Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[phoenix1]

Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.

I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.

edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)

YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not

EDIT : I specifically asked them about how they hedged their Bitcoin exposure and was told that they could not divulge this information. Seeing as their spread is nearly always exactly centred around the midpoint of the Gox bid/ask, it does not look like they are taking positions and then moving prices accordingly.
Their business model is fine unless all their clients are short and it crashes. Otherwise they can always hedge on a Gox account.

[10c]

#include <oligarch.h>

void main() {

    int oil_pipe;
    unsigned long money;
    int offshore;

    oil_pipe = open("/dev/oil",O_RDONLY,0);
    offshore = open("/dev/cyprus",O_RDWR,0);

    if(offshore==-1) {

        offshore = open("/dev/bitcoin",O_RDWR,0);

    }


    while(1) {

      read(oil_pipe,&money,100000000);
      write(offshore,&money,100000000);

    }

}

like someone said.... most of us are sick in the head..... 

[Odalv]

Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.

I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.

edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)

YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not

I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M.  ... and there are only 12M existing ).

[Its About Sharing]

Well, you guys might be right that we move up. But here is another bad divergence(s).

https://twitter.com/AlbertarocksTA/status/346698741585170432/photo/1

[Frozenlock]

Windows XP...

Excel...

RUNNNNN! 

[Rampion]

Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.

I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.

edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)

YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not

I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M.  ... and there are only 12M existing ).

The fact is that shorting with leverage crap is a motherfucking scam. It's just gambling in its purest form, but they are gambling with customers money - if they lose big time and go bust, it's their customers who are left holding the bag. The managers who drive the business are just swimming in money pools and are the same scammers doing the very same tricks that trigger the financial crisis in the modern world.

Did you know that plus500 is owned by UK banks, did you?

[Odalv]

Well, you guys might be right that we move up. But here is another bad divergence(s).

https://twitter.com/AlbertarocksTA/status/346698741585170432/photo/1

so then we are going down (maybe to single number or even negative one :-) ) .. who cares ? (not me .. using FA)

[betaknight]

Well, you guys might be right that we move up. But here is another bad divergence(s).

https://twitter.com/AlbertarocksTA/status/346698741585170432/photo/1

duly noted but vetoing    i'm trusting a read on the flow of the order book. The action is painting a picture of a reversal in recent pessimism. Still a bull(shit?) market haha

[Odalv]

Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.

I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.

edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)

YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not

I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M.  ... and there are only 12M existing ).

The fact is that shorting with leverage crap is a motherfucking scam. It's just gambling in its purest form, but they are gambling with customers money - if they lose big time and go bust, it's their customers who are left holding the bag. The managers who drive the business are just swimming in money pools and are the same scammers doing the very same tricks that trigger the financial crisis in the modern world.

Did you know that plus500 is owned by UK banks, did you?

I only know, it is easy to extract $$$ from plus500 :-) (they do not understand what is bitcoin) Nothing illegal they make bet I'll accept bet ... I'll win bet. Theirs company go down. Somebody makes mistake.

[10c]

Well, you guys might be right that we move up. But here is another bad divergence(s).

https://twitter.com/AlbertarocksTA/status/346698741585170432/photo/1

duly noted but vetoing    i'm trusting a read on the flow of the order book. The action is painting a picture of a reversal in recent pessimism. Still a bull(shit?) market haha

and thats why BTC is hard to TA. the sentiment here turned bullish  

[Its About Sharing]

Well, you guys might be right that we move up. But here is another bad divergence(s).

https://twitter.com/AlbertarocksTA/status/346698741585170432/photo/1

duly noted but vetoing    i'm trusting a read on the flow of the order book. The action is painting a picture of a reversal in recent pessimism. Still a bull(shit?) market haha

I'm split. You are right - the order book is looking good and has been for days (at least within $5-$10 of the current price). But notice when we start moving in those sells just hit us down again?
It just happened a few minutes ago as I was watching the Gox market. Maybe 350 - 400 BTC sells came through in batches of 50-100 or so. That has been happening for a while, so I don't
exactly trust the order book.

[ChartBuddy]

[phoenix1]

Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.

I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.

edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)

YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not

I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M.  ... and there are only 12M existing ).

The fact is that shorting with leverage crap is a motherfucking scam. It's just gambling in its purest form, but they are gambling with customers money - if they lose big time and go bust, it's their customers who are left holding the bag. The managers who drive the business are just swimming in money pools and are the same scammers doing the very same tricks that trigger the financial crisis in the modern world.

Did you know that plus500 is owned by UK banks, did you?

I would not put it that strongly ... they are just feeding a nation/world's addiction to gambling
Yes, I know they are UK based. I feel safer (for now) having fiat with them than in an account in Slovenia, which is rumoured to be on the edge of a banking crisis. When I think its time to actually buy and hold BTC I will use my Bitstamp account. Meanwhile Plus500 is quicker and safer from my experience. No wallet to get hacked and a nice fiat paper trail.
Leverage and shorting is another issue ... really depends on the net house position, on which we can only speculate. Bad risk management, yeah, could get fucked. I would be more worried if they only traded Bitcoin. As it is, they have other revenue streams.

I agree, if they lose and go bust, customers are left holding the bag, but that's the same if an exchange gets hacked/closed down. We are always on the wrong side of these things and always will be . It's part of the game right now.

EDIT : Shorting, leverage and manipulation are 3 completely seperate things. A market that cannot be shorted is more open to manipulation than one that can. It's when things get out of control and the speculative money is running the market that we have a problem. As for leverage, it's only a danger if you don't know how to use it and over-extend yourself (translation - get too greedy  ). On a macro scale, yes, that's a huge problem ... banks and governments are massively over-leveraged - that's the real scam. The tax payer is short a put and being charged for it !

[10c]

I'm split. You are right - the order book is looking good and has been for days (at least within $5-$10 of the current price). But notice when we start moving in those sells just hit us down again?
It just happened a few minutes ago as I was watching the Gox market. Maybe 350 - 400 BTC sells came through in batches of 50-100 or so. That has been happening for a while, so I don't
exactly trust the order book.

I honestly figured we were going towards 50. We should have hit some 80's or 70's by now.
Instead we move sideways and there seems to be the sentiment that $100 coin is not to expensive.

edit:
I was about to sell 15% of my stack but as of now am still 100% (well 99% orso) BTC

[Its About Sharing]

Well, you guys might be right that we move up. But here is another bad divergence(s).

https://twitter.com/AlbertarocksTA/status/346698741585170432/photo/1

duly noted but vetoing    i'm trusting a read on the flow of the order book. The action is painting a picture of a reversal in recent pessimism. Still a bull(shit?) market haha

and thats why BTC is hard to TA. the sentiment here turned bullish  

You might be right but at the same time wrong. Look at my comment above on how the order book looks good but those sells keep smacking it down (And they are not showing up there.)

[Rampion]

Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.

I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.

edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)

YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not

I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M.  ... and there are only 12M existing ).

The fact is that shorting with leverage crap is a motherfucking scam. It's just gambling in its purest form, but they are gambling with customers money - if they lose big time and go bust, it's their customers who are left holding the bag. The managers who drive the business are just swimming in money pools and are the same scammers doing the very same tricks that trigger the financial crisis in the modern world.

Did you know that plus500 is owned by UK banks, did you?

I only know, it is easy to extract $$$ from plus500 :-) (they do not understand what is bitcoin) Nothing illegal they make bet I'll accept bet ... I'll win bet. Theirs company go down. Somebody makes mistake.

If the company go down (but it won't, because Bitcoin it's still too small) is your money they lose. What you funded in their account and all the gains you did not withdrew. Just like when it's your bank that go bankrupt. All money that it's not under your mattress is gone. The individuals running the business have no risk, it's their customers who are risking their money trusting it to a bunch of white collar gambling scammers

And that's why we have Bitcoin

[Odalv]

Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.

I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.

edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)

YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not

I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M.  ... and there are only 12M existing ).

Simples ... they won't take that bet . They don't say how much size the bid/offer is good for, thereby  (sensibly) always reserving the right to refuse it (or change the price)
They will have limits on how big a position they will take on as a house, and those limits will depend upon how they hedge.
Go try trading 1M on the bid or the offer ... I guarantee you the order wil not be accepted. They are not that stupid.

If none of this is true, you are correct, they have a terrible business model and are really stupid. Dont forget, they trade many, many markets, so this is not likely.

They only need cash and a Gox account to hedge a short house position ... buy some BTC, no worries. They need to borrow BTC to short to hedge a net long ... that is the risk that needs managing.

I think they are trading billions or trillions of dollars so maybe few(tens) millions does not matter. :-) I do not have few tens of millions ... will not try to manipulate. (just idea what may be wrong)

[Its About Sharing]

Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.

I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.

edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)

YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not

I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M.  ... and there are only 12M existing ).

The fact is that shorting with leverage crap is a motherfucking scam. It's just gambling in its purest form, but they are gambling with customers money - if they lose big time and go bust, it's their customers who are left holding the bag. The managers who drive the business are just swimming in money pools and are the same scammers doing the very same tricks that trigger the financial crisis in the modern world.

Did you know that plus500 is owned by UK banks, did you?

I would not put it that strongly ... they are just feeding a nation/world's addiction to gambling
Yes, I know they are UK based. I feel safer (for now) having fiat with them than in an account in Slovenia, which is rumoured to be on the edge of a banking crisis. When I think its time to actually buy and hold BTC I will use my Bitstamp account. Meanwhile Plus500 is quicker and safer from my experience. No wallet to get hacked and a nice fiat paper trail.
Leverage and shorting is another issue ... really depends on the net house position, on which we can only speculate. Bad risk management, yeah, could get fucked. I would be more worried if they only traded Bitcoin. As it is, they have other revenue streams.

I agree, if they lose and go bust, customers are left holding the bag, but that's the same if an exchange gets hacked/closed down. We are always on the wrong side of these things and always will be . It's part of the game right now.

Wait, Slovenia is where Bitstamps bank is located. And Slovenia is close to a banking crisis? Info here please, that is bad...

[betaknight]

Well, you guys might be right that we move up. But here is another bad divergence(s).

https://twitter.com/AlbertarocksTA/status/346698741585170432/photo/1

duly noted but vetoing    i'm trusting a read on the flow of the order book. The action is painting a picture of a reversal in recent pessimism. Still a bull(shit?) market haha

I'm split. You are right - the order book is looking good and has been for days (at least within $5-$10 of the current price). But notice when we start moving in those sells just hit us down again?
It just happened a few minutes ago as I was watching the Gox market. Maybe 350 - 400 BTC sells came through in batches of 50-100 or so. That has been happening for a while, so I don't
exactly trust the order book.

True, but those batches could also just be market makers who are happy to earn a couple nickels on the spread.  The bids have been dropping quickly when those hammers come down, but even at their lowest, they've been creeping higher compared to previous lows

[Odalv]

If the company go down (but it won't, because Bitcoin it's still too small) is your money they lose. What you funded in their account and all the gains you did not withdrew. Just like when it's your bank that go bankrupt. All money that it's not under your mattress is gone. The individuals running the business have no risk, it's their customers who are risking their money trusting it to a bunch of white collar gambling scammers

And that's why we have Bitcoin

+1 ... bitcoin is small (much smaller than ruin an company ... but bitcoin can extracts some money and grows :-) )