed by the tx fees that want first priority. This remedies profitability despite difficulty remaining the same.

On the other hand, if BTC's blocks were large enough to clear the mempool of any minimum-fee-transaction, even if the blocks took an hour to arrive due to lost hashrate, this built-in incentive wouldn't even be there. In a way, the increased fee pressure, which currently replenishes some of the lost miner income (after the halving), acts as a protective shield. In other words it pays to follow a "glide path" from a full-blown subsidy economy that has near-zero fees, to a full-blown fee economy where subsidy is practically zero, and doing so in steps.

Are there any prediction models about what the fees would look like in the years to come assuming different scaling methods?

Probably, but I'm not aware of them.

[bitserve]

Why is the mining SegwitX2 dropping? Still need 396 blocks to be mined..

What do you mean?

[Dakustaking76]

Why is the mining SegwitX2 dropping? Still need 396 blocks to be mined..

What do you mean?

Edit: i mean the SegwitX2 mining is dropping But still we need 390 blocks
With bip141 mining..

[bitserve]

Why is the mining SegwitX2 dropping? Still need 396 blocks to be mined..

What do you mean?

Edit: i mean the SegwitX2 mining is dropping But still we need 390 blocks
With bip141 mining..

Segwit2x signaling is only a "political" stance now. No technical implications (no BIP's) yet. They are just signaling that, when the time comes, they are going for th 2x part of the Segwit2x agreement. It may have been slightly reduced in the past few days because ViaBTC has directed much of its hasrate to BCH mining, maybe Bitmain is doing the same, and both of those are part of the Segwit2x signaling in BTC.

BIP141 was already locked, no matter if the signaling goes to zero.... it will inevitably activate in 396 blocks.

[Dakustaking76]

Why is the mining SegwitX2 dropping? Still need 396 blocks to be mined..

What do you mean?

Edit: i mean the SegwitX2 mining is dropping But still we need 390 blocks
With bip141 mining..

Segwit2x signaling is only a "political" stance now. No technical implications (no BIP's) yet. They are just signaling that, when the time comes, they are going for th 2x part of the Segwit2x agreement. It may have been slightly reduced in the past few days because ViaBTC has directed much of its hasrate to BCH mining, maybe Bitmain is doing the same, and both of those are part of the Segwit2x signaling in BTC.

BIP141 was already locked, no matter if the signaling goes to zero.... it will inevitably activate in 396 blocks.

Thank you for your explanitation!