Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ultraviolet]

ITT: Missing the point because mad at the mention of God and channeling the spirit of r/atheism.

[1715083651]

1715083651

[dexX7]

Volume at Gox is so small it is almost scary

everyone is busy at the conference

Isn't it over?

Ref low volume on holidays and weekends: does that concept apply for Bitcoin at all? Banking holiday in Japan is a valid reason, but I somehow doubt, a majority of BTC is traded by wallstreet guys who sit in an office at daytime. Would be great, if anyone has any data on that. A contra argument could be (not saying it is): BTC is mostly privately owned, thus people trade in their freetime.



Bid sum is still very bullish and even rising a bit in the last hours. If a breakout happens, it could be soon.

[thoughtfan]

Volume at Gox is so small it is almost scary

everyone is busy at the conference

If I may extrapolate on that (with a chart of course)...



...the weekly step-down in volume would be explained by those having had to travel furthest leaving their trading desks on the 2nd week of April to start their trek to the conference, followed by those next-furthest away in the 3rd week of April and so on so that last week's volume drop-off can be explained by the Californians departing for San Jose  Let's see what happens as everyone returns home

On a more serious note I'm fascinated looking at the prices on the same weekly chart, especially the EMA (3)

Look how insignificant by now April's  'crash' was;
Look at the massive contrast between the huge volume drop-off and the virtually unmoving (but slightly upward) price.

Meanwhile the transaction volume (in USD) appears only just to have dropped out of the $20.000.000 - $60,000,000 channel.



Given that more than a small part of the transaction volume must be currency trading transactions and that trading transactions have almost died off entirely I'm surprised we are only now seeing the overall transaction volume drop.  Does this mean transactions other than currency trading are going up?

I wonder if the trading volume were to drop off further or stablise at today's levels would the price fall to any significant degree?  I'm suspecting, based on the failure of low volumes to trigger sell-offs that the vast proportion of bitcoins is in strong hands by now.  Whether or not the price is being manipulated I believe the nervous have had plenty of opportunity to close their positions by now and we have also seen buyers come pouring in every time there is a dip.

So if I were to make a prediction it would be that the longer we hang around this price mark the more likely we are to continue to go mainly sideways.  When the market is too calm for day-traders to make anything we get an idea of what currency-trading is required to sustain (non-currency-trading) transaction volumes.  And if that's steady or rising there should be enough liquidity to satisfy their requirements without shifting the price very far either way.

In the meantime if we get another wave of speculators or of long-term savers (hoarders) or if existing speculators/hoarders decide to increase their bitcoin holding then up we go again.

Call me an eternal optimist but I'm failing to see credible downward pressures
 

[crumbcake]

Pascal's wager is wrong because no God as defined in human religion can exist.

Sure he can.  Don't be goofy.  He's omnipotent.  He breaks logic for breakfast!  A=~A every day of the year.

Ignoring that is is wrong because he uses infinite numbers while these should obviously be finite.

The infinite numbers are fine.  Eternal bliss & eternal damnation!
[/theology]

[ChartBuddy]

[wachtwoord]

Pascal's wager is wrong because no God as defined in human religion can exist.

Sure he can.  Don't be goofy.  He's omnipotent.  He breaks logic for breakfast!  A=~A every day of the year.

Omnipotence implies logical contradiction and therefore cannot exist in this universe.  (Could god create a rock he himself cannot lift? )

Ignoring that is is wrong because he uses infinite numbers while these should obviously be finite.

The infinite numbers are fine.  Eternal bliss & eternal damnation!
[/theology]

The value proposition of eternal bliss or eternal damnation is still finite

Wait was I on topic?  

[Coinseeker]

Id quite happily be trading between mtgox\btc-e but there isnt a quick and easy way to move $ between the two... especially when your from the UK.
unless someone wants to enlighten me??

I've made a couple of successful trades via: Sell BTC on Ripple -> Fiat to BitStamp -> Buy BTC at Bitstamp.  Rinse and repeat.  Fiat transfer was super quick too.

BUT..there is almost no liquidity in Ripple, so selling at near MtGox prices is difficult and took most of the day just to pull off 2 trades that were worth the effort.  The good news is I really only paid a fee at Bitstamp so the potential is there and I could sell a bit lower but, just not enough trades happening from Ripple to really take advantage yet.

[crumbcake]

Pascal's wager is wrong because no God as defined in human religion can exist.

Sure he can.  Don't be goofy.  He's omnipotent.  He breaks logic for breakfast!  A=~A every day of the year.

Omnipotence implies logical contradiction and therefore cannot exist in this universe.  (Could god create a rock he himself cannot lift? )

Don't be silly.  Faith in ~(A & ~A) is just that:  Faith.  You choose to have faith in universal noncontradiction, others choose God.  Why quibble?  And sure, God could create a rock he couldn't lift & then (lift & ~lift) it at the same time.  Your inability to imagine such a thing speaks more about your imagination than the thing's impossibility.

Ignoring that is is wrong because he uses infinite numbers while these should obviously be finite.

The infinite numbers are fine.  Eternal bliss & eternal damnation!
[/theology]

The value proposition of eternal bliss or eternal damnation is still finite

Wait was I on topic?  

Learn to infinity (infinity)*X=???

edit:  If you want to start a new topic somewhere...  Feels like i'm spamming.

[Piper67]

I guess it is safe to say that none of us know. But in danger of missing a Black Swan go by I would rather sacrifice some future "profit" or holdings of BTC by trying to buy in later at lower prices, with just holding at what I see to be a great price - now. But I can say, it is wise to have capital available to buy more in later should that occur. But it sounds like you are trying to rationalize the greatest social experiment in the history of our civilization. Think about that.

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

People should really try to comprehend this. The small value you are likely to gain by waiting (which is relatively probable) does not beat the enormous gain you lose by being out when the price suddenly spikes (even though this is a far less likely event to happen in the time-frame you are out of BTC). The opportunity cost of choosing fiat over BTC short term can be extremely high.

Exactly. If you get super lucky and call it right you might get another 20% or so, but if you call it wrong you are holding ZERO and buying in at much higher levels.
[snip]

In other words, you see nothing wrong with Pascal's Wager?

I think you have to add another column...."Wrong God Exists" there to be more accurate. 

Isn't there an infinite chance that the god he could "believe in" is the wrong one?

In that case believing in no god is probably better than believing in the wrong one.

You should also add another column "right god exists but doesn't want you to believe in him" and another "wrong god exists but doesn't want you to believe in him" and so on and so forth. Pascal's wager has been discredited as an argument for the existence of god for quite a few decades now, just like pretty much every other argument for the existence of god. Also, it's hucksterish... "believe in god to hedge your bets", not a particularly moral position.

[Hawker]

Guys do you mind taking the God stuff to another thread? 

[wachtwoord]

Don't be silly.  Faith in ~(A & ~A) is just that:  Faith.  You choose to have faith in universal noncontradiction, others choose God.  Why quibble?  And sure, God could create a rock he couldn't lift & then (lift & ~lift) it at the same time.  Your inability to imagine such a thing speaks more about your imagination than the thing's impossibility.

This is very true. I like arguing with religious people who can make this argument as it proves I'm not conversing with an idiot, just someone with a different ground-premise than me about how the world works. Everyone has universal premisses in their mind and classical logic is mine. Nothing can ever conclusively be proven, we can just show we are unable to create a counter example.

However, I already find it quite strong to be able to conclude that to be able to believe in any deity you absolutely have to reject classical logic. (However note in my previous post I was still unable to reject omnipotence completely, I could just do it in this universe, even with the classical logic premise).

edit:  If you want to start a new topic somewhere...  Feels like i'm spamming.

Haha, spamming in 507 page topic in 1 month

Edit:

OT: I find it quite unlikely god is able influence the price, either up or down 

[Chainsaw]

Don't be silly.  Faith in ~(A & ~A) is just that:  Faith.  You choose to have faith in universal noncontradiction, others choose God.  Why quibble?  And sure, God could create a rock he couldn't lift & then (lift & ~lift) it at the same time.  Your inability to imagine such a thing speaks more about your imagination than the thing's impossibility.

This is very true. I like arguing with religious people who can make this argument as it proves I'm not conversing with an idiot, just someone with a different ground-premise than me about how the world works. Everyone has universal premisses in their mind and classical logic is mine. Nothing can ever conclusively be proven, we can just show we are unable to create a counter example.

However, I already find it quite strong to be able to conclude that to be able to believe in any deity you absolutely have to reject classical logic. (However note in my previous post I was still unable to reject omnipotence completely, I could just do it in this universe, even with the classical logic premise).

edit:  If you want to start a new topic somewhere...  Feels like i'm spamming.

Haha, spamming in 507 page topic in 1 month

Edit:

OT: I find it quite unlikely god is able influence the price, either up or down 

When ChartBuddy starts getting in on the god conversation, that's when I'll get concerned.

[crumbcake]

Guys do you mind taking the God stuff to another thread? 

Sorry -- used Pascal's Wager to counter the "it can go to the moon, you're a fool to sit & eat popcorn!" argument, didn't think of opening a phil. 101 can of worms.

[MickeyT2008]

Who is this God chap anyway?  Is he a bitcoin supernode?

More to the point, will we see an assault on $125 today?

[thoughtfan]

Guys do you mind taking the God stuff to another thread? 

Careful with those kind of sentiments Hawker

Last time I dared make such a suggestion when religion found its way onto the old wall thread I got asked if I lived in Communist China and accused of trying to suppress free speech!!

On the other hand there was so little going on I clicked 'Unignore' on Coinseeker's post only to find his is the most informative of the bunch!  Wonders never cease

[crumbcake]

Who is this God chap anyway?  Is he a bitcoin supernode?

More to the point, will we see an assault on $125 today?

http://s20.postimg.org/n6ctdbtx5/00000.jpg

[wachtwoord]

Guys do you mind taking the God stuff to another thread? 

Careful with those kind of sentiments Hawker

Last time I dared make such a suggestion when religion found its way onto the old wall thread I got asked if I lived in Communist China and accused of trying to suppress free speech!!

On the other hand there was so little going on I clicked 'Unignore' on Coinseeker's post only to find his is the most informative of the bunch!  Wonders never cease

Haha, I'll make no such accusation (and I'll cram it). It's just that this is mostly a slow-chat topic and i was enjoying the argument (but felt a separate topic was far too much credit).

[Coinseeker]

On the other hand there was so little going on I clicked 'Unignore' on Coinseeker's post only to find his is the most informative of the bunch!  Wonders never cease

You just caught me before noon, but the day is still young.

[Frozenlock]

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

 

And if it drops 100$ in a day?

Even if you have a world changing invention, markets can remain blind to it for years.
Worse: the invention could simply be discarded and forgotten.

For example, the Greeks invented the steam engine, but we had to wait for thousands
of years before any of its potential was really used.
"Guys! Hold to it! It's world changing invention!" - A guy, 2000 years too soon.

I really wish Bitcoin will go up, but you guys remember me too much of how I was in 2009.
"How can it go down? It's the most important invention since fire!"
The market didn't care.

The more I see scareless permabulls like you, the more I fear for Bitcoin.  

[ChartBuddy]