Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Its About Sharing]

That wall at 108 looks like manipulation to me. If a person with that many coins really wanted to sell on Bitstamp he would do so by smaller amounts over a period of time. By putting a massive wall there you just scare people away.

Yes, clearly (you would think). I was just mentioning that in a thread I started on a video of manipulation. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232962.0

[Richy_T]

In the grand scheme, Consider we have 3 or 4 exchanges sharing the trading evenly. What happens when only one exchange gets hit hard with a sell for example and drops the price?
Do others follow, are they unaffected, does the original exchange adjust back up, etc?

It should even out over time in ways which will depend on availability of funds. Some people will be able to move funds between exchanges and make profits that way.

[ChartBuddy]

[dexX7]

There were times, where there price diff between Bitstamp and Gox was around 5 $ over a longer timeframe, happened in both directions. And I remember a time, where BTC-E was about 10 $ cheaper. But nevertheless, the price movement was about the same. I think Gox leads, but I've never seen anything crazy where Gox could have followed, but didn't.

What really impresses me are larger sells and buys, where it seems it directs to one single person. For example the huge buy on sunday which happened on Gox, but Bitstamp instantly followed, which either implies the big guy is active on both exchanges or many smaller buyer followed that one buy. I guess, I can only speculate about what really happens.

A nice experiment would be to seperate two or more groups of (many) traders, give them the same data to start and see, if they would behave in the same way, but without knowing how the other group does. Both outcomes (they end up with the same result and or not) would tell much about the markets and trading altogether.

[rezurect]

A nice experiment would be to seperate two or more groups of (many) traders, give them the same data to start and see, if they would behave in the same way, but without knowing how the other group does. Both outcomes (they end up with the same result and or not) would tell much about the markets and trading altogether.

Logic dictates that it is an experiment which has already been done, in house by financial institutions. A public study? google fu to the rescue.

Herd behavior in trading. http://smu.edu.sg/perspectives/2012/06/26/herd-behaviour-financial-markets-do-traders-follow-crowd-or-do-their-own-thing#.UboO1eeBlFs

But for some inexpiable reason i believe, Pro traders and Bitcoiners differ fundamentally.

[Its About Sharing]

There were times, where there price diff between Bitstamp and Gox was around 5 $ over a longer timeframe, happened in both directions. And I remember a time, where BTC-E was about 10 $ cheaper. But nevertheless, the price movement was about the same. I think Gox leads, but I've never seen anything crazy where Gox could have followed, but didn't.

What really impresses me are larger sells and buys, where it seems it directs to one single person. For example the huge buy on sunday which happened on Gox, but Bitstamp instantly followed, which either implies the big guy is active on both exchanges or many smaller buyer followed that one buy. I guess, I can only speculate about what really happens.

A nice experiment would be to seperate two or more groups of (many) traders, give them the same data to start and see, if they would behave in the same way, but without knowing how the other group does. Both outcomes (they end up with the same result and or not) would tell much about the markets and trading altogether.

Any trader is probably looking at both exchanges. I would imagine if one had a decent position on Bitstamp and saw a sell off on Gox, that they might unload before others do.
Sort of a self fulfilling prophecy as well as just being a copy cat, for lack of a better word. ehehhe

[bito]

In other news: guys, time to sell. Really.

What? Has it reached $300k/mBTC already?

Almost - anyhow, I'm just trolling. You guys know i'm a long term perma-bull

Is there anyone who is not?

Those who held 100% fiat and waited for the price to drop to $2 one more time, back in 2011. Ooops  

Interesting difference with 2011, trading levels remained at new highs (ish) all the way down ( line = price, points = volume):

https://i.imgur.com/qa5eq4K.gif


But this time, fewer and fewer people are interested post-peak of the  bubble, perhaps because most folk know what's coming and don't support the price :

https://i.imgur.com/jM1Ks5y.gif

 

I'd be interested in seeing a plot of those two graphs with the right volume axis being in terms of the percentage of total minted BTC for values on the X axis.

EDIT: And also with the left and right axis normalised on each chart

[sarc]

In other news: guys, time to sell. Really.

What? Has it reached $300k/mBTC already?

Almost - anyhow, I'm just trolling. You guys know i'm a long term perma-bull

Is there anyone who is not?

Those who held 100% fiat and waited for the price to drop to $2 one more time, back in 2011. Ooops  

Interesting difference with 2011, trading levels remained at new highs (ish) all the way down ( line = price, points = volume):




But this time, fewer and fewer people are interested post-peak of the  bubble, perhaps because most folk know what's coming and don't support the price :



 

I'd be interested in seeing a plot of those two graphs with the right volume axis being in terms of the percentage of total minted BTC for values on the X axis.

come again?

[dexX7]

Logic dictates that it is an experiment which has already been done, in house by financial institutions. A public study? google fu to the rescue.

Herd behavior in trading. http://smu.edu.sg/perspectives/2012/06/26/herd-behaviour-financial-markets-do-traders-follow-crowd-or-do-their-own-thing#.UboO1eeBlFs

I'm sure there is information out there. Thanks for the resource.

[ChartBuddy]

[bito]

In other news: guys, time to sell. Really.

What? Has it reached $300k/mBTC already?

Almost - anyhow, I'm just trolling. You guys know i'm a long term perma-bull

Is there anyone who is not?

Those who held 100% fiat and waited for the price to drop to $2 one more time, back in 2011. Ooops  

Interesting difference with 2011, trading levels remained at new highs (ish) all the way down ( line = price, points = volume):

https://i.imgur.com/qa5eq4K.gif


But this time, fewer and fewer people are interested post-peak of the  bubble, perhaps because most folk know what's coming and don't support the price :

https://i.imgur.com/jM1Ks5y.gif

 

I'd be interested in seeing a plot of those two graphs with the right volume axis being in terms of the percentage of total minted BTC for values on the X axis.

come again?

I"ve only been around watching the BTC for the last 3 months, and one thing that stands out when zooming out to the full picture volumes where much higher when BTC was valued lower (and when there were less BTC minted). Now it takes less BTC from whales now to "move" the market. So maybe this is because there are more BTC in the market. Is that a good theory?

EDIT: My theory is probably wrong, but it's an interesting observation, and it would be good to see a chart that takes into account the available BTC participating in volume for such charts

EDIT2: Maybe it's a price weighted volume that I think would be more insightful.

[ThatDGuy]

I"ve only been around watching the BTC for the last 3 months, and one thing that stands out when zooming out to the full picture volumes where much higher when BTC was valued lower (and when there were less BTC minted). Now it takes less BTC from whales now to "move" the market. So maybe this is because there are more BTC in the market. Is that a good theory?

EDIT: My theory is probably wrong, but it's an interesting observation, and it would be good to see a chart that takes into account the available BTC participating in volume for such charts

It's important to remember the value required to create volume in Bitcoin exchanges.

If Bitcoin is valued at $10, then $100 can move 10BTC, but if Bitcoin is valued at $100, then $100 will only move 1BTC.

On Bitcoincharts.com, at least, if you view all data, click the checkbox on the right to show "Volume in Currency"

That will illustrate the difference.

[hlynur]

just in case somebody missed it:
    
we're going to be discussed at the world bank 6/14
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232950.0

oh gaud, its already beginning:  http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/a-new-virtual-economy-poses-new-challenges-in-fighting-child-pornography-and-child-exploitation-211404651.html

looks perhaps like some days of negative media coverage will follow?

[sarc]

I"ve only been around watching the BTC for the last 3 months, and one thing that stands out when zooming out to the full picture volumes where much higher when BTC was valued lower (and when there were less BTC minted). Now it takes less BTC from whales now to "move" the market. So maybe this is because there are more BTC in the market. Is that a good theory?

EDIT: My theory is probably wrong, but it's an interesting observation, and it would be good to see a chart that takes into account the available BTC participating in volume for such charts

you're confusing me, and that's my job...

 In terms of the relationship to the price, using % volume would change the values but wouldn't affect the temporal relationship with the price....maybe.

[Richy_T]

A nice experiment would be to seperate two or more groups of (many) traders, give them the same data to start and see, if they would behave in the same way, but without knowing how the other group does. Both outcomes (they end up with the same result and or not) would tell much about the markets and trading altogether.

It's my opinion that moving away from stocks paying dividends has done much to remove useful indicators from the market.

[bito]

I"ve only been around watching the BTC for the last 3 months, and one thing that stands out when zooming out to the full picture volumes where much higher when BTC was valued lower (and when there were less BTC minted). Now it takes less BTC from whales now to "move" the market. So maybe this is because there are more BTC in the market. Is that a good theory?

EDIT: My theory is probably wrong, but it's an interesting observation, and it would be good to see a chart that takes into account the available BTC participating in volume for such charts

It's important to remember the value required to create volume in Bitcoin exchanges.

If Bitcoin is valued at $10, then $100 can move 10BTC, but if Bitcoin is valued at $100, then $100 will only move 1BTC.

On Bitcoincharts.com, at least, if you view all data, click the checkbox on the right to show "Volume in Currency"

That will illustrate the difference.

Yeah, that makes more sense, I did do a second edit suggesting that this might be a factor.

I think the chart would be interesting plotting that value on the right axis, with both charts having their logarithmic axis normalised (as they're not really the same charts atm).

I"ve only been around watching the BTC for the last 3 months, and one thing that stands out when zooming out to the full picture volumes where much higher when BTC was valued lower (and when there were less BTC minted). Now it takes less BTC from whales now to "move" the market. So maybe this is because there are more BTC in the market. Is that a good theory?

EDIT: My theory is probably wrong, but it's an interesting observation, and it would be good to see a chart that takes into account the available BTC participating in volume for such charts

you're confusing me, and that's my job...

 In terms of the relationship to the price, using % volume would change the values but wouldn't affect the temporal relationship with the price....maybe.

It's late for me and I should have thought a little more before commenting. Off to bed.

[ChartBuddy]

[EuroTrash]

Is it just me or this canyon has gotten a tad steeper if compared to few days ago?

[lucas.sev]

Is it just me or this canyon has gotten a tad steeper if compared to few days ago?

Is that a serious question? Is it just me or is it June 13th while few days ago the day could be expressed with a single digit? Fuck, I'm so observative.

[rdsc]

It's just lo-fi pattern recognition, but every time things have flattened out like this in the last 3 weeks we've dropped - this is tracking Goomboos 10/21
http://s11.postimg.org/d8aicwl83/Screen_Shot017.jpg

Looking forward to the weekend